BY ELECTION POLLS

[Deleted]

Didn't know if we wanted a separate section by election polls.

Here is some of the breakdown of YOUGOVS clacton poll includes link for data tables

link

If you lived in Clacton and could vote in the by election, How would you vote? (whole of UK asked) LAB 25% CON 21% UKIP 20% LD 5%

[The Bishop]

Very strange poll, that

[Deleted]

link

Most #Clacton voters (56%) said @douglascarswell “seems more principled than most politicians” 64% said he “has been a good MP for Clacton”

#Clacton #UKIP 56% #CONSERVATIVES 24% #LABOUR 16% #LIBDEMS 2% OTHERS 2%

#Clacton How will you vote at the #GE2015 #UKIP 39% #CONSERVATIVES 22% #LABOUR 15% #GREENS 2% #LIBDEMS 2% DK/WV 20%

#Clacton Aged 18-24 voting intentions #Labour 41% #UKIP 32% #Conservatives 26%

[Tony Otim]

It's a slightly odd way of reporting the results of that poll - they exclude DK/WV for the by-election, but not for the GE, meaning the two sets of figures are not really comparable.

[greenchristian]

For anybody who can't be bothered to work it out, here's a quick calculation of the direct comparison between the by-election and general election figures (taken from the headline figures, rather than the detailed results):

Party	By Election	General Election
UKIP	56	49
Conservative	24	27.5
Labour	16	18.5
Liberal Democrat	2	2.5
Others  / Green	2	2.5

Suggesting that UKIP had monopolised the mid-term protest vote crowd.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

The Sun are doing a poll in Heywood and Middleton. Likely to be the only one of the campaign. Published this evening.

[Devonian]

Oct 2, 2014 13:12:55 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

The Sun are doing a poll in Heywood and Middleton. Likely to be the only one of the campaign. Published this evening.

The poll is by Survation and is due out at 10pm

[Davıd Boothroyd]

The headlines of the Survation Heywood poll are:

Lab 50
UKIP 31
C 13
L Dem 4

[Devonian]

Details of the Survation poll here

survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Heywood-Middleton-Tables.pdf

Labour 49.7%
UKIP 30.7%
Con 12.9%
LibDem 3.7%
Green 3.0%

By ward group

Heywood & Hopwood

Lab 43.4%
UKIP 36.4%
Con 13.3%

Middleton

Lab 63.1%
UKIP 25.9%
Con 6.7%

Rural North/East

Lab 35.5%
UKIP 30.6%
Con 22.8%

[Deleted]

link to more breakdown of the poll

There seems to be something for everyone

Greens are 3rd in the 18-35 section with 11.1%
Labour are on 50% in the over 55s which is usually where UKIP do best
UKIP have only a 7% gap in male voting intentions
and 60% of Labour voters say the main reason they vote labour is because they always have

[East Anglian Lefty]

Interesting to note that at Labour conference UKIP were claiming their best response was coming from Middleton.

[Pete Whitehead]

It seems to make more sense that UKIP would do better in Heywood than in Middleton - not sure why - maybe just because its further from Manchester there a bit less 'Metropolitan'.
The Labour share in the 'Rural N/E' section is actually quite impressive considering 2/3rds of that is the very Middle class wards of Norden and Bamford where they are weak in local elections.. maybe over analysing of course

[Pete Whitehead]

61% of Labour voters voting Labour because they always have done - 15% because they like their policies. Lol

[East Anglian Lefty]

Oct 3, 2014 10:54:32 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

It seems to make more sense that UKIP would do better in Heywood than in Middleton - not sure why - maybe just because its further from Manchester there a bit less 'Metropolitan'.
The Labour share in the 'Rural N/E' section is actually quite impressive considering 2/3rds of that is the very Middle class wards of Norden and Bamford where they are weak in local elections.. maybe over analysing of course

There didn't seem to be much of a difference in UKIP support between the two towns in the locals this year and both are far enough from the city centre that metropolitanness in that sense probably isn't meaningful. Though as you say, the sample size is small enough that there's not analysis you can usefully do - in terms of distribution of support, only the big Labour advantage in Middleton looks likely to be meaningful and even that might be a statistical artefact.

[The Bishop]

Oct 3, 2014 10:56:28 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

61% of Labour voters voting Labour because they always have done - 15% because they like their policies. Lol

How does that compare with the Tories and LibDems, then?

(obviously UKIP is in a *slightly* different position )

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 3, 2014 11:54:31 GMT The Bishop said:

Oct 3, 2014 10:56:28 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

61% of Labour voters voting Labour because they always have done - 15% because they like their policies. Lol

How does that compare with the Tories and LibDems, then?

(obviously UKIP is in a *slightly* different position )

General Election @ukelections2015
Follow
Heywood & Middleton Poll

What is your main reason to vote for (that party)?

Answer

Always voted for them

LABOUR 61.2%
CON 32.4%
LD 25.4%
7:03 AM - 3 Oct 2014

[The Bishop]

That is rather surprising given that you would think both Tories and Libs are down to their "core" support?

[East Anglian Lefty]

I think you have to consider what people mean by these answers. The qualitative trumps the quantitative here.

[Tony Otim]

It really needs a follow up question on why have you always voted for them?

[neilm]

If 61% of Labour voters vote Labour because they always have, and 15 because they like the policies, what about the other 24%?