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Post by Devonian on May 4, 2014 19:11:03 GMT
Thoughts on the possibility of Helmer as candidate. On the minus side he is not from Nottinghamshire, he is not in the first flush of youth and he has made a few 'gaffes' in his time which will, no doubt, all be brought up if he runs.
On he plus side he does live in the East Midlands and has represented Newark and the rest of the East Midlands for the last 15 years. He's also an experienced politician, an experienced campaigner and an experienced parliamentarian. I think the last point is quite import. Not only does it enable to present himself to the electorate as a competent and conscientious parliamentarian (he never tires of mentioning his high attendance rate in the European Parliament when he is in the media) but also there is a possibility that the UKIP candidate might actually be elected in Newark, although the odds are against it.
One of the worst things that could happen to UKIP is if they got an MP elected and he wasn't any good. Any new UKIP MP would have to deal with great deal of media attention, with working as a parliamentarian and with representing the people of Newark and be able to 'hit the ground' running with all three. Having 15 years experience of doing all three is bound to help. Being an ex-Tory defector might also make him the ideal person to appeal to would be tory defectors.
So several plusses but not unimportant minuses as well. I guess we'll find out on Tuesday. |
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2014 12:16:30 GMT
The timing of this byelection probably restricts candidature to the big 3, UKIP, and the Greens at a pinch. Can't be that many spare deposits hanging around.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 6, 2014 15:07:41 GMT
UKIP confirm Roger Helmer as their candidate.
Deadline for nomination is a week today at 4 PM.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on May 6, 2014 15:29:35 GMT
The timing of this byelection probably restricts candidature to the big 3, UKIP, and the Greens at a pinch. Can't be that many spare deposits hanging around. I would be very pleasantly surprised to see a Green candidate here, but rather suspect it won't happen. Even apart from the timing, we've not had a candidate in the seat since 1992 and only 1 council candidate for more than a decade. Doesn't speak to a very strong local organisation. |
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2014 15:47:33 GMT
UKIP confirm Roger Helmer as their candidate. Deadline for nomination is a week today at 4 PM. Interesting choice. Considering his views I can see how we will appeal to some (& make an educated guess as to the composition of the selection meeting), but not sure if he can break out of the Daily Express enclave. Tory hold. |
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2014 15:47:45 GMT
Lord Biro, aka David Bishop, for the cause of Elvis and his bus pass...
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Post by swindonlad on May 6, 2014 16:09:38 GMT
UKIP confirm Roger Helmer as their candidate. Deadline for nomination is a week today at 4 PM. On this news Ladbrokes lengthened the odds on a UKIP victory |
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Post by vertex on May 6, 2014 16:17:48 GMT
I wonder will any of the other parties go for the jugular on Helmer's views on rape. A difficult doorstep conversation to have. I suspect it'll be a Tory hold. It's not on the Labour target seat list so I reckon they wont have put much work into the seat.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 6, 2014 16:30:42 GMT
If you're going to pick Helmer, you might as well go the whole hog and pick Farage. Still, it's a better bet than that Canadian Reform gambit Farage was plugging last week - eastern Nottinghamshire and rural Alberta are very different places.
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Post by Merseymike on May 6, 2014 17:22:02 GMT
Pretty obvious they will target fed up Tories. In a seat without a large LD tradition and a solid but minority Labour vote centred in two or three wards that makes sense
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 6, 2014 17:43:23 GMT
UKIP confirm Roger Helmer as their candidate. Deadline for nomination is a week today at 4 PM. Interesting choice. Considering his views I can see how we will appeal to some (& make an educated guess as to the composition of the selection meeting), but not sure if he can break out of the Daily Express enclave. Tory hold. It is an area where UKIP's organisation is limited at best and so there probably wasn't a strong local candidate. Helmer has huge name recognition and is an able communicator so there was never much doubt that the local party wouldn't pick him if he put his name forward. |
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Post by Andrew_S on May 6, 2014 18:59:19 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on May 6, 2014 19:10:06 GMT
Election-Data's take on the Newark by-election: "Newark has relatively large proportions of households which lean to the Conservatives but are also attracted by UKIP. Rural communities, older residents, retirees, empty nesters, self-employed trades people living in smaller communities, well-off older residents, commuters living in semi-rural settings; they all make up larger proportions of the constituency than elsewhere in the UK. They don't vote Labour, or at least they haven't since 1997. Most have voted Conservative, some have voted LibDem and a smaller but growing proportion have voted UKIP.
On the other hand there are large proportions of blue collar households, which have typically voted Labour but more recently have shown a tendency to get behind UKIP."election-data.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/the-constituency-of-newark.html |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on May 6, 2014 20:10:45 GMT
Selecting someoe blaming rape victims and which is homophobe and an anti-Catholic bigot is terrible and I expect parties to attack them on that, causing damage to UKIP European election campaign.
Very dumb choice from UKIP. They'll damage their European campaign because of a by-election they can't win.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on May 6, 2014 21:39:13 GMT
No one gives a toss about anti Catholic bigotry.
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Post by carlton43 on May 6, 2014 21:44:41 GMT
I think that is distinctly worth a punt on those odds. |
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2014 21:46:18 GMT
But they should give a damn about a candidate who has shown indications of sexism, misogyny, homophobia, heteronormalitivity, xenophobia, and plain old ignorance. Far from moving UKIP away from the bar, this choice has them trying to suck mild straight from the taps.
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Post by carlton43 on May 6, 2014 21:50:19 GMT
But they should give a damn about a candidate who has shown indications of sexism, misogyny, homophobia, heteronormalitivity, xenophobia, and plain old ignorance. Far from moving UKIP away from the bar, this choice has them trying to suck mild straight from the taps. And you think this plays badly to our demographic? |
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2014 21:56:24 GMT
But they should give a damn about a candidate who has shown indications of sexism, misogyny, homophobia, heteronormalitivity, xenophobia, and plain old ignorance. Far from moving UKIP away from the bar, this choice has them trying to suck mild straight from the taps. And you think this plays badly to our demographic? No, it certainly validates all campaigning against you though. |
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Post by carlton43 on May 6, 2014 22:05:08 GMT
And you think this plays badly to our demographic? No, it certainly validates all campaigning against you though. Dok, please don't think I endorse all those attributes nor that I was being flip in my response. My point, as made before, is to avoid the obvious and incorrect assumptions that large sectors of the electorate see, should see or do see candidates, policies and social views from the same aspect. They don't and they never have. What i am against is the rather prissy attitude that any failure to see everything through the same social-liberal tinted glasses makes one a species of the unclean, the un-godly and possibly even the undead. |
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