neilm
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Post by neilm on Sept 27, 2014 14:27:02 GMT
Tory hold anyone?
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 27, 2014 14:43:40 GMT
Probably not. The interesting contest will be at the general election. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Sept 27, 2014 14:47:03 GMT
Agreed. A UKIP win here will be hard to carry off. Has Reckless been a good constituency MP?
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 27, 2014 14:58:42 GMT
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Post by thirdchill on Sept 27, 2014 15:11:58 GMT
It would still be a hard push for labour to be elected here, although their job has been made a little easier now. |
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Post by markgoodair on Sept 27, 2014 15:14:54 GMT
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 27, 2014 15:24:10 GMT
It would still be a hard push for labour to be elected here, although their job has been made a little easier now. Surely the other way round? Good news for Reckless. Pimp will know the territory well but I would say this is quite a good demographic for us myself. |
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Post by thirdchill on Sept 27, 2014 15:29:31 GMT
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 27, 2014 15:34:55 GMT
Agreed. A UKIP win here will be hard to carry off. Has Reckless been a good constituency MP? Does it matter? Given the praise Carswell gets for sending a few letters, I think that's often a justification for a decision already made for other reasons. |
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Post by thirdchill on Sept 27, 2014 15:37:45 GMT
It would still be a hard push for labour to be elected here, although their job has been made a little easier now. Surely the other way round? Good news for Reckless. Pimp will know the territory well but I would say this is quite a good demographic for us myself. 28% for labour at the last election for labour is not a small number of votes. UKIP will have to attract labour voters here to win, attracting conservative voters will not be enough, particularly if labour are squeezing the lib dems around here. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 27, 2014 15:50:11 GMT
Surely the other way round? Good news for Reckless. Pimp will know the territory well but I would say this is quite a good demographic for us myself. 28% for labour at the last election for labour is not a small number of votes. UKIP will have to attract labour voters here to win, attracting conservative voters will not be enough, particularly if labour are squeezing the lib dems around here. Back in late 60s early 70s when I was in mutual aid teams this was knife edge marginal. I would say with that candidate there would be a softer Labour vote and more chance of attracting their votes. |
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Post by thirdchill on Sept 27, 2014 16:37:58 GMT
Had UKIP selected a PPC here or not?
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Post by Devonian on Sept 27, 2014 16:58:59 GMT
Had UKIP selected a PPC here or not? Yes apparently someone called Dr Mark Hanson who announced to the conference that he was standing down as PPC and would support Reckless in the by election. |
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Post by johnc on Sept 27, 2014 16:59:09 GMT
Had UKIP selected a PPC here or not? Yes, Mark Hanson. He today announced he would gladly stand aside. |
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Post by Devonian on Sept 27, 2014 17:06:06 GMT
There have been no local elections in Medway since 2011. However there have, of course, been the European elections. UKIP got its 19th best European election percentage in Medway  |
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Post by independentukip on Sept 27, 2014 23:35:33 GMT
Had UKIP selected a PPC here or not? Dr Hanson was given a medal for his trouble and got to sit at the top table. Luckily for Farage not all the medal winners were in attendance otherwise there would have been an embarrassing moment with someone not getting their medal at the end of the session. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 28, 2014 14:18:42 GMT
The parliamentary longevity of Bob Marshall-Andrews would indicate that Reckless hasn't got much of a personal vote. I suspect this will be a narrow UKIP victory which will go Tory again at the general. Although the joker in the pack will be if enough Lib Dems and Labour decide to hold their noses and vote Tory as in Newark.
I also suspect that the local Tory activist base won't be going across with him- in a seat like that, I'd imagine that any likely UKIP sympathisers amongst the activists would have gone to...well, UKIP.
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Post by thirdchill on Sept 28, 2014 14:23:59 GMT
The parliamentary longevity of Bob Marshall-Andrews would indicate that Reckless hasn't got much of a personal vote. I suspect this will be a narrow UKIP victory which will go Tory again at the general. Although the joker in the pack will be if enough Lib Dems and Labour decide to hold their noses and vote Tory as in Newark. I also suspect that the local Tory activist base won't be going across with him- in a seat like that, I'd imagine that any likely UKIP sympathisers amongst the activists would have gone to...well, UKIP. The local party chairman has already denounced Reckless, and it seems the local party are not happy. Unlike with Carswell, he doesn't seem to have a massive personal following. On another post on ukpollingreport, UKIP were odds on favourites to win the by-election here but conservatives were at 3/1 to hold the seat, which seems very long odds. I might even be tempted to lay that bet on with those odds (Wouldn't put a single penny on anyone other than UKIP winning clacton). |
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Post by Ben Walker on Sept 28, 2014 14:44:08 GMT
I'm tempted to think the Tories will hold this.
I have a theory that it depends on how affluent the seat is. I think if you've got a seat that's very middle class, like Newark (I'm assuming, as it was predominantly rural in the affluent sense*), UKIP's chances will be so much slimmer because tactical voting in a CON-UKIP fight will go in CON's favour. Middle class Labourites who'd never be turned on by UKIP would go for CON. As to whether that'll happen in Rochester: it depends on what type of LAB voters there are. Working class Labourites who'd never opt for "Fatchas Tories"? We'll take it. More middle class types turned on by Blair, the Greens and repulsed by us? No. We probably won't.
Shapps was rallying his #Team2015 army a few hours back. They're definitely going to gun for Rochester. They know they have a chance.
And the after effects of a CON hold? UKIP's bubble damaged, but not burst and no more defectors.
*Anecdote here: Some friend at the count told me we were storming ahead in the town but were severely behind in the countryside wards. It's what's formed my theory.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2014 15:08:58 GMT
I think UKIP should win the by-election. The GE may well be very tricky for Reckless. Not really the ideal kent seat for ukip.
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