Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2014 8:24:41 GMT
Ladbrokes have the Conservatives (4/6) favourite to win next May. United Kingdom Independence Party 5/4.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Nov 21, 2014 8:33:34 GMT
Someone even managed to finish behind the PSP.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Nov 21, 2014 8:48:56 GMT
And it wasn't the Lib Dems!
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Nov 21, 2014 9:13:35 GMT
Someone even managed to finish behind the PSP. Proof of an inexorable rise! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2014 9:22:07 GMT
Putting on my neutral cap a not too bad result for the Tories, irrelevant result for Labour, bad for LibDems.
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 21, 2014 11:35:39 GMT
We expected to lose our deposit, but, considering the amount of work the local parties put in, 349 votes, less than 1% is a shockingly poor performance. We get more votes in many council ward elections. Head Office always tell us 'where we work, we win.' Clearly not in this case. Shame for Geoff Juby who is a very experienced and able councillor and worked very hard. Don't beat yourself up over this. You were never part of the script and you had had a decent local candidate who said very sensible and reasonable things. People will feel sorry for him and those in his target audience even a bit guilty already. Your recovery there has already started in hearts and minds. Labour are the one's who must be truly worried and kicking themselves for not working this harder. This modern tendency to manage expectation and massage image stops the all-out effort 'in case it is seen to fail to work'! Those concerns only play here in our sorts of head. The public just see a party 'not trying'. That is concerning, not least because it is important to us that Labour vote for their own good candidate not a weak Conservative in a mad decision to block UKIP. In a perfect scenario UKIP might get 25-seats and attempting to pare that back to 24 in not the Labour imperative in any sensible strategy.........the more we win off the Conservatives the better........up to a minor point........as it all aids a Miliband victory. |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 21, 2014 11:58:29 GMT
I think the Tories will regain this at the GE and that the relative narrowness of the result will prevent any more defections. Ukip would probably not want Peter Bone as he will cope even worse than Reckless with the rigours of a by election and Wellingborough is not favourable enough territory. That was my first reaction last night too. But now I have slept on it I am reasonably sure he will hold it despite losing some votes back to other parties because it is a GE rather than a 'protest opportunity'. There will be more won over by the very fact of having had this campaign and it will add a useful drift from Labour after Thornberry and more from 'Don't Usually Vote'. If there were say 2000-Labour anti UKIP votes, then those returning will bulk up Labour and widen the UKIP margin. Then there is the incumbency effect and that subtle wish of some to be on the winning side; plus UKIP are now in evidence as being able to win, not just be effective second placers. Lastly there is the actuality of the candidates and that puts UKIP at a distinct advantage in not having a Kelly Tolhurst! If the Conservatives change her for a better candidate (amazingly easy project) we can lay into them ditching a local girl as sacrifice to their incompetence in the by-election. Then we can pick at all the scabs over why they did it. If they don't change her I think it is worth about 2500 for us.........just like Maidstone where they have another complete plonker. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 21, 2014 12:05:46 GMT
Being beaten by a hooker has been known to cause by-elections, but congratulations to the Patriotic Socialist Party or whatever they're called this week, for proving that beaten by a hooker can also be the result of a by-election.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2014 12:10:55 GMT
bad result for everyone. UKIP will not hold this in May. Conservatives will feel the effect of this defeat in May. Labour, front page, shrill posh strident rich contemptuous of the working class. well done, you had the worst night. Greens, if that's a good result, you get none come May. Lib Dems, can you afford to lose 200 deposits? You're kidding, boogs (on the Greens). If we did as well as this at the GE, we'd save more deposits than we'd lose in the South East - in 2010 we only saved 3 out of 84, I think. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,931
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 21, 2014 12:11:56 GMT
Better than I had hoped for a couple of weeks. Reckless will be really sweating between now and the general. Its very clear that he has a lot of work to do. With ukip presumably putting a lot of resources into dear leader getting in as well as other good targets in the area and without a cllr activist base he is going to find life very tricky. You also won't be able to chuck all the resources at the seat come the GE that you did this time, though. And I do wonder if UKIP will look into the rather dodgy election expenses avoiding scam that you pulled with your fake "primary"? (after all they still won, so can't be accused of sour grapes in doing so  ) |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 21, 2014 12:23:45 GMT
Better than I had hoped for a couple of weeks. Reckless will be really sweating between now and the general. Its very clear that he has a lot of work to do. With ukip presumably putting a lot of resources into dear leader getting in as well as other good targets in the area and without a cllr activist base he is going to find life very tricky. You also won't be able to chuck all the resources at the seat come the GE that you did this time, though. And I do wonder if UKIP will look into the rather dodgy election expenses avoiding scam that you pulled with your fake "primary"? (after all they still won, so can't be accused of sour grapes in doing so ) I strongly hope that the furore around all of this is another nail in the coffin of primaries. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,931
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 21, 2014 12:36:50 GMT
I think the Tories will regain this at the GE and that the relative narrowness of the result will prevent any more defections. Ukip would probably not want Peter Bone as he will cope even worse than Reckless with the rigours of a by election and Wellingborough is not favourable enough territory. To be more strictly accurate, it lessens the likelihood of more defections until a by-election is no longer feasible...... New year, then? |
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Post by justin124 on Nov 21, 2014 13:04:08 GMT
Labour should certainly have worked this . Had they done so I am sure they would have managed 25% plus.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,931
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 21, 2014 13:27:23 GMT
I completely agree - blame the "minimalist" faction in the party for the decision not to.
There was a bit of a u-turn when it became obvious what a brilliant candidate we had - but by then the "its Tory v UKIP" narrative was already firmly established.
And btw any Labour people who voted tactically for the Tories here need a slap - it was just about understandable in Newark, but now??
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Nov 21, 2014 13:39:24 GMT
And btw any Labour people who voted tactically for the Tories here need a slap - it was just about understandable in Newark, but now?? It came closer to working here, though. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,931
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 21, 2014 13:44:26 GMT
It worked pretty well in Newark, I would have thought  |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Nov 21, 2014 13:48:14 GMT
Newark was always a nailed on Tory win whereas here was less likely, so more incentive for UKIP dis-liking Labour voters to vote Conservative.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Nov 21, 2014 13:48:31 GMT
Sworn in already. That was quick.
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Post by mrhell on Nov 21, 2014 14:13:14 GMT
A rough result for us helped by agent Emily turning Labour into the story |
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Post by Ben Walker on Nov 21, 2014 14:19:48 GMT
I hope Naushabah Khan goes on to do better things for her party; class act. If I had to vote based on the candidate itself and not policy I'd definitely plump for her.
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