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Post by Devonian on Oct 13, 2014 15:39:39 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2014 16:37:47 GMT
Loving the polls at the moment. Another win in Rochester and we will be rocking. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2014 16:54:44 GMT
I wonder if one of the moderators could change the title of this thread to something that makes sense. Richard, if you report the thread via the button at top right, Kris or Boogie may well do something |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Oct 16, 2014 11:20:47 GMT
New constituency polls Brentford and Isleworth: Lab 45 Con 32 LD 10 UKIP 7 Brighton Kemptown: Lab 37 Con 33 UKIP 13 LD 6 Corby: Lab 40 Con 30 UKIP 21 LD 5 Enfield North: Lab 44 Con 34 UKIP 12 LD 3 Gloucester: Con 34 Lab 33 UKIP 18 LD 12 Halesowen: Lab 35 Con 34 UKIP 24 LD 2 Hastings and Rye: Lab 40 Con 31 UKIP 19 LD 5 Hove: Lab 37 Con 34 UKIP 11 LD 6 Ipswich: Lab 38 Con 31 UKIP 19 LD 6 Nuneaton: Lab 39 Con 36 UKIP 19 LD 3 Pudsey: Lab 36 Con 36 UKIP 15 LD 9 lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/10/back-con-lab-battleground/ |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2014 11:24:43 GMT
New constituency polls Brentford and Isleworth: Lab 45 Con 32 LD 10 UKIP 7 Brighton Kemptown: Lab 37 Con 33 UKIP 13 LD 6 Corby: Lab 40 Con 30 UKIP 21 LD 5 Enfield North: Lab 44 Con 34 UKIP 12 LD 3 Gloucester: Con 34 Lab 33 UKIP 18 LD 12 Halesowen: Lab 35 Con 34 UKIP 24 LD 2 Hastings and Rye: Lab 40 Con 31 UKIP 19 LD 5 Hove: Lab 37 Con 34 UKIP 11 LD 6 Ipswich: Lab 38 Con 31 UKIP 19 LD 6 Nuneaton: Lab 39 Con 36 UKIP 19 LD 3 Pudsey: Lab 36 Con 36 UKIP 15 LD 9 lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/10/back-con-lab-battleground/problem is the track record with constituency polls accuracy in Clacton was good. However ....... |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 16, 2014 11:27:00 GMT
Actually they haven't been bad in by-elections this parliament - H&M was an exception.
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iain
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Post by iain on Oct 16, 2014 11:33:40 GMT
Significant scores for the Greens in Hove (12%) and Kemptown (10%)
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Post by thirdchill on Oct 16, 2014 11:43:44 GMT
New constituency polls Brentford and Isleworth: Lab 45 Con 32 LD 10 UKIP 7 Brighton Kemptown: Lab 37 Con 33 UKIP 13 LD 6 Corby: Lab 40 Con 30 UKIP 21 LD 5 Enfield North: Lab 44 Con 34 UKIP 12 LD 3 Gloucester: Con 34 Lab 33 UKIP 18 LD 12 Halesowen: Lab 35 Con 34 UKIP 24 LD 2 Hastings and Rye: Lab 40 Con 31 UKIP 19 LD 5 Hove: Lab 37 Con 34 UKIP 11 LD 6 Ipswich: Lab 38 Con 31 UKIP 19 LD 6 Nuneaton: Lab 39 Con 36 UKIP 19 LD 3 Pudsey: Lab 36 Con 36 UKIP 15 LD 9 lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/10/back-con-lab-battleground/problem is the track record with constituency polls accuracy in Clacton was good. However ....... Actually a number of these conform to expectations. the two London seats and Corby (gained in a by-election) have the biggest margins, which prove correct. These three are likely to be labour in a G.E. Most of the others all look too close to call, especially as labour are only a few points ahead in some of them (and this has already taken the LD collapse into account). However, as Sibboleth says repeatedly, constituency polls aren't usually too accurate. So big caveat here. |
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sdoerr
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Post by sdoerr on Oct 20, 2014 15:51:02 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 21, 2014 10:32:58 GMT
The first poll to officially put the LibDems in fifth - probably not the last, though.....
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2014 11:20:56 GMT
The first poll to officially put the LibDems in fifth - probably not the last, though..... There's a possibility they were fifth at some stage in 1989 when the Greens were doing well and David Owen had a relatively good day. I'd have to look it up when I get home. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 21, 2014 13:09:27 GMT
The first poll to officially put the LibDems in fifth - probably not the last, though..... There's a possibility they were fifth at some stage in 1989 when the Greens were doing well and David Owen had a relatively good day. I'd have to look it up when I get home. It may have happened once or twice in mid-1989, yes. Plus a previous Ashcroft poll had the Greens ahead of the LibDems IIRC, but their figure wasn't published then. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2014 16:26:36 GMT
As far as I can see there was just one occasion in 1989 that an opinion poll put the Liberal Democrats in fifth place - an Audience Selection one conducted by telephone from 28th-31st July (Lab 41, Con 38, Green 11, SDP 5, LD 4).
The Green Party did come third on numerous occasions in the European Elections and in the opinion polls up until as late as May 1990 when the Owenite SDP was wound up.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Oct 21, 2014 18:34:10 GMT
As far as I can see there was just one occasion in 1989 that an opinion poll put the Liberal Democrats in fifth place - an Audience Selection one conducted by telephone from 28th-31st July (Lab 41, Con 38, Green 11, SDP 5, LD 4). The Green Party did come third on numerous occasions in the European Elections and in the opinion polls up until as late as May 1990 when the Owenite SDP was wound up. Weren't the Lib Dems known as the SLD back then? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2014 18:42:58 GMT
As far as I can see there was just one occasion in 1989 that an opinion poll put the Liberal Democrats in fifth place - an Audience Selection one conducted by telephone from 28th-31st July (Lab 41, Con 38, Green 11, SDP 5, LD 4). The Green Party did come third on numerous occasions in the European Elections and in the opinion polls up until as late as May 1990 when the Owenite SDP was wound up. Weren't the Lib Dems known as the SLD back then? Probably, I can't remember off hand. People still call my party the Tories. |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Oct 27, 2014 11:39:49 GMT
Here's a map of Ashcroft's constituency polls so far. The lighter colour shows that the poll was within the margin of error (3%). Special mention must go to Cornwall North, Pudsey, Southampton Itchen and Torbay where the headline figures showed two parties with the same score, though in all cases there were small differences when you looked in the tables. In cases where the constituency has been polled more than once, I have used the most recent poll. Further polls: 'are there vulnerable but hitherto unpolled Lib Dem seats in England and Wales? Could UKIP be making a significant impact in places we have not yet looked at> And what is happening in Scotland, where the big SNP gains some expect could change the equation significantly, especially if they are at the expense of Labour? I will aim to examine these questions in future rounds of battleground research. ' Attachments:
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Post by Devonian on Oct 27, 2014 17:42:33 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 3, 2014 16:23:47 GMT
Con 30% (-1)
Lab 29% (-2)
UKIP 16% (-2)
LD 10% (+3)
Greens 6% (+1)
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sdoerr
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Post by sdoerr on Nov 3, 2014 16:26:01 GMT
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Post by Devonian on Nov 4, 2014 18:51:21 GMT
New set of Ashcroft constituency polls due out 11am tomorrow
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