Ashcroft week poll

[Richard Allen]

Sept 15, 2014 22:46:22 GMT greenchristian said:

Sept 15, 2014 22:38:47 GMT joe said:

I used to think that was just a tory myth "My dad voted labour, his dad voted labour blah blah blah" but have heard it a few times now - once from someone who is really intelligent enough to know better.

In Coventry, it's quite common to come across this on the doorstep. I've had plenty of conversations where the voter clearly realises that it's illogical, but still intends to vote Labour out of habit.

A few months back I had a lovely conversation with a truly charming individual who was adamant that the first priority of any government should be to stop all those bloody foreigners coming in. He was equally adamant that he will only ever vote Labour.

[Devonian]

LAB 33% (nc)
CON 27% (-6)
UKIP 17% (+3)
LDEM 9% (nc)
GRN 6% (nc)

lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/09/ashcroft-national-poll-con-27-lab-33-lib-dem-9-ukip-17-green-6/

[Devonian]

Full details

[Devonian]

Lord Ashcroft has just been presenting the results of marginals polling at the Conservative Party Conference. Apparently he has found that only 63% of those who voted Tory in 2010 would vote Tory again if the election were held today. He has also apparently said that the Tories only need to lose 22 seats to Labour to be the smaller party but are already behind in 24.

[iain]

More LD focused constituency polls:
Oxford West & Abingdon: Con 38%, LD 30%, Lab 18%, UKIP 9%, Grn 4%, Oth *
Watford: Lab 29%, Con 27%, LD 25%, UKIP 14%, Grn 4%, Oth 1%

Berwick: Con 33%, LD 30%, UKIP 17%, Lab 16%, Grn 3%, Oth 1%
Cheadle: LD 34%, Con 30%, Lab 19%, UKIP 13%, Grn 2%, Oth 3%
Chippenham: Con 39%, LD 24%, UKIP 16%, Lab 14%, Grn 6%, Oth 1%
Eastbourne: LD 46%, Con 25%, UKIP 18%, Lab 7%, Grn 2%, Oth 2%
Eastleigh: LD 40%, Con 25%, UKIP 21%, Lab 12%, Grn 2%, Oth 1%
Dorset Mid & Poole North: Con 38%, LD 32%, UKIP 19%, Lab 8%, Grn 3%, Oth 1%
Cornwall North: Con 33%, LD 33%, UKIP 20%, Lab 10%, Grn 3%, Oth 1%
Solihull: Con 37%, LD 28%, UKIP 16%, Lab 12%, Grn 6%, Oth 1%
Somerton & Frome: Con 41%, LD 27%, UKIP 17%, Lab 9%, Grn 5%, Oth 1%
St Austell & Newquay: Con 27%, LD 26%, UKIP 25%, Lab 13%, Grn 6%, Oth 3%
St Ives: LD 32%, Con 31%, UKIP 18%, Lab 11%, Grn 6%, Oth 2%
Sutton & Cheam: LD 45%, Con 27%, UKIP 14%, Lab 11%, Grn 3%, Oth *
Taunton Deane: Con 34%, LD 30%, UKIP 15%, Lab 14%, Grn 6%, Oth 1%
Torbay: Con 30%, LD 30%, UKIP 21%, Lab 15%, Grn 3%, Oth 1%
Wells: Con 35%, LD 28%, UKIP 16%, Lab 13%, Grn 7%, Oth *

Bermondsey & Old Southwark: LD 36%, Lab 35%, Con 14%, UKIP 9%, Grn 5%, Oth 2%
Cambridge: Lab 33%, LD 32%, Con 19%, Grn 8%, UKIP 7%, Oth 1%
Cardiff Central: Lab 36%, LD 24%, Con 17%, UKIP 9%, Pld 9%, Grn 5%, Oth *
Hornsey & Wood Green: Lab 43%, LD 30%, Con 14%, Grn 8%, UKIP 3%, Oth 1%
Redcar: Lab 44%, UKIP 23%, LD 18%, Con 12%, Grn 2%, Oth 1%

[thirdchill]

Sept 28, 2014 15:23:01 GMT iain said:

More LD focused constituency polls:
Oxford West & Abingdon: Con 38%, LD 30%, Lab 18%, UKIP 9%, Grn 4%, Oth *
Watford: Lab 29%, Con 27%, LD 25%, UKIP 14%, Grn 4%, Oth 1%

Berwick: Con 33%, LD 30%, UKIP 17%, Lab 16%, Grn 3%, Oth 1%
Cheadle: LD 34%, Con 30%, Lab 19%, UKIP 13%, Grn 2%, Oth 3%
Chippenham: Con 39%, LD 24%, UKIP 16%, Lab 14%, Grn 6%, Oth 1%
Eastbourne: LD 46%, Con 25%, UKIP 18%, Lab 7%, Grn 2%, Oth 2%
Eastleigh: LD 40%, Con 25%, UKIP 21%, Lab 12%, Grn 2%, Oth 1%
Dorset Mid & Poole North: Con 38%, LD 32%, UKIP 19%, Lab 8%, Grn 3%, Oth 1%
Cornwall North: Con 33%, LD 33%, UKIP 20%, Lab 10%, Grn 3%, Oth 1%
Solihull: Con 37%, LD 28%, UKIP 16%, Lab 12%, Grn 6%, Oth 1%
Somerton & Frome: Con 41%, LD 27%, UKIP 17%, Lab 9%, Grn 5%, Oth 1%
St Austell & Newquay: Con 27%, LD 26%, UKIP 25%, Lab 13%, Grn 6%, Oth 3%
St Ives: LD 32%, Con 31%, UKIP 18%, Lab 11%, Grn 6%, Oth 2%
Sutton & Cheam: LD 45%, Con 27%, UKIP 14%, Lab 11%, Grn 3%, Oth *
Taunton Deane: Con 34%, LD 30%, UKIP 15%, Lab 14%, Grn 6%, Oth 1%
Torbay: Con 30%, LD 30%, UKIP 21%, Lab 15%, Grn 3%, Oth 1%
Wells: Con 35%, LD 28%, UKIP 16%, Lab 13%, Grn 7%, Oth *

Bermondsey & Old Southwark: LD 36%, Lab 35%, Con 14%, UKIP 9%, Grn 5%, Oth 2%
Cambridge: Lab 33%, LD 32%, Con 19%, Grn 8%, UKIP 7%, Oth 1%
Cardiff Central: Lab 36%, LD 24%, Con 17%, UKIP 9%, Pld 9%, Grn 5%, Oth *
Hornsey & Wood Green: Lab 43%, LD 30%, Con 14%, Grn 8%, UKIP 3%, Oth 1%
Redcar: Lab 44%, UKIP 23%, LD 18%, Con 12%, Grn 2%, Oth 1%

Whether the percentages will be accurate is not clear but with the LD/Con seats, the ones going LD are the ones I expected. Eastbourne is particularly outstanding for the LD's if that is accurate.

[iain]

Eastbourne is particularly striking:
Non-constituency specific:
Con: 31%, LD 24%

So going constituency specific, LD up 22%!

I am quite encourage by many of these, as reasonable Green votes in places like St Austell should be squeezable

[iain]

It would be interesting to see some Scottish constituency polling.
I'm a little disappointed Ashcroft didn't do Bristol West, Leeds North West or Birmingham Yardley

[thirdchill]

Might be best to do the scottish constituency polling in a couple of months time, when the effects and the emotions from the independence referendum have died down a bit.

Would be interesting to see scottish polling though, and with proper samples from each constituency, as opposed to 20-30 people from each one.

[Pete Whitehead]

Are these new polls? Some of them look very similar to a number we saw here several weeks ago. I remember for example Sutton & Cheam standing out as an excellent result for the LDs then. If this is a new poll and it confirms that then this is very good news for them there, but otherwise it is very old news

[thirdchill]

Sept 28, 2014 15:50:13 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Are these new polls? Some of them look very similar to a number we saw here several weeks ago. I remember for example Sutton & Cheam standing out as an excellent result for the LDs then. If this is a new poll and it confirms that then this is very good news for them there, but otherwise it is very old news

Yes these are new polls.

[Pete Whitehead]

Are there full figures anywhere for the Tory-Labour marginals?

[iain]

I posted them on page 6, though I didn't give a link to the tabs

[sdoerr]

Con 32%, Lab 32%, LDem 8%, UKIP 17%, Green 4%

lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/09/ashcroft-national-poll-con-32-lab-32-ldem-8-ukip-17-green-4/#more-6466

-- 
Steve

[sdoerr]

Con 32%, Lab 30%, Lib Dem 7%, UKIP 17%, Green 7%

lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/10/ashcroft-national-poll-con-32-lab-30-lib-dem-7-ukip-17-green-7/

[Richard Allen]

I wonder if one of the moderators could change the title of this thread to something that makes sense.

[Sibboleth]

Personally I like it this way, but then I can be very sentimental.

[Deleted]

[Sibboleth]

It would be nice if people didn't overanalyse poll internals wouldn't it.

[The Bishop]

Probably a rogue, in other words. As you might expect any poll putting Labour on (a frankly risible) 30% overall to be.