Rochester and Strood

[Devil Wincarnate]

Sept 28, 2014 14:23:59 GMT thirdchill said:

Sept 28, 2014 14:18:42 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

The parliamentary longevity of Bob Marshall-Andrews would indicate that Reckless hasn't got much of a personal vote.  I suspect this will be a narrow UKIP victory which will go Tory again at the general.  Although the joker in the pack will be if enough Lib Dems and Labour decide to hold their noses and vote Tory as in Newark.

I also suspect that the local Tory activist base won't be going across with him- in a seat like that, I'd imagine that any likely UKIP sympathisers amongst the activists would have gone to...well, UKIP.

The local party chairman has already denounced Reckless, and it seems the local party are not happy. Unlike with Carswell, he doesn't seem to have a massive personal following.

On another post on ukpollingreport, UKIP were odds on favourites to win the by-election here but conservatives were at 3/1 to hold the seat, which seems very long odds. I might even be tempted to lay that bet on with those odds (Wouldn't put a single penny on anyone other than UKIP winning clacton).

That could be the killer thing.  Activists, quite rightly, react very badly to seeing someone they helped into office suddenly abandon that, especially in a place where they have been fighting off UKIP for a while.  And of course, it's not as if Reckless has just discovered that UKIP exist- it reeks of grand-standing and not principle.

[right]

Sept 28, 2014 15:08:58 GMT joe said:

I think UKIP should win the by-election. The GE may well be very tricky for Reckless. Not really the ideal kent seat for ukip.

Also it will be a magnet for Kent and London Kippers who would otherwise be expected to be on the doorsteps for Farage.

[right]

Sept 27, 2014 15:34:55 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Sept 27, 2014 14:47:03 GMT neilm said:

Agreed. A UKIP win here will be hard to carry off. Has Reckless been a good constituency MP?

Does it matter? Given the praise Carswell gets for sending a few letters, I think that's often a justification for a decision already made for other reasons.

If Carswell was a poor constituency MP he wouldn't stand a prayer of keeping Clacton.  It had a popular Labour MP until 2005 and has a reasonably strong Tory machine (with a clutch of councillors).  Either one of those could have got some momentum behind them to get rid of an absentee MP.

Are voters in Jaywick and central Clacton saying that they are voting for "Douglas" or for "UKIP"?  (I honestly don't know - but the posters around the place seem to be very big on Carswell's non-movie star looks rather than on his new affiliation).

[Devonian]

There were two organised protests against Farage and Reckless today, one by some very annoyed Conservative activists, the other by the democracy hating Socialist Workers Party

UKIP's new by-election candidate Mark Reckless, who yesterday rocked the British political establishment with his high profile defection on the last day of UKIP conference, faced small scale protests today from far left extremists during a walkabout of his constituency with UKIP leader Nigel Farage.

Mr Reckless and Mr Farage were joined by UKIP supporters for a day of campaigning in the constituency of Rochester and Strood.

Whilst the former Tory MP was met with cheers and applause on the final day of the conference in Doncaster he met with quite a different reception in the town he, until yesterday, represented in Westminster.

Speaking exclusively to Breitbart London, Mr Farage told how Ukipers had gathered outside Rochester Castle and made their way to a local pub called The Crown.

“There was an organised protest by the Conservative Party,” Mr Farage said, “including Craig Mackinlay who lives in Rochester and who was beaten to the Conservative nomination by Mark Reckless.”

“Part of the extreme left who have been busy on social media after they were notified that I was in Rochester today decided to turn up.”

“Because of that I had to be removed quickly from the situation,” Mr Farage said, adding, “Kent Police were excellent”. He explained that the situation would not be taken any further.

There has been an anti-Farage group set up in South Thanet where the UKIP leader has been selected as the UKIP candidate.

At its core are members of the Socialist Worker Party and other left wing extremists who were involved in violent scenes earlier in the year which resulted in a magistrate finding Andrew Scott guilty of common assault.

Mr Farage and his security team have made it clear that they will continue to hold public events despite the threats of violence.

www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/09/28/Tory-protests-in-Rochester-during-Reckless-Farage-Walkabout

[finsobruce]

Sept 28, 2014 17:55:21 GMT Devonian said:

There were two organised protests against Farage and Reckless today, one by some very annoyed Conservative activists, the other by the democracy hating Socialist Workers Party

God help us all if they join forces...... 

[Sibboleth]

Too many women in the Conservative Party for there to be any chance of that.

[Devonian]

Sept 28, 2014 18:02:47 GMT finsobruce said:

Sept 28, 2014 17:55:21 GMT Devonian said:

There were two organised protests against Farage and Reckless today, one by some very annoyed Conservative activists, the other by the democracy hating Socialist Workers Party

God help us all if they join forces...... 

If the leadership of the two parties did want to work together I have a suggestion for an ice breaker at the initial meeting. They could take along a copy of Burke's Peerage to see how closely related they are to one another.

[Devonian]

Channel Four News report on the by election

[Devil Wincarnate]

Sept 28, 2014 18:40:12 GMT Devonian said:

Sept 28, 2014 18:02:47 GMT finsobruce said:

God help us all if they join forces...... 

If the leadership of the two parties did want to work together I have a suggestion for an ice breaker at the initial meeting. They could take along a copy of Burke's Peerage to see how closely related they are to one another.

There are quite a few Conservative Working Men's Clubs...I bet the number of SWP ones is less than one.

[thirdchill]

Sept 28, 2014 18:02:47 GMT finsobruce said:

Sept 28, 2014 17:55:21 GMT Devonian said:

There were two organised protests against Farage and Reckless today, one by some very annoyed Conservative activists, the other by the democracy hating Socialist Workers Party

God help us all if they join forces...... 

Yes indeed. The votes for UKIP will pile up the more that the Socialist Worker lunatics are involved.

[Pete Whitehead]

Sept 28, 2014 14:18:42 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

The parliamentary longevity of Bob Marshall-Andrews would indicate that Reckless hasn't got much of a personal vote.

This comment doesn't make a lot of sense to me. He was elected in 2010 so it wouldn't be really possible to gauge his personal vote, in contrast to Douglas Carswell, elected in 2005. Non-incumbent candidates are not going to have any kind of personal vote especially the first time they contest a seat (except in very unusual cases such as Dorothy Thornhill in Watford and it remains to be seen how that will work out). Certainly he achieved positive swings in all his contests to date and the 'longevity' of Bob Marshall-Andrews owes more to Tony Blair than it does to Bob Marshall-Andrews let alone Mark Reckless

[thirdchill]

Still don't think Reckless has the personal appeal in his own constituency that Carswell does in his.

Interesting are the attitudes of some conservative figures. was watching The Politics Show (Wales) on BBC Parliament before. They had an interview with Stephen Crabb, the secretary of state for wales. His attitude towards the two MP's was very different. He was disappointed to lose Carswell to UKIP, and said (in slightly different words) of Mark Reckless' defection - 'Good Riddance'.

There's a lot more hostility to this defection than the previous defection amongst conservatives.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Sept 28, 2014 19:53:14 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Sept 28, 2014 14:18:42 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

The parliamentary longevity of Bob Marshall-Andrews would indicate that Reckless hasn't got much of a personal vote.

This comment doesn't make a lot of sense to me. He was elected in 2010 so it wouldn't be really possible to gauge his personal vote, in contrast to Douglas Carswell, elected in 2005. Non-incumbent candidates are not going to have any kind of personal vote especially the first time they contest a seat (except in very unusual cases such as Dorothy Thornhill in Watford and it remains to be seen how that will work out). Certainly he achieved positive swings in all his contests to date and the 'longevity' of Bob Marshall-Andrews owes more to Tony Blair than it does to Bob Marshall-Andrews let alone Mark Reckless

I meant in the sense that he contested it several times without any obvious change in his vote tally.  Even non-incumbents can come into it with some kind of personal vote sometimes, as you point out.  The point I'm trying to make is that he doesn't have the same appeal as Carswell, and clearly doesn't even have much personal appeal amongst the local Tory activists, if Baloo's comment is accurate.

[Ben Walker]

Worth a read. And the important bit:

All in all, Rochester and Strood doesn't strike me as being an ideal fit for a Ukip insurgency. In fact, there is a plausible scenario that involves them finishing third behind Labour and the Conservatives. There is a real possibility that both Ukip and the Tories calibrate the seat incorrectly, judging it to be a race to the bottom on the EU and immigration. If they choose that route, the likely benefactor is Labour, and that should worry them both.

[Pimpernal]

Sept 28, 2014 20:01:46 GMT thirdchill said:

Still don't think Reckless has the personal appeal in his own constituency that Carswell does in his.

Interesting are the attitudes of some conservative figures. was watching The Politics Show (Wales) on BBC Parliament before. They had an interview with Stephen Crabb, the secretary of state for wales. His attitude towards the two MP's was very different. He was disappointed to lose Carswell to UKIP, and said (in slightly different words) of Mark Reckless' defection - 'Good Riddance'.

There's a lot more hostility to this defection than the previous defection amongst conservatives.

I think one big difference is that Carswell caught the Tories out - they weren't expecting it, and didn't have a response approach planned.

This time it was more predictable, and CCHQ probably had a better planned reaction - ie play the traitor card a lot harder etc.

I think this will be close...

[Deleted]

Medway/Rochester and Strood
(Notional figures taken from the BBC's Vote 2010 page)

[Deleted]

Holly Rae-Smith is intending to stand here for Class War.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Sept 28, 2014 17:31:42 GMT right said:

Sept 27, 2014 15:34:55 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Does it matter? Given the praise Carswell gets for sending a few letters, I think that's often a justification for a decision already made for other reasons.

If Carswell was a poor constituency MP he wouldn't stand a prayer of keeping Clacton.  It had a popular Labour MP until 2005 and has a reasonably strong Tory machine (with a clutch of councillors).  Either one of those could have got some momentum behind them to get rid of an absentee MP.

Are voters in Jaywick and central Clacton saying that they are voting for "Douglas" or for "UKIP"?  (I honestly don't know - but the posters around the place seem to be very big on Carswell's non-movie star looks rather than on his new affiliation).

I don't think Carswell is an absentee MP. He's hardly a local boy made good, but his child is educated in the constituency and his office is efficient, so that clears the bar (particularly given the record of previous Tory MPs in the area). I do get the strong sense that he thinks casework is about sending a letter to somebody in the public sector, copying in the constituent and leaving it at that.

I was out in the northern bit of Jaywick (where a lot of people insist they live in West Clacton instead) a few days ago. A few people mentioned Carswell, but UKIP was the much commoner response. The name on the posters may not necessarily be about the electorate wants.

[The Bishop]

Sept 28, 2014 23:08:39 GMT Ben Walker said:

Worth a read. And the important bit:

All in all, Rochester and Strood doesn't strike me as being an ideal fit for a Ukip insurgency. In fact, there is a plausible scenario that involves them finishing third behind Labour and the Conservatives. There is a real possibility that both Ukip and the Tories calibrate the seat incorrectly, judging it to be a race to the bottom on the EU and immigration. If they choose that route, the likely benefactor is Labour, and that should worry them both.

Well, it might be if we could read it

[Pete Whitehead]

Sept 29, 2014 10:46:06 GMT @trident said:

Sept 28, 2014 14:18:42 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

The parliamentary longevity of Bob Marshall-Andrews would indicate that Reckless hasn't got much of a personal vote.  I suspect this will be a narrow UKIP victory which will go Tory again at the general.  Although the joker in the pack will be if enough Lib Dems and Labour decide to hold their noses and vote Tory as in Newark.

I also suspect that the local Tory activist base won't be going across with him- in a seat like that, I'd imagine that any likely UKIP sympathisers amongst the activists would have gone to...well, UKIP.

On the Today programme this morning there were some local Tory activists who were very angry and who said that at their constituency meeting a week or two ago, they had asked Reckless if he was going to defect and he clearly said No.

He was hardly going to say 'well yes I am going to defect actually but I'm planning to reveal it at the UKIP conference in a week or two's time so keep it under your hats until then'