The Azure Main 1982 election

[iainbhx]

"Arose from the Azure Main" is a little gedankenexperiment of mine which I have been writing for the last two years, I haven't as yet given up the day job. The whole horror of it is contained in the Alien Space Bats section of alternatehistory.com*, it is approaching its 800th update and has won a couple of awards. There is even a 900+ page comment thread!

The premise of it is that it is an "Island in the Sea of Time" style of event, where something from one time has been dropped into another time from which there are consequence. In this case, the United Kingdom, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man have been taken from February 1980 to February 1730 and Azure the story of the consequences of this. It is, of course, not entirely serious and there is a great deal of personal amusement involved in it.

The reason why I place it here is that Azure is about to have its first general election in November 1982 and I thought I would cross post the actual election posts here. It is a slightly unusual election because the 1983 Boundary Changes have not taken place due to the rather significant changes in the electorate, so we are left with the old 1974 boundaries plus the additional seat of The Channel Islands (they were annexed).

There has been little electoral change since The Dislocation, following Viscount Fawsley's elevation to the Peerage on becoming Foreign Secretary, the Liberals did win the Chelmsford by-election, but the Tories held Totnes despite the troublesome imprisonment of Ray Mawby and all other seats have been held by the respective parties except for Belfast East, which was regained by the UUP after Peter Robinson and Ian Paisley were banged up for invading the Kingdom of Ireland (Paisley's wife held North Antrim). With Woy dislocated in Brussels, there was no SDP and the Tories held Hillhead and Crosby with some ease. Local elections have seen less of a swing back to Labour than in Our Time Line and the Tories have minority control of the GLC still.

There will even be a map or two.

* Only readable by registered members, I'm afraid.

[johnloony]

I don't get what the "taken from 1980 to 1730" bit means. The rest of your message seems to be talking about what might have happened if the general election had been in 1982 instead of 1983, but has 1730 got to do with it?

[iainbhx]

I would suggest reading the second paragraph again.

This is an Island in the Sea of Time scenario, the United Kingdom and the Isle of Man have been taken from 1980 and placed into the world of 1730. Margaret Thatcher may be Prime Minister, but Louis XV reigns at Versailles, the Maratha Confederacy threatens British Bombay and the Spanish have found out how to lose an entire navy in a morning.

[greatkingrat]

Oct 17, 2014 6:49:03 GMT iainbhx said:

I would suggest reading the second paragraph again.

This is an Island in the Sea of Time scenario, the United Kingdom and the Isle of Man have been taken from 1980 and placed into the world of 1730. Margaret Thatcher may be Prime Minister, but Louis XV reigns at Versailles, the Maratha Confederacy threatens British Bombay and the Spanish have found out how to lose an entire navy in a morning.

Surely Britain would just win any war easily due to overwhelming technological superiority?

[Devil Wincarnate]

Oct 17, 2014 10:56:19 GMT greatkingrat said:

Oct 17, 2014 6:49:03 GMT iainbhx said:

I would suggest reading the second paragraph again.

This is an Island in the Sea of Time scenario, the United Kingdom and the Isle of Man have been taken from 1980 and placed into the world of 1730. Margaret Thatcher may be Prime Minister, but Louis XV reigns at Versailles, the Maratha Confederacy threatens British Bombay and the Spanish have found out how to lose an entire navy in a morning.

Surely Britain would just win any war easily due to overwhelming technological superiority?

Remember the kind of cars we were making at the time...

[iainbhx]

Oct 17, 2014 10:56:19 GMT greatkingrat said:

Oct 17, 2014 6:49:03 GMT iainbhx said:

I would suggest reading the second paragraph again.

This is an Island in the Sea of Time scenario, the United Kingdom and the Isle of Man have been taken from 1980 and placed into the world of 1730. Margaret Thatcher may be Prime Minister, but Louis XV reigns at Versailles, the Maratha Confederacy threatens British Bombay and the Spanish have found out how to lose an entire navy in a morning.

Surely Britain would just win any war easily due to overwhelming technological superiority?

Absolutely, as long as they can get the men and materiel there. Armies in India, for instance tend to be very large.

The whole of Europe is terrified of the British after what they did to Spain and bemused at how Britain let them off so easily. After all they could have demanded money and rich possessions, not useless places like the Rio Plata, Tejas and California.

[Arthur Figgis]

Oct 17, 2014 11:18:00 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Oct 17, 2014 10:56:19 GMT greatkingrat said:

Surely Britain would just win any war easily due to overwhelming technological superiority?

Remember the kind of cars we were making at the time...

About the same as what India are making now.

[greenchristian]

Looking forward to this. I'm currently catching up on the story so far. Binge-reading has put me on page 7 of 20 on the story posts only thread (I'm up to October 1980 - 8 months after the dislocation).

And I feel sorry for all those Spanish sailors.

Incidentally, the story has an entry on TV Tropes (warning: extremely addictive website).

[iainbhx]

Oct 18, 2014 8:31:15 GMT greenchristian said:

And I feel sorry for all those Spanish sailors.

Incidentally, the story has an entry on TV Tropes (warning: extremely addictive website).

I actually didn't know someone had done a TV Tropes entry.

[iainbhx]

from The British General Election of 1982

There was the largest ever number of polls for a general election during the 1982 campaign. Some 53 national polls were produced from seven different companies with a final flurry produced on the evening of November the 2nd. There were also a number of unreleased private polls done for the Conservative party, neither Labour or the Liberals used private polling, although a private poll was conducted in Cambridge - all three major parties claimed it was not them.

The polls were mainly conducted to a sample size of around 1,000, although Gallup insisted on using 2,000 and Audience Selection samples were usually more like 900. Only Audience Selection carried out telephone-only polls, with Gallup and MORI having some telephone input. The increased use of telephone polling was studied carefully as it was felt to have sample bias against those with no telephone at home.

There were no great changes in the polls, every single one showed a Conservative lead and in a miracle of consistency 48 out of 53 showed the Liberals getting between 19% and 21%, the leads in the various polls ranged from a 3% Con lead in the second week of the campaign by ORC to a huge 14% Con lead on the 25 of November which was widely believed to be a rogue poll.

The final UK wide polls were

ORC: Con 45 Lab 34 Lib 19
NOP: Con 44 Lab 36 Lib 18
Audience Selection: Con 43 Lab 34 Lib 21
Harris: Con 45 Lab 33 Lib 20
Gallup: Con 43.5 Lab 34.5 Lib 20
MARPLAN: Con 44 Lab 34 Lib 20
MORI: Con 42 Lab 36 Lib 20

There was more limited polling in Scotland, only the Herald and the Scotsman actually ran Scottish polls - although the Record did commission one and chose not to print it. Each of the Scottish polls showed a considerable Labour lead of between 7% and 10% and the SNP slashed around to 5% of the Scottish vote. There was one opinion poll performed in Wales for the Western Mail, as is common with Welsh opinion polls, it was widely at variance with the actual result. There was also one attempted at a regional poll by the Yorkshire Post (Lab 43 Con 38 Lib 17) - with a sample size of 500, it was widely disregarded as being inaccurate by experts, but it proved to be as accurate as the main polls.

There were also a number of constituency polls published in local newspapers, they ranged from professional ones done in London by MORI for the Evening Standard to ones conducted by a handful of students in a shopping centre for the Birmingham Evening Mail. Less than half of them even got the right winner never mind an accurate result.

However, the biggest test of the polling companies were the two exit polls, one for the BBC and one for ITN/Capital Radio.

[J.G.Harston]

Oct 17, 2014 11:55:22 GMT iainbhx said:

The whole of Europe is terrified of the British after what they did to Spain and bemused at how Britain let them off so easily. After all they could have demanded money and rich possessions, not useless places like the Rio Plata, Tejas and California.

I take it that's *UK thinking: in OTL there was gold/oil in them thar hills, we'll pick them up for a penny while nobody here yet knows what they're worth.

[iainbhx]

Oct 18, 2014 21:34:29 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Oct 17, 2014 11:55:22 GMT iainbhx said:

The whole of Europe is terrified of the British after what they did to Spain and bemused at how Britain let them off so easily. After all they could have demanded money and rich possessions, not useless places like the Rio Plata, Tejas and California.

I take it that's *UK thinking: in OTL there was gold/oil in them thar hills, we'll pick them up for a penny while nobody here yet knows what they're worth.

To be fair, we split Tejas with the French.

[iainbhx]

BBC1 - Election 82
4th November 1982, 10pm

David Dimbleby: Good evening and welcome to our election results programme. From now until 4 in the morning we will be bringing you the fastest service of results, analysis and comment from the politicians.

Elections are a struggle for power, battles if you like and this one was at the time of the Prime Minister's choosing, she could have waited another 18 months. But her choice appears to have paid off, if our figures are right, she is going to have a majority of around 50 over all other parties in the New House of Commons. That's a small increase on the last election, but there has been an increase of six seats, five of which are in Northern Ireland. The Conservatives are going to be around 350, Labour around 250, the Liberals around 16 and the other parties around 22.

If elections are a battle, our job tonight is to try and pick our way across the battlefield to discover what has happened to victor and to vanquished. Peter Snow will be on hand with his amazing electronic gadgetry to analyse how we've been voting today as the results start to come in.

And Robin Day, without whom election campaigns in Britain can no longer be conducted, is here as a matter of course and will have with him a number of leading politicians.

Robin Day: I am, of course, nothing but a humble spear-carrier in the great democratic army and in that capacity, I have the first of several such trios during the night, up in Manchester we have Mr Cyril Smith, whilst here in the studio we have the Right Honourable Mr Michael Heseltine who is the Secretary of State for the Colonies and Mr Neil Kinn-ock whose warning speech was one of the more interesting parts of an otherwise frequently pedestrian campaign. David.

David Dimbleby: And out and about tonight, in the cities, in the country, at the party headquarters with the party leaders are our top reporters, to bring back the news, the interviews, with winner and with losers. We are many counts, including the traditional counts we think are going to win the race to be first and give us the first real results. It seems likely that that race is between Guildford, Torbay and Cheltenham and we have reporters at each of them.

So lets' go first to Guildford and join Selina Scott

Selina Scott: Well hello, David, it has been a cool but dry day here in Guildford and the turnout has been predicted to be very high indeed around 80%, on the floor there is frenetic activity from the counters and supervisors. Guildford, of course, aims to declare first, something it has done three times already. The firm favourite is David Howell, he is one of Mrs Thatcher's bright young men and tipped for promotion after the election. He's defending a 20,000 majority. Well, this is Guildford tonight and I'll be back later with the declaration, meanwhile lets go over to Valerie Singleton in Torbay.

Valerie Singleton: Good evening and welcome to Torbay on the lovely south coast of Devon, this is a seat which has been held by a Conservative Sir Frederic Bennett for the last 28 years. Well, if Guildford think they are going to be first tonight, they could just be proved wrong, because Torbay are doing all they can to win this race to be first to declare. The turnout is about the same as it was this time in 1979 at around 75%. Now let's go over to the other seat in the race to be first, Cheltenham and Linda Alexander.

Linda Alexander: Thank you, Valerie, Cheltenham is a traditional Tory seat but with the Liberals in a strong second place. This time, Richard Holme, an advisor to David Steel is chasing Charles Irving who has a majority of 13,000. Now Cheltenham has declared first four times and came second last time, this time they have all the ballot boxes in a full ten minutes before last time. Turnout here, however, is just under 80% which is fractionally up on last time which may slow them down a little. The estimated declaration time is about 11:30 and the Liberals are saying they have halved Charles Irving's majority. Now back to David Dimbleby in London.

DD: We will be keeping a close eye on those three constituencies and we will, of course, get you the result the moment it comes. Luckily because there have been no boundary changes, we will be able to compare easily with 1979 and tell you how the parties are doing. We will go into that in some detail, but first a forecast from Peter.

Peter Snow: We've asked our computer to forecast based on our exit poll what the results will be, here it goes <palpable wait for graphics>, the Conservatives on 348, the Labour Party on 251, the Liberals on 16 and the Others on 21, now this isn't based on any actual results, but an exit poll of four and a half thousand people

DD: Thank you, Peter. Now as we await the first result, I think it is time to go to Robin Day and his politicians. Robin.

Robin Day: Thank you, David, of course, it won't be all politicians all night, there are times where they have to go to counts and we will be joined by such journalistic luminaries as Peregrine Worsthorne. However, whilst Peter gets his battleboards ready, I shall ask my panel a few pertinent questions. Mr Heseltine, was this election really needed?

Michael Heseltine: Well, Robin, that's a very interesting question. Obviously, we could have continued for another year and a half, but there was the issue of mandate. The Dislocation changed everything and large parts of what would have been our programme had to fall by the wayside.

Neil Kinnock: Thank goodness.

MH: Now we did what we could at the time, but the House of Lords has been invoking the Salisbury Convention more and more because what we have been putting forward was not put to the people. In addition, the media from all political stances, has been calling for a new mandate - we had hope to wait for the new boundaries, but when they were turned down, it was obvious that we should go ahead.

RD: Mr Kinn-ock, you look anxious to speak.

NK: Well, Robin, I think it was an unneeded election at this time, whilst I agree that there was no mandate left, it would have been easier to wait until the normal time of election in the Spring and go then. What the Conservatives tried to do was to jump the electorate and create havoc in the political process that they could benefit from.

RD: I'd have thought you would have been keen to have an election at any time, after all that has been the rallying cry of many people in the Labour party since a couple of months after the Dislocation.

NK: We've seen from this stunted campaign that there has been no enthusiasm for this election, just a crazy five weeks of running around.

RD: Isn't that what elections are about. Mr Smith, any thoughts.

Cyril Smith: We called for an election and we were happy to have one on new or old boundaries. Labour rightly challenged the new boundaries and got caught with their trousers down.

RD: Forthright as ever. Rightly challenged, weren't you on Election Call saying there was no real difference in your seat?

CS: For most of the country, there wasn't. I've not looked closely, but except for London there really wasn't a problem with the new boundaries. My seat had about 700 extra voters, that was pretty common.

MH: I'd just like to say that from what I've been hearing about turnout, this "stunted" campaign looks like it has a very similar turnout to the last election.

RD: That is what the messages appear to be saying so far, turnout does appear to have been brisk. Mr Kinn-ock, you had one of the more publicised speeches of the campaign warning people not to grow old with the Tories - what do you think were the main issues?

NK: I think the NHS came up a lot, there was a lot of worry that it is becoming the World Health Service and that doctors and nurses are going to be in short supply because of this incessant colonial urge. Similarly, Education, how can we educate everyone.

RD: Not defence?

NK: Defence was a media story, it rarely came up on doorsteps, when it did that man and it usually was a man was generally against us anyway.

MH: <snorts>

RD: You clearly disagree, Mr Heseltine.

MH: With Neil's comments on defence, yes. With his other comments on Health and Education, I actually agree with him, which is why we have more teacher training places, why we have more nursing places, why we are opening more medical schools. There was a danger of that, but we have averted it by opening more places, not by ignoring the world.

RD: And your issue of the election?

MH: The one that surprise me was how many people did support some form of Labour's isolationism and not just Labour voters, not to the cruel extent that some in Labour did of abandoning our colonists, but there was a lot of feeling from voters that we don't want to have much to do with the rest of the world because it is so different.

CS: <nods> Wouldn't disagree with that. I had to spend a lot of time explaining why America is important, especially to Pakistani voters who were also very unconcerned about what was happening in what would have been Pakistan. They wanted things done here, not in Philadelphia.

RD: You are a bit of a dissenter on that issue, aren't you?

CS: I think it is important, I think that it isn't as important as the party made out during the campaign and I'm very unsure about the idea of allowing colonies to become part of the UK proper.

RD: It seems to have worked well in the Channel Islands, who, of course are counting tomorrow and likely to elect possibly the only Independent in the Parliament. And what was the non-issue, we will start with you Mr Kinn-ock.

NK: Ireland. I kept on expecting that dog to bark and it hasn't.

MH: I actually agree with Neil here, for the first time in a very long time our Irish policy appears to have general across the board support.

NK: There are items we would change, but not that much.

RD: Mr Smith.

CS: Never really been an issue in Rochdale, but I must admit I expected that there would be trouble over our actions near Bombay, virtually nothing.

NK: It was a little different near my flat in Ealing, but it was generally in support of the British action - mainly by Sikhs.

RD: So given the likely result according to our exit poll, ah, David is waving furiously at me. David

DD: Just need to interrupt, but we are hearing that Glasgow Central looks like it will pip all our other constituencies to the wire. Anthony King, can you help us out on this.

Anthony King: Well, it shouldn't really be a surprise, Glasgow Central is the smallest constituency in the UK. With an electorate of only 17,304 it is smaller than even the Channel Islands, Orkney & Shetland and the Western Isles - all of which have a good reason to be so tiny. It's also massively atypical, even for Scotland, it swung to Labour in 1979.

NK: That was common across Glasgow.

AK: And probably will be again, if what we think has happened to the SNP vote has happened.

DD: That's very small, what's the largest seat?

AK: Buckingham, with an electorate of over 118,000. Nearly 100,000 people will vote today in Buckingham, maybe 10,000 will vote in Glasgow Central.

MH: And both will get one MP.

DD: <scowls> So what should be look for?

AK: It is very difficult to say, but if Labour get over 7,500 votes, then we might be looking at a hung parliament, but this is a very, very atypical constituency.

DD: We are told five minutes, so back to you, Robin

RD: Well, I was going to ask what people thought of the exit poll. Michael?

MH: If it is correct, then it is a little disappointing to say the least, but it would look like a solid majority and a renewed mandate.

NK: I will wait to see the real results, polls have been wrong before.

RD: But surely not to to the extent that it would put you in Government?

NK: We only need to be 3% or even 4% behind to have a hung parliament.

RD: Hmph. Mr Smith, surely you will be happy.

CS: Happy, more like chuffed, we will have put Thorpe behind us, but what I'm more interested in is where we have made progress. We may not win many seats but in terms of the vote, we are looking at a very good result.

RD: So the next election for a Liberal government?

CS: We will have to wait and see.

DD: But we won't have to wait and see for Glasgow Central, because they are up on the stage now.

<Cut over> Harvey, (Conservative) 1,925; McGoldrick (Communist) 191; McTaggart (Labour) 7,312 <cheers>, Mallam (Scottish National) 272, Nelson (Liberal) 1,053 and I hereby declare Robert McTaggart elected as the member for Glasgow, Central.

DD: The first result is in off this election and it is first blood to the Labour Party, Bob McTaggart holds onto Glasgow, Central in a very convincing manner. A little disappointing for the other seats racing to be first, but they only had a few thousand votes to count in Glasgow. Peter, have you the details for us yet?

PS: Well, you probably can't see the tiny speck of red on the map, but the board has been updated and shows Labour with a seat, but I'm not going to re-run the prediction on this one.

DD: Perhaps you should, it would be just like a by-election.

PS: Which is perhaps the best comparison. But here we are

<graphic board>
Glasgow, Central
LABOUR HOLD

Electorate: 17,304
Turnout: 10,752

McTaggart Lab 7,312 68.0% (-4.5)
Harvey Con 1,925 17.9% (+1.5)
Nelson Lib 1,053 9.8% (n/a)
Mallam SNP 272 2.5% (-8.6)
McGoldrick Comm 191 1.8% (n/a)

Majority: 5,387 (51.1%)
Swing: Lab to Con: 3%

PS: Unlike last time, there was a swing to the Conservatives, but of course we have a Liberal intervention, which we didn't have in 1979. Even under the new rules, the SNP lose their deposit, as does the Communist

DD: Dr King?

AK: Well, as I said before, this is a very atypical seat. If that 3% swing is correct, then our exit poll may be a little bit out, but the seat did swing the wrong way last time and there is a Liberal intervention this time. You can't predict anything from this.

RD: Not that will stop the politicians of course. Mr Kinn-ock

NK: Well, I tend to agree with Tony King, you can't say much about this, but I will note that considering all the new jobs created in Glasgow, it isn't that good a result for the Tories.

MH: <glowers> The most significant bit is the collapse of the SNP, it has been forecasted for a while, but this indicates that it is as bad as their collapse in Hillhead.

RD: Mr Smith, pleased at holding the new lower deposit?

CS: Delighted, Robin, delighted. It makes me wonder if Magnus can break through in Hillhead.

DD: Well, it seems it will be a while before we hear from any other seat, but a few snippets are coming through. Turnout is generally similar to 1979, maybe a little bit higher but nothing significant. We are also hearing that the SNP are in complete despair and have almost certainly lost Dundee East to Labour. We also hear that Labour are saying that they have won Liverpool, Garston from the Tories and that Liverpool, Wavertree looks very tight whilst the Conservatives tell us they think they are winning Norwood at a canter. We will just go to news around the region and then back to the panel.

[iainbhx]

BBC Election 82
5th of November 1982, 0:05am

David Dimbleby: That result from Hayes and Harlington is the 25th result in so far tonight, plenty more to come before we come off the air at 4am, Anthony, do you want to talk us quickly through what we have seen so far.

Anthony King: Well, so far we have seen only one seat change hands - Hornchurch which was a Labour Gain from the Conservatives. We've mainly seen smaller seats declare, plus some of the traditional fast declarers. We can start to draw some conclusions, but not many, we've heard nothing from Yorkshire, nothing from the Midlands and nothing from East Anglia. In fact we really haven't heard from anything like a representative sample of seats. However, there are two things starting to become clear, firstly that in terms of voteshare this looks like a good night for the Liberal Party, it looks like they will be up with or maybe even exceeding their 19.3% of February 1974 - however, this may not lead to many more seats. Secondly, it looks like those predictions of Tory troubles in unemployment blackspots are coming true, there was a small swing to Labour in very marginal Hornchurch, but there was a 5% swing to Labour in Hayes and Harlington.

DD: Does that put the Tories in any sort of peril?

AK: As I say, it is far too early to tell and we have to balance these again what we are hearing of a Tory surge in parts of South East London, we are being told Labour have lost Norwood and lost Norwood big, but they have also lost two seats in Lewisham.

DD: Have we learnt anything else?

AK: We have had four Scottish seats in, the results for the SNP in each of these seats has been appalling. They have lost between 75% and 85% of their vote in each of them, now these are all Central Belt seats, but if this holds up, the SNP will be back to being very much a fringe party. They may only hold the Western Isles.

DD: Any other snippets?

AK: There have been a few results where there are Ecology Party candidates, they are doing much better than I expected. Not hugely better, but a couple of percent of the vote in most cases. However, to balance that, the National Front and other far-right candidates have been having the same awful fate as the SNP, although some independents with a bit of far right history have not done too badly in some of the safe suburban seats we have seen.

DD: I've just heard that Labour have held Tooting with a very similar majority to last time. Anyway, Peter, some of these more interesting results.

Peter Snow: Well, if we start with Cheltenham.

Cheltenham
CONSERVATIVE HOLD

Electorate: 66,899
Turnout: 79.4%

Irving Con 24,544 46.2% (-4.8%)
Holme Lib 19,974 37.6% (+7.6%)
James Lab 7,115 13.4% (-4.9%)
Swindley Eco 1,504 2.8% (n/a)

Majority: 4,570 (6.6%)
Swing: Con to Lib: 6.7%


As you can see, very little swing between the Tories and Labour but a big swing to the Liberals, one that might see nearby Chippenham falling.

DD: I can see Cyril Smiths' face lighting up from here. What others do you have for us?

PS: Well, I've pulled a selection, here's Salford West, it's interesting because it is another example of a flat swing between the two main parties.

AK: I should say that it is still very early for that sort of analysis, but it is interesting because it is a seat the Liberal fought in 1974 and didn't fight in 1979 and now have fought. They have done slightly worse than 1974, which is also a common theme in those seats.

PS: Well here you are

Salford, West
LABOUR HOLD

Electorate: 43,271
Turnout: 72.0%

Orme Lab 17,824 57.2% (-4.3%)
Cole Con 10,328 33.1% (-4.1%)
Williams Lib 3,003 9.6% (n/a)

Majority: 7,496 (24.1%)
Swing: .1% Lab to Con

As you can see, very, very flat between the Conservatives and Labour.

AK: Which means that the election may see very few seats change hands which is being born out by what we are hearing from counts.

DD: Peter, any more interesting seats before we go to the panel.

PS: Obviously, a recap on the Labour gain in Hornchurch

Hornchurch
LABOUR GAIN FROM CON

Electorate: 61,941
Turnout: 82.2%

Williams Lab 22,569 44.3% (+1.1%)
Squire Con 21,576 42.3% (-2.5%)
Martin Lib 6,036 11.8% (+2%)
Crowson Eco 754 1.5% (n/a)

Majority: 993 (1.0%)
Swing: 1.8% Con to Lab

As you can see, not a huge swing, nor a big Liberal effect there. Very close, and turnout up 4%.

DD: Sorry to interrupt, but this is the second seat to change hands of the night, we understand that the Liberals have taken Yeovil from the Conservatives by around a thousand votes. That must be a huge swing.

PS: John Payton had an 11,000 plus majority, if that's correct, then this is a shocking result for the Conservatives.

DD: Yes, that's confirmed, Sir Jeremy Ashdown has taken it just over a thousand votes and well, I think we have to go to the panel. Robin.

Robin Day: Obviously, I have to go to Cyril Smith first. Cyril, a turning of the tide for the Liberals or another cunning celebrity candidate.

Cyril Smith: Well, I now owe David Penhaligon a pint and I'm very glad to owe him a pint. I think that it is a bit of both, Robin, you couldn't hope for a more prominent candidate than Paddy Ashdown, nor could you point to a more hard working Liberal Party than Yeovil - although Rochdale does try.

DD: The Conservatives have held Ruislip-Northwood, but with a considerable reduction in their majority.

RD: Mr Kinn-ock, Yeovil? Hornchurch?

Neil Kinnock: Well, Hornchurch is very encouraging, a few more like that and the exit poll will looking as bad as 1970. Obviously, here we have the effect of job losses in London coming home to roost and people turning to Labour because of that.

RD: Mr Heseltine? Yeovil, you used to be a West Country MP at the start of your career.

MH: I think the West Country has always been prone to Liberalism and Yeovil is an example of that. The Liberals have campaigned very strongly in a number of West Country seats and, of course, their candidate in Yeovil has that celebrity touch to them that they do love.

DD: Sir Geoffrey Howe has held Surrey East, but I am informed with a reduced majority again and the Conservatives have held Ravensbourne, but with roughly the same majority.

RD: So are you still feeling confident Mr Heseltine.

MH: I think so, we are only hearing from a limited number of areas many of which are strongly Labour or have been badly affected by the Dislocation.

DD: Peter, do we have Yeovil yet?

PS: Indeed we do and it is quite an astounding result, if repeated in other West Country seats, then the Conservatives could lose another five seats in that area alone.

Yeovil
LIBERAL GAIN FROM CONSERVATIVE

Electorate: 84,646
Turnout: 83.9%

Ashdown Lib 31,068 44.0% (+13.5%)
Peyton Con 30,017 42.5% (-5.4%)
Brushett Lab 9,450 13.4% (-8.1%)

Majority: 1,051 (1.5%)
Swing: 9.4% Con to Lib

DD: Any comments Anthony?

AK: An increase in turnout and Ashdown clearly drawing votes from both sides here. That's a very good result, I don't think we will see many five figure majorities overturned tonight.

DD: So is our exit poll looking good or bad

AK: Of course, the poll is subject to regional differences, it may all balance out in the end, I would like to hear from a few more seats first.

PS: But it isn't all against the exit poll, Clive Soley has just held Hammersmith North but his majority has been heavily slashed from 3,500 to just over 1,000 and that's one of the seats with a large number of new voters because of the Dislocation.

AK: That matches with the Holborn and St Pancras South result, Frank Dobson just got through with his majority cut down to just under a thousand and that is another seat with a lot of new voters. This could be worth watching, the turnout also appears to be up in seats with Dislocation voters. However, we are looking at some very small samples, we have only just over 30 seats in.

DD: Peter, anything that might whet the appetite of the panel. I know Mr Smith will be leaving us soon, he does not have the benefit of a count tomorrow morning like Mr Kinnock and Mr Heseltine.

PS: Just a quick look at Sidcup, where Edward Heath has actually increased his majority by a very small amount, but we have an Independent holding his deposit.

Sidcup
CONSERVATIVE HOLD

Electorate: 51,161
Turnout: 82.3%

Heath Con 23,211 55.1% (-4.7%)
Kiff Lab 9,226 21.9% (-3.9%)
Radcliffe Lib 7,161 17.0% (4.6%)
Vickers Ind 2,506 6.0%

Majority 13,985
Swing: Con to Lab 0.4%

AK: Now that is quite interesting, again we actually have a very small swing in the seat between the two major parties, but votes going to the Liberals and to an Independent.

PS: I am told that the Independent is a former National Front candidate.

DD: But not standing under his old colours and Labour have held Bothwell in the Scottish Central Belt. Robin.

RD: Obviously, Mr Smith has to be off now and we will be replacing him with Lord Avebury, any last words?

CS: I think it is looking like the problems of 1979 are over for the Liberals and we are again moving forward.

RD: And before you go, your seat is always quite tight, confident this time?

CS: Confident but not complacent. I hope to increase my majority.

RD: Mr Heseltine, any thoughts on Sidcup?

MH: Ted has always had problems with people standing against him from the far right and with this new level of deposit, it is fairly clear that more people will hold their deposits.

DD: Labour have held Glasgow Cathcart, which was their surprise gain last time, but with a reduced majority.

MH: I had hoped we would gain it back, but the collapse of the SNP will benefit Labour more than others in some parts of Scotland.

DD: Peter, how complete is that collapse?

PS: They have lost their deposit in every seat so far.

DD: Can we expect the same from Plaid Cymru?

PS: We haven't had a single Welsh result yet.

DD: This is true, Anthony?

AK: The exit poll doesn't take much of a sample in Wales and I can't really draw any conclusions from it.

RD: Mr Kinn-ock, you're a Valleys MP, Plaid?

NK: I think Plaid Cymru have a different appeal to the SNP, certainly their vote will be down in the Valleys, but in the Welsh-speaking areas, I expect they will hold up reasonable well.

RD: Hold their seats?

NK: I would have thought that Dafydd Wigley would hold on with ease, Dafydd L, maybe not quite so easily.

RD: So they could have more seats than the SNP.

AK: That could be a distinct possibility, Plaid holding their two seats and the SNP holding Western Isles looks quite likely.

DD: Well, well. That would be a turn up, however, the Conservatives have revenge for Hornchurch, they have just won Battersea, South.

AK: A seat where I would have thought they might struggle, but again has stopped its decline due to Dislocation voters. 6% of the electorate there would have previously been ineligible to vote.

DD: They have also held Fulham with an increased majority and Ilford South with a very similar majority.

AK: London is starting to report in droves now and we are getting a clearer picture. Where there are new Dislocation voters in numbers, there is a movement towards the Conservatives.

PS: We now have the Battersea result.

DD: And a Labour hold with a very flat swing in Newcastle upon Tyne East. That's Mike Thomas, one of Labour's more right-wing MPs and one who has been very involve in the Right-Left arguments within Labour.

Battersea, South
CONSERVATIVE GAIN FROM LABOUR

Electorate: 44,772
Turnout: 75.3%

Allason Con 14,804 43.9% (-.1%)
Dubs Lab 12,943 38.4% (-6.7)
Harris Lib 5,240 15.5% (+6.1)
Wellington Eco 735 2.2% (n/a)

Majority: 1,861
Swing: 3.3% Lab to Con

PS: That is more clearly a swing from Labour to Liberal than any we have seen before.

AK: A lot of things can be concealed by the swing figures.

DD: So Rupert Allason, a man who has some interesting connections in the intelligence world is returned for Battersea, South. Now I see our panel is changing, but Robin has some other people to interview.

RD: Indeed I do, whilst our politicians are having refreshments or changing over, we have a couple of distinguishing members of the media. Peregrine Worsthorne of the Sunday Telegraph and Peter Preston of the Guardian. Perry, surprised?

Peregrine Worsthorne: At the results so far, no, not really. The Conservative campaign almost didn't exist until the last week, Michael Heseltine tried, tried very hard, but he lacks the bourgeois triumphalist appeal of Margaret Thatcher. He appeals to a certain sort of Conservative, but not to those who decide elections.

Peter Preston: How about Tebbit? He played a role as well.

PW: Ah, Tebbit, Tebbit is sui generis and his appeal is again limited, very much to the estate agent and car dealer grouping. Fine in places like Essex, but appalling north of the Watford Gap.

DD: Labour hold Gateshead West and Glasgow, Kelvingrove, both tiny seats affected by slum clearance.

RD: Peter, the Labour campaign.

PP: Was mainly trying to conceal just how divided the party was, hence some of their best players like Denis Healey and Tony Benn confined to barracks. Foot made some excellent speeches, but at the wrong targets, the people he spoke to, the audience he address would never vote anything but Labour.

DD: Bryan Gould is now the new Labour MP for Dagenham, with an increased majority.

PP: And there is an example, Foot went to Dagenham. There was a 10,000 majority in Dagenham, never, never in a month of Sundays would Dagenham be in any danger. Perhaps if Foot had gone to Battersea, that might have been a hold. However, he mainly spoke to unionised workers in safe Labour seats.

AK: Just a point about Dagenham, with the retirement of John Parker, that will mean James Callaghan, if elected will be the father of the House who will of course be in the Chair for the election of a new speaker.

RD: A very interesting point. So Perry, firstly new Speaker and secondly what about the Liberals.

PW: Well, of course, it is really the Conservatives turn in that barrel, Robin, although I understand the name of Enoch Powell is being bandied around. As for the Liberals, what about them, they haven't been relevant since the war.

DD: Well, we hear Harrow East has been held by the Conservatives and it is coming up to 12:25 and that we are just waiting for the 50th seat to be declared.

PS: And here it is, Chislehurst, with an increased Conservative majority.

DD: Where are we before we go to Belfast.

PS: Labour have 28, the Conservatives 21 and the Liberals 1. In net terms, the Conservatives are down 1 and the Liberals are up 1. I don't expect that to last.

[Tangent]

I shall definitely read through it, Iain - I have sometimes mulled through similar scenarios over different timescales.

Without taking you too much over old ground, what did you do about food, given that Europe simply won't have the infrastructure to make up the difference, let alone non-European sources? And did you ever consider having Henry Kissinger in the UK (or sunning himself in Bermuda) during the Disruption? I can see him sailing for Vienna as soon as is convenient, and he would be a remarkable ally/adversary.

[iainbhx]

Oct 19, 2014 20:54:10 GMT Tangent said:

I shall definitely read through it, Iain - I have sometimes mulled through similar scenarios over different timescales.

Without taking you too much over old ground, what did you do about food, given that Europe simply won't have the infrastructure to make up the difference, let alone non-European sources? And did you ever consider having Henry Kissinger in the UK (or sunning himself in Bermuda) during the Disruption? I can see him sailing for Vienna as soon as is convenient, and he would be a remarkable ally/adversary.

There is rationing, there will be rationing for a few years yet. The UK buys food from anywhere, which is causing both economic growth and also problems in some areas. The main export sources at the moment are Ireland, Denmark and Poland-Lithuania.

[greenchristian]

Oct 19, 2014 21:30:38 GMT iainbhx said:

Oct 19, 2014 20:54:10 GMT Tangent said:

I shall definitely read through it, Iain - I have sometimes mulled through similar scenarios over different timescales.

Without taking you too much over old ground, what did you do about food, given that Europe simply won't have the infrastructure to make up the difference, let alone non-European sources? And did you ever consider having Henry Kissinger in the UK (or sunning himself in Bermuda) during the Disruption? I can see him sailing for Vienna as soon as is convenient, and he would be a remarkable ally/adversary.

There is rationing, there will be rationing for a few years yet. The UK buys food from anywhere, which is causing both economic growth and also problems in some areas. The main export sources at the moment are Ireland, Denmark and Poland-Lithuania.

Speaking of rationing, the 1980 by-elections featured seats with anti-rationing candidates. I notice that none of the seats looked at so far has included them. Has the anti-rationing party gone away sometime between the February 1981 bits I'm reading now and the 1982 general election, or is it just co-incidence that they haven't stood in these particular seats?

[iainbhx]

Oct 19, 2014 21:45:13 GMT greenchristian said:

Oct 19, 2014 21:30:38 GMT iainbhx said:

There is rationing, there will be rationing for a few years yet. The UK buys food from anywhere, which is causing both economic growth and also problems in some areas. The main export sources at the moment are Ireland, Denmark and Poland-Lithuania.

Speaking of rationing, the 1980 by-elections featured seats with anti-rationing candidates. I notice that none of the seats looked at so far has included them. Has the anti-rationing party gone away sometime between the February 1981 bits I'm reading now and the 1982 general election, or is it just co-incidence that they haven't stood in these particular seats?

There is no formal Anti-Rationing party, more a label. However, there are quite a lot of butthurt Independent candidates in the South East who can be described as anti-rationing, pro-white collar and with varying stances on the world, some of them are even managing to save their deposit. The nearest things to "groupings" of them are the New Britain Party and the New Empire Party.

[iainbhx]

BBC Election 82
5th of November 1982, 0:40am

David Dimbleby: Now we are back from Belfast, where we do hope for some declarations later whilst the rest of Northern Ireland counts tomorrow. We are also entering the period where we will have many declarations, a lot of the safer seats will just appear at the bottom of your screen. Most of Glasgow has come in whilst we were in Belfast, but I don't think there was anything particularly interesting. Peter?

Peter Snow: Well, apart from the Conservatives holding Hillhead, there hasn't been much of interest. We have had the first official Liverpool result, which was David Alton holding Edge Hill with a very small majority and a big swing against the Conservatives in Uxbridge although they held the seat, but we have started to see a few other parts of the country come in and soon Tony King will be able to pontificate more.

Tony King: One thing I will say is that we now have a better selection of Scottish seats and it looks like the rout of the SNP is total, not just in Strathclyde. We can also see that the Conservatives are doing better in North London and South East London than average and far, far worse in West London and at least in the outer parts of East London. They also appear to be down considerably in the safer seats in the South East - which must mean if the exit polls are correct they must be doing well in the Midlands - and the Midlands has remained silent so far.

DD: Are you doubting your poll?

TK: I don't think the voteshare will be out by much, but we are now predicting only a 47 majority for the Conservatives.

DD: We now have a rumour of a recount in Salisbury.

TK: Salisbury would fall on a Yeovil-type swing, it was one of the Liberals best results in 1979, they are just over 6,000 behind. But it could be for a Labour lost deposit.

DD: And a increased majority in Bexleyheath for Cyril Townsend and a small increase in the Labour majority in Carlisle. It's all over the place tonight, isn't it?

TK: I am seriously thinking of throwing away my prediction, there are patterns but they don't even seem to be regional and very, very few seats are changing hands.

PS: Which makes my swingometer worse than useless. From the eighty or so seats we have in, I think there looks like an overall swing to the Conservatives of less than one percent. Now if we look at this, we see that only 6 seats would fall to Mrs Thatcher on that swing and the only seat that has fallen to her is just outside of range, seat number 7 on the battleboard.

DD: Bob Mellish holds Bermondsey for Labour and Bernard Wetherall, who is very much tipped as a possibility for the next speaker has held his Croydon Seat. How about the Swing to the Liberals?

PS: Well, that is always a difficult thing to judge. There appears to be about a 4% swing from the Conservatives to the Liberals and about a 5% swing from Labour to the Liberals. According to the swingometer, that would get them nothing. Yet they have taken Yeovil, which is 17th on their target list from the Tories and we understand there is a recount in Salisbury which is 9th.

DD: And the recount has been called by the Tories, I understand.

TK: And we haven't seen any other Liberal inclined seat yet either. However, I would be inclined to count Yeovil as the exception and look at Salisbury as being the limit of their reach. Of course, there are no Labour seats in danger from the Liberals.

PS: Funny you should say that, the Bermondsey result is horrific for Labour, Bob Mellish has gone from having a 12,000 majority over the Tories to a 5,000 majority over the Liberals. Carry that over the other side of the Thames and I think Eric Flounders might become the first Liberal MP for the East End since 1945.

DD: And we haven't heard from the East End yet. I speak too soon, I'm told Nigel Spearing has held Newham South for Labour with a very similar majority to last time. Let's see Bermondsey.

AK: I see that what has happened in Newham is that the Liberals have replaced the Tories in second place.

Bermondsey
Labour Hold

Electorate: 61,355
Turnout: 65.6%

Mellish Lab 18,615 46.3% (-17.3%)
Hughes Lib 13,342 33.2% (+26.6%)
Hughes Con 7,756 19.3% (-5.6%)
Mason NBP 518 1.3% (n/a)

Majority: 6,273 (13.1%)
Swing: Lab to Lib: 21.9%

DD: Good grief, that's by-election territory.

AK: It certainly is, I wonder if we will see a bigger swing tonight, I don't think so. However, Bob Mellish holds on - I do wonder if any of those who tried to deselect him would have done.

DD: Conservatives hold Paddington, which was a very narrow gain for them last time I remember the multiple recounts - however, we will just go to Anglesey for the declaration there.

PS: Talking of recounts - Wood Green

<Cut over> Best (Conservative) 15,709 (Cheers), Jones (Plaid Cymru) 8,971, Thomas (Liberal) 5,183, Williams (Labour) 13,570 (More cheers) and I hereby declare Keith Best elected as the member for <Cut back>

DD: The Conservatives hold Anglesey, a seat that Mr Kinnock was saying earlier they felt would come back home to Labour and they have held Hampstead as well and Labour have held Stirling.

PS: Stirling, Falkirk and Grangemouth - a odd thing, the last seat of Burghs rather than a burgh seat.

DD: I won't ask. Tony, your first welsh result?

AK: Well, Plaid Cymru will be happy, their vote increased a very small amount. Officially, there is 1% swing from Labour to the Conservatives, but the reality is both have dropped and votes have gone to Plaid and the Liberals - but not that many. This really is an election of little change.

DD: Unless you are in Bermondsey or Yeovil. Lets see what the panel of journalists think. Robin?

Robin Day: So, Peter, Perry hasn't let you get many words in so far, an election of little change?

Peter Preston: I think I agree with Neil Kinnock, a stagnant election, probably apart from the question of mandate an unrequired election.

Peregrine Worsthorne: The turnout seems to deny that. If I heard Tony correctly it appeared to be up overall?

TK: Marginally, maybe 2%, but we are hearing from London which has most of the new Dislocation voters that may raise turnout.

PP: But there has been very little change, even in supposedly volatile London.

PW: We haven't heard from a great part of the country yet, but I suppose with such a dull campaign, there would be little opportunity to change minds.

PP: One thing that strikes me is how the Tories failed to have any alternative to Mrs Thatcher when she was less available. No-one really managed to step up to the plate, of course, you could say the same for Labour. Michael Foot made some excellent speeches, but many of the other main names were very quiet.

DD: Labour have held Tottenham, but with a massively reduced majority down to just over 2,000 and they have held Lambeth Central and that's a halved majority as well. Just over a hundred seats declared now.

PW: Well, there simply is no alternative to Mrs Thatcher, Peter, you know that and to be honest, I wonder which nonentity will succeed Mr Foot.

PP: You think Tony Benn or Denis Healey are nonentities?

PW: I would be delighted if Tony Benn succeeded, we would have decades of Tory rule, but mark my words, neither will succeed.

PP: I don't really see anyone else.

PW: There will be a flabby compromise.

RD: I would ask you to explain that, Perry, but Peter Snow is waving his arms around like he's drowning. Peter.

PS: Sorry, Robin, it's just we've actually had a seat change hands. The Conservatives have gained Mitcham and Morden where Bruce Douglas-Mann stood down at quite a late juncture.

DD: Do you have it.

PS: Here we are

MITCHAM AND MORDEN
CONSERVATIVE GAIN FROM LABOUR

Electorate: 64,450
Turnout: 85.9%

Rumbold Con 24,553 44.3% (+0.4%)
Harman Lab 22,776 41.1% (-4.1%)
Nightingale Lib 8,033 14.5% (+5.6%)

Majority: 1,777 (3.2%)
Swing: 2.2% Con to Lab

PS: A small swing but just above the average so far tonight. Labour loses its tenth most marginal seat. A huge turnout there, Harriet Harman actually got over a thousand votes more than Labour did in 1979 and still lost.

DD: The Conservatives have held Angus South, but is that the first SNP deposit held?

AK: It's actually the second, Stirlingshire East and Clackmannan crept in under the wire earlier, but it is still grim for them - from 41% to 10% in one election in a seat they held 8 years ago.

DD: Well, we have tried to get an senior SNP member on the line but they have all demurred, we do have former SNP member Margo McDonald in Edinburgh, but a quick recap first, Peter?

PS: We have 113 seats in and two confirmed in recount. 66 are Labour, 45 are Conservative and 2 are Liberal.

[iainbhx]

BBC Election 82
5th November 1982, 1:10am

David Dimbleby: Whilst the politicians reassemble, Robin is going to have a quick word with Margo MacDonald in Edinburgh.

Robin Day: Margo, thank you for joining us when others in your former party have refused to, perhaps you can give us your opinion on what went wrong for the SNP.

Margo MacDonald: The party has fallen apart, Robin, the left wing have left or been shoved to one side. They have concentrated on the sole idea that Scotland can be the second greatest nation in the world and the folk of Scotland are not having it.

RD: Do you no longer approve of independence?

MM: I think it has to be shelved for a generation or more, even if we became independent we would be in the same position as England, struggling to keep afloat. The folk of Scotland are genuinely afeart of this and with good reason, where would we gain extra food, where would we gain our minerals, where would we trade.

RD: And you think the Scottish people have seen this.

MM: Yes, I think the guid folk of Scotland have decided that it is better the devil you know. I still hope that my children will live in an independent Scotland, but for the next decade at least, it is better to concentrate on getting devolution and a solid constitutional settlement.

RD: So you'd look towards the Plaid Cymru model? Independence is a long term aspiration.

MM: <nods> Better to preserve the Scots tongue and Scots culture and to strengthen the institutions of Scotland and devolve power, not just for Scotland, but for Wales and the English regions.

RD: So will you be joining another party?

MM: I don't see that at the present, unless the SNP fades completely into oblivion. We should still hold the Western Isles and we still have a small number of councillors, we can rebuild once the leadership goes.

RD: And if they don't?

MM: I can't see them surviving.

RD: Well, thank you and I'll just go back to David now.

DD: And during that short conversation we have had a dozen results come in, we are clearly reaching the busiest point of the night. Francis Pym has held his seat in Cambridgeshire with a very similar majority, Lincoln has gone into recount and the Conservatives have taken Norwood. Peter?

Peter Snow: Here's the Norwood result, a 1,900 Labour majority replaced with Tory one of just less than 4,000. The seat falling wasn't a surprise the majority was.

NORWOOD
CONSERVATIVE GAIN FROM LABOUR

Electorate: 49,837
Turnout: 78.6%

Parfitt Con 18,165 46.3% (+4.6)
Tilley Lab 14,281 36.4% (-11)
Noble Lib 5,828 14.9% (+6)
Sanderson Eco 917 2.3% (n/a)

Majority: 3,884
Swing: Lab to Con 7.8%

Anthony King: Norwood brings up an interesting question, it is somewhat out of kilter with the other South London results except for a couple of others with larger than normal Afro-Caribbean communities. We know that some very bad GLC and London Borough results have been blamed on the "black vote" turning against Labour, but the evidence has been circumstantial.

DD: Not even from the exit poll?

AK: Far, far too small a sample. The British Election Study will have a better sample, but we will have to wait for that.

DD: Of course. I understand that there is a recount in Keighley.

PS: They are coming in thick and fast now. John Butterfill has hung on his by-election victory in Croydon NW and it appears that controversial left winger Reg Race has just survived in Wood Green.

DD: Can we see that one?

WOOD GREEN
LABOUR HOLD

Electorate: 55,552
Turnout: 75.5%

Race Lab 17,516 41.7% (-5.2%)
Wing Con 17,184 40.9% (+1.2%)
Tallis Lib 7,264 17.3% (+6.8)

Majority: 332
Swing: Lab to Con : 3.2%

AK: Just a little bit above the North London average so far. Now here's what we have Lord Avebury on for - Salisbury has just declared for the Liberals and I'm surprised there wasn't a second recount.

PS: You did say that you thought Salisbury was at the edge of the Liberal's range and it really is on the edge.

SALISBURY
LIBERAL GAIN FROM CONSERVATIVE

Electorate: 66,136
Turnout: 78.2%

Lakeman Lib 23,537 45.5% (+7.1)
Key Con 23,470 45.4% (-4.4)
Boney Lab 3,419 6.6% (-6)
Oliver NBP 1,293 2.5% (-)

Majority: 67
Swing: Con to Lib: 5.7%

DD: Robin.

RD: Well, both Mr Smith and Mr Heseltine have gone to their counts. Mr Kinn-ock has bravely offered to stop until 2am, I think he plans to sleep in the car on the way to Bedwellty.

NK: I do hope so.

RD: In which case I hope your wife is driving. Anyway, Lord Avebury, Salisbury?

Lord Avebury: A very good result and I'll note not a celebrity candidate, just someone who has worked the seat very hard.

RD: David Mellor, welcome, fresh from your triumph just down the road in Putney. You appear to be a bit stalled, you take from Labour and give to the Liberals.

David Mellor: <winces> I think it is important to say that we didn't expect large gains, this is very much an election in the Baldwin mode - safety first, give the party who has got us through so far the mandate to finish the job. The Liberals, however, assured in the comfort of knowing they won't be elected have been able to offer a more radical and attractive package.

RD: Quite prolix there, Mr Mellor. I think the thing is that they are being elected.

NK: <laughs>

DD: Renee Short back in Wolverhampton and a recount in Richmond (Surrey).

PS: That's another Liberal target.

AK: Quite surprised Richmond is going to a recount, but I suppose the GLC result mean the Tories have fought it tooth and nail. Peckham has just declared, could we see that Peter?

PS: You'll have to wait a moment.

DD: We also have the confirmation that the SNP have lost Dundee East to Labour and Kenneth Carlisle has held Lincoln after the recount.

AK: Talking of odd seats, Labour increase their majority in Eton and Slough, but an independent candidate got 8% of the vote.

PS: Here we are

PECKHAM
LABOUR HOLD

Electorate: 60,486
Turnout: 65.0%

Booth Lab 18,443 46.9% (-12.9)
Roberts Con 14,399 36.6% (+8.5)
Minahan Lib 5,919 15.0% (+7.3)
Gillott NF 580 1.5% (-2.9)

Majority: 3,044
Swing Lab to Con: 10.7%

AK: Another very large swing in a Inner South London seat.

DD: Neil Kinnock is begging to speak

NK: I think that one is down to the very late selection. Harold died just before the election was called and the process came down to two very able young women, Cherie Booth and Diane Abbott and I think it has left a lot of bad blood in the seat.

RD: Was that an NEC imposition?

NK: No, it was one of the last proper selections along with Peter Mandelson in Lambeth, Central. It was a short-cut process, but the CLP did shortlist and did select properly.

PS: And Dundee East

Dundee, East
LABOUR GAIN FROM SNP

Electorate: 64,216
Turnout: 79.2%

Ross Lab 27,129 53.4% (+17.4)
Battersby Con 15,018 29.5% (+11.3)
Brodie Lib 4,708 9.3% (+4.6)
Wilson SNP 3,096 6.1% (-34.9)
McLeod Eco 839 1.6% (n/a)

Majority: 12,081
Swing: Con to Lab 3%

AK: Ah, where swing breaks down.

DD: The SNP lost 35% of the vote?

PS: I've checked, the result is correct.

AK: This isn't a disaster for the Scottish National Party, this is an asteroid hitting the planet for them. Not only have they lost all their seats except possibly the Western Isles, but they have lost them very badly. Gordon Wilson has lost over 80% of his former voters.

PS: What is interesting is that a high proportion of them have gone Conservative.

AK: That wasn't the case in Glasgow.

DD: And whilst both of these have been discussed we have had another dozen results. Including the news of a recount in Islington Central and Richmond has gone to a full recount.

PS: Islington Central must be for a deposit.

AK: Maybe not, there are two MPs pitting against each other here, one as Labour and one as Independent Labour.

DD: A quick round up, Peter

PS: Labour now have 103 seats, the Conservatives 78 and the Liberals 3. Three seats are in recount, Keighley, Islington Central and on a second recount Richmond (Surrey).

DD: Which, of course, is no longer in Surrey. However, we need to move to Barnet Town Hall as the Finchley declaration is about to occur or at least I'm reliably informed it.