Prediction Competition For August 2014

[brianj]

Newcastle Upon Tyne, North Jesmond: Lab 33, LibDem 26, Green 16, UKIP 15, Con 10.

[Robert Waller]

Newcastle upon Tyne - North Jesmond

lab 31

lib dem 42

green 10

con 11

ukip 6

[Philip Davies]

Newcastle upon Tyne - North Jesmond
Duncan Crute (The Conservative Party Candidate) 13.9
Gerard Keating (Liberal Democrats) 38
Shehla Naqvi (The Green Party) 11
Peter Smith (Labour and Co-operative Party Candidate) 31.4
Daniel Thompson (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 5.7

[Davıd Boothroyd]

NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE North Jesmond: Lab 36, L Dem 34, C 12, GP 10, UKIP 8

[carlton43]

N-U-T N Jesmond LD 33.8 Lab 33.5 UKIP 17.3 Green 9.8 Con 5.6

[Deleted]

Aug 28, 2014 0:40:25 GMT carlton43 said:

N-U-T N Jesmond LD 33.8 Lab 33.5 UKIP 17.3 Green 9.8 Con 5.6

Interesting UKIP prediction for a liberal middle class inner city area

[brianj]

I wouldn't discount it. I have a sneaking suspicion that the Rotherham mass rape is going to do interesting things to the body politic in the coming months. Also, not all of the area is middle class or liberal.

Of course, looking at my prediction record, I could be wrong.

[marksenior]

Newcastle LD 40 Lab 31 Green 11 Con 10 UKIP 8

[Tony Otim]

Aug 27, 2014 15:58:32 GMT Tony Otim said:

Newcastle:
LD 36.1
Lab 33.5
Con 13.7
Grn 9.4
UKIP 7.3

[Pete Whitehead]

Aug 27, 2014 23:17:39 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Newcastle MB - NOrth Jesmond

LD    38.2
Lab  32.6
Con  13.7
Grn    8.7
UKIP  6.8

[Deleted]

Aug 28, 2014 0:11:04 GMT 1 Joe said:
Ld 46.5
lab 25
con 12
green 11
ukip 5.5

[carlton43]

Aug 28, 2014 2:39:20 GMT brianj said:

I wouldn't discount it. I have a sneaking suspicion that the Rotherham mass rape is going to do interesting things to the body politic in the coming months. Also, not all of the area is middle class or liberal.

Of course, looking at my prediction record, I could be wrong.

You are correct Brian. Like you I have a poor record here so I went for a punt on a backlash effect narrowing the leaders vote and tightening the result, plus a bit of a puff for UKIP, and consequent squeeze on others. We shall triumph or crash and burn together!

[Deleted]

Aug 28, 2014 2:39:20 GMT brianj said:

I wouldn't discount it. I have a sneaking suspicion that the Rotherham mass rape is going to do interesting things to the body politic in the coming months. Also, not all of the area is middle class or liberal.

Of course, looking at my prediction record, I could be wrong.

More or less - yes it is. This, E + W Gosforth and Parklands are the more middle class wards in the city and this is arguably the most so. The difference electorally is the huge student population and to a degree being more "trendy" than the other three.

That isn't to say that labour can't do well - but I would be shocked if UKIP did anything other than poorly. Its probably the worst ward in Newcastle for ukip potential

[carlton43]

Aug 28, 2014 10:26:50 GMT joe said:

Aug 28, 2014 2:39:20 GMT brianj said:

I wouldn't discount it. I have a sneaking suspicion that the Rotherham mass rape is going to do interesting things to the body politic in the coming months. Also, not all of the area is middle class or liberal.

Of course, looking at my prediction record, I could be wrong.

More or less - yes it is. This, E + W Gosforth and Parklands are the more middle class wards in the city and this is arguably the most so. The difference electorally is the huge student population and to a degree being more "trendy" than the other three.

That isn't to say that labour can't do well - but I would be shocked if UKIP did anything other than poorly. Its probably the worst ward in Newcastle for ukip potential

It looks as if we are stuffed Brian!

[Deleted]

Aug 28, 2014 14:01:46 GMT carlton43 said:

Aug 28, 2014 10:26:50 GMT joe said:

More or less - yes it is. This, E + W Gosforth and Parklands are the more middle class wards in the city and this is arguably the most so. The difference electorally is the huge student population and to a degree being more "trendy" than the other three.

That isn't to say that labour can't do well - but I would be shocked if UKIP did anything other than poorly. Its probably the worst ward in Newcastle for ukip potential

It looks as if we are stuffed Brian!

Sorry - didn't mean to come across as arrogant - realise my post may have come across that way. Just trying to give my 2p on my home ward.

[carlton43]

Aug 28, 2014 14:17:42 GMT joe said:

Aug 28, 2014 14:01:46 GMT carlton43 said:

It looks as if we are stuffed Brian!

Sorry - didn't mean to come across as arrogant - realise my post may have come across that way. Just trying to give my 2p on my home ward.

Not at all Joe. Your patch and your call. Two of you posted quite enough info to have kept us straight. I just felt like a punt and now acknowledge error. Last week I had a strong hunch and failed to follow it. This time I did. Got it wrong way round on the weeks. My Father lived in the ward on the Jesmond Road for a few years in the 20s. 

[Deleted]

mrhell

Fancy a guest prediction? Would be interesting to see what you come up with.

[mrhell]

Jesmond Road was the old boundary between Jesmond and Sandyford. It's now in South Jesmond. UKIP got a better result than I thought they would in May and still finished fifth. I try to make a comment at 10pm.

[middleenglander]

10 entries this week, all ship-shape and Bristol fashion.

7 predict a Liberal Democrat hold in Newcastle-Upon-Tyne with brainj, David Boothroyd and Myth11 a Labour gain.

If the Liberal Democrats win big, then Joe can overhaul Pete Whitehead to be the champion for August.
However if Labour gain the seat it is likely Myth11 will be the champion although it is possible Pete could still hang on.

[Robert Waller]

Well, the Liberal Democrats did 'win big', and I think it looks very close between Joe and Pete for the month.
Joe definitely clear winner for the week.

I also reckon Joe will take the lead from me in the Form Guide.

Well done all round Joe!