baloo
Conservative
Posts: 760
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Post by baloo on Jun 5, 2014 22:37:59 GMT
The Tory spin doctors have been successful in getting many a journo to repeat this line - 'If Ukip can't win here a week after topping a national poll, then when will they win?' to which the response would be "somewhere more favourable at some other time". ** ** possibly during a general election when no party can send all its people to one place at the same time. I think that's a fair point but it's also likely that at a GE Tory voters are going to be more likely to vote and so reduce UKIPs turnout advantage. In my opinion this is the most important by election for decades. If UKIP win they can say that the argument that they can't win at the parliamentary level is blown out of the water, whereas a Conservative win would be a real boost given our record while in government. It will be interesting to see whether Labour are damaged by finishing third (if they do of course). While you wouldn't necessarily expect them to win, a distant third would be a poor result given the context. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 5, 2014 22:41:57 GMT
From James Lansdale; "Labour source says the Tories threw "the k------ sink, the butler's sink, the crockery, and even the Aga" at the #newarkbyelection" If you're going to play the class war card - and it's a card to play if all else is lost - you have to play it before the polls close. There's wisdom there. Can I have Axelrod's job? If you're going to play the class war card, Newark is a bloody silly place to play it. But of course that's not what this is - it's just a rather forced attempt at humour. As for the BBC's election coverage, there is a distinction between acknowledging that Labour's election performance was deeply unimpressive and trying to spin it as an unmitigated disaster. The UKIP surge in normally safe Labour areas was a definite story, but it's worth remembering that at the same time we were losing a comparably small number of seats there, we were making gains in quite a number of marginal wards, including a few we missed in both 2011 and 2012. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Jun 5, 2014 22:43:39 GMT
If there's a 58% turnout and if the C are 15% ahead of UKIP as the last two polls suggested, then the C majority would be over 6,000.
I wonder how that would be spun by the various parties ...
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Post by independentukip on Jun 5, 2014 22:46:21 GMT
From the Newark Advertiser; Returning officer Andrew Muter says he believes turn-out could be close to 58 per cent... The Newark District turnout for the Euros was 36% so if it is correct, as many believe, the Euro vote represented the UKIP peak the massively larger turnout today (around 61% higher if 58% is accurate) would indicate there will be a poor result for UKIP here. Poor in terms of the expectations which have recently surrounded the party that is. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 5, 2014 22:48:41 GMT
If Ukip were even within a sniff Farage wouldn't have been getting tanked up in Malta.
They will finish a distant second.
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Post by psephos on Jun 5, 2014 22:50:08 GMT
If there's a 5% turnout and if the C are 15% ahead of UKIP as the last two polls suggested, then the C majority would be over 6,000. I wonder how that would be spun by the various parties ... there's a 5% turnout, I will perform fellatio on anyone who wants it in the nave of Southwell cathedral, with 'jolly' Roger Helmer to officiate and to compare his revulsion to the revulsion he has drinking Earl Grey tea. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 5, 2014 22:53:31 GMT
UKIP have gone from 100/1 to 15/1 with Betfair in the last few seconds, LOL
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 5, 2014 22:54:13 GMT
The Conservatives haven't successfully retained a seat in a by-election to the House of Commons whilst in government since William Hague won Richmond in 1989. Under the circumstances it should be a significant psychological boost if we do win, now matter how large or small the majority. "...it should be a significant psychological boost if we do win..." is a telling remark from a Conservative about a safe seat where they defend 16000 majority only a year out from a GE?!! |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 5, 2014 22:57:31 GMT
Rather him than Nick Robinson - whose coverage of the elections last month ranks amongst the most disgraceful episodes in the BBC's history  I fondly remember the days when they had people who were actually capable of presenting election programs. Can they not at least force Peter Snow out of retirement? You cannot be serious!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,844 
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Post by Crimson King on Jun 5, 2014 22:58:36 GMT
A butler sink, but not a belfast sink? So I'm not the only one who listens to The Archers |
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Post by psephos on Jun 5, 2014 23:04:58 GMT
The Conservatives haven't successfully retained a seat in a by-election to the House of Commons whilst in government since William Hague won Richmond in 1989. Under the circumstances it should be a significant psychological boost if we do win, now matter how large or small the majority. "...it should be a significant psychological boost if we do win..." is a telling remark from a Conservative about a safe seat where they defend 16000 majority only a year out from a GE?!! The amateur UKIP may not like how politics works; but that's how politics works. We've all been primed for a UKIP upset, mainly by Tory HQ but also by UKIP hanging round in Newark town centre looking weird. Here's one UKIP activist.  If this flurry of Kipper madness doesn't come off (but how could it not! Who could fail to be convinced by John Bull himself!), it'll be let's all laugh at UKIP and their hubris. The stocks were sold
The Press was squared
The Middle Class
Was quite preparedWelcome to the real world. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Jun 5, 2014 23:06:27 GMT
If there's a 5% turnout and if the C are 15% ahead of UKIP as the last two polls suggested, then the C majority would be over 6,000. I wonder how that would be spun by the various parties ... there's a 5% turnout, I will perform fellatio on anyone who wants it in the nave of Southwell cathedral, with 'jolly' Roger Helmer to officiate and to compare his revulsion to the revulsion he has drinking Earl Grey tea. Sorry 58% - the 8 key on my laptop is sticky. Let's try to free it: 8888888888888888 ...  |
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Post by Philip Davies on Jun 5, 2014 23:17:03 GMT
I fondly remember the days when they had people who were actually capable of presenting election programs. Can they not at least force Peter Snow out of retirement? You cannot be serious!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! John McEnroe might actually do a better job. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 5, 2014 23:19:56 GMT
"...it should be a significant psychological boost if we do win..." is a telling remark from a Conservative about a safe seat where they defend 16000 majority only a year out from a GE?!! The amateur UKIP may not like how politics works; but that's how politics works. We've all been primed for a UKIP upset, mainly by Tory HQ but also by UKIP hanging round in Newark town centre looking weird. Here's one UKIP activist. If this flurry of Kipper madness doesn't come off (but how could it not! Who could fail to be convinced by John Bull himself!), it'll be let's all laugh at UKIP and their hubris. The stocks were sold
The Press was squared
The Middle Class
Was quite preparedWelcome to the real world. Ah!!!!!!!! The Real World and my welcome to it. Yes, why should I do so having spent a lifetime trying to avoid it in the hope of something far better............and succeeding! On Monday I depart for a languid two week trip to Italy where I shall avoid all contact with reality until October lures me home to the unreality of a Highland wood-burning stove. It is on now as it happens. Been a dull wet day here. |
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Post by psephos on Jun 5, 2014 23:25:46 GMT
The amateur UKIP may not like how politics works; but that's how politics works. We've all been primed for a UKIP upset, mainly by Tory HQ but also by UKIP hanging round in Newark town centre looking weird. Here's one UKIP activist. If this flurry of Kipper madness doesn't come off (but how could it not! Who could fail to be convinced by John Bull himself!), it'll be let's all laugh at UKIP and their hubris. The stocks were sold
The Press was squared
The Middle Class
Was quite preparedWelcome to the real world. Ah!!!!!!!! The Real World and my welcome to it. Yes, why should I do so having spent a lifetime trying to avoid it in the hope of something far better............and succeeding! On Monday I depart for a languid two week trip to Italy where I shall avoid all contact with reality until October lures me home to the unreality of a Highland wood-burning stove. It is on now as it happens. Been a dull wet day here. Whether you like it or not, your people've ramped it, and if the Tory holds Helmer off by 2000, it'l be painted as a triumph. Cry as you might 'The Tories won by 16000 in 2010!' i'l matter naught. The UKIP surge will be deemed to be nothing. That's politics; sneer all you like and proclaim yourself a more moral being because you're lounging on a beach unlike us rotten hacks in Newark. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 5, 2014 23:34:38 GMT
Psephos! What is all this? I won't be crying. I shall be basking in the shade. It won't be a Conservative triumph however spun. The UKIP surge will not be deemed to be 'nothing'. I am not sneering. I don't lounge and I am dismayed you should think me a 'beach' person. I am an 'under awning of select bar' person. But yes, you do sound like a rotten hack.
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Post by Devonian on Jun 5, 2014 23:35:54 GMT
Ah!!!!!!!! The Real World and my welcome to it. Yes, why should I do so having spent a lifetime trying to avoid it in the hope of something far better............and succeeding! On Monday I depart for a languid two week trip to Italy where I shall avoid all contact with reality until October lures me home to the unreality of a Highland wood-burning stove. It is on now as it happens. Been a dull wet day here. Whether you like it or not, your people've ramped it, and if the Tory holds Helmer off by 2000, it'l be painted as a triumph. Cry as you might 'The Tories won by 16000 in 2010!' i'l matter naught. The UKIP surge will be deemed to be nothing. That's politics; sneer all you like and proclaim yourself a more moral being because you're lounging on a beach unlike us rotten hacks in Newark. What are you talking about? UKIP have come second in every by election for the last year and a half, they just won the European election. There is now an expectation for them to do well in every by election and all I've heard UKIP say is "Its an uphill task but we'll give it a go". I also haven't heard a single media outlet predict a UKIP win so if the Tories win, which they look like they're going to it wouldn't much surprise anyone. The important thing for UKIP would be not to come third, that will be the worst result for them. |
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 5, 2014 23:36:20 GMT
"...it should be a significant psychological boost if we do win..." is a telling remark from a Conservative about a safe seat where they defend 16000 majority only a year out from a GE?!! The amateur UKIP may not like how politics works; but that's how politics works. We've all been primed for a UKIP upset, mainly by Tory HQ but also by UKIP hanging round in Newark town centre looking weird. Here's one UKIP activist. The sad truth about UKIP is that they simply don't get it. Topping the poll in the Euro elections is nice but electing 24 UKIP MEPs is ultimately meaningless. This is an election that really counts and the Conservative Party have thrown ever resource available to them in to the battle. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 5, 2014 23:49:50 GMT
Turnout official 52.79%
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 5, 2014 23:52:01 GMT
The amateur UKIP may not like how politics works; but that's how politics works. We've all been primed for a UKIP upset, mainly by Tory HQ but also by UKIP hanging round in Newark town centre looking weird. Here's one UKIP activist. The sad truth about UKIP is that they simply don't get it. Topping the poll in the Euro elections is nice but electing 24 UKIP MEPs is ultimately meaningless. This is an election that really counts and the Conservative Party have thrown ever resource available to them in to the battle. But how telling Richard that they need to do so in a very safe seat where UKIP were nowhere in 2010 and where they have little or no history or on site ground activism. No other party in the last few decades could do this to all three parties of government. |
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