Heywood and Middleton

[Devil Wincarnate]

Oct 9, 2014 23:30:22 GMT timmullen1 said:

Oct 9, 2014 23:12:18 GMT right said:

Yes, but there was a (albeit remote) chance that Labour could lose.  This close to the election they should be well motivated.

I disagree; there was never a feeling on the ground that Labour could lose, even UKIP's campaign was slightly half-hearted compared to Clacton and what I imagine we'll see in Rochester and Strood, and the proximity to a General Election doesn't register with average voters; generally they care nothing about sending messages to satisfy the appetites of the political elite, only about electing a government which (obviously) they can only do at a General Election.

One other aside which may be relevant, a Labour organiser who has been up to Heywood told me that Jim Dobbin bequeathed a non-existant campaign infrastructure, with very low voter ID, and so this campaign basically had to start from scratch whilst losing key paid workers to Scotland.

This looks like being the most important post here tonight.  And it fits well with Clacton too.

In both cases, if what Tim says is accurate, the same phenomenon has allowed UKIP to advance: loss of control over voter ID and information on the ground.  In Clacton, this is from the slightly unusual position of having your most senior activist walk off to another party, and in H&M it looks like a complacent local party (you have to wonder what the local councillors have been doing).

I suspect that, with this in mind, UKIP will pose a threat in Tory and Labour seats alike where the local party is jaded, or unchallenged, or has let incumbency become complacency.

[Pimpernal]

Post removed for violating forum rules.

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 10, 2014 6:47:58 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

The joker in the pack- what will happen if we see a seat with a strong Green presence and a strong UKIP presence? Does anyone know of one?

Worthing West?

[mboy]

I haven't been following this seat because I didn't think it was in danger. However, having seen the terrible speech by the Labour winner, I can see why they almost lost this. Another robo-clone who could be a professional Guardian commenter.

[lbarnes]

Oct 10, 2014 7:45:38 GMT mboy said:

I haven't been following this seat because I didn't think it was in danger. However, having seen the terrible speech by the Labour winner, I can see why they almost lost this. Another robo-clone who could be a professional Guardian commenter.

That was her when she's scripted, unbelievably she is even worse when speaking off the cuff.

[froome]

Oct 10, 2014 6:47:58 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

The joker in the pack- what will happen if we see a seat with a strong Green presence and a strong UKIP presence? Does anyone know of one?

There won't be many. The nearest where Greens have a potentially strong presence that UKIP may well do well in are Solihull and Lancaster & Fleetwood, both of which have areas where we are strong and areas which ought to have good potential for a good UKIP vote. Stroud is another possibility, but I can't see UKIP making much of an inroad there.

[andrea]

Oct 9, 2014 23:30:22 GMT timmullen1 said:

One other aside which may be relevant, a Labour organiser who has been up to Heywood told me that Jim Dobbin bequeathed a non-existant campaign infrastructure, with very low voter ID, and so this campaign basically had to start from scratch whilst losing key paid workers to Scotland.

I guess Heywood and Middleton CLP share this feature with some other CLPs in safe areas.

[Tony Otim]

In it's own way, this was probably a better result for UKIP than Clacton, but at least we're spared John Bickley MP, for now at least.

I think we've just moved into the territory where it's highly probable UKIP will have MPs (plural) after the next election. They're probably favourites for Rochester and Strood now as well.

[Deleted]

How will these guys act in Parliament. Also to my half blind specsaver eyes have the Lib voters moved to UKIP?

[La Fontaine]

Not for the first time, a winning candidate read out a speech written for a result which hadn't happened.

In May, Labour candidates were still saying, even after polls had closed, that UKIP wasn't taking Labour votes and they hadn't detected any such problem on the doorsteps. In fact, the more Labour a ward in, say, Newcastle, the better UKIP did.

Labour will now have to treat this H&M as marginal, just in case a further Tory squeeze gives UKIP a realistic chance. There may be other such seats in the north - unlikely but possible.

[Tony Otim]

Oct 10, 2014 8:37:01 GMT @jimboo said:

How will these guys act in Parliament. Also to my half blind specsaver eyes have the Lib voters moved to UKIP?

Undoubtedly a significant amount of the none of the above/anti-politics vote has. In amongst the churn, I'd guess there's also a significant LD to Lab and Lab to UKIP movement going on.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

If you were watching the declaration you'll have seen the enormous whoop which went up from the Lib Dems there when they realised they had succeeded in saving their deposit.

[Deleted]

Oct 10, 2014 7:50:12 GMT lbarnes said:

Oct 10, 2014 7:45:38 GMT mboy said:

I haven't been following this seat because I didn't think it was in danger. However, having seen the terrible speech by the Labour winner, I can see why they almost lost this. Another robo-clone who could be a professional Guardian commenter.

That was her when she's scripted, unbelievably she is even worse when speaking off the cuff.

Her live BBC interview was car-crash. Utterly bamboozled by simple questions, she struggled to remember the auto-replies she had been fed. Woeful to rely on "We weren't expecting on such a Conservative collapse" when your own majority has been crumbled from 6,000 to 600.

[timmullen1]

Oct 10, 2014 6:31:35 GMT bungle said:

Oct 9, 2014 23:30:22 GMT timmullen1 said:

One other aside which may be relevant, a Labour organiser who has been up to Heywood told me that Jim Dobbin bequeathed a non-existant campaign infrastructure, with very low voter ID, and so this campaign basically had to start from scratch whilst losing key paid workers to Scotland.

This I can well believe. Moribund or complacent local parties that have forgotten how to campaign are much easier prey to an insurgent alternative. It is nothing new...Liverpool Edge Hill 1979 et al. When a party has been recently fired up and has a good campaign infrastructure it can make a difference - Hartlepool 2004 springs to mind.

Agreed it rarely happens when a party is in opposition but I believe this trend will only increase over time.

Prior to 2010 my MP went to work on the campaigns in both the Glasgow East (lost to the SNO) and Glenrothes (held by Labour) by-elections and highlighted the complete difference between the two. Glasgow had no campaign infrastructure, no desire to campaign and had made no effort to bring the merged constituency parties together, whereas Glenrothes had high voter ID, year round voter contact (not just ID but public meetings and the like) and leaflets ready to be delivered within 24 hours of the start of the campaign.

There are too many Glasgow East's (indeed my own probably falls into that category) and not enough Glenrothes for my comfort.

I'm not sure the Councllors necessarily play a useful role; again using Stoke as an example, the three Parliamentary seats are by no means in jeopardy for Labour, but the Labour run Council is about as popular as Manchester United in Liverpool and a canvass by them would produce completely different results than a canvass by and for the MPs. I imagine H&M may well be similar where the Labour Party at national level far outruns the popularity of the Party at local level.

[mboy]

Oct 10, 2014 9:23:32 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

If you were watching the declaration you'll have seen the enormous whoop which went up from the Lib Dems there when they realised they had succeeded in saving their deposit.

Damned right!

[The Bishop]

Oct 10, 2014 6:31:35 GMT bungle said:

Oct 9, 2014 23:30:22 GMT timmullen1 said:

One other aside which may be relevant, a Labour organiser who has been up to Heywood told me that Jim Dobbin bequeathed a non-existant campaign infrastructure, with very low voter ID, and so this campaign basically had to start from scratch whilst losing key paid workers to Scotland.

This I can well believe. Moribund or complacent local parties that have forgotten how to campaign are much easier prey to an insurgent alternative. It is nothing new...Liverpool Edge Hill 1979 et al. When a party has been recently fired up and has a good campaign infrastructure it can make a difference - Hartlepool 2004 springs to mind.

Agreed it rarely happens when a party is in opposition but I believe this trend will only increase over time.

Not that long ago, tbh - Bromley/Chislehurst 2006, anyone?

(which led to the Tories learning some lessons and doing much better in by-elections later in that parliament, tbf)

[Deleted]

I noticed that many who voted YES had more to lose from a YES vote than could gain, just wondering how many UKIP working class supporters would actually lose out terrible if UKIP become really successful. Well away to digest the news that David Cameron is now more popular in Scotland than Ed Milliband.

[LDCaerdydd]

Diagram doing the rounds on Twitter, usual caveats etc.

[cefin]

Oct 9, 2014 23:59:58 GMT right said:

Oct 9, 2014 23:56:46 GMT andrea said:

UKIP asking for recount.


Recount granted

Nuttal saying 620 votes in it.

There's no way that can be overturned on recount, but still it's a fantastic result for UKIP.

Just out of interest.

At the count in the very first election that I stood in (Welsh Assembly 2007, saved my deposit thankfully with 2.300 votes)  the initial result was a Labour win from Conservative by 400 votes.

The Conservatives asked for and were granted a recount.  As it was my first ever visit to a count and I was on my own with no campaign team or anyone else with experience to advise I asked one of the Conservatives ...why a recount?... as I was up until that point under the impression that there were only recounts in the event of a 40 or 50 or so vote differential.

I was told that although it was unlikely that a 400 vote count would be overturned that it was quite permissible to ask for a recount in those circumstances.

This is what went on to occur until 11 O'clock the next morning and one change of exhausted counting staff.

Result of recount ..........  Conservatives won by 200

Result of 2nd recount......Labour won by 32

Result of 3rd recount.......Labour won by 83

Result of 4th recount.......Labour won  by 83      

Conservatives thankfully give in we all go home

So whilst confidence in the counting system took a bit of a knock that evening for me, there was initially a 600 vote turn around in the result.

A dramatic introduction to counts and electioneering for myself. Highlight of the night was watching Labour's Jane Hutt having to be led away by her team blubbing like a baby after finding out that she'd lost the first recount.

Suffice to say that she was back beaming like a Cheshire cat after the fourth recount giving it the old " This is a clear endorsement of Labour's record in the Welsh assembly"  bit in her acceptance speech.

The Conservatives still blame myself and UKIP for losing them the seat.

And I went home chuckling at their outrage that I had had the audacity to stand and collect my 2,300 votes which they viewed as their own and I haven't stopped since.

[Sibboleth]

Oct 10, 2014 8:37:01 GMT @jimboo said:

How will these guys act in Parliament. Also to my half blind specsaver eyes have the Lib voters moved to UKIP?

William of Ockham would suggest so.