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Post by AdminSTB on Nov 11, 2014 18:43:20 GMT
Another Rochester and Strood poll from Lord Ashcroft: UKIP - 44% CON - 32% LAB - 17% LDEM - 2% Green 5% It's 5% for all others, not just Green. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2014 19:25:05 GMT
It's 5% for all others, not just Green. No, I think it is likely to be 5 for Greens. The full tables show the Greens on 4% before adjustments for don't know/refusers, and the LibDems on 1%. In numbers, the LibDems had 7, Greens 23, and others had 3. So, depending on their adjustment for DK/R, Greens will be either 4% or 5%. |
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Post by Devonian on Nov 11, 2014 19:31:58 GMT
It's 5% for all others, not just Green. No, I think it is likely to be 5 for Greens. The full tables show the Greens on 4% before adjustments for don't know/refusers, and the LibDems on 1%. In numbers, the LibDems had 7, Greens 23, and others had 3. So, depending on their adjustment for DK/R, Greens will be either 4% or 5%. If you do keep your deposit it will be the first saved deposit for the Green Party in a by election since Norwich North in 2009. Could be a good sign for your lot before the General election. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2014 19:44:53 GMT
No, I think it is likely to be 5 for Greens. The full tables show the Greens on 4% before adjustments for don't know/refusers, and the LibDems on 1%. In numbers, the LibDems had 7, Greens 23, and others had 3. So, depending on their adjustment for DK/R, Greens will be either 4% or 5%. If you do keep your deposit it will be the first saved deposit for the Green Party in a by election since Norwich North in 2009. Could be a good sign for your lot before the General election. Would be nice! We could be benefitting from the facts that a) UKIP are well ahead of the Tories and b) Labour are well behind both. (a) means that there's no real pressure for Green-inclined voters to switch to the Tories to stop UKIP (I know a lot of Greens who would consider doing that, and indeed LibDems and Labour), and equally (b) means there's no pressure for them to switch to Labour to support a possible Labour win. Could be an interesting result for us - but polls aren't the same as votes, so I'm not counting on getting 5% _just_ yet |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2014 20:10:41 GMT
It's 5% for all others, not just Green. There were 3 people (1 people before profit, 2 not listed) in the other category that did not say Green and that's less than 1%. SOoooooo. Green ~5% |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2014 20:36:12 GMT
It's 5% for all others, not just Green. Do we know how the "Others" break down? I'm glad it's becoming more commonplace on this site, where possible, to include all the smaller political parties when reporting opinion poll results, perhaps as long as they're getting at least 1% after rounding up. It puts us a step above the way the media and other political websites - including UKPR - report them, and more importantly it makes it more fun. |
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Post by Devonian on Nov 11, 2014 20:45:58 GMT
It's 5% for all others, not just Green. Do we know how the "Others" break down? I'm glad it's becoming more commonplace on this site, where possible, to include all the smaller political parties when reporting opinion poll results, perhaps as long as they're getting at least 1% after rounding up. It puts us a step above the way the media and other political websites - including UKPR - report them, and more importantly it makes it more fun. The full tables are here lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Rochester-Strood-poll-Nov-14-Full-tables.pdfThe final table before the headline figures marked "THIS TABLE DOES NOT INCLUDE ADJUSTMENT FOR DON'T KNOW/REFUSERS" was UKIP 47% (254) Con 31% (168) Lab 16% (88) Green 4% (23) LibDem 1% (7) |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 12, 2014 13:38:53 GMT
Also worth noting the Ashcroft poll contains a GE voting intention which puts the Conservatives back in the lead in the constituency.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 12, 2014 13:43:15 GMT
Yes, but only just. If there is a big UKIP win next week, their chances in 2015 must be pretty fair.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 12, 2014 14:43:01 GMT
I think currently I'd expect Reckless to win fairly comfortably next week and it to be close next May, depending how the next 6 months go. Carswell I'd expect to be comfortable next May in almost all circumstances.
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 12, 2014 15:50:42 GMT
Also worth noting the Ashcroft poll contains a GE voting intention which puts the Conservatives back in the lead in the constituency. I think it's probably not worth asking people how they intend to vote two elections into the future. Too unreliable. |
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john07
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Post by john07 on Nov 12, 2014 16:25:08 GMT
I think currently I'd expect Reckless to win fairly comfortably next week and it to be close next May, depending how the next 6 months go. Carswell I'd expect to be comfortable next May in almost all circumstances. Interesting parallels with Lincoln in the 1970s. Taverne was elected in a by-election in 1973 by a massive 13,000+ majority. In February 1974 he hung on by just over 1,000 votes and lost in October 1974 by a similar margin. |
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