The Azure Main 1982 election

[Tangent]

Oct 19, 2014 21:30:38 GMT iainbhx said:

Oct 19, 2014 20:54:10 GMT Tangent said:

I shall definitely read through it, Iain - I have sometimes mulled through similar scenarios over different timescales.

Without taking you too much over old ground, what did you do about food, given that Europe simply won't have the infrastructure to make up the difference, let alone non-European sources? And did you ever consider having Henry Kissinger in the UK (or sunning himself in Bermuda) during the Disruption? I can see him sailing for Vienna as soon as is convenient, and he would be a remarkable ally/adversary.

There is rationing, there will be rationing for a few years yet. The UK buys food from anywhere, which is causing both economic growth and also problems in some areas. The main export sources at the moment are Ireland, Denmark and Poland-Lithuania.

My first reply ought to be curses, as I have just spent the best part of one night and my entire leisure time during non-working hours reading your story-only thread and as much of the full thread as I could.

But it's a magnificent read, and it's a pity I hadn't come across it much earlier.

[J.G.Harston]

Oct 14, 2014 20:26:24 GMT iainbhx said:

... so we are left with the old 1974 boundaries plus the additional seat of The Channel Islands (they were annexed).

eh? what happened there? my post vanished. I'll see if I can remember it.

I've been trying to work out a POD which results in the Isle of Man becoming an integral part of England as an English county - it would be exactly one UK parliamentary seat, which is neat - it seems so imporobable for it to end up in the status it has. But, all the PODs I've looked at results in IoM being *more* independent. The closest I've got is Cromwell annexing Man instead of appointing a governor, but that wouldn't have stopped the Stanleys restoring the previous status at the Restoration.

[greenchristian]

That Peckham result is an interesting one...

[iainbhx]

Oct 22, 2014 15:45:26 GMT greenchristian said:

That Peckham result is an interesting one...

For the figures, or Peckham's new MP Cherie Booth?

[iainbhx]

Oct 22, 2014 7:59:28 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Oct 14, 2014 20:26:24 GMT iainbhx said:

... so we are left with the old 1974 boundaries plus the additional seat of The Channel Islands (they were annexed).

eh? what happened there? my post vanished. I'll see if I can remember it.

I've been trying to work out a POD which results in the Isle of Man becoming an integral part of England as an English county - it would be exactly one UK parliamentary seat, which is neat - it seems so imporobable for it to end up in the status it has. But, all the PODs I've looked at results in IoM being *more* independent. The closest I've got is Cromwell annexing Man instead of appointing a governor, but that wouldn't have stopped the Stanleys restoring the previous status at the Restoration.

I had HMG annex the Channel Islands as they were in 1730 and essentially Feudal. MAFF wanted to try out agricultural uplifting, it's been a success.

As the ASB's were too lazy to separate the IOM from GB and NI, the 1980 IOM came with them and there was no need to change status. However, it is perfectly 1 MP sized.

[greenchristian]

Oct 22, 2014 16:22:18 GMT iainbhx said:

Oct 22, 2014 15:45:26 GMT greenchristian said:

That Peckham result is an interesting one...

For the figures, or Peckham's new MP Cherie Booth?

Booth instead of Harman.

[iainbhx]

BBC Election 82
5th November 1982, 1:40am

David Dimbleby: There's a lot of people milling around there, we are told that the declaration is imminent. Ah, maybe not. Peter, have you something quick?

Peter Snow: Well, whilst not a change of party, here's Eton and Slough

Eton and Slough
LABOUR HOLD

Electorate: 69,219
Turnout: 83.2%

Lestor Lab 21,698 37.4% (-5.2%)
Watts Con 18,118 31.4% (-8.4%)
Ward Lib 11,431 19.8% (+9%)
Brooker Ind 4,883 8.5% (n/a)
Willem Eco 1,516 2.6% (n/a)

Majority: 3,580 (6%)
Swing: Con to Lab 1.6%

Mr Brooker has form as an independent Conservative here, but he stood on a platform of massive revitalisation for Heathrow and the surrounding area.

DD: Strong Liberal vote.

Anthony King: Slough has quite a few Liberals on the council and has had for some time, but it is a good result.

DD: They are still faffing about in Finchley. Lord Sutch is looking very cheerful. I understand Jonathan Aitken has held his seat in Thanet, he was, of course, linked with Carol Thatcher for a while.

Robin Day: He has been someone who was expected to be part of Government but has never fulfilled his promise.

DD: Marcus Fox back in Shipley, Labour hold Liverpool Scotland Exchange - a very small seat.

AK: Strong swings to Labour in Liverpool tonight.

DD: Lord James-Douglas Hamilton back in Edinburgh West looks like a very similar majority, but as the heir to a peerage always a potential by-election there. Ah, hang on, we have action in Finchley.

<Cut-over> And the total number of votes cast </cut-Over>

AK: Mrs Thatcher was just short of an 8,000 majority last time.

<Cut-Over> Anscomb (Revolutionary Communist) 176, Joachim (Liberal) 6,692, Russon (Empire Loyalist) 1,027, Spiegel (Labour) 9,352, Sutch (Loony) 356, Thatcher (Conservative) 20,951, Wilkinson (Ecology) 1,264 and I hereby declare Margaret Hilda Thatcher to be duly elected as the member of Parliament for Finchley. <cut-over>

DD: Over 12,000 majority, a strong improvement. We will just hear a little of her speech, she tends to make them brief.

Margaret Thatcher: .. the counting staff, the polling staff and of course the police. Due to their efforts, we have declared early, so many seats are still in doubt, so I will leave the politics for later until the result is certain. I'd just like to thank the people of Finchley for putting their trust in me again and I look forward to representing them for many more years. I'd also like to thank my opponents for their clean, decent campaign which has been up to the highest standards of elections in Finchley.

DD: Not saying anything political that's interesting. Seats coming in apace now Peter Shore re-elected in Stepney & Poplar and the controversial Jeremy Corbyn in Islington North.

AK: Which of course has led to what looks like a very tight result in Islington Central.

RD: Mr Mellor, Mrs Thatcher says nothing political, can we read anything into this.

David Mellor: Well, she has declared a little earlier than usual, there are still a lot of seats in doubt

RD: There isn't some doubt creeping in is there?

DM: I think it is fairly clear that we have been re-elected, but I suspect not making a specific remark about the size of the majority that is just not tempting fate.

AK: We are now predicting a Conservative majority of 41.

RD: Mr Kinn-ock, for what will probably be your last remark. Is Michael Foot going to stay on?

Neil Kinnock: I don't know, I don't think there is much appetite in the wider party for a leadership contest.

RD: Oh come on.

NK: I think there is an appetite amongst certain groups and factions on the right and the left, but not with the broad mass of the party.

RD: But if such a vacancy did occur, your name has been mentioned.

NK: It is far too early to speculate, Robin. I appreciate that my name has been mentioned but so have many others.

RD: I think you are being very coy, Mr Kinn-ock.

DD: We now have another seat changing hands - Lewisham West and another, Darlington both gained by the Conservatives.

AK: We are starting to fill in our last holes now, only East Anglia and Wales remain relatively result free so far. There is a fairly confused pattern across the country, the national swing which took a hit in credibility as a concept in 1979 has taken another bigger hit.

PS: From a discussion earlier, Bethnal Green and Bow returns Ian Mikardo with a decent if diminished majority.

EDINBURGH, WEST
CONSERVATIVE HOLD

Electorate: 56,392
Turnout: 79.7%

Douglas-Hamilton Con 19,379 43.1% (-1.4%)
King Lib 13,684 30.4% (+13.2%)
Wood Lab 9,955 22.1% (-6.8%)
Nicoll SNP 1,030 2.3% (-6.9%)
Beale Ind 936 2.1% (n/a)

Majority: 5,695 (6.7%)
Swing: Con to Lib 7.6%


And the first result from the East Midlands which I know Tony has been craving

SOUTH EAST DERBYSHIRE
CONSERVATIVE HOLD

Electorate: 59,660
Turnout: 82.2%

Rost Con 25,399 51.8% (+0.3%)
Corbett Lab 13,185 26.9% (-9.7%)
Moore Lib 7,775 15.8% (+4)
Camm Ind 2,693 5.49% (n/a)

Majority: 12,214 (24.9%)
Swing: Lab to Con 5%

A more left wing independent there, Mr Camm stood as a Pro-Irish Social Demcrat Anti-Bennite.

DD: Shades of Bill Boakes. Manchester starting to declare now with no changes of party.

PS: Here's the result of the two announced gains, quite different.

DARLINGTON
CONSERVATIVE GAIN FROM LABOUR

Electorate: 63,773
Turnout: 82.7%

Fallon 22,537 42.7% (-0.7%)
Fletcher Lab 22,251 42.1% (-3.4%)
Evans Lib 7,892 14.9% (+4.7%)
Witham Ind 111 0.2% (n/a)

Majority: 282
Swing: Lab to Con 1.3%


AK: Small swing but just enough for Michael Fallon

LEWISHAM, WEST
CONSERVATIVE GAIN FROM LABOUR

Electorate: 60,751
Turnout: 85.3%

Maples Con 24,166 46.6% (+2.4%)
Price Lab 21,308 41.1% (-5.4%)
Mooney Lib 6,395 12.3% (+5.0%)

Majority: 2,858 (5.5%)
Swing: Lab to Con 3.8%

AK: Whilst a larger swing in South London. We understand Labour have lost Lewisham East as well, but this has yet to be confirmed.

DD: Conservative seats starting to come in now, Newbury where two elections ago the Liberals had high hopes. Horncastle in Lincolnshire which has also had strong Liberal results. For Labour John Gilbert in Dudley East and possibly the best known Liverpool councillor Derek Hatton makes the jump to Parliament in Liverpool, Kirkdale.

PS: Both have good Liberal performances putting them back in contention in at least Newbury. However Liverpool will probably set the record in this election 79.8% of the voters went Labour in the Scotland Exchange division. Oh my. Oh my.

DD: Can we get that confirmed.

AK: The Asteroid has actually shattered the planet.

DD: Keighley comes out of recount as a hold for the Conservative's Gary Waller as Margaret Thatcher gets into her car for the short journey to Smith Square.

PS: As Keighley comes out of recount, Birmingham Perry Barr goes into it and that Scottish result is confirmed.

DD: The Labour Party have taken the Western Isles from the SNP and by what amounts to a considerable margin in that seat. Unless there is a miracle, the SNP are out of the next parliament.

AK: I must admit I am surprised, politics is incredibly personal in that seat.

RD: Perhaps we should try to get Margo back on.

Lord Avebury: Or perhaps leave Scottish Nationalism to its time of grief. De mortuis and all that.

RD: <small smile> So, Lord Avebury, you appear to be moving back into the position you were in 1974. What do you think of that?

LA: Well, the vote shares look very similar, but some of the seats look quite different and I see some very good advances in other seats. I think we've done very well considering 1979 and national situation.

RD: Tony King thinks you will get 18 seats, what have those at the top told you.

LA: I'm afraid that they didn't share any latest news with me, Robin, but I understand that 20 was considered possible if not probable.

DD: Well, we will leave our panel there for a moment. I understand that we are waiting for Mr Healey to get to a TV camera in Leeds.

PS: The Conservatives have taken Edmonton in London.

WESTERN ISLES
LABOUR GAIN FROM SNP

Electorate: 22,396
Turnout: 70.4%

Wilson Lab 6,432 40.8% (+8.5%)
Stewart SNP 4,336 27.5% (-24.9%)
Morrison Con 3,337 21.2% (+11.6%)
MacLeod Lib 1,659 10.5% (+5.9%)

Majority: 2,096 (13.3%)
Swing: SNP to Lab 16.4%

AK: I'm almost speechless. That's actually the SNP's best result of the night.

DD: And a massively reduced majority for the Conservatives in Spelthorne down from 16,000 to 7,000.

AK: The Heathrow environs are producing terrible results for the Tories - luckily there are few marginals in the area.

DD: We will just take a very short break for non-election news at this point.

PS: Well, are truly in rush hour now, but there are still a lot of seats to come in, at this point Labour have 137 seats, the Conservatives 116 seats, the Liberals 4 seats and UUP have 1 seat.

[iainbhx]

Oct 22, 2014 21:07:31 GMT greenchristian said:

Oct 22, 2014 16:22:18 GMT iainbhx said:

For the figures, or Peckham's new MP Cherie Booth?

Booth instead of Harman.

Harman lost in Mitcham and Morden, where she had stood for selection (and beat Booth for it). Booth was the replacement for Harry Lamborn who died just before the election was announced. Harriet will be joining the commons at a by-election.

[Pete Whitehead]

Why is there such a strong swing to the Tories in inner SOuth London?

[cibwr]

Oct 17, 2014 6:49:03 GMT iainbhx said:

I would suggest reading the second paragraph again.

This is an Island in the Sea of Time scenario, the United Kingdom and the Isle of Man have been taken from 1980 and placed into the world of 1730. Margaret Thatcher may be Prime Minister, but Louis XV reigns at Versailles, the Maratha Confederacy threatens British Bombay and the Spanish have found out how to lose an entire navy in a morning.

LOL Damn you Iain... now on page 100 of it, only 900 to go! Excellently written - I don't usually enjoy ITSOT stories but this is excellent!

[Tangent]

Oct 23, 2014 11:44:04 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Why is there such a strong swing to the Tories in inner SOuth London?

Having got so far on Iain's timetable: the government post-Dislocation is absolutely committed to the eradication of slavery in Her Majesty's dominions (including what would have become the United States), and in tackling slavery (to a more muted extent) among the European Great Powers, and many of those of Caribbean origin in the modern UK have been recruited to assist with the eradication and the long process of dealing with the slaves afterwards - both by recruitment to the Armed Forces and by various voluntary and charitable efforts. The effect has been a significant shift in the black vote towards Thatcher, although Labour will still capture the largest share of the black vote.

[iainbhx]

Oct 23, 2014 18:44:31 GMT cibwr said:

Oct 17, 2014 6:49:03 GMT iainbhx said:

I would suggest reading the second paragraph again.

This is an Island in the Sea of Time scenario, the United Kingdom and the Isle of Man have been taken from 1980 and placed into the world of 1730. Margaret Thatcher may be Prime Minister, but Louis XV reigns at Versailles, the Maratha Confederacy threatens British Bombay and the Spanish have found out how to lose an entire navy in a morning.

LOL Damn you Iain... now on page 100 of it, only 900 to go! Excellently written - I don't usually enjoy ITSOT stories but this is excellent!

Just read Story-Only, whilst I have some excellent commenters, I do have some right loons as well and I even had one Yank who made Robbo look normal.

[iainbhx]

Oct 23, 2014 11:44:04 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Why is there such a strong swing to the Tories in inner SOuth London?

Two reasons.

1) Lots and lots of people who previously couldn't vote can now vote, especially in London. Most of them are voting Conservative, except former US citizens who are somewhat inclined to vote Liberal.

2) "Miss Maggie - The Freedom Lady" - the slaves of the Caribbean and British North America have been freed, by a Tory government, the majority of Afro-Caribbeans still vote Labour, but I lot now vote for the Tories or at least are willing to give them a try against Labour's "give them all independence immediately" policy.

[iainbhx]

BBC Election 82
5th November 1982, 2:30am

David Dimbleby: Results are now coming it at about 2 a minute, we try to put everyone up on the screen but they don't stay up for long. Inevitably, there is the odd mistake, we said that Gary Waller's result in Keighley was a Hold for the Conservatives, in actual fact it was a gain. Peter?

Peter Snow: Well, we have just 90 minutes of programming left, but we expect to have about another 200 results in that time. Here's Keighley

Keighley
CONSERVATIVE GAIN FROM LABOUR

Electorate: 56,859
Turnout: 85.5%

Waller Con 21,692 44.1% (-0.6%)
Cryer Lab 21,048 42.8% (-2.1%)
Wells Lib 5,234 10.6% (+1.3%)
Penny Eco 1,215 2.5% (+2%)

Majority: 644 (1.3%)
Swing: Lab to Con 0.7%

That's Labour's second most marginal seat, the Labour vote has held up reasonably well in Yorkshire, but this was always going to be a difficult seat for them.

DD: I understand the Liberal leader David Steel has held his Scottish seat with a very much increased majority. That's their fourth seat of the night. Roy Hattersley is returned at Birmingham, Sparkbrook, he's increased his majority as well.

PS: And for a contrast here's Edmonton in North London.

EDMONTON
CONSERVATIVE GAIN FROM LABOUR

Electorate: 59,958
Turnout: 81.9%

Twinn Con 22,159 45.1% (+2.5%)
Graham Lab 19,242 39.2% (-7.9%)
Brass Lib 7,710 15.7% (+7.2%)

Majority: 2,883 (5.9%)
Swing: Lab to Con 5.3%

PS: As you can see, a much better result for the Conservatives here in North London where they are doing much better.

Anthony King: Conservative performance is fairly patchy, but there are some high spots, of course, they took most of the Labour seats in the area back in 1979. I would note. however, that they appear to be struggling in the new towns.

DD: Brian Mahwinney re-elected in Peterborough he's increased his majority by a couple of thousand.

AK: Not really a surprise, his seat has 10,000 more voters than it did and that's without changes. Also Birmingham is all over the place, a swing to Labour in Sparkbrook and a swing to the Tories in Hall Green and from what I heard the Second City may have both a Labour Gain and a Conservative Gain. Of course, the Tories were hoping to pick up two seats there.

DD: Well, we hope to have a word with David Steel later towards the end of the programme, also Dennis Healey has been held up with his imminent declaration which leaves Robin looking a little forlorn over here.

PS: A Second recount in Islington Central.

Robin Day: And I'm waiting for Sir Geoffrey Howe as well

DD: And a Labour gain, Liverpool Garston and David Owen home with an small increase in his majority in Plymouth, Devonport. Where's the prediction now, Anthony?

AK: It has stayed fairly solidly at a majority of 43 for a while now.

RD: I'm very glad Sir David Owen has survived, he is always interesting to interview.

PS: Just to go back to the Swingometer, the Swing has increased slightly. If we let it rise to the average, it goes up, very, very slowly to cover a mere 10 seats. Of those that have declared, all have gone Labour.

DD: Hate to spoil this Peter, but I understand that Birmingham Perry Barr has just been held by Jeff Rooker.

PS: All but one of these seats that have declared have gone Conservative. Normally I would say we could be confident that Bury and Radcliffe.

DD: Has just been called as a Conservative Gain.

RD: The returning officers are watching to try and spoil this, Peter.

PS: It does seem like it, but seats beyond this have gone, Lewisham W, Darlington and Edmonton.

DD: Our first result from Ulster, Belfast South has been held with a solid majority for the UUP over the Alliance.

PS: Here's Liverpool

Liverpool Garston
LABOUR GAIN FROM CONSERVATIVE

Electorate: 79,517
Turnout: 80.6%

Loyden Lab 30,933 48.2% (+4.9%)
Thornton Con 26,948 42.0% (-6.1%)
Davidson Lib 6,281 9.8% (+1.4%)

Majority: 3,985 (6.2%)
Swing: Con to Lab 5.5%

AK: All the Liverpool seats have shown swings to Labour and the effect may be in other parts of Merseyside as well.

DD: Keith Speed, the Navy Minister returned in Ashford and the leader of Plaid Cymru Dafydd Wigley returned in Caernarvon and Swindon is a Labour hold as well. I'm quite surprised about that.

PS: Here's Labours most marginal seat

BURY AND RADCLIFFE
CONSERVATIVE GAIN FROM LABOUR

Electorate: 78,937
Turnout: 87.5%

Burt Con 30,591 44.2% (-1%)
White Lab 29,783 43.1% (-2.2%)
Wilson Lib 8,759 12.7% (+3.8%)

Majority: 808 (1.1%)
Swing: Lab to Con: 0.6%


AK: Just to confirm, there is a tiny swing against Wigley in Caernarfon, just over 1%.

RD: So there will be one Nationalist in the House of Commons.

DD: Just over one hour to go of the programme, will we see a result before we go off air?

PS: It is unlikely that one side or another will have a majority by the time we go off air, but that has been true in most elections despite more seats declaring on the night.

DD: The classic bellwether of Birmingham, Yardley has stayed Conservative and Belfast North is retained by the UUP, Alliance second there as well. Labour have gained Brentford and Isleworth, isn't that well down the target list Peter?

PS: It would have taken over a 4% swing for Labour to win there. Well into Labour being the largest party territory.

AK: Labour have done well, or rather the Conservatives have done poorly all over the Heathrow area.

DD: Now that's interesting, there is a recount in Cambridge.

AK: That would be surprising, but again, celebrity candidate.

PS: And the Conservatives have taken Lewisham East, which has been forecast. Assuming it is Shirley Williams who is challenging in Cambridge, that's so far up the Liberal target list as to be by-election territory. Ah, I have Brentford.

BRENTFORD AND ISLEWORTH
LABOUR GAIN FROM CONSERVATIVE

Electorate: 75,962
Turnout: 84.3%

Rowlands Lab 27,075 41.8% (+1.4%)
Hayhoe Con 26,297 40.6% (-8.8%)
Miller Lib 7,660 11.8% (+4.3%)
Wilks Eco 2,294 3.5% (+2.7%)
Anderson Ind 1,478 2.3% (n/a)

Majority: 778 (1.2%)
Swing: Con to Lab 5.2%

DD: Of course, we are assuming that the recount involves Mrs Williams.

AK: It is unlikely to be for a deposit.

DD: Clement Freud home and dry again in the Isle of Ely, a very solid looking 7,000 majority.

PS: We have enough seats in now to make a decent prediction of the vote share - we think the Conservatives will get 43% of the vote, Labour 35% of the vote and the Liberals will get 19% of the vote.

AK: The majority prediction is staying very stable now.

DD: The Tories have lost Bebington and Ellesmere Port, a very marginal seat on the fringes of Merseyside, but have gain Dulwich handsomely by around 4,000 and there's a recount in Birmingham, Northfield.

PS: Here's Lewisham East, a bit closer than the other one.

LEWISHAM, EAST
CONSERVATIVE GAIN FROM LABOUR

Electorate: 69,332
Turnout: 81.4%

Bowden Con 25,701 45.0% (+2.2%)
Moyle Lab 24,158 42.3% (-3.7%)
Roberts 5,755 10.1% (+1.5%)
Grassard Eco 1,537 2.7% (n/a)

Majority: 1,543 (2.7%)
Swing: Lab to Con 2.9%

DD: Barnsley held by Labour, Arthur Scargill's wife was standing for Socialist Labour, she lost her deposit. Eric Heffer back in Liverpool, Walton and Plaid have made it 2 for 2, Dafydd Elis Thomas has held Merioneth.

AK: Jim Callaghan has just held his seat as well

DD: Robin we have just under an hour to go. Have you a panel yet.

RD: I am told five more minutes for the hero of Yeovil to be ready in Bristol, Sir Geoffrey Howe here in the studio and Roy Hattersley from Pebble Mill.

DD: Peter, where are we now?

PS: Labour have 169 seats, the Conservatives have 160, the Liberals have 6 and the Others have 4.

[Andrew_S]

More please...

Of course in June 1983 none of the Lewisham results had been declared when the BBC programme went off the air at about 4:10am IIRC.

[iainbhx]

Oct 23, 2014 23:03:55 GMT Andrew_S said:

More please...

Of course in June 1983 none of the Lewisham results had been declared when the BBC programme went off the air at about 4:10am IIRC.

As these are the old seats, I calculated a running order from 1979 rather than 1983.

One more of these and then Election 82 goes off the air.

[iain]

Do we get a map?

[Pete Whitehead]

I'll do a map if there isn't one and Iain can give me all the results. I'd like to go and look at the whole thread in this other place but registering sounds like a hassle and reading the thing could be a bit too time consuming

[iainbhx]

There will be a map at the end.

[iainbhx]

BBC Election 82
5th November 1982, 3:15am

David Dimbleby: So how many more result before we go off air, Peter?

Peter Snow: It is difficult to say, probably around a hundred or so, with high turnouts and some very large electorates things are a little slower than 1979. Of course, around one hundred seats count later today.

Anthony King: Of course, are also now in the land of a lot of very safe Conservative seats, which will give us more for Robin and his panel to discuss and rather less for myself and Peter.

DD: But we still have some interest, the Conservatives have gained Swansea West - rather a surprise, the old Liberal target of Cheadle has remained very Conservative and there is a recount in Halifax.

AK: Of course, Cheadle isn't really the marginal now, that's Hazel Grove, but both have five figure conservative majorities. I'm not that surprised by Swansea West, the Conservatives have done quite well in West Glamorgan.

PS: Perhaps some results whilst Robin sorts himself out a little.

BEBINGTON AND ELLESMERE PORT
LABOUR GAIN FROM CONSERVATIVE

Electorate: 95,045
Turnout: 84.3%

Davies Lab 34,069 42.5% (+0.3%)
Porter Con 33,122 41.3% (-2.5%)
George Lib 11,148 13.9% (+2.2%)

Majority: 947 (1.2%)
Swing: Con to Lab 1.4%

DD: I'm not surprised they took a while to count that. A high turnout on a 95,000 electorate.

AK: This is the Merseyside effect, of course, it was more like 5% in Liverpool proper.

DULWICH
CONSERVATIVE GAIN FROM LABOUR

Electorate: 61,837
Turnout: 79.9%

Bowden Con 20,693 41.4% (-1.3%)
Silkin Lab 16,687 33.4% (-9.7%)
Pearson Lib 9,089 18.2% (+7.2%)
Gofton Ind 1,801 3.6% (n/a)
Smart Eco 1,541 3.1% (+2.0%)
Patel Ind 210 0.4% (n/a)

Majority: 4,006 (8%)
Swing: Lab to Con 4.2%

PS: Another interesting result for the Ecology party who have been picking up a 2-3% in most of the seats they stood in.

SWANSEA WEST
CONSERVATIVE GAIN FROM LABOUR

Electorate: 66,924
Turnout: 84.4%

Lewis Con 25,334 44.8% (-0.5%)
Williams Lab 23,667 41.9% (-4.2%)
Ball Lib 4,939 8.7% (+2.1%)
Oubridge Eco 1,481 2.6% (n/a)
Pennar PC 1,091 1.9% (-0.0)

Majority: 1,667 (2.9%)
Swing: Lab to Con 1.8%

PS: I can't help feeling that the Scottish Nationalist are feeling very, very envious of Plaid Cymru now.

DD: <smiles> A recount in Norwich South, whilst Cambridge has moved to a Full Recount and Ken Weetch has held Ipswich for by just 700 votes.

RD: I have Sir Jeremy Ashdown in Bristol, Roy Hattersley at Pebble Mill in Birmingham and Sir Geoffrey Howe sitting here with me. It looks like another Conservative government with a very similar majority, set for a solid four to five years of rule. So Sir Jeremy, do you wish you had stayed in the Diplomatic Service?

Paddy Ashdown: Please Robin, call me Paddy. I think it is a very exciting time to be joining the House of Commons, there are very important decisions to be made and I look forward to participating in the debates.

RD: But surely another Conservative majority will just mean that you are sidelined?

PA: I think we've seen that people from third parties can make an impact on Parliament and can also be excellent local advocates.

RD: Roy Hattersley is it going to be boring?

Roy Hattersley: That depends what committees Paddy gets stuck on.

DD: A few more results creeping in, Sir Keith Joseph back in his Leeds seat - there was, of course, some talk of him retiring. Stan Newens holds on in Harlow after a recount we must have missed. Big swing to the Liberals in Maidstone but the Conservatives hold and then the march of the Tory safe seats, Altrincham and Sale, Eastleigh, Surrey NW.

RD: Of course, it won't be boring in the Labour party, I imagine that there will soon be a leadership contest and you will all immerse yourself in that.

RH: There's no vacancy, Robin.

RD: At the moment, I can't imagine that will last more than a few days. After all several defeated MPs and candidates have already blamed "weak leadership"

RH: Well, as we haven't lost many seats, that's only a handful.

RD: But if there was a vacancy, would you stand?

Sir Geoffrey Howe: Of course he would.

RH: Well, some people, have, not without merit suggested that in such an event, that those of us on the social democratic wing of the party should have a candidate and given the various option.s

RD: So you are standing. Sir Geoffrey, are you going to implement the manifesto this time.

GH: Well last time was very special circumstances, quite exceptional. I would have thought with the projected majority as long as we aren't catapulted back a another couple of centuries, then we should be able to.

RD: Some of the privatisations look very challenging and complex

GH: Well, we have a number of industries where our original ideas for privatisation would just produce a series of private monopolies, but allowing parts of them to become units which can compete with each other is good for Britain and good for buyers.

RH: It's still selling off the family silver. Nationalised industries should be capable of being a revenue source and give an example of socialism to states considering modernising.

GH: They are also capable of monopsonic effects, which is dangerous to their suppliers.

RD: Yes, well, <pause> Paddy. Privatisation?

PA: I think the railway suggestions are sensible, but there needs to be a safeguard for British Rail with prices.

DD: More safe Conservative seats, Tonbridge, Fareham, Bristol W and some of the marginals firming up like Luton E and Oxford. Denis Skinner back in Bolsover, Labour hold Crewe and Stockport North moves to a full recount. Peter any more results from seats changing hands?

PS: Not at the moment, not that many have changed hands of course. We can look at the Battlegrounds of course.

DD: Well let us do that.

PS: Here's the list of the Conservative targets. Now it was thought at one point in before the election, that the Conservatives might make substantial inroads into this. Even tonight we thought that maybe 25 seats were in danger, but it hasn't been so, they've taken the first few Bury & Radcliffe, Keighley, Dulwich, we haven't heard from Derby North yet, Swansea West, Stockport North is in recount. But then it gets patchy, no Birmingham Perry Barr, no Middleton and Prestwich, no Harlow, Southampton Itchen etc.

DD: And Labour?

PS: Well, we haven't heard from Preston North, their most marginal, but they have failed in Paddington, Kingswood, Luton West. They have taken seats, but it has been ones with very specific circumstances or in Merseyside where there were very few available.

DD: Well, a bit more news. Birmingham Northfield has come out of recount and been held and the Liberals have managed the old one-two. They have held their by-election gain in Chelmsford after a bundle check and they have taken Jeremy Thorpe's old seat in North Devon and Michael Foot has been re-elected in Ebbw Vale with 70% of the vote.

RD: Geoffrey, a by-election gain held and Thorpe's old seat back, you appear to be losing a bit of ground here?

GH: By-election gains are notoriously tricky to take back on the first attempt, I know we had some hopes, but Chelmsford has had a strong Liberal vote for a very long time. As for North Devon, more a vote against Thorpe last time than a vote for us.

RD: Paddy?

PA: Delighted, we have concentrated a lot on getting back the West Country seats and on getting a couple more as well. Holding Chelmsford is the icing on the cake, they have a good local MP rather than a semi-detached one.

RD: I see skirting controversy isn't going to be your forte.

RH: I can't wait for Foreign Questions. The Viscount will be glowering from the Bar of the House.

AK: It is worth saying that the Liberals are having a decent night, they've got a 1974 voteshare and they are doing well at taking seats - 20 may not be out of reach, maybe even 21 if they can hold their defector.

DD: But they have failed in their traditional target of Hereford, of course, some would say there hasn't been a candidate of quality since 1959.

RD: <grins>

DD: The Conservatives have taken Birmingham Erdington and by a country mile. They succeed in Erdington but fail in Perry Barr next door.

RH: There may be a local factor there, Jeff Rooker has worked very hard in Perry Barr and there were some serious questions asked about the Conservative in the local press.

GH: More like a smear campaign. I'm sure he visited that place by accident.

RH: Everyone in Birmingham knows about the Nightingale.

PA: <looks bemused> I thought the Birmingham newspapers were Conservative.

RH: There are some matters, as many of my Asians will attest, on which the paper is purely reactionary.

DD: Perhaps a couple of results, Peter. But Labour have held Birmingham Stechford, which used to be Roy Jenkins and Leicester East.

PS: Here's a couple of interesting holds and the latest two seats to change hands

IPSWICH
LABOUR HOLD

Electorate: 87,675
Turnout: 83.4%

Weetch Lab 33,275 43.5% (-3.7%)
Cottrell Con 32,502 42.5% (-0.4%)
Keeling Lib 10,717 14.1% (+6.0)

Majority: 773 (1.0%)
Swing: Lab to Con 1.6%

MAIDSTONE
CONSERVATIVE HOLD

Electorate: 97,057
Turnout: 79.9%

Wells Con 31,635 40.2% (-12.4%)
Burnett Lib 29,741 37.8% (14.6%)
Evans Lab 17,221 21.9% (-1.2%)

Majority: 1,894 (2.4%)
Swing: Con to Lib 13.5%

DD: Good Grief. That's a serious case of Southern Discomfort.

DEVON NORTH
LIBERAL GAIN FROM CONSERVATIVE

Electorate: 80,276
Turnout: 84.1%

Blackmore Lib 30,681 45.4% (+8.7%)
Speller Con 28,737 42.6% (-5.6%)
Saltern Lab 4,644 6.9% (-4.3%)
Mockler Eco 1,559 2.3% (+1.2)

Majority 1,944 (2.8%)
Swing: Con to Lib: 7.1%

DD: Of course, Auberon Waugh was Dislocated, which reduced the gaiety of the nation or at least of the North Devon electorate.

BIRMINGHAM ERDINGTON
CONSERVATIVE GAIN FROM LABOUR

Electorate: 65,125
Turnout: 70.9%

Moylan Con 22,332 48.4% (+3.9%)
Corbett Lab 18,810 40.8% (-5.2%)
Duffy Lib 5,018 10.9% (+2.9%)

Majority: 3,522 (7.6%)
Swing: Lab to Con 4.0%

DD: A very good result for the Conservatives. Well, we have more news, Halifax is doing a complete recount, Richmond in Surrey will have a third recount starting at 12 noon and Labour have held Jarrow. Just twenty minutes to go now before we cease transmission for the night. Robin any last thoughts from the panel

RD: I think what of the colonial question, did it play a part in the election. Geoffrey?

GH: I must admit, it was a useful stick to beat Labour with, but in many seats in my area, there was a strong objection to spending money on the colonies rather that getting jobs for people who had been affected by the Dislocation.

DD: I just have to interrupt, the Liberals have taken Chippenham.

RH: It was our fatal error, the Tory press pushed the asinine policies of the left and we were put in a muddle. Many of my constituents like our hands off idea for the sub-continent and many others don't, but that's just how it played on the doorsteps.

PA: I think it won us a few votes and the Tories as well, but a lot of voters have been lost to Labour from this. They may not return. I must say, we are getting a nice little phalanx of seats in the West Country now.

DD: Julian Critchley holds in Aldershot, Margaret Beckett the former MP for Lincoln has held Derby South, Alex Lyon has held York for Labour and Islington Central will be joining Richmond in the third recount tomorrow.

PS: One last result before we go off air

Chippenham
LIBERAL GAIN FROM CONSERVATIVE


Electorate: 78,531
Turnout: 83.83%

Graham Lib 31,165 47.3%(+6.0%)
Needham Con 30,361 46.0% (-3.2%)
Inchley Lab 3,157 4.8% (-3.8%)
Pettit 1,244 2.5% (+1.0%)

Majority: 804 (1.3%)
Swing: Con to Lib 4.6%

DD: The Ulster Unionists have held their by-election gain in Belfast E and the Alliance have maintained second place there. We are very near the end now and the pace of seats coming in has changed.

PS: Well, it is slowing up now, but after that last result in Birmingham, Edgbaston it is Conservatives 222, Labour 209, Liberal 10 and 5 Others.

DD: And we are still predicting a majority for Mrs Thatcher?

AK: Yes, 43, it sometimes goes up and sometimes goes down by a seat, but that is about all. That is an increase on last time, but not as much as I think people had considered possible even at the close of poll.

RD: I suspect there will be some disappointed noises in the morning, especially from some of the closer seats and the first hints of a reshuffle

DD: And on that note, we will come to an end for this evening. We will be back at 9am, so if you want a cat-nap, which is all we are getting, will no doubt hear a few more results, there are a number of seats still counting and recounting and a number of seats which count on Friday.