maxque
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Post by maxque on Nov 21, 2014 3:40:19 GMT
Do the Medway Electoral Services always take so long?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 21, 2014 4:09:54 GMT
Five minute warning
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 21, 2014 4:16:10 GMT
UKIP majority 2,920
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 21, 2014 4:18:25 GMT
UKIP 16,867
Con 13,947
Lab 6,713
Green 1,692
LD 349
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 21, 2014 4:18:28 GMT
UKIP 42.1
C 34.8
Lab 16.8
GP 4.2
L Dem 0.9
MRLP 0.4
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Post by johnloony on Nov 21, 2014 4:25:46 GMT
The timing of this makes me think of what it would be like to have a mini-general election, of all the parliamentary by-elections within a parliament, all on the same day. The results would be dribbling in gradually, one by one, and people wouldn't be moaning about waiting until 4am.
A variation on the theme would be to combine the by-elections in small groups, and do them by STV instead of FPTP. The grouping could be done on the basis of geography, or chronologically.
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Post by johnloony on Nov 21, 2014 4:37:51 GMT
The Bromley & Chislehurst by-election in 2006 was held while the World Cup was happening. There were lots of England flags on display all over the place. The English Democrat candidate (Steve Uncles) told me that it showed a lot of support for his party. I didn't know if he was being serious...
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 21, 2014 4:40:46 GMT
That is not as good as the hype and expectation suggested. Ashcroft may be correct about it being won back in May. Reckless must work very hard from now on to hold it. If the Cons keep Kelly he will be greatly aided.
The Conservatives ought to be able to do better than this despite the fevered circumstances. They chose a duff candidate and fought an unfocussed weak campaign albeit with lots of resources. A strong convincing campaign fought on record and economics putover by a very good mature candidate would have had this right on the edge and even saved. Very, very poor effort.
Labour pretend that this is a very different seat to the one that they held to 2010. It is weaker for them but not that much weaker. Getting just 16.8 is evidence of squeeze with some staying home and some possibly voting Conservative. For an official opposition within 6-months of the GE it is a disaster vote. A well led confident Labour should have squeezed the Conservatives not been squeezed. It should have been a contender and tried at least for second place.
Greens made progress despite main event squeeze and others were nowhere as expected and signifying very little.
We can now see that UKIP are going to do damage unless there is a massive fall off in support before May. There will be some but not enough to save the Cameroon Project.
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 21, 2014 4:44:51 GMT
Con -14%
Lab -12%
LD -15%
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 21, 2014 5:36:05 GMT
Congratulations to the winning candidate. Personally I'm very disappointed that my prediction was not accurate for this by-election. I'll have to consider why the Tories did better than I was expecting.
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
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Post by Pimpernal on Nov 21, 2014 5:55:54 GMT
I really don't know why some people thought this would be a bigger win than it is. This result is on the wider edge of expectations.
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Post by AdminSTB on Nov 21, 2014 6:12:13 GMT
I seem to have the 6th closest prediction on the Election Game website with 2,412 so I'm fairly happy with that prediction...
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Post by keithn on Nov 21, 2014 6:37:01 GMT
We expected to lose our deposit, but, considering the amount of work the local parties put in, 349 votes, less than 1% is a shockingly poor performance. We get more votes in many council ward elections.
Head Office always tell us 'where we work, we win.' Clearly not in this case.
Shame for Geoff Juby who is a very experienced and able councillor and worked very hard.
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Post by AdminSTB on Nov 21, 2014 6:40:00 GMT
We expected to lose our deposit, but, considering the amount of work the local parties put in, 349 votes, less than 1% is a shockingly poor performance. We get more votes in many council ward elections. Head Office always tell us 'where we work, we win.' Clearly not in this case. Shame for Geoff Juby who is a very experienced and able councillor and worked very hard. At least you beat the Loonies, though it was a bit close for comfort there... |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2014 6:53:14 GMT
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Post by keithn on Nov 21, 2014 6:55:02 GMT
Many of our previous supporters told us they would be voting UKIP this time as a protest but would come back at the general election. We'll see.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2014 7:35:20 GMT
Better than I had hoped for a couple of weeks. Reckless will be really sweating between now and the general. Its very clear that he has a lot of work to do.
With ukip presumably putting a lot of resources into dear leader getting in as well as other good targets in the area and without a cllr activist base he is going to find life very tricky.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2014 7:42:03 GMT
I am happy with the Green showing: we came very close to holding our deposit in a by-election where no one would have been paying us any attention at all, and there would have been a tremendous impetus for green-leaning voters to vote Labour or even Tory to stop UKIP.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2014 8:03:20 GMT
I think the Tories will regain this at the GE and that the relative narrowness of the result will prevent any more defections. Ukip would probably not want Peter Bone as he will cope even worse than Reckless with the rigours of a by election and Wellingborough is not favourable enough territory.
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Post by thirdchill on Nov 21, 2014 8:22:51 GMT
I think the Tories will regain this at the GE and that the relative narrowness of the result will prevent any more defections. Ukip would probably not want Peter Bone as he will cope even worse than Reckless with the rigours of a by election and Wellingborough is not favourable enough territory. I'd agree that the narrowness of the result will certainly prevent floodgates of defections (though one or two may not be out of the question). The result for UKIP is very good, and only does not appear as good because of the overhype about UKIP's chances and the scale of their possible win and possibly some people looking a bit too closely at Clacton. The narrowness of the result might be good for the conservatives too, should focus minds, hopefully we can now fight a fully positive campaign next time around. The positive messages sent out were good but the attacks on Reckless were not, and should serve as a warning not to try this again. Labour should be disappointed with this, they lost a significant share of their vote despite having a very good candidate. This candidate deserves to be elected to parliament, although it won't happen in this seat. The Greens also got a good result, and would have only been bettered if they had saved their deposit. Lib Dems - well, the result was as expected. Quite a number of candidates came behind the OMRLP. |
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