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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 16, 2019 15:56:21 GMT
It'll depend a bit. Remember that Martin Horwood stood in 2017 and will have had a personal vote, while Chalk has incumbency since, so it's not implausible that there might be a fall in LD VI and rise in Con. It's a worry that the Lab vote share has risen since it was largely that which kept Chalk in last time in the face of an overall swing back to LDs. But it may depend on the campaign machine and I think the Lab share is vulnerable to both a tactical squeeze and disillusion with Corbyn over Brexit - this is one of the places where I think a lot of the Lab vote will be quite young and Remainer-y. I don't know Cheltenham well is it particularly young. I can't cite stats, but in parts, yes. It has a fair sized university presence (Univ. of Gloucetsershire mainly former GLOSCAT) and generally enough employers and enough life in the place (it's always really been a party town) so that people aren't on the first train out.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 16, 2019 16:01:21 GMT
I have friends in Cheltenham and know the seat well. The poll seems about right - in fact, it wouldn't surprise me if the Lib Dem vote fell further at the expense of both Labour and Tory. This is a very different seat to Bath and Oxford West and Abingdon - the bedrock of Lib Dem support in Cheltenham has always been the WWC areas such as Up Hatherley, Swindon Village, Hester's Way and Springbank, rather than the wealthier, more Remainey areas such as Battledown and Montpellier which always (and continue to) be strongly Conservative. Whilst the local Lib Dems are still well organised and continue do very well in local elections, this is the kind of place in which their Brexit stance is totally counterproductive for their prospects of regaining the seat - compounded by the loss of Martin Horwood whose personal popularity in the Brexit-voting wards kept them competitive in the 2017 general election. I think results in the seat will soon resemble similar constituencies such as Tunbridge Wells or Guildford. Yes, that's the problem. But worth noting that the PPC used to be councillor for Park, which on your analysis should be a safe Tory ward.
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iain
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Post by iain on Jan 16, 2019 18:35:13 GMT
I have friends in Cheltenham and know the seat well. The poll seems about right - in fact, it wouldn't surprise me if the Lib Dem vote fell further at the expense of both Labour and Tory. This is a very different seat to Bath and Oxford West and Abingdon - the bedrock of Lib Dem support in Cheltenham has always been the WWC areas such as Up Hatherley, Swindon Village, Hester's Way and Springbank, rather than the wealthier, more Remainey areas such as Battledown and Montpellier which always (and continue to) be strongly Conservative. Whilst the local Lib Dems are still well organised and continue do very well in local elections, this is the kind of place in which their Brexit stance is totally counterproductive for their prospects of regaining the seat - compounded by the loss of Martin Horwood whose personal popularity in the Brexit-voting wards kept them competitive in the 2017 general election. I think results in the seat will soon resemble similar constituencies such as Tunbridge Wells or Guildford. Its also worth remembering that the initial LibDem surge happened because the Tory candidate was black. The LibDems also took Chippenham in 2010 despute a very good Conservative candidate, Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones. Just happens that he is also known as the Black Farmer This is largely a myth. Some swings from in Con-LD marginals (all Con -> LD) in 1992: North Cornwall - 6.5% Taunton - 6.2% St Ives - 5.8% Cheltenham - 5.2% Somerton & Frome - 5.1% Bath - 5.0% North Devon - 4.8% As you can see, Cheltenham was largely in line.
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iain
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Post by iain on Jan 16, 2019 18:41:38 GMT
I have friends in Cheltenham and know the seat well. The poll seems about right - in fact, it wouldn't surprise me if the Lib Dem vote fell further at the expense of both Labour and Tory. This is a very different seat to Bath and Oxford West and Abingdon - the bedrock of Lib Dem support in Cheltenham has always been the WWC areas such as Up Hatherley, Swindon Village, Hester's Way and Springbank, rather than the wealthier, more Remainey areas such as Battledown and Montpellier which always (and continue to) be strongly Conservative. Whilst the local Lib Dems are still well organised and continue do very well in local elections, this is the kind of place in which their Brexit stance is totally counterproductive for their prospects of regaining the seat - compounded by the loss of Martin Horwood whose personal popularity in the Brexit-voting wards kept them competitive in the 2017 general election. I think results in the seat will soon resemble similar constituencies such as Tunbridge Wells or Guildford. I do not agree that this poll looks like a likely outcome in an election. Cheltenham is a fairly similar seat to Bath, though with a higher Tory floor. While you are correct that, broadly speaking, more Lib Dem areas in the seat were more likely to vote leave, you clearly do not know the seat that well if you think Up Hatherley is working class, whilst Swindon Village (which we know voted remain) is not even in the constituency. The Lib Dems also do pretty well in Montpellier, and there are significant LD-remain voting areas in wards such as College, and other areas in the south of the town. The idea that results here will soon resemble places like Guildford and, even more ridiculously, Tunbridge Wells, is pretty laughable.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2019 22:26:09 GMT
This isn't quite constitency polling. It's data mapping based on demographics, studies, etc. like MRP without the huge data samples to crunch
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Jan 17, 2019 9:21:24 GMT
I have friends in Cheltenham and know the seat well. The poll seems about right - in fact, it wouldn't surprise me if the Lib Dem vote fell further at the expense of both Labour and Tory. This is a very different seat to Bath and Oxford West and Abingdon - the bedrock of Lib Dem support in Cheltenham has always been the WWC areas such as Up Hatherley, Swindon Village, Hester's Way and Springbank, rather than the wealthier, more Remainey areas such as Battledown and Montpellier which always (and continue to) be strongly Conservative. Whilst the local Lib Dems are still well organised and continue do very well in local elections, this is the kind of place in which their Brexit stance is totally counterproductive for their prospects of regaining the seat - compounded by the loss of Martin Horwood whose personal popularity in the Brexit-voting wards kept them competitive in the 2017 general election. I think results in the seat will soon resemble similar constituencies such as Tunbridge Wells or Guildford. I do not agree that this poll looks like a likely outcome in an election. Cheltenham is a fairly similar seat to Bath, though with a higher Tory floor. While you are correct that, broadly speaking, more Lib Dem areas in the seat were more likely to vote leave, you clearly do not know the seat that well if you think Up Hatherley is working class, whilst Swindon Village (which we know voted remain) is not even in the constituency. The Lib Dems also do pretty well in Montpellier, and there are significant LD-remain voting areas in wards such as College, and other areas in the south of the town. The idea that results here will soon resemble places like Guildford and, even more ridiculously, Tunbridge Wells, is pretty laughable. It’s also not at all true that Horwood’s popularity/strength was in the West part of town. The Springbank/Hester’s Way area is the most LD but those areas were the real strength of Nigel Jones. Horwood’s personal strength were in the affluent Charlton Park/Leckampton part of town, which is why he’s now a Leckampton councillor.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2019 18:58:43 GMT
Rolling average next general election polling, via Wikipedia. though a tad out of date hasnt been updated since 12th of March
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hedgehog
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Post by hedgehog on Oct 29, 2019 17:32:20 GMT
Here's a Survation poll for Cambridge, much as you'd expect, showing strong Lib Dem and Green performance and a collapse for Labour.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 2, 2019 17:36:57 GMT
Here's a Survation poll for Cambridge, much as you'd expect, showing strong Lib Dem and Green performance and a collapse for Labour. Actually, this early in the campaign, I would be quite optimistic if I was Daniel Zeichner as it isn't unsaveable in this constituency poll, which are notoriously dicey at the best of times
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 2, 2019 18:30:03 GMT
Survation are giving lots of hostages to fortune with all these constituency polls. If they turn out to be way off, their reputation may be shredded.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 2, 2019 18:32:23 GMT
It shouldn't be. A poll is a snapshot, not a forecast - especially this far out.
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Post by casualobserver on Nov 2, 2019 20:59:31 GMT
David’s right about the “hostages to fortune”. Survation’s Labour figure in Cambridge is ludicrously understated.
If Constituency pollsters are not to suffer reputational damage they’ll need to produce more accurate opinion polls for each constituency they report on much closer to Election Day itself.
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Post by lancastrian on Nov 2, 2019 21:12:19 GMT
If the actual constituency polls weren't unreliable enough, someone on Twitter is posting fake polls
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 4, 2019 13:22:20 GMT
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 4, 2019 13:25:53 GMT
About what I would expect right now, but it is very close this early on. Should be a fun campaign down there.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 4, 2019 13:28:59 GMT
And not commissioned by us, either. Excellent.
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cogload
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I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Nov 4, 2019 14:38:10 GMT
I feel a barchart coming on...
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Nov 4, 2019 15:21:20 GMT
And not commissioned by us, either. Excellent. yes it was according to Survation twitter.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2019 15:47:49 GMT
It was commissioned by the lib dems Attachments:
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 4, 2019 16:00:26 GMT
I feel a barchart coming on... Take some Alka Seltzer.
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