neilm
Non-Aligned
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Post by neilm on Sept 30, 2014 16:50:55 GMT
This is where the fallacy of 'unfunded tax cuts' comes from.
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Sept 30, 2014 20:42:56 GMT
I completely agree with you in regards to creating credible policy. I believe UKIP have a few very good policies such as increasing the tax threshold and lowering the upper band to 35p upto 55k. I feel if UKIP can maintain momentum up until 2015 I see no reason why 10+ MPs could be elected. Two years ago many on here said UKIP getting 1 MP Would be a miracle. Those are not credible policies when they're also claiming they'll protect NHS spending. You can either have tax cuts or you can protect services. Both is not an option. I remember watching Ed Miliband complaining about SNP "lies about the NHS" and how they frightened older voters. At last I thought, they see on the sharp end how irresponsible this is. That same evening a posting on my Facebook feed showed a Clacton Labour leaflet with Nigel Farage drinking from a Maggie mug and claiming that UKIP wanted to privatise the NHS. Which does have the problem that it's not true. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 30, 2014 20:48:45 GMT
If Farage wants people to stop misrepresenting his beliefs, I recommend he stops changing them every 10 minutes.
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Sept 30, 2014 22:32:49 GMT
If Farage wants people to stop misrepresenting his beliefs, I recommend he stops changing them every 10 minutes. The new politics. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 1, 2014 8:21:43 GMT
In many ways, he's actually the best exemplar in politics today of all the things that annoy UKIP voters.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 1, 2014 8:27:07 GMT
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 1, 2014 8:40:25 GMT
NOt saying its going to happen or even likely, but I wonder if a Labour victory would be all that bad news for the Tories in the long term. It might be bad news for UKIP both in terms deterring defectors and pushing some right wing voters who really don't want Labour back in back to the Tories.
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Richard Allen
Banned
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 1, 2014 14:11:41 GMT
NOt saying its going to happen or even likely, but I wonder if a Labour victory would be all that bad news for the Tories in the long term. It might be bad news for UKIP both in terms deterring defectors and pushing some right wing voters who really don't want Labour back in back to the Tories. A Labour win would be much better news for the Tories than a UKIP win and it might even be better than a Tory win. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 1, 2014 14:35:38 GMT
Not quite following your logic in the latter part, tbh.
Labour winning here - even if basically through an even split in the Tory/UKIP vote - would be a huge fillip for them and boost the narrative that Cameron is destined for defeat next year. As for UKIP, they can probably try and shrug any reverse off if they do well next week.
Its the Tories who really need a win in this one badly IMO. If they don't get it.....
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 1, 2014 14:48:30 GMT
Not quite following your logic in the latter part, tbh. Labour winning here - even if basically through an even split in the Tory/UKIP vote - would be a huge fillip for them and boost the narrative that Cameron is destined for defeat next year. As for UKIP, they can probably try and shrug any reverse off if they do well next week. Its the Tories who really need a win in this one badly IMO. If they don't get it..... If Labour win it will play into the Tory narrative that a vote for UKIP is a vote for Labour, but yes I am sure the Tories will be desperate to hold the seat. |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 1, 2014 15:28:42 GMT
NOt saying its going to happen or even likely, but I wonder if a Labour victory would be all that bad news for the Tories in the long term. It might be bad news for UKIP both in terms deterring defectors and pushing some right wing voters who really don't want Labour back in back to the Tories. In the 1962 south dorset by election Sir Piers Debenham stood as an anti common market candidate, split the Tory vote and let Labour's Guy Barnett in. Barnett lost at the 1964 election but several other anti common market candidates stood at the general election. I'm pretty certain that the split vote helped Labour win Carlisle - I will check to see if it was significant elsewhere. Different times of course but interesting... |
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Post by Philip Davies on Oct 1, 2014 18:45:49 GMT
It is interesting to look at how Rochester & Strood and before it Medway's general election result has compare to the national one. | Election | UK % margin | Rochester & Strood / Medway % margin | Difference % | | 2010 | Con 7.2 | Con 20.7 | Con 13.5 | | 2005 | Lab 2.8 | Lab 0.5 | Con 2.3 | | 2001 | Lab 9.0 | Lab 9.8 | Lab 0.8 | | 1997 | Lab 12.6 | Lab 12.0 | Con 0.6 | | 1992 | Con 7.5 | Con 17.7 | Con 10.2 | | 1987 | Con 11.3 | Con 21.2 | Con 9.8 | | 1983 | Con 14.9 | Con 18.8
| Con 4.0 |
Though the seat has been won by whoever has won overall, it has been noticeably more Conservative when the Tories have won nationally. When Labour won in 1997 and 2001 the seat's margin nearly matched that of the country. The 2005 result hinted that if the two main parties were level nationally then R&S would be won by the Conservatives. |
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 1, 2014 18:53:16 GMT
Under the current boundaries its Tory in an even year....
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 1, 2014 20:43:08 GMT
Under the current boundaries its Tory in an even year.... Ha! Sounds like the old one about Spurs winning the Cup if the year ends in a 1. |
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Post by Philip Davies on Oct 1, 2014 20:48:36 GMT
Under the current boundaries its Tory in an even year.... Ha! Sounds like the old one about Spurs winning the Cup if the year ends in a 1. That was only true when the year also began with one. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 1, 2014 20:52:12 GMT
Ha! Sounds like the old one about Spurs winning the Cup if the year ends in a 1. That was only true when the year also began with one. Wembley beckons in a few millennia then. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 1, 2014 22:39:45 GMT
Tory hold.
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Pimpernal
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Post by Pimpernal on Oct 2, 2014 5:47:46 GMT
Not quite following your logic in the latter part, tbh. Labour winning here - even if basically through an even split in the Tory/UKIP vote - would be a huge fillip for them and boost the narrative that Cameron is destined for defeat next year. As for UKIP, they can probably try and shrug any reverse off if they do well next week. Its the Tories who really need a win in this one badly IMO. If they don't get it..... If Labour win it will play into the Tory narrative that a vote for UKIP is a vote for Labour, but yes I am sure the Tories will be desperate to hold the seat. Not if the Tories come third - as it will mean "Vote Tory get Labour" will be more potent in some seats... If they've decided they're going to make a fight of this, the Tories really need a clear win. And for UKIP to come third... |
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sdoerr
Conservative
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Post by sdoerr on Oct 2, 2014 7:32:11 GMT
Paddy Power now have the Conservative as favourite at 5/6. Other bookies disagree. -- Steve
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Oct 2, 2014 10:01:00 GMT
If Labour win it will play into the Tory narrative that a vote for UKIP is a vote for Labour, but yes I am sure the Tories will be desperate to hold the seat. Not if the Tories come third - as it will mean "Vote Tory get Labour" will be more potent in some seats... If they've decided they're going to make a fight of this, the Tories really need a clear win. And for UKIP to come third... No, they just need to get over UKIP. Winning would only enhance things for them. UKIP being third would be a disaster for UKIP, through. |
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