|
|
Post by thirdchill on Nov 4, 2014 18:54:43 GMT
Ashcroft's polls seem very volatile, one week they can show a conservative lead, the next they can labour lead of 4 points. Does his methodology differ from other pollsters?
|
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 5, 2014 11:23:10 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by woollyliberal on Nov 5, 2014 11:33:40 GMT
Ashcroft's polls seem very volatile, one week they can show a conservative lead, the next they can labour lead of 4 points. Does his methodology differ from other pollsters? That's why I stopped follwing them. The swing from poll to poll is so large that you can't trust what they say. Averaging several week's polls together will remove much of the statistical noise, but that makes them no better than a monthly poll. It also makes his constituency polls worth less than face value. Each poll seems to have a margin of error around 6 or 8 points, given the movement from week to week. A one off constituency poll could be (and probably is) miles out. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,075
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Nov 5, 2014 11:41:28 GMT
I think the constituency polls are more reliable, though that is little more than a hunch.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 5, 2014 11:54:13 GMT
Slightly strange that the LD share in Cannock dopubles from 4 to 8% on the constituency specific poll although AFAICT they don't have a candidate yet. This seems to be mostly at the expense of UKIP who otherwise would be ahead. That seat certainly doens't look like the nailed on Labour gain that some think it is, based on this evidence
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,455 
|
Post by iain on Nov 5, 2014 12:25:35 GMT
Slightly strange that the LD share in Cannock dopubles from 4 to 8% on the constituency specific poll although AFAICT they don't have a candidate yet. This seems to be mostly at the expense of UKIP who otherwise would be ahead. That seat certainly doens't look like the nailed on Labour gain that some think it is, based on this evidence The Lib Dems have historically done quite well here at council level. We got a similar boost in Bedford. |
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,455
|
Post by iain on Nov 5, 2014 15:02:35 GMT
Updated map Labour hold - 13 (1 within MOE) Labour gain from Conservative - 41 (11 within MOE) Labour gain from Lib Dem - 8 (1 within MOE) Labour gain from Green - 1 (1 within MOE) Conservative hold - 10 (6 within MOE) Conservative gain from Lib Dem - 8 (2 within MOE) Lib Dem hold - 7 (3 within MOE) Attachments:
|
|
|
|
Post by Devonian on Nov 5, 2014 17:51:21 GMT
Details of the latest constituency polls at a glance  |
|
|
|
Post by Devonian on Nov 11, 2014 8:48:23 GMT
Con 30%, Lab 29%, Lib Dem 10%, UKIP 16%, Green 7%
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 11, 2014 9:25:00 GMT
8% others?
|
|
|
|
Post by Devonian on Nov 17, 2014 16:42:47 GMT
Con 29%, Lab 30%, Lib Dem 9%, UKIP 16%, Green 7%
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,075
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Dec 2, 2014 11:23:56 GMT
Latest poll - Lab 32 Con 30 UKIP 16 LibDem 7 Green 6.
|
|
|
|
Post by Devonian on Dec 8, 2014 16:02:38 GMT
Lab 31% (-1)
Con 30% (nc)
UKIP 19% (+3)
Lib Dem 8% (+1)
Green 5% (-1)
|
|
|
|
Post by Devonian on Dec 8, 2014 16:30:37 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by Devonian on Dec 8, 2014 16:31:14 GMT
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,075
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Dec 16, 2014 10:56:26 GMT
No poll from his lordship yesterday, then?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2014 12:03:12 GMT
No poll from his lordship yesterday, then? I think Anthony Wells on UKPR said that the Ashcroft polls have stopped until after Christmas |
|
|
|
Post by Arthur Figgis on Dec 16, 2014 12:07:40 GMT
The =Rand() function in Excel has stopped working on his laptop.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2014 18:00:35 GMT
No poll from his lordship yesterday, then? He might have gone on his holidays. |
|
|
|
Post by Devonian on Jan 12, 2015 16:06:03 GMT
Now the same day Populus showed a five point lead for Labour Lord Ashcroft shows a six point lead for the Conservatives (and lets not forget Suday's YouGov showing them neck and neck)
Con 34% (+4)
Lab 28% (-3)
UKIP 16% (-3)
L Dem 8% (nc)
Green 8% (+3)
|
|
