sdoerr
Conservative
Posts: 149 
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Post by sdoerr on Oct 2, 2014 13:36:14 GMT
Paddy Power now have the Conservative as favourite at 5/6. Other bookies disagree. -- Steve now have Conservatives ahead or at least neck-and-neck. -- Steve |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2014 14:13:04 GMT
I wonder why. Do we really think Reckless will lose... That would really be a short sharp shock for UKIP. It seems unlikely to me and the ukip odds seem great value.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 2, 2014 14:17:11 GMT
I wonder why. Do we really think Reckless will lose... That would really be a short sharp shock for UKIP. It seems unlikely to me and the ukip odds seem great value. My take would be this: If this one were held next week with the others, I'd be fairly certain that the Tories would hold. However, if UKIP can win Clacton and get a decent result in Heywood and Middleton and get some real momentum going, then they could well become favourites here as well. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2014 15:34:20 GMT
So this is a thing  |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2014 15:34:41 GMT
I mean, no imprint! Tut tut!
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 2, 2014 15:45:14 GMT
It isn't even a good imitation of early Soviet propaganda art.
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Post by Devonian on Oct 2, 2014 16:08:23 GMT
I wonder why. Do we really think Reckless will lose... That would really be a short sharp shock for UKIP. It seems unlikely to me and the ukip odds seem great value. My take would be this: If this one were held next week with the others, I'd be fairly certain that the Tories would hold. However, if UKIP can win Clacton and get a decent result in Heywood and Middleton and get some real momentum going, then they could well become favourites here as well. Clearly the defections were planned with this in mind. Carswell defects first as this gives UKIP momentum. Reckless then defects some time later. This is timed to be just before the Clacton by election in order to give a little bit of extra momentum to the Clacton by election but at the same time close enough to it to give UKIP enough time to switch resources to the Rochester election after the Clacton vote. It was also clearly timed to happen (just) after the Commons recall, which means the writ now can't be moved until the Commons come back on October 13th. The fact that most people following it are expecting a Clacton win doesn't mean that UKIP won't get a big psychological boost from actually winning it. The sight of an elected UKIP MP actually speaking in the HoC will certainly give them a boost. |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Oct 2, 2014 16:36:45 GMT
And the likely second places in Heywood and for South Yorkshire PCC are a lucky coincidence.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 2, 2014 16:56:32 GMT
Calling someone a bigot and then stating that every other candidate is scum shows some brass neck.
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Post by Devonian on Oct 2, 2014 17:01:57 GMT
So this is a thing I thought anarchists were against voting? |
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Post by thirdchill on Oct 2, 2014 17:05:34 GMT
Calling someone a bigot and then stating that every other candidate is scum shows some brass neck. I so want to see Class War poll behind the Loonies. I presume the OMRLP will be standing.... |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 2, 2014 17:07:49 GMT
Holly Rae-Smith is intending to stand here for Class War. It's just struck me that Class War might end up with the only double-barrelled candidate. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2014 19:39:14 GMT
Holly Rae-Smith is intending to stand here for Class War. It's just struck me that Class War might end up with the only double-barrelled candidate. Not even remotely surprising. The far left (with the notable exception of the folks on here) are usually posh spoiled brats who choose to behave like a bit of a cock as an alternative to employment or any other useful way of spending time. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 2, 2014 19:44:36 GMT
To be fair, a double-barrelled surname is less indicative of a wealthy background than it was - it's reasonably common where the parents weren't intending to marry, for example.
For those who are wondering, I'm still none the wiser exactly why I have a double-barrelled surname.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426
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Post by iain on Oct 2, 2014 19:53:59 GMT
To be fair, a double-barrelled surname is less indicative of a wealthy background than it was - it's reasonably common where the parents weren't intending to marry, for example. As in my case |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Oct 2, 2014 20:02:55 GMT
To be fair, a double-barrelled surname is less indicative of a wealthy background than it was - it's reasonably common where the parents weren't intending to marry, for example. For those who are wondering, I'm still none the wiser exactly why I have a double-barrelled surname. Did Mr Anglian and Miss Lefty not intend to marry? East is an odd name though. |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Oct 2, 2014 20:23:14 GMT
To be fair, a double-barrelled surname is less indicative of a wealthy background than it was - it's reasonably common where the parents weren't intending to marry, for example. For those who are wondering, I'm still none the wiser exactly why I have a double-barrelled surname. Interesting as part of yours seems almost Scandinavian. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 2, 2014 20:38:34 GMT
We went double-barrelled when we got married, creating something which I'm fairly certain is unique  |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2014 20:43:43 GMT
To be fair, a double-barrelled surname is less indicative of a wealthy background than it was - it's reasonably common where the parents weren't intending to marry, for example. For those who are wondering, I'm still none the wiser exactly why I have a double-barrelled surname. Perhaps your great-grandad came over from Sweden and married an English girl, and they took both surnames. Have you ever considered taking up genealogy EAL? The internet has made it so much easier. And you get to look at all the old censuses in detail. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 2, 2014 21:27:45 GMT
I know my genealogy and where the two parts of my surname came from (the economic migrant in question was my great-great-grandad). I just don't know precisely why my parents decided to put them together when they got married, particularly because one of the elements was not the surname of either of them. I think it's something to do with family politics, but beyond that I've never been bothered to find out.
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