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Post by middleenglander on Aug 1, 2014 17:32:48 GMT
It looks like 9 by-elections during August:
- 5 on 7th August
- 2 on 14th August
- 1 on 21st August
- 1 in 28th August
7 of the contests are for district councils
- 5 where the last elections were in 2011, including 2 single member wards
- 2 with annual elections although one is in a two member with election every other year
1 in a London borough last contested in May
1 in a metropolitan borough also last contested in May
Conservatives are defending 3 seats, all following the death of the former councillor
Labour are defending 2 seats, one following a death and another disqualification for being an ineligible candidate
Liberal Democrats are defending 3 seats, two after a resignation and one a disqualification for non-attendance
Greens are defending 1 seat following the election of the former councillor as a MEP
Conservatives are contesting all 9 seats, Labour 8, Liberal Democrats 7 with 7 UKIP, 5 Greens and 1 each for Independent, TUSAC and No description - a total of 39 candidates.
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on the day of the election.
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Post by Robert Waller on Aug 6, 2014 22:15:57 GMT
Myth has put predictions for 7 August on the July thread.
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Post by Robert Waller on Aug 6, 2014 22:19:27 GMT
My own predictions:
Epping Forest DC - Broadley Common, Epping Upland & Nazing
con 60
ukip 31
lib dem 4
green 5
Huntingtonshire DC - Warboys & Bury
con 50
ukip 32
lab 10
lib dem 8
Malvern Hills DC - Wells
con 32
lib dem 17
ukip 16
lab 10
indy 25
Stroud DC - Valley
green 41
lab 29
con 15
ukip 13
tusc 2
Worthing BC - Castle
ukip 30
con 30.5
lab 17.5
lib dem 16
green 6
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myth11
Non-Aligned
too busy at work!
Posts: 2,839 
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Post by myth11 on Aug 6, 2014 22:39:35 GMT
long long long day at work  i will get this right  Epping Forest DC - Broadley Common, Epping Upland & Nazin con 50 ukip 30 lib dem 10.5 green 9.5 Huntingtonshire DC - Warboys & Bury con 40 ukip 30 lab 16 lib dem 14 Malvern Hills DC - Wells con 42 lib dem 28 ukip 18 lab 7 indy 5 Stroud DC - Valley green 36 lab 34 con 14 ukip 13 tusac 3 Worthing BC - Castle ukip 35 con 34 lab 14 lib dem 12 green 5 |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 6, 2014 22:52:50 GMT
EPPING FOREST Broadley Common, Epping Upland and Nazeing: C 49, UKIP 39, GP 7, L Dem 5
HUNTINGDONSHIRE Warboys and Bury: UKIP 50, C 38, Lab 7, L Dem 5
MALVERN HILLS Wells: C 35, UKIP 25, Ind 17, L Dem 15, Lab 8
STROUD Valley: GP 53, Lab 21, C 15, UKIP 9, TUSC 2
WORTHING Castle: C 34, UKIP 30, Lab 22, L Dem 9, GP 5
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Post by brianj on Aug 6, 2014 23:03:34 GMT
Epping Forest, Broadley Common et cetera: Con 58, UKIP 28, Green 10, LibDem 4.
Huntingdonshire, Warboys and Bury: Con 42, UKIP 31, Lab 14, LibDem 13.
Malvern Hills, Wells: UKIP 36, Con 30, Ind 18, Lab 9, LibDem 7.
Stroud, Valley: Green 48, UKIP 21, Lab 16, Con 10, TUSC 5.
Worthing, Castle: UKIP 37, Con 33, Lab 16, Green 9, LibDem 7.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2014 0:29:22 GMT
Epping Forest
Con 58
Ukip 30
Green7
Ld 5
Stroud
Green 45
Lab 28
Con 14
Ukip 11
Tusc 2
Huntingdonshire
Con 42
Ukip 40
Lab 10
Ld 8
Malvern
Con 36
Ind 21
Ukip 19
Ld 16
Lab 8
Worthing
Con 33
Ukip 30
Lab. 20
Green 9
Ld 8
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Post by marksenior on Aug 7, 2014 7:01:02 GMT
Epping Con 63 UKIP 24 Green 7 LD 6
Hunts Con 53 UKIP 28 Lab 12 LD 7
Malvern Con 42 UKIP 20 LD 17 Ind 12 Lab 9
Stroud Green 38 Lab 27 Con 18 UKIP 15 TUSC 2
Worthing Con 35 UKIP 27 Lab 18 LD 11 Green 9
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carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,887
Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 7, 2014 7:17:37 GMT
Epping Forest C 51; UKIP 37; Green 7; Ld 5.
Hunts C 41; UKIP 38; Lab 13; LD 8
Malvern C 38; UKIP 27; LD 11; Ind 18; Lab 6
Stroud Green 32; Lab 25; UKIP 22; C 19; TUSC 2
Worthing UKIP 32; C 31; Lab 20; Green 12; LD 5
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Post by Philip Davies on Aug 7, 2014 8:21:18 GMT
Epping Forest - Broadley Common, Epping Upland & NazingRobert Glozier (The Conservative Party Candidate) 62 William Hartington (The Green Party) 10 Ron McEvoy (UKIP) 22 Arnold Verrall (Liberal Democrats) 6 Huntingtonshire - Warboys & BuryAngie Curtis (The Conservative Party Candidate) 54.8 Mary Howell (Labour Party Candidate) 11.2 Michael Tew (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 23.7 Christine Wills (Liberal Democrat) 10.3 Malvern Hills - WellsChristopher Burrows (Labour Party Candidate) 10 Louise Gibson (Independent) 5 Simon Gill (Liberal Democrat) 17 Chris O'Donnell (The Conservative Party) 45 Richard Spencer (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 23 Stroud - ValleyMartin Baxendale (Green Party) 40.7 Stephen Davies (The Conservative Party Candidate) 15.6 James Heslop (Labour Party Candidate) 28.3 Stuart Love (UK Independence Party) 13.9 Lucy Roberts (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 1.5 Worthing - CastleJim Deen (The Labour Party Candidate) 15.3 Alex Harman (The Conservative Party Candidate) 31.2 Charles James (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 19.8 Stefan Sykes (Green Party) 3.9 Nicholas Wiltshire (Liberal Democrats) 29.8 |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 7, 2014 8:34:58 GMT
Epping Forest DC - Broadley Common etc Con 57.3% UKIP 30.2% Grn 6.8% LD 5.7% Huntingdonshire DC - Warboys & Bury UKIP 43.9% Con 40.1% Lab 8.5% LD 7.5% Malvern Hills DC - Wells Con 32.1% LD 25.3% Ind 18.9% UKIP 16.2% Lab 7.5% Stroud DC - Valley Grn 38.5% Lab 28.5% Con 17.7% UKIP 13.7% TUSC 1.6% Worthing BC - Castle UKIP 28.4% Con 28.1% LD 18.5% Lab 16.1% Grn 8.9% |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 7, 2014 8:46:12 GMT
I wonder how many people spotted that Warboys and Bury ward is immedately south of the town of Ramsey (aka UKIPville), and that the UKIP candidate is the county councillor for the area who defeated the leader of Huntingdonshire district council in the 2013 election.
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Post by marksenior on Aug 7, 2014 10:19:35 GMT
I wonder how many people spotted that Warboys and Bury ward is immedately south of the town of Ramsey (aka UKIPville), and that the UKIP candidate is the county councillor for the area who defeated the leader of Huntingdonshire district council in the 2013 election. Yes true but the result in May this year did not show an increased level of UKIP support rather the reverse |
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Post by Robert Waller on Aug 7, 2014 23:03:43 GMT
After the first three results in Worthing, Huntingdonshire and Stroud
I think the front runners are currently myself, Myth, Joe and Pete, all within about 10 faults, then a gap to the other five.
Of course Tonyotim, the reigning monthly champion, may have left some predictions with MiddleEnglander
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Post by Robert Waller on Aug 8, 2014 10:28:47 GMT
Think Myth may have won the week.
If so, may I be the first to offer congratulations?
However, please do not rely on my rough addition!
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 8, 2014 20:28:12 GMT
9 entries this week with brianj getting 2 additional faults for adding to 102% in Worthing
- Carlton43 rejoins but hempie on holiday and tonyotim does not appear to be back.
Epping Forest: 100% Conservative hold
Huntingdonshire: 7 Conservative hold with David Boothroyd & Pete Whitehead a UKIP gain
Malvern Hills: 8 Conservative hold with brianj a UKIP gain
Stroud: 100% Green hold
Worthing: 5 Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat with brianj, Carlton43, Myth11 and Pete Whitehead a UKIP gain
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 8, 2014 21:22:20 GMT
Epping, Broadley Common, Epping Upland & Nazeing
David Boothroyd 5.4 faults, Carlton43 6.5, Joe, Myth11 & Pete Whitehead 20.5, Robert Waller 22.5, brianj 23.5, Mark Senior 32.5, PhilDav 35.5
Huntingdonshire, Warboys & Bury
Joe 13.4 faults, Carlton43 19.4, Robert Waller 20.3, Pete Whitehead 13.0+10, Mark Senior 28.3, David Boothroyd 18.9+10, brianj 31.4, PhilDav 36.9, Myth11 37.4
Malvern Hills, Malvern Wells
Myth11 11.8, Mark Senior 19.5, Pete Whitehead 19.9, Joe 24.9, PhilDav 27.4, David Boothroyd 28.9, Robert Waller 35.4, Carlton43 36.2, brianj 54.2+10
Stroud, Valley
Joe 12.7 faults, Myth11 13.6, Robert Waller 13.9, PhilDav 16.9, Pete Whitehead 20.7, Mark Senior 23.9, David Boothroyd 30.7, brianj 35.6, Carlton43 39.9
Worthing, Castle
Myth11 11.1 faults, brianj 19.4+2, Pete Whitehead 23.7, Robert waller 15.7+10, Carlton43 32.1, David Boothroyd 27.1+10, Joe & Mark Senior 29.1+10, PhilDav 34.7+10
and for the first week of August
94.4 Myth11
107.7 Pete Whitehead
110.6 Joe
117.7 Robert Waller
131.0 David Boothroyd
134.1 Carlton43
143.3 Mark Senior
161.3 PhilDav
176.1 brianj
Objections please by 5.00 pm Sunday
Two by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 9, 2014 14:16:43 GMT
Congratulations to Myth for the week! I'll be back for the rest of the month although carrying 500 faults with only 4 contests left, I'm playing for 10th place  |
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myth11
Non-Aligned
too busy at work!
Posts: 2,839
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Post by myth11 on Aug 10, 2014 13:35:45 GMT
Congratulations to Myth for the week! I'll be back for the rest of the month although carrying 500 faults with only 4 contests left, I'm playing for 10th place tks you were a big help with castle |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 10, 2014 13:36:46 GMT
Congratulations to Myth for the week! I'll be back for the rest of the month although carrying 500 faults with only 4 contests left, I'm playing for 10th place tks you were a big help with castle I think you're getting me confused with James - we're not tremendously close geographically. |
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i will get this right 
