Ashcroft week poll

[The Bishop]

Again at least vaguely believable figures this week - Lab 33 Con 30 UKIP 18 LibDem 8 Green 6.

[The Bishop]

In case anybody has wondered, these polls are taking an August break.

[iain]

More constituency polls - lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/08/swing-labour-extends-deeper-tory-territory/

Bedford – L 38%, C 28%, UKIP 15%, LD 14%, Grn 3%, Oth 2%
Carlisle – Lab 41%, Con 30%, UKIP 18%, LD 5%, Grn 3%, Oth 3%
Dewsbury – Lab 40%, Con 30%, UKIP 18%, Grn 6%, LD 4%, Oth 3%
Lincoln – Lab 39%, Con 35%, UKIP 17%, LD 6%, Grn 3%, Oth 1%
Plymouth S&D – Lab 39%, Con 26%, UKIP 21%, Grn 8%, LD 6%, Oth 1%
Stroud – Lab 41%, Con 30%, UKIP 11%, Grn 11%, LD 6% Oth *
Warrington South – Lab 37%, Con 29%, UKIP 15%, LD 15%, Grn 3%, Oth *
Weaver Vale – Lab 41%, Con 32%, UKIP 18%, LD 6%, Grn 2%, Oth 1%
B’ham Edgbaston – Lab 48%, Con 29%, UKIP 12%, Grn 5%, LD 3%, Oth 1%
Bolton West – Lab 40%, Con 27%, UKIP 21%, LD 8%, Grn 2%, Oth 2%
Hampstead & Kilburn – Lab 47%, Con 30%, LD 13%, Grn 6%, UKIP 2%, Oth 1%
Southampton Itchen – Lab 33%, Con 33%, UKIP 19%, LD 10%, Grn 3%, Oth 1%

[thirdchill]

Some interesting polls. In general I would put the conservatives a few points higher in most of those and UKIP a few points lower, with the exception of Southampton Itchen.

Some of those figures for UKIP are on the high side. Can't see them getting 18% in Dewsbury or Weaver Vale, they don't seem very organised locally in either area. 17% in Lincoln is a possibility.

The labour and lib dem figures look mostly right, although the swing is perhaps a higher than expected in Hampstead. The Hampstead figure for UKIP is amusing but not surprising, hard to think of a seat less suited to UKIP.

[Sibboleth]

Constituency polling is generally awful, so I wouldn't over analyse...

[No Offence Alan]

Two crumbs of comfort for the Lib Dems.
I would have thought they would be squeezed well below deposit-holding levels in tight Con/Lab marginals but they haven't been.
In some of these seats the drop in the Tory vote is actually more than the drop in the LD vote.

[Robert Waller]

At present these polls will probably reflect current 'national' views rather than taking into account the actual pattern of contest in the specific constituencies.
For example, tactical voting and the personal incumbency vote will not be factored in. As these are mostly Conservative seats, that suggests an understatement of the C position if they are in any way to be used as predictions, never mind the months until the actual election, and any difference when people are actually choosing who they want to govern.
So really they say no more - and in some ways less - than recent national polls (which themselves do not predict May 2015).
This is my (sometimes bitter) experience of taking constituency polls!

[No Offence Alan]

Aug 20, 2014 22:58:22 GMT Robert Waller said:

At present these polls will probably reflect current 'national' views rather than taking into account the actual pattern of contest in the specific constituencies.
For example, tactical voting and the personal incumbency vote will not be factored in. As these are mostly Conservative seats, that suggests an understatement of the C position if they are in any way to be used as predictions, never mind the months until the actual election, and any difference when people are actually choosing who they want to govern.
So really they say no more - and in some ways less - than recent national polls (which themselves do not predict May 2015).
This is my (sometimes bitter) experience of taking constituency polls!

Actually Ashcroft asked two questions - the "standard" national one and then a "how would you vote, considering this particular constituency" question so that would take some account of tactical voting etc.

[Robert Waller]

I'm not sure that makes too much difference this far before the election, Alan.
When I took constituency polls for Harris before the 1987 election, they changed dramatically in the last couple of weeks when we could put on candidate names. The tactical squeeze from Labour to Liberal only kicked in at that stage too.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

This week's Ashcroft poll: Con 28%, Lab 35%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 18%, Green 6%

[Devonian]

Ashcroft poll due out at 4pm

[Devonian]

CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%

[carlton43]

Sept 15, 2014 16:24:17 GMT Devonian said:

CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%

This is quite different to ICM Baloo so I assume it was not produced by 'experts' but a bunch of amateur charlatans? Or could it be that all pollsters are useless charlatans? They are well paid to do something of absolutely no value to anyone and with no input to GDP like so many people these days.

[baloo]

Sept 15, 2014 18:20:17 GMT carlton43 said:

Sept 15, 2014 16:24:17 GMT Devonian said:

CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%

This is quite different to ICM Baloo so I assume it was not produced by 'experts' but a bunch of amateur charlatans? Or could it be that all pollsters are useless charlatans? They are well paid to do something of absolutely no value to anyone and with no input to GDP like so many people these days.

Actually it's not all that different to ICM, the Conservatives are on the same score, Labour are 2 points lower and the Lib Dems are 1 point lower. It's almost like a group of experts have looked at the same data and come to the same result... but you're calling people charlatans so you must be right. Spooky coincidence though.

Edit: I must say I'm flattered that you want to continue this discussion on this thread too.

[The Bishop]

The issue with Ashcroft's polls is their volatility.

This week shows a very different picture to the last (Tories up 5!) and next week's offering could well be very varied again.

[baloo]

Sept 15, 2014 21:23:31 GMT The Bishop said:

The issue with Ashcroft's polls is their volatility.

This week shows a very different picture to the last (Tories up 5!) and next week's offering could well be very varied again.

That is true, I think they are the weakest polls (with ICM obviously being the best).

[Deleted]

Why are Labour voters voting Labour

As usual you only look at the headline rates

other questions were asked

and it is interesting that

between 24% - 38% of Labour voters when asked,

Do not think Ed Miliband will be a good PM
They think Labour will borrow and spend too much
and they are not even sure if they are on their side

Why do they vote Labour?

[greenchristian]

Sept 15, 2014 21:57:51 GMT justlooking said:

Why are Labour voters voting Labour

As usual you only look at the headline rates

other questions were asked

and it is interesting that

between 24% - 38% of Labour voters when asked,

Do not think Ed Miliband will be a good PM
They think Labour will borrow and spend too much
and they are not even sure if they are on their side

Why do they vote Labour?

1) because they've always voted Labour
2) to keep the Tories out

[Deleted]

Sept 15, 2014 22:36:00 GMT greenchristian said:

Sept 15, 2014 21:57:51 GMT justlooking said:

Why are Labour voters voting Labour

As usual you only look at the headline rates

other questions were asked

and it is interesting that

between 24% - 38% of Labour voters when asked,

Do not think Ed Miliband will be a good PM
They think Labour will borrow and spend too much
and they are not even sure if they are on their side

Why do they vote Labour?

1) because they've always voted Labour
2) to keep the Tories out

I used to think that was just a tory myth "My dad voted labour, his dad voted labour blah blah blah" but have heard it a few times now - once from someone who is really intelligent enough to know better.

[greenchristian]

Sept 15, 2014 22:38:47 GMT joe said:

Sept 15, 2014 22:36:00 GMT greenchristian said:

1) because they've always voted Labour
2) to keep the Tories out

I used to think that was just a tory myth "My dad voted labour, his dad voted labour blah blah blah" but have heard it a few times now - once from someone who is really intelligent enough to know better.

In Coventry, it's quite common to come across this on the doorstep. I've had plenty of conversations where the voter clearly realises that it's illogical, but still intends to vote Labour out of habit.