Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2014 12:58:59 GMT
Have you some inside knowledge? I've none I'm afraid, but I'm working on this logic: 1. The Lib Dem vote has held up remarkably well in recent years and Mark Hunter is very popular locally, and the legacy of Patsy Calton (and arguably Mike Winstanley even) remains strong. 2. I can imagine every Lib Dem activist in Cheadle and Hazel Grove descending on the seat, I can't see Tories coming from far beyond the local vicinity. The Stockport Lib Dem footsoldiers are very keen and I've been aware of them turning up in Trafford wards before to help, something that was never reciprocated when I was involved in Trafford Conservatives. Boots on the ground will make a big difference. 3. The lack of a UKIP candidate means that there is unlikely to be a candidate who draws support away from all parties equally- and therefore, in a throwback to pre-2010, I can see disillusioned Conservative voters either switching to the Lib Dems or switching to Labour in sufficient numbers to drag the Tory vote down and hand the ward to the Lib Dems. 4. The profile of the ward would indicate that even with a UKIP candidate standing, they wouldn't have seen anything like the surge of votes that they might have done had this been even a couple of miles up the road. The closest to inside knowledge I've got is purely anecdotal knowledge from knowing the patch fairly well (as I imagine you do as well)- there's just not the hostility to the Lib Dems that there is in some other areas round there, and Stockport does like to do its own thing! Come Thursday of course, I will be proven spectacularly wrong. Going back through the thread, I note that thirdchill has possibly come to similar conclusions. I can see the logic in your argument, not least that this is no great shakes a seat for UKIP, but this ward has been trending from the Lib Dems for a while and is only strong for them in a very good year. The Tories will be throwing everything at what has become one of only two reliable wards for them in recent years. Strong campaigning teams don't always win elections, as the Labour team in Rochester and Strood are going to discover tomorrow. Bramhall has always been a real stretch for the Lib Dems and I would be really surprised if they gain it. Then again, life is full of surprises. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Nov 19, 2014 22:22:27 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 20, 2014 21:33:49 GMT
I seem to recall the old Chester District Council had one massive ward returning loads of councillors. When I first got into politics Wycombe District had six member wards. |
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 20, 2014 22:39:53 GMT
I seem to recall the old Chester District Council had one massive ward returning loads of councillors. When I first got into politics Wycombe District had six member wards. Cannot remember precisely but some of the old Middlesbrough wards, eg Acklam, had six or even seven seats elected at the same time back in the 70's. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2014 23:05:41 GMT
Swansea: Indy gain.
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 20, 2014 23:15:35 GMT
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Post by Ben Walker on Nov 20, 2014 23:18:08 GMT
Peter Nicholas May
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Nov 20, 2014 23:28:24 GMT
Not Peter Barker Howard May?
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Post by marksenior on Nov 21, 2014 0:11:03 GMT
Bramhall South result Con hold
Con 2080 LD 1502 Green 197 Lab 132
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Nov 21, 2014 0:25:25 GMT
Can't say I'm surprised about Labour being fourth. Their candidate wasn't local (from Heald Green).
Stockport:
Con: 53.2% (+8.2)
LD: 38.4% (+5.3)
Grn: 5.0% (+5.0)
Lab: 3.4% (-5.5)
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Post by lbarnes on Nov 21, 2014 0:41:53 GMT
I seem to recall the old Chester District Council had one massive ward returning loads of councillors. Trinity ward in Chester used to return 11 councillors for the first couple of electoral cycles after the authority was established in the early '70s.
The town of Haltemprice in the Beverley District Council had one ward of 12 members, one of 10 and another of 9. There were also several other authorities with wards in double figures - Ribble Valley, Surrey Heath, Chelmsford and Slough among them.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 21, 2014 3:23:06 GMT
MEDWAY Peninsula
UKIP gain from Conservative
Christopher Glenn Irvine (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 2,850
Ronald Philip Sands (The Conservative Party Candidate) 1,965
Peter John Tungate (Labour Party) 716
Clive Bryn Malcolm Gregory (Green Party) 314
Christopher Sams (Liberal Democrat) 60
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Nov 21, 2014 3:27:12 GMT
Medway:
UKIP: 48.3% (+48.3)
Con: 33.3% (-20.9)
Lab: 12.1% (-8.6)
Grn: 5.3% (-2.1)
LD: 1.0% (-5.3)
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 21, 2014 3:41:48 GMT
Medway: UKIP: 48.3% (+48.3) Con: 33.3% (-20.9) Lab: 12.1% (-8.6) Grn: 5.3% (-2.1) LD: 1.0% (-5.3) How does this division/ward compare demographically to the Rochester & Strood constituency? |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Nov 21, 2014 3:42:42 GMT
In Uplands, the Independent May won 671 to 533 over Labour, apparently, but no numbers for the other candidates.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Nov 21, 2014 3:45:17 GMT
Medway: UKIP: 48.3% (+48.3) Con: 33.3% (-20.9) Lab: 12.1% (-8.6) Grn: 5.3% (-2.1) LD: 1.0% (-5.3) How does this division/ward compare demographically to the Rochester & Strood constituency? I would suspect it's not very representative. Peninsula covers most of the Hoo peninsula, which is Hoo and around 6-7 small villages. Probably the only truly rural part of Rochester & Strood. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Nov 21, 2014 3:51:31 GMT
Medway: UKIP: 48.3% (+48.3) Con: 33.3% (-20.9) Lab: 12.1% (-8.6) Grn: 5.3% (-2.1) LD: 1.0% (-5.3) How does this division/ward compare demographically to the Rochester & Strood constituency? Using a BBC article from today about demographics of Rochester & Strood and the Census Statistics of the Boundary Mapper: Legend: Rochester & Strood/Peninsula Over 65 years old: 15%/18.4% Unemployment: 4.5%/4.0% White ethnicity: 90.4%/94.7% No qualifications: 22%/27.5% So, better statistics for UKIP in Peninsula + impopular project at the council level in that ward (they very recently gave planning permission to build 5000 houses at Lodge Hill). |
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 21, 2014 3:54:47 GMT
Thanks. You'd expect this to be the best part of the seat for the Tories if it's rural. So therefore if they only polled 33% there you'd expect them to do less well in the constituency as a whole.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Nov 21, 2014 4:07:15 GMT
Thanks. You'd expect this to be the best part of the seat for the Tories if it's rural. So therefore if they only polled 33% there you'd expect them to do less well in the constituency as a whole. At the 2011 local election, it was the 2nd best Tory ward in Rochester & Strood. The best ward was Cuxton & Halling (an underpopulated one-seater south of Strood, based on those two villages), but it's not very populated or significant. |
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Clarko
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Post by Clarko on Nov 21, 2014 7:47:45 GMT
Have you some inside knowledge? I've none I'm afraid, but I'm working on this logic: I can't see Tories coming from far beyond the local vicinity. We had people in from all over the place - furthest away I met was Knowsley (only relatively local, myself). You're right though, the Lib Dems threw the kitchen sink at it. |
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