Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2014 7:49:58 GMT
Uplands
Ind (May) 671
Lab 553
LD 215
Green 179
Ind (Dwan)158
Con 154
PC 104
TUSC 31
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2014 7:58:38 GMT
Admittedly, if Uplands was a Green gain I might have to seriously revise my whole opinion of the Welsh Green party. Didn't quite come to this, although not shamed.  |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Nov 21, 2014 9:09:01 GMT
Swansea:
Ind May: 32.5% (+32.5, -0.3 on LD 2012)
Lab: 26.8% (-12.4)
LD: 10.4% (-22.4)
Grn: 8.7% (-9.8)
I@S: 7.7% (+7.7)
Con: 7.5% (-2.1)
PC: 5.0% (+5.0)
TUSC: 1.5% (+1.5)
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Post by marksenior on Nov 21, 2014 9:18:54 GMT
Admittedly, if Uplands was a Green gain I might have to seriously revise my whole opinion of the Welsh Green party. Didn't quite come to this, although not shamed. The Green % fell by half despite all the hype . |
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 21, 2014 9:34:09 GMT
Thanks. You'd expect this to be the best part of the seat for the Tories if it's rural. So therefore if they only polled 33% there you'd expect them to do less well in the constituency as a whole. No, one of the constituency polls before the byelection broke down the results by area, and the rural peninsula section was clearly indicated as the best for UKIP. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2014 10:08:29 GMT
Didn't quite come to this, although not shamed. The Green % fell by half despite all the hype . Fair point |
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 21, 2014 11:27:07 GMT
Medway, Peninsula - UKIP gain from Conservative| Party | 2014 votes | 2014 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | UKIP | 2,850 | 48.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | +39.9% | +39.2% | | Conservative | 1,965 | 33.3% | -20.9% | -19.7% | -13.7% | -12.8% | | Labour | 716 | 12.1% | -8.5% | -8.8% | -0.6% | -0.1% | | Green | 314 | 5.3% | -2.1% | -2.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 60 | 1.0% | -5.3% | -5.6% | -3.9% | -2.3% | | English Democrats |
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| -11.3% | -11.5% |
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| -27.0% | -29.3% | | Total votes | 5,905 |
| 125% | 134% | 116% | 126% |
Swing not meaningful Stockport, Bramhall South & Woodford - Conservative hold | Party | 2014 B votes | 2014 B share | since 2014 | since 2012 | since 2011 | since 2010 | | Conservative | 2,080 | 53.2% | +8.2% | +3.7% | -1.0% | +4.4% | | Liberal Democrat | 1,502 | 38.4% | +5.3% | +12.2% | +9.5% | -2.9% | | Green | 197 | 5.0% | from nowhere | -0.2% | +1.6% | +2.8% | | Labour | 132 | 3.4% | -5.5% | -6.8% | -5.9% | -1.6% | | UKIP |
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| -13.0% | -8.9% | -4.1% | -2.8% | | Total votes | 3,911 |
| 94% | 102% | 76% | 51% |
Swing Liberal Democrat to Conservative ~1½% since May 2014 & ~3½% since 2010 but Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~4¼% since 2012 & 5¼% since 2011 Swansea, Uplands - Independent gain from Labour| Party | 2014 votes | 2014 share | since 2012 "top" | since 2012 "average" | since 2008 "top" | since 2008 "average" | | Independent May * | 671 | 32.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 533 | 26.1% | -13.1% | -14.5% | +7.8% | +6.3% | | Liberal Democrat | 215 | 10.5% | -22.2% | -20.4% | -30.3% | -30.9% | | Green | 179 | 8.8% | -9.7% | -9.5% | -3.8% | -2.3% | | Independent Dwan | 158 | 7.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 154 | 7.5% | -2.1% | -2.9% | -5.7% | -5.0% | | Plaid Cymru | 104 | 5.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -3.9% | -5.2% | TUSAC
| 31 | 1.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Previous Independents | |
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| -6.1% | -5.0% | | Total votes | 2,045 |
| 62% | 69% | 46% | 52% |
* Independent May was the leading Liberal Democrat in 2012 and topped the poll as a Liberal Democrat in 2008 and 2004 - his share at the byelection was almost identical to his share as the top Liberal Democrat in 2012 Swing not meaningful
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 21, 2014 11:37:10 GMT
Variouis sites have the Labour vote in Swansea, Uplands as 553 but the Council's website has it as 533.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306
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Post by maxque on Nov 21, 2014 12:17:42 GMT
Variouis sites have the Labour vote in Swansea, Uplands as 553 but the Council's website has it as 533. The twitter report last night had 533, too. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 21, 2014 12:37:15 GMT
I've none I'm afraid, but I'm working on this logic: I can't see Tories coming from far beyond the local vicinity. We had people in from all over the place - furthest away I met was Knowsley (only relatively local, myself). You're right though, the Lib Dems threw the SPAM SPAM SPAM sink at it. I am surprised- clearly things have changed since I was involved. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 21, 2014 12:39:57 GMT
Can't say I'm surprised about Labour being fourth. Their candidate wasn't local (from Heald Green). Stockport: Con: 53.2% (+8.2) LD: 38.4% (+5.3) Grn: 5.0% (+5.0) Lab: 3.4% (-5.5) Well, I was indeed proven wrong. Surprised that Labour picked someone from Heald Green, maybe it's practice before another demoralising defeat as a candidate against the entrenched might of the Ratepayers. |
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Post by gmobserver1 on Nov 21, 2014 12:57:14 GMT
Can't say I'm surprised about Labour being fourth. Their candidate wasn't local (from Heald Green). Stockport: Con: 53.2% (+8.2) LD: 38.4% (+5.3) Grn: 5.0% (+5.0) Lab: 3.4% (-5.5) Well, I was indeed proven wrong. Surprised that Labour picked someone from Heald Green, maybe it's practice before another demoralising defeat as a candidate against the entrenched might of the Ratepayers. Heald Green has a common easterly boundary with Bramhall South and the Labour candidate lives close to it. The Lib Dem candidate did not live in the ward either but in another part of Bramhall to the north. In any case since when has it been a pre-requisite for candidates to live in the ward. The Council leader represents an area in central Stockport and lives in Marple. |
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Post by Philip Davies on Nov 21, 2014 13:06:49 GMT
Well, I was indeed proven wrong. Surprised that Labour picked someone from Heald Green, maybe it's practice before another demoralising defeat as a candidate against the entrenched might of the Ratepayers. Heald Green has a common easterly boundary with Bramhall South and the Labour candidate lives close to it. The Lib Dem candidate did not live in the ward either but in another part of Bramhall to the north. In any case since when has it been a pre-requisite for candidates to live in the ward. The Council leader represents an area in central Stockport and lives in Marple. No Cheadle Hulme South is in between Heald Green and Bramhall South and Woodford. |
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Post by thirdchill on Nov 21, 2014 17:43:11 GMT
Can't say I'm surprised about Labour being fourth. Their candidate wasn't local (from Heald Green). Stockport: Con: 53.2% (+8.2) LD: 38.4% (+5.3) Grn: 5.0% (+5.0) Lab: 3.4% (-5.5) Well, I was indeed proven wrong. Surprised that Labour picked someone from Heald Green, maybe it's practice before another demoralising defeat as a candidate against the entrenched might of the Ratepayers. The Lib Dems still hold up very well there, despite the fact they've not won that ward at least in the last 10 years. It shows that Cheadle will be very tough for us to win, despite the lib dems national poll ratings. |
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Post by marksenior on Nov 21, 2014 18:09:31 GMT
Well, I was indeed proven wrong. Surprised that Labour picked someone from Heald Green, maybe it's practice before another demoralising defeat as a candidate against the entrenched might of the Ratepayers. The Lib Dems still hold up very well there, despite the fact they've not won that ward at least in the last 10 years. It shows that Cheadle will be very tough for us to win, despite the lib dems national poll ratings. The Lib Dems have never won Bramhall South . The ward was only created in 2004 . Previously the Bramhall seats were East and West rather than North and South . Heald Green has only had Independent councillors for at least 15 years probably much longer . |
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maxque
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Posts: 9,306
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Post by maxque on Nov 21, 2014 21:36:11 GMT
Well, I was indeed proven wrong. Surprised that Labour picked someone from Heald Green, maybe it's practice before another demoralising defeat as a candidate against the entrenched might of the Ratepayers. Heald Green has a common easterly boundary with Bramhall South and the Labour candidate lives close to it. The Lib Dem candidate did not live in the ward either but in another part of Bramhall to the north. In any case since when has it been a pre-requisite for candidates to live in the ward. The Council leader represents an area in central Stockport and lives in Marple. It's not a pre-requisite, but, let's be honest, it's easy to any opponent to call her an "outsider", someone "not from Bramhall" and unless she works in Bramhall, she can't use her profile in the community to help herself to get votes. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2014 22:15:15 GMT
Heald Green has a common easterly boundary with Bramhall South and the Labour candidate lives close to it. The Lib Dem candidate did not live in the ward either but in another part of Bramhall to the north. In any case since when has it been a pre-requisite for candidates to live in the ward. The Council leader represents an area in central Stockport and lives in Marple. It's not a pre-requisite, but, let's be honest, it's easy to any opponent to call her an "outsider", someone "not from Bramhall" and unless she works in Bramhall, she can't use her profile in the community to help herself to get votes. You're right Mark, the Independent Ratepayer Councillors have represented Heald Green throughout the Metropolitan era. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 22, 2014 9:14:58 GMT
Heald Green has a common easterly boundary with Bramhall South and the Labour candidate lives close to it. The Lib Dem candidate did not live in the ward either but in another part of Bramhall to the north. In any case since when has it been a pre-requisite for candidates to live in the ward. The Council leader represents an area in central Stockport and lives in Marple. It's not a pre-requisite, but, let's be honest, it's easy to any opponent to call her an "outsider", someone "not from Bramhall" and unless she works in Bramhall, she can't use her profile in the community to help herself to get votes. This is a factor of varying importance depending on the kind of area. IN some rural ward in Lincolnshire it can be far more important than party label whereas in other areas it barely registers. I should have thought a slice of middle-class suburbia such as this would tend very much toward the latter kind of area. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 22, 2014 9:49:31 GMT
It's not a pre-requisite, but, let's be honest, it's easy to any opponent to call her an "outsider", someone "not from Bramhall" and unless she works in Bramhall, she can't use her profile in the community to help herself to get votes. You're right Mark, the Independent Ratepayer Councillors have represented Heald Green throughout the Metropolitan era. In fact, the Ratepayers first had a local councillor in 1929- can't be that many minor parties/ratepayers outfits with such longevity. |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Nov 22, 2014 18:46:43 GMT
Epsom and Ewell Busybodies can't be far off. Has the council there ever been controlled by anyone else?
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