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Post by iainbhx on Oct 25, 2014 7:14:32 GMT
That ends the formal election night commentary, the rest joins the main timeline again. However, whilst it will be a couple of days before the round-up statistic post, I thought I'd treat you to one of the two maps done by my friend Thomas Anderson.  |
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,589 
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Post by cibwr on Oct 25, 2014 8:31:43 GMT
LOL Damn you Iain... now on page 100 of it, only 900 to go! Excellently written - I don't usually enjoy ITSOT stories but this is excellent! Just read Story-Only, whilst I have some excellent commenters, I do have some right loons as well and I even had one Yank who made Robbo look normal. Do you have the link to the the story only? Mind you I am quite enjoying some of the commentary on it. |
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Post by iainbhx on Oct 25, 2014 12:43:57 GMT
Just read Story-Only, whilst I have some excellent commenters, I do have some right loons as well and I even had one Yank who made Robbo look normal. Do you have the link to the the story only? Mind you I am quite enjoying some of the commentary on it. Most of my commenters are lovely... |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,427
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Post by iain on Oct 25, 2014 14:12:42 GMT
What happened with OTL SDP MPs like Rodgers and Wrigglesworth? Did they all just stay in Labour?
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Post by iainbhx on Oct 25, 2014 14:29:05 GMT
What happened with OTL SDP MPs like Rodgers and Wrigglesworth? Did they all just stay in Labour? Yes, there is no SDP. There will never be an SDP well except in the minds of an obscure Scunthorpe butcher. There have been two significant defections to the Liberals - Shirley Williams (who of course wasn't an MP) and Robert Maclennan and a handful of councillors. Not that some of the others aren't angry, but they've stayed to fight and most still have their seats. |
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,589
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Post by cibwr on Oct 25, 2014 14:42:18 GMT
Thank you - reading them in tandem! |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,427
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Post by iain on Oct 25, 2014 14:44:10 GMT
What happened with OTL SDP MPs like Rodgers and Wrigglesworth? Did they all just stay in Labour? Yes, there is no SDP. There will never be an SDP well except in the minds of an obscure Scunthorpe butcher. There have been two significant defections to the Liberals - Shirley Williams (who of course wasn't an MP) and Robert Maclennan and a handful of councillors. Not that some of the others aren't angry, but they've stayed to fight and most still have their seats. They the only two you liked?  |
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Post by iainbhx on Oct 25, 2014 15:00:24 GMT
Yes, there is no SDP. There will never be an SDP well except in the minds of an obscure Scunthorpe butcher. There have been two significant defections to the Liberals - Shirley Williams (who of course wasn't an MP) and Robert Maclennan and a handful of councillors. Not that some of the others aren't angry, but they've stayed to fight and most still have their seats. They the only two you liked? Sorry, are you suggesting that I *liked* a Soggy, thems fighting words. No, between the loss of Roy Jenkins (who was in Brussels) and the Dislocation, the Labour party just about hung together, so far... |
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Post by iainbhx on Oct 25, 2014 18:03:30 GMT
And finally, Esther...
The British General Election of 1982
(GB results only)
Conservative Party Margaret Thatcher 14,089,945 43.37% 344 seats
Labour Party Michael Foot 11,257,903 34.65% 252 seats
Liberal Party David Steel 6,282,061 19.35% 24 seats
Ecology Party 253,018 0.79%
Scottish National Party 128,779 0.40%
Plaid Cymru 125,427 0.39% 3 seats
Others 349,523 1.07%
12 UUP, 3 SDLP, 1 Alliance and 1 Independent elected in Northern Ireland
1 Independent elected in the Channel Islands
Conservative Majority of 47 over all other parties
CONSERVATIVE GAINS FROM LABOUR
Battersea, South
Birmingham, Erdington
Bury & Radcliffe
Darlington
Derby, North
Dulwich
Edmonton
Halifax
Islington, Central
Keighley
Kettering
Leicester, South
Lewisham, East
Lewisham, West
Mitcham & Morden
Norwich, South
Norwood
Nottingham, North
Nottingham, West
Swansea, West
LABOUR GAINS FROM CONSERVATIVE
Bebington & Ellesmere Port
Brentford & Isleworth
Hornchurch
Liverpool, Garston
LABOUR GAIN FROM SPEAKER
Cardiff, West
LABOUR GAINS FROM SCOTTISH NATIONAL PARTY
Dundee, East
Western Isles
LIBERAL GAINS FROM CONSERVATIVE
Cambridge
Chelmsford
Chippenham
Montgomeryshire
North Cornwall
North Devon
Richmond-upon-Thames
Ross & Cromarty
Salisbury
West Aberdeenshire
Yeovil
LIBERAL GAIN FROM LABOUR
Blyth
Caithness & Sutherland
PLAID CYMRU GAIN FROM LABOUR
Carmarthen
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Post by mattb on Oct 25, 2014 18:42:57 GMT
Blyth ?!
(Richmond not showing on map?)
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Post by iainbhx on Oct 25, 2014 18:50:18 GMT
Blyth ?! (Richmond not showing on map?) Yes, Blyth.  and I can see Richmond on my map but it is very, very small You need this background piece The Guardian
14th October 1982
Blyth is about as far from Metropolitan London as you can get and still remain in England, best known to most of the country for giant-killing Non-League team Blyth Spartans, it has lived off shipbuilding and collieries for decades but has seen more and more people commute to jobs in Newcastle over the years. Both the shipbuilding and the coal industry have been saved by the Dislocation, but the coal reserves are thought not to last more than another generation. The fishing industry is restarting here, having diminished substantially but new stocks and no competition mean expansion. The old shipyards are being reopened as well, but the pulp traffic from Scandinavia is a shadow of its former self.
For decades, Blyth has elected Labour MPs, Alfred Robens, then Eddie Milne and then John Ryman. But Milne was controversial in his exposure of corruption in the North East and was deselected, he stood as an Independent Labour candidate and won in February 1974 only to be narrowly defeated in October 1974. His replacement, John Ryman has been no less controversial, a fox-hunting barrister somewhere to the right of Genghis Khan, his frequent absences from Parliament, his bizarre behaviour and his neglect of the constituency have led to his deselection and replacement by a coalfield firebrand Ronnie Campbell.
However, Blyth being Blyth, all is not that simple. Ryman is standing as an independent - although he doesn't seem to have that much support but leaflets are going out in his name and Newcastle's libel lawyers are quite excited by them. Milne is extremely unwell and declined to stand, but his small group of Independent councillors are backing the Liberal candidate - Rosemary Brownlow, whose husband had been Milne's agent for his independent run in 1979 when he managed nearly 30% of the vote. Milne has not formally backed Brownlow, but has been heard to say that he'd rather have her than any of the others.
Even the Tories have been active, they nearly doubled their vote in 1979 due to a strong campaign by Emma Nicholson who was dislocated when working abroad for Save the Children. Her replacement hasn't been quite so active, but with the local industry booming and his campaign to bring the Metro to Blyth and Ashington, Hargreaves has achieved a considerable impact and for the first time in decades, he has a handful of councillors to support him. Some say that if Miss Nicholson had still been the candidate, the Tories might have had a chance.
With three weeks to go, campaigning is hotting up even beyond the levels seen in 1974. In an area of mainly safe seats, people arrive to help every day from all three parties, local feeling is that Labour will hold on, but it depends on Milne, if he comes out in favour of Mrs Brownlow, then she may well have a chance at becoming the second Liberal in Northumberland.And the Blyth result BLYTH LIBERAL GAIN FROM LABOURElectorate: 82,648 Turnout: 75.3% Brownlow Lib 21,258 34.1% Campbell Lab 20,641 33.1% Hargreaves Con 14.296 23.0% Ryman Ind Lab 6,071 9.7% |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 25, 2014 19:28:29 GMT
And finally, Esther... The British General Election of 198212 UUP, 3 SDLP, 1 Alliance and 1 Independent elected in Northern Ireland 1 Independent elected in the Channel Islands Conservative Majority of 47 over all other parties CONSERVATIVE GAINS FROM LABOURBasildon At the risk that I've also missed some background, how come there are 17 seats already in NI if the 1979 boundaries were being used as there were still only 12 seats? Basildon had already been gained by the Conservatives in 1979 |
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Post by iainbhx on Oct 25, 2014 21:08:47 GMT
And finally, Esther... The British General Election of 198212 UUP, 3 SDLP, 1 Alliance and 1 Independent elected in Northern Ireland 1 Independent elected in the Channel Islands Conservative Majority of 47 over all other parties CONSERVATIVE GAINS FROM LABOURBasildon At the risk that I've also missed some background, how come there are 17 seats already in NI if the 1979 boundaries were being used as there were still only 12 seats? Basildon had already been gained by the Conservatives in 1979 Basically the Foot challenges to the boundaries succeeded because of considerable electorate changes in some areas, but it was agreed that the NI ones could go ahead Edited for Basildon, how could I forget Spanker. |
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Post by Tangent on Oct 26, 2014 20:08:26 GMT
Just read Story-Only, whilst I have some excellent commenters, I do have some right loons as well and I even had one Yank who made Robbo look normal. I'm afraid that it's so engrossing I have to read the main thread to catch the nuances - up to this August so far. I am really kicking myself for missing the opportunity to comment on some earlier sections. |
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johnr
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 1,944
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Post by johnr on Oct 29, 2014 9:32:41 GMT
This is a really excellent What-If. I have to admit that the Tories have been reasonably competent.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
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Post by Khunanup on Oct 29, 2014 13:01:12 GMT
This is a really excellent What-If. I have to admit that the Tories have been reasonably competent. I'm really enjoying it too. I think actually this is the perfect scenario for Thatcher where being tough, uncompromising but at the same time pragmatic (I've particularly enjoyed her putting Keith Joseph in his place!) because of circumstance is entirely necessary. I do worry about the potential swing back to destructive ideological idiocy post election though as things in the world are considered to be 'sorted'. |
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Post by iainbhx on Oct 30, 2014 7:43:10 GMT
There will be some move back towards ideology as things normalise, but "normal" is probably 5 years off and any serious markets are going to be internal for decades.
Europe, frankly, is going to be a bit of a mess for a long time, although some parts will do better than others. The events of 1990/1740 are going to be interesting and crucial for Europe.
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Post by greenchristian on Oct 30, 2014 20:45:13 GMT
One thing I've noticed reading through is that you've left the weather patterns unchanged. Whilst the climate won't be measurably affected by the dislocation for decades (or longer, if this industrial revolution ultimately burns fewer fossil fuels), day-to-day and week-to-week weather patterns are a chaotic system (i.e. small changes produce big effects - hence the butterfly effect), and should have started noticeably diverging from historical records within a couple of weeks.
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Post by greenhert on Jan 8, 2017 19:45:49 GMT
And finally, Esther... The British General Election of 1982(GB results only) Conservative Party Margaret Thatcher 14,089,945 43.37% 344 seats Labour Party Michael Foot 11,257,903 34.65% 252 seats Liberal Party David Steel 6,282,061 19.35% 24 seats Ecology Party 253,018 0.79% Scottish National Party 128,779 0.40% Plaid Cymru 125,427 0.39% 3 seats Others 349,523 1.07% 12 UUP, 3 SDLP, 1 Alliance and 1 Independent elected in Northern Ireland 1 Independent elected in the Channel Islands Conservative Majority of 47 over all other parties CONSERVATIVE GAINS FROM LABOURBattersea, South Birmingham, Erdington Bury & Radcliffe Darlington Derby, North Dulwich Edmonton Halifax Islington, Central Keighley Kettering Leicester, South Lewisham, East Lewisham, West Mitcham & Morden Norwich, South Norwood Nottingham, North Nottingham, West Swansea, West LABOUR GAINS FROM CONSERVATIVEBebington & Ellesmere Port Brentford & Isleworth Hornchurch Liverpool, Garston LABOUR GAIN FROM SPEAKERCardiff, West LABOUR GAINS FROM SCOTTISH NATIONAL PARTYDundee, East Western Isles LIBERAL GAINS FROM CONSERVATIVECambridge Chelmsford Chippenham Montgomeryshire North Cornwall North Devon Richmond-upon-Thames Ross & Cromarty Salisbury West Aberdeenshire Yeovil LIBERAL GAIN FROM LABOURBlyth Caithness & Sutherland PLAID CYMRU GAIN FROM LABOURCarmarthen I also think that in this particular scenario Louth would have been won by the Liberals on February 1974 boundaries, and possibly Leominster and Skipton as well.
Not only was John Sellick's personal vote clearly very strong (Mr Sellick was a Liberal candidate in Louth and later East Lindsey and polled well over 30% for the Liberals each time, even increasing his own vote share in 1979!), but also the Conservative MP for Louth, Michael Brotherton, got himself into a bit of trouble when he was convicted of driving offences in the early 1980s, which partly explains why in real life he was deselected in favour of Michael Brown (the Louth constituency was abolished in real life being split between Brigg & Cleethorpes and East Lindsey due to the foolish decision to create Humberside as a local government unit) for the 1983 general election.
Roger Pincham would probably have been able to scrape it in the old version of Leominster (for 1983 it had several solidly Conservative villages added to it, ending any realistic chance of a Liberal gain) and possibly Claire Brooks in Skipton; both of them nearly won those seats in October 1974.
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and I can see Richmond on my map but it is very, very small
