Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,916
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Post by Tony Otim on May 16, 2019 21:35:29 GMT
Has Chuka said he's going to stand for Mayor or are they just trolling ? They're just trolling... Quite a difference between the two sets of figures above... If they're from the same poll can't help thinking somebody's reversed the Greens and LDs on one of them... |
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Post by AdminSTB on May 16, 2019 21:45:51 GMT
Barring a 1968 style meltdown or a situation a la Livingstone in 2000, it seems difficult to envisage Labour losing any future mayoral election in London.
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Post by No Offence Alan on May 17, 2019 6:16:09 GMT
Barring a 1968 style meltdown or a situation a la Livingstone in 2000, it seems difficult to envisage Labour losing any future mayoral election in London. Until there is a Labour government. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on May 17, 2019 10:08:40 GMT
Barring a 1968 style meltdown or a situation a la Livingstone in 2000, it seems difficult to envisage Labour losing any future mayoral election in London. Until there is a Labour government. I think the point is, even then it is a stretch. And they didn't lose it last time (if you discount 2000 as sui generis) until they had been in power for almost a decade. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,916
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Post by Tony Otim on May 17, 2019 10:21:56 GMT
No wonder Sian Berry was acting all rattled the other day, running fifth behind not only us but CHUK 😊 Hmmm - there doesn't seem to have been a separate London poll and the actual figures from the Yougov QMUL survey including Chuka are: Lab 39 Con 24 Grn 14 Change 11 LD 7 Oth 5 So I'm not sure where these figures cone from, but they look fishy and it looks like it's actually Siobhan Benita who's coming behind Change. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 17, 2019 10:23:11 GMT
Until there is a Labour government. I think the point is, even then it is a stretch. And they didn't lose it last time (if you discount 2000 as sui generis) until they had been in power for almost a decade. Had anyone other than B. Johnson been the Conservative candidate, it's likely Ken Livingstone would have been re-elected in 2008. He was well ahead in the early polls even when Labour was doing badly nationally. |
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 7, 2019 12:17:45 GMT
I am just boosting this so people can put London polls and Mayoral polls in it...
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Aug 11, 2020 16:31:39 GMT
Go TBC! 🔶
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,916
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 11, 2020 20:44:13 GMT
I'm not convinced the Lib Dems and Greens will poll anywhere near 21% between them. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 11, 2020 21:53:42 GMT
I'm not convinced the Lib Dems and Greens will poll anywhere near 21% between them. I can just about imagine that. What's harder to believe is their second round poll claims it will be 61-39, so a majority of Lib Dem votes (and presumably quite a few Greens too) would second preference Bailey over Khan. |
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Post by greenchristian on Aug 11, 2020 22:21:19 GMT
I'm not convinced the Lib Dems and Greens will poll anywhere near 21% between them. I can just about imagine that. What's harder to believe is their second round poll claims it will be 61-39, so a majority of Lib Dem votes (and presumably quite a few Greens too) would second preference Bailey over Khan. How does Khan drop 10 points on the second ballot? |
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 11, 2020 22:24:18 GMT
I can just about imagine that. What's harder to believe is their second round poll claims it will be 61-39, so a majority of Lib Dem votes (and presumably quite a few Greens too) would second preference Bailey over Khan. How does Khan drop 10 points on the second ballot? Khan on 61, Bailey 39. Should have made that clear!  However, that implies of the 25% who don't vote for Khan or Bailey, they will narrowly go for Bailey on the second round. Obviously some won't go either way, but it is a surprising result. |
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Post by greenchristian on Aug 11, 2020 22:32:20 GMT
How does Khan drop 10 points on the second ballot? Khan on 61, Bailey 39. Should have made that clear! However, that implies of the 25% who don't vote for Khan or Bailey, they will narrowly go for Bailey on the second round. Obviously some won't go either way, but it is a surprising result. Oops. My mistake. (why isn't there a blushing smiley?) |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2020 22:51:49 GMT
How does Khan drop 10 points on the second ballot? Khan on 61, Bailey 39. Should have made that clear! However, that implies of the 25% who don't vote for Khan or Bailey, they will narrowly go for Bailey on the second round. Obviously some won't go either way, but it is a surprising result. We'll have to wait for more polls on this, but perhaps one plausible explanation is that Khan is polling extremely well amongst those who might consider voting for a Labour candidate, whilst the Liberal Democrats are currently polling better amongst those who have traditionally voted Conservative? |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 12, 2020 11:08:32 GMT
Khan on 61, Bailey 39. Should have made that clear! However, that implies of the 25% who don't vote for Khan or Bailey, they will narrowly go for Bailey on the second round. Obviously some won't go either way, but it is a surprising result. We'll have to wait for more polls on this, but perhaps one plausible explanation is that Khan is polling extremely well amongst those who might consider voting for a Labour candidate, whilst the Liberal Democrats are currently polling better amongst those who have traditionally voted Conservative? Yes, if - as appears likely - much of the LibDem increase has come from Stewart's previous support that is quite possible. |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Sept 12, 2020 18:13:52 GMT
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,065 
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Post by jamie on Sept 13, 2020 10:31:39 GMT
‘Leaked’ Conservative internal has them down only 7% according to the Sunday Telegraph. I say ‘leaked’, because it’s so out of kilter with all other public polling and the entire article just regurgitates Tory talking points so I’m rather sceptical that such a poll actually exists (or at the very least didn’t massively prime respondents etc).
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,724
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Post by Jack on Nov 24, 2020 19:12:11 GMT
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Nov 24, 2020 19:58:38 GMT
That says to me that Rory Stewart was taking votes from moderate Conservatives who now have no option but to vote Conservative or abstain. |
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Post by owainsutton on Nov 24, 2020 20:04:51 GMT
That says to me that Rory Stewart was taking votes from moderate Conservatives who now have no option but to vote Conservative or abstain. It also knocks on the head the idea that he was going to demolish either the 'natural Lib Dem' or 'Remain' vote, as if either of them are a large bloc. |
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