Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,843 
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Post by Crimson King on Aug 28, 2014 18:31:10 GMT
Should UKIP win I would imagine that they would have a few more Tory to UKIP defections ready for the aftermath, but would be able to say that there was no need to go to the trouble and expense of holding by elections so close to the GE, having made the point once
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 28, 2014 18:31:35 GMT
Carswell claims local factors motivated his decision. It seems a bit boilerplate, but reading between the lines I think we can assume that he'll be opposing new homes in the area, which makes it more likely that the next Local Plan won't pass muster and in its absence we'll get a few thousand homes chucked on the edge of Clacton than would happen otherwise. |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Clacton
Aug 28, 2014 18:41:12 GMT
via mobile
Post by neilm on Aug 28, 2014 18:41:12 GMT
Patriotic Socialist Party announce they'll be standing. Golly. Really has thrown a spanner into the mix that. They really have! Facebook tells me a that all will be revealed in due course. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 28, 2014 18:45:35 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 28, 2014 19:04:24 GMT
17% of adults in Clacton are over the age of 75, but since they turn out at much higher rates than younger people it's possible they could account for as much as 25% of votes cast in the by-election.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 28, 2014 19:09:08 GMT
Carswell is very popular in Clacton . Not particularly. He's far from unpopular, but he's not exactly a local demigod. Arguably he's actually not a very good fit for the constituency, though he's a good enough campaigner and the circumstances are favourable enough that backlash is unlikely. I think he will do OK but it depends upon who the Conservative candidate is? If they pick some local councillor it will be disaster. Yes, but only because of who the local councillors are. Their best bet would be somebody local to Clacton. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2014 19:26:44 GMT
Patriotic Socialist Party announce they'll be standing. Golly. Really has thrown a spanner into the mix that. 'Spanner' being the polite word to use to describe the candidate |
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 28, 2014 19:27:02 GMT
Not at all - it may be Mr Carswell who finds the party isn't what he expected it to be... We're a broad church and he will find some that agree with him, some that will disagree, and many that find comfort in the middle... But will Carswell defecting make it more or less likely that UKIP could attract people from the left? I would suggest less - he is so clearly anti-Labour and associated with the libertarian Right I'm not sure who of Labour's small number of anti's would be likely to jump, as they tend to be either on the far left or mavericks who wouldn't fit into any party No, Mersey. people thinking of changing or just having a punt next year won't even remember Carswell and if they do they will no nothing about him or his views. You speak as if cold serious decisions are being made by the public based on an assessment of character, a knowledge of core political beliefs, and a close reading of the party manifestos. People aren't like that. I am really interested and have been involved at various levels of politics for over 50-years and I have rarely met people who look at the small print as it were. Indeed I can reveal that I have never read a party manifesto by any party in my life because they are boring, tedious tendentious and usually not put into practice. |
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 28, 2014 19:28:01 GMT
He's made it a damn sight more likely that I'll jump ship. Oh I do hoped so. Come on in the water's fine. |
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 28, 2014 19:29:35 GMT
UKIP have certainly benefited from a lack of definition (beyond opposition to certain things). But if they want to thrive over the long term maybe they need to define themselves in a clearer way, even at the cost of alienating some groups of voters? All idle speculation, mind. No, not yet, keep it light and ill-defined. Keep being the anti-party party. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 28, 2014 19:46:24 GMT
Patriotic Socialist Party announce they'll be standing. Golly. Really has thrown a spanner into the mix that. Look on the bright side: it'll reduce the national debt by £500. |
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 28, 2014 19:56:32 GMT
But will Carswell defecting make it more or less likely that UKIP could attract people from the left? I would suggest less - he is so clearly anti-Labour and associated with the libertarian Right I'm not sure who of Labour's small number of anti's would be likely to jump, as they tend to be either on the far left or mavericks who wouldn't fit into any party No, Mersey. people thinking of changing or just having a punt next year won't even remember Carswell and if they do they will no nothing about him or his views. You speak as if cold serious decisions are being made by the public based on an assessment of character, a knowledge of core political beliefs, and a close reading of the party manifestos. People aren't like that. I am really interested and have been involved at various levels of politics for over 50-years and I have rarely met people who look at the small print as it were. Indeed I can reveal that I have never read a party manifesto by any party in my life because they are boring, tedious tendentious and usually not put into practice. I should have clarified - I was talking about defections, not voters - but if you remember the SDP, they didn't pick up the Tory voters they were hoping to, and I think a lot of that came down to the fact that everyone bar one who defected in parliament was a Labour MP. The SDP appeared to be very much the product of a Labour party internal split. If other Tories follow Carswell the same impression could be given - and certainly that will be what we will say! |
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 28, 2014 19:57:44 GMT
He's made it a damn sight more likely that I'll jump ship. Exactly...... but I think an anti-EU trade unionist will look at Carswell's bone-dry policies on public spending and welfare and think 'not on your nelly' |
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 28, 2014 19:58:39 GMT
Betfair:
UKIP 1.25
Con 4.1
Lab 5
LD 34
Oth 50
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Aug 28, 2014 20:00:01 GMT
The problem there is that I am an anti EU trades unionist. Admittedly I'm not in the usual mould!
My views on the role and functions of the state are evolving. A lot of what he says appeals to me and has done for some time. If Labour pulled their finger out they could appeal to me.
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 28, 2014 20:08:36 GMT
The problem there is that I am an anti EU trades unionist. Admittedly I'm not in the usual mould! My views on the role and functions of the state are evolving. A lot of what he says appeals to me and has done for some time. If Labour pulled their finger out they could appeal to me. But then they probably wouldn't appeal to me as well......wonder how long this big catch all party thing can sustain? |
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 28, 2014 20:25:08 GMT
Louise Mensch: "What a self-indulgent, toys out of the pram, whiny Labour-supporting tosser Carswell is. Doubt Clacton will be impressed" erm, she really tweed it! Why do we keep hearing from and about this gormless stupid self-seeking vacuous waste of space? Why isn't she in the US of A where she promised to go to be with the new Mr Bagshawe? An interval of silence is desirable......for about 80-years! Mind you, she has an ability to unite people from across the political spectrum which is almost unparalleled in modern British politics.  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 28, 2014 20:26:17 GMT
He's made it a damn sight more likely that I'll jump ship. Exactly...... but I think an anti-EU trade unionist will look at Carswell's bone-dry policies on public spending and welfare and think 'not on your nelly' Not this anti-EU trade unionist |
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 28, 2014 20:29:57 GMT
Exactly...... but I think an anti-EU trade unionist will look at Carswell's bone-dry policies on public spending and welfare and think 'not on your nelly' Not this anti-EU trade unionist But you are a right-wing anti-EU trade unionist. I'm talking about UKIP attracting people from the left as well as the right. I think that will be less likely if they become associated primarily with discontented Tories Carswell is very much associated with small-state libertarian views, which to an extent UKIP have played down in recent months - perhaps coming up to the election, this will be more of a focus again? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 28, 2014 20:31:04 GMT
I hope so yes
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