Local Elections in France.

[andrea]

Mar 15, 2020 19:11:44 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Liveblog from Le Figaro.
www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2020/03/15/01002-20200315LIVWWW00003-municipales-2020-coronavirus-resultats-abstention-participation.php

Estimations from Lille: Aubry 30% Green 23.5% LREM 18.1%

FN to easily hold Hénin-Beaumont

Besançon: Greens into the lead: 31 to 24% for LR

Alliot ahead in Perpignan (33-36%) to 18% for LR incumbent

Édouard Philippe 43% in Le Havre against 35% for the Communist candidate.

46% for Bayrou in Pau. Second round against PS/PC at 23%

[andrea]

Stéphane Le Foll (PS) leading in Le Mans with 42%, 30 points lead over the second placed candidate

Bordeaux: Greens 35,9 % vs 33.4% for the LR candidate

Natacha Bouchart (LR) reelected in Calais

Grenoble 40% for Éric Piolle to 20% for Alain Carignon

Greens ahead in Strasbourg but with 26,7%. Fontanel is at 20.6%

30% for Hidalgo and 22% for Dati in Paris. Buzyn at 17%

Lyon: Greens 29% LR 16.7 LREM 14%

Tolouse: LR 35% Greens 28% PS 18%

[andrea]

PS 11 points ahead of PCF in Saint Denis

[Devil Wincarnate]

In the Gironde, France's oldest mayor has been re-elected.

He is 97.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Le Figaro reports that there are doubts over the second round, because the government expect the Wu Flu to get out of hand badly.

[Khunanup]

Mar 15, 2020 23:43:02 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Le Figaro reports that there are doubts over the second round, because the government expect the Wu Flu to get out of hand badly.

I was talking to our head of democratic services on Friday after our elections had been postponed. He was incredulous that French locals were going ahead this weekend, he was horrified that there's supposed to be a second round in a few week's time...

[carlton43]

Mar 15, 2020 23:43:02 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Le Figaro reports that there are doubts over the second round, because the government expect the Wu Flu to get out of hand badly.

As opposed to it 'getting out of hand well' one supposes?

[Devil Wincarnate]

Mar 16, 2020 0:01:03 GMT carlton43 said:

Mar 15, 2020 23:43:02 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Le Figaro reports that there are doubts over the second round, because the government expect the Wu Flu to get out of hand badly.

As opposed to it 'getting out of hand well' one supposes?

Getting out of hand isn't always negative. Vic Reeves once claimed that the Dutch language was a joke that got out of hand...

[relique]

Mar 15, 2020 23:51:01 GMT Khunanup said:

Mar 15, 2020 23:43:02 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Le Figaro reports that there are doubts over the second round, because the government expect the Wu Flu to get out of hand badly.

I was talking to our head of democratic services on Friday after our elections had been postponed. He was incredulous that French locals were going ahead this weekend, he was horrified that there's supposed to be a second round in a few week's time...

In one week time only.

There are huge constitutional issues here that cannot be dealt with easily.

A lot of cities finished their election last night with a list getting more than 50% +1 vote. But for the others, a second round must always be organised 1 week after. So if you don't hold the second round... you probably must cancel the first one, and start again. In this case, a lot of the losers last night might contest into courts and have all last night elections canceled. Which would prove quite a disaster because: we may have spread the virus BUT we would still have to do it all over again...

So there are calls to "sanctuariser" (to validate) last night elections on the first round and, for the remainder of the cities, maybe to postpone until autumn ? Senate elections are due to be held ni september-october and they must be held AFTER the local elections (they could be delayed for a couple of months maybe).

I'll give you later the results for every city I've given you some analysis on in the following hours/days.

For now, I'm a bit disappointed by Dunkerque where a lot of good friends stood. I'm marvelously happy for the left gain in Faches-Thumesnil (Nord), where other friends stood, and the left gain of La Trinité in Alpes Maritimes where a comrade stood and won.

[relique]

Mar 1, 2020 18:24:25 GMT relique said:

First category today:

Cities with LREM (or close) incumbents who are candidates:

- Le Havre (in Seine Maritime, 76): Edouard Philippe (former LR), the prime minister, became the mayor in 2010 when the right-wing Antoine Rufenacht resigned 2 years after his reelection (that's a common practice in France to ensure your successor has time to make himself known to the people before facing an election; no by-election is necessary if the municipal council is complete). He was elected in 2014 quite comfortably in the first round (52% against PS at 16, PCF at 16, FN at 13 and LO (trotskyst) at 1).

He gave away his position when he became prime minister to Luc Lemonnier (resigned because he allegedly sent nude photos of him to women who say it was without their consent) and then Jean-Baptiste Gastinne.

The right-wing LR didn't put a candidate against him. There's a big social mobilization in this former communist city, and the communist MP Jean-Paul Lecocq is a candidate and might be able to beat the PM. The far-right RN might call its voters to beat the PM in the second run. PS and Greens (EELV) are supporting another candidate, Alexis Deck, from the Green Party.  No polls yet.

- Lyon (in Rhône, 69): Gérard Collomb (former PS), the former minister of the interior. He is not candidate to the mayorship but to the metropolitan area. Against him is the current president of the metropolitan area who refused to resign when Collomb came back from his position of minister and wanted to take back both the mayorship and the presidency of the metropolitan area. David Kimelfeld, the pdt of the metro area, is candidate against Collomb.

For the mayorship, LREM faces a dissident candidate, Georges Képénékian who held the mayorship during the time Collomb was in government and resigned to give it back to him. He was not chosen by Collomb to be his candidate (Collomb chose Yann Cuchérat instead) and so he is an independent candidate.

To the right, there is almost unity around Etienne Blanc, a former MP in the Ain (01) département, in the same Rhône-Alpes region. Only the mayor of the 2nd arrondissement was opposed to this candidacy and is an independent right-wing candidate (as for Paris, the Lyon mayorship is based on arrondissements, of which there are 9).

To the left, big division between on the one side the PS and PCF united around PS Sandrine Runel, then the Greens (EELV) Grégory Doucet and the mayor of the 1er arrondissement Nathalie Perrin Gilbert which has her own local movement (GRAM) and is allied with Mélenchon's Insoumis.

There were several polls with EELV's Doucet and LR's Etienne Blanc ahead with 20-22%, followed by LREM's Cucherat at 15, independent Képénékian at 11, then the two left-wing lists PS-PCF and N Perrin Gilbert and the far-right and the centrist mayor of the 2nd arrondissement at around 6-9.

The left might retake the city with the greens but there's nothing sure and the right might take back this very bourgeois city.

- Nancy (Meurthe-et-Moselle, 54): Laurent Hénard from "Mouvement Radical" (very close to En Marche and allied this year) faces a tough challenge by the PS president of the Département Mathieu Klein. In 2014, he won against the same candidate 53/47 (at that time the Mouvement Radical was incorporated inside UMP). The Greens have a candidate, Laurent Watrin, and the insoumis also with Nordine Jouira. LR officially support Hénard but a few party affiliates have criticized this choice since the mayor is so close to the government. There is a dissident right wing list headed by Patricia Melet. The far-right RN has also its list.

There was a recent poll where Hénard and Klein were at 34% each, with the greens at 12 and all other lists at 6 or less. With a PS-EELV alliance, the city might be gained by the left.

- Orléans (Loiret, 45): the right wing mayor Serge Grouard resigned in 2015 because of health reasons. His successor Olivier Carré left LR and became quite close to LREM. Grouard, feeling better, is the candidate for LR while Carré is supported by LREM. The left are divided between EELV's Jean-Philippe Grand and PS-PCF's Dominique Tripet. The Insoumis list was invalidated because of lack of signatures (and a candidate still worked at the municipal administration, so she couldn't be a candidate). The left don't stand a chance here.

There was a recent poll where Grouard was at 29-32, Carré at 23-24, EELV's Grand at 21-22, PS's Tripet at 7 and insoumis and RN at 6. The city will probably go back to the right. 

- Angers (Maine-et-Loire, 49): the right wing mayor Christophe Béchu left LR and is very close to the government. LR didn't field any candidate against him. The left is divided between PS's Silvia Camara-Tombini, EELV's Yves Aurégan (also supported by PCF, and somme left-wing supporters of LREM; they initially wanted to have LREM's (former Green and close to Nicolas Hulot) MP Lorphelin as a candidate but he refused) and Insoumis's Claire Schweitzer. There is also a list by the far-right. The mayor Béchu has courted a former EELV senator, Corinne Bouchoux who is now on his list. The left being divided, it's difficult to imagine it taking back this city which was socialist from 1977 to 2014 ! There is no poll at this time.

One good result for allies to the government here, Angers: Béchu is reelected with 58%, getting 49 council seats and 35 inter-city council seats. PS is at 17% (5 and 4), Greens at 14 (4 and 3) while the Insoumis are at 5% with 1 elected councillor who will also be seated in the inter-city council.

2 tight results:

- the PM in Le Havre gets 44%, 8 points less than 2014, PCF MP gets 36% (+20), EELV-PS 8% (-8 compared to PS), RN at 7% (-6). I think the PCF can create an upset here, the PM having no chance of an endorsement by a defeated candidate.

- In Nancy, the mayor is at 35%, behind the PS candidate Klein at 38% with the greens at 10% with both Insoumis and RN at 4%. A merger with the greens would probably guarantee Klein to take the city for the left.

2 very bad results:

- Grouard, the right-wing former mayor of Orléans succeeds in his comeback with 36%, very far from the current LREM-backed mayor Carré at only 24%. The greens are at 19% and PS at 13% might merge and have a decent showing in a second run.

- In the second most populous city, where the mayor if the former minister for the interior Gérard Collomb, Lyon, LREM seems very very far off with Cucherat at 15%. They are 2nd in 4 of the 9 sectors, with Cucherat himself at 20% in the 5th sector, behind Greens at 23%, and Collomb himself in the 9th sector at 22% far from Greens at 30%. The Greens are the big winners here with 28% overall and ahead in 8 out of 9 sectors (the 6th is headed by LR list). The right LR are doing well in the 6th, in the 2nd (very close to Greens). Broliquier, the incumbent centrist is candidate here and dit 18%, third. With an alliance with Insoumis Perrin Gilbert (2nd in the 1st sector where she is an incumbent, at 27% against 32% for the greens; she could also maintain her lists in the 4th and the 7th) who is at 10% overall and/or PS Runel (only able to qualify in her own 8th sector) at 7% overall, the Greens should win the city. Képénekian is at 12% overall, at 12% as well in his 3rd sector, with Palomino 2nd at 19% in the 4th sector. A very large alliance between LR, LREM and all centrists lists might still win 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th sectors and maybe in with a shot at the 8th or 9th sectors.

[relique]

Mar 1, 2020 22:28:12 GMT relique said:

New category:

Cities where the incumbent is not candidate:

They are probably the most open fields and transmission will be quite difficult for the incumbents !

- Marseille (Bouches-du-Rhône, 13): the right-wing LR mayor Jean-Claude Gaudin has announced quite long ago he would not contest the election. There was a dogfight between his fellow-party members. The president of the Bouches-du-Rhône département Martine Vassal was designated but Bruno Gilles, senator and head of the LR Bouches-du-Rhône federation maintained his candidacy (and left the party). There was turmoil on the left side with a unifying initiative "Printemps marseillais" achieved unity between PS, PCF, insoumis and a lot of small left-wing parties. The Greens didn't want to join (they hoped their european scores would give them first place every where) but were divided. Printemps Marseillais have designated Michèle Rubirola, a green département council member as their candidate ! Samia Ghali, the only sector-mayor the PS kept in 2014 is also candidate with her own lists. Like Lyon and Paris, Marseille is divided in arrondissement, but for the mayorship elections, 16 arrondissements are united in 8 sectors. While polls were quite positive for the PS in 2014 (they thought it would be the big city that would go against the national trend, like Paris in 2001), they only won one sector, losing 1 to the FN (the other 'northern working-class sector') and 3 to the right. (In 2008, there were 51 councillors for the right, 49 for the left and already 1 for the FN; in 2014 the right got 61 councillors, the FN 20 and the left 20)

LREM have designated Yvon Berland, president of Aix-Marseille 2 university. There was a poll in january. Vassal got 23, Gilles 7 and the FN senator (and former mayor of sector) 22. Rubirola got 16, the greens 14, LREM 8 and Ghali 7 (with a probably good score in her own sector and very low in the others). The right seems still in a good enough position but not that good. Gaudin got 37% last time (FN 23, left 20+7+5). If the Ghali vote is concentrated in the north, alliances on the left might give them back 4 sectors. And the result might be tight. There is speculation that the FN will lose their sector this time (it was 35/32/32 last time and the common idea is that the right will be down in the second run whatever happens).

- Besançon (Doubs, 25): the mayor, Jean-Louis Fousseret was elected as a PS but became quite close to the government and is today considered to be En Marche. En Marche gave their support to Eric Alauzet, former Green MP who was reelected without an En Marche candidate against him (and with a label "presidential majority") and joined the LREM group. On the left, the greens' Anne Vignot is supported by the PS and the PCF. There is an Insoumis Claire Arnoux. The right-wing LR has fielded Ludovic Fagaut and there's also a list by RN.

There was a poll in january with Vignot at 34, Alauzet at 23, Fagaut 15, RN 10 and Insoumis Arnoux at 6. So the left would be in a very good position to reclaim the city.

- Metz (Moselle, 57): the PS mayor, Dominique Gros never left the party but is a bit friendly to En Marche. Some of his deputies have joined and his former 1st deputy (now an MP) Richard Lioger was designated as En Marche candidate (there is a dissident Agamemnone who runs as independent). There was a bit of a turmoil in the PS, and first an "anti-En marche" candidate Scuderi was designated, without the support of Gros and a lot of people in his majority who believed they should be more En marche-friendly.  A former cabinet member of Gros', Xavier Bouvet got the support of EELV and PCF and finally PS when they unsupported Scuderi. Dominique Gros also supports Bouvet. But Scuderi is still candidate. There is also an Insoumis list. There's a list by RN also.

On the right, three lists. Senator (and former mayor of Woippy) François Grosdidier has the support of LR, but not of Jean-Louis Masson, another senator who is suspected to encourage the candidacy of businessman Christian Bémer because he hates Grosdidier. There is also a list by a local councillor Emmanuel Lebeau. The center-right-macronist party Agir supports Jéremy Aldrin.

There was a poll in late january putting Grosdidier ahead with 29 with Bouvet at 20, RN at 19 and Lioger at 11. Scuderi was at 6 and all others were below 5%. Theoretically, since Bouvet and Lioger are broadly coming from the same majority, they could be allied to keep the city. But that's unlikely.

- Rouen (Seine-Maritime, 76): the PS mayor Yvon Robert finally decided he would not run again. This leaves quite a vacuum. Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol, who was given the presidency of Haute-Normandie region (before losing the reunited Normandie in 2015) in 2013, is the candidate for the PS, while Jean-Michel Bérégovoy of the green party got the support also of the PCF. He is the nephew of the late socialist prime minister Pierre Bérégovoy, a good man who was probably the last working class PS leader. He killed himself after a notorious campaign against him because of some loans. As Mitterand said at the time « Toutes les explications du monde ne justifieront pas qu'on ait pu livrer aux chiens l'honneur d'un homme et finalement sa vie, au prix d'un double manquement de ses accusateurs aux lois fondamentales de notre République, celles qui protègent la dignité et la liberté de chacun d'entre nous. » (All explanations possible would never justify giving to the dogs the honor of a man and finally his life, at the price of a double infringement to the fundamental laws of our Republic, thoses which protect the dignity and freedom of every one of us).

A businessman, Jean-Louis Louvel, owner of a rugby club and a local newspaper was supported by LREM and then LR. The former candidate for UMP in 2014 Bures still maintained his candidady, as well as the macronist Marine Caron, first elected as center-right UDI to the département council (of which she is a VP). There are also Insoumis' and RN lists.

The last poll was quite long ago, in september, and was ordered by En Marche. The candidates are not all there. Bérégovoy got 23, Louvel 22 and Mayer-Rossignol 20. Bures and RN got 13 each and Insoumis 8%. In september, most polls were quite generous to the greens, so it's quite possible that Mayer-Rossignol would be ahead. In any case, it should stay on the left if they merge for the second run.

- Saint-Denis (La Réunion, 974 (there is another Saint-Denis in Seine Saint Denis)): The PS mayor Gilbert Anette is not running. Ericka Bareigts, a PS MP and former minister is supported by the PS, the PCR (Parti Communiste Réunionnais, which was quite powerful and controlled the regional council between 1998 to 2010 with Paul Vergès) and the Greens. On the left there are also an ecologist Yvette Duchemann, and yellow-vests-friendly list headed by Magaly Onesio with somme Insoumis.

The senator Nassimah Dindar, once member of the UMP, is supported by LREM while Didier Robert, former UMP president of the regional council is also candidate as an independent. There's no poll. I think Bareigts should hold it for PS.

- Strabourg (Bas-Rhin, 67): the former PS mayor Roland Ries doesn't hide his friendliness toward En Marche. His 1st deputy, Alain Fontanel, is a candidate supported by En Marche. Mathieu Cahn was designated by the PS but very low polls pushed him to resign and Catherine Trautmann, minister in the 1990s, was asked to be candidate to "save the PS". And indeed it was a good choice. They went from 9% for Cahn in a january poll to 17% for Trautmann in a february poll. Still, both Fontanel with 27 and Barseghian (Green also supported by PCF) at 25. The LR Vetter was polled at 15, the RN at 10 and insoumis at 4.

I think that Trautmann might pull this off. But Strasbourg is heavily green-friendly (as well as the Alsace region) so the greens are still favourite (with a simple left-merger). Fontanel might go down in the polls given the political climate.

- Villeurbane (Rhône, 69): the PS mayor Jean-Paul Bret is retiring. Cedric van Styvendael is candidate for the PS and is supported by the PCF and the Insoumis. The greens have fielded Béatrice Vessilier with again great ambitions. En Marche have given their support to the current 1st deputy of Bret, Prosper Kabalo. An En Marche media-friendly (and quite obnoxious) MP Bruno Bonnell in an independent candidate with former LR councillor Emmanuelle Haziza. After unsuccessful pickings (explaining why Haziza left), LR have fielded Clément Charlieu. RN have a list as well. There are no polls for now. The greens had great ambitions but I think Styvendael will win. 

Transmission is indeed sometimes difficult. But it is more difficult for right-wing and new-macronist mayors than for left-wing mayors, it seems.

In Marseille, the left, finally (partly) united, has succeeded in being ahead. Rubirola (Printemps marseillais, alliance of PS, PCF, Insoumis,  part of EELV - she is green) got 23% votes, ahead of the head of the département Martine Vassal (LR) at 22%, the RN candidate senator (and former mayor of the seventh sector) Ravier with 19%. Then the dissident LR gets 11%, the greens 9%, LREM 8% and the former PS senator (and former mayor of the eigth sector) Samia Ghali 6%.

The left seem poised to take the first sector (Printemps marseillais with Sophie Camard, the replacement for JL Mélenchon at 39%, greens at 10%, Ghali 3%, while LR at 21%, dissident LR 6%, RN at 11% and LREM at 9%), third sector (PM with Rubirola herself at 37%, LR dissident Gilles himself at 22% in his sector, RN at 14%, LR at lower than 10 (cannot qualify, but can merge), Greens at 8%, LREM 5%, Ghali's list at 3%), and eighth sector (Ghali herself at 26%, RN 22%, PM with communist Coppola 19%, LR 14%, LR dissident 4%, LREM 8% and Greens 5%.

The right are probably sure to take the fifth sector (LR at 32%, RN 22%, PM 15%, Greens 10%, LR dissident just short of 10%, LREM at 7%) and the sixth sector (LR at 28%, RN 23%, PM 16%, LR dissident 11%, Greens 9%, LREM 7%, Ghali's list at 4%).

The other sectors will be well fought for.

The second sector, the incumbent Radical Left mayor Lisette Narducci, who became a Gaudin (LR) ally in 2014 and now is allied with LR dissident Bruno Gilles can still keep her sector but it will be difficult. She's at 17% with PM's Payan (PS) at 26%. The LR list at 16% could give Narducci some hope with a merger; RN at 13%, the Ghali list at 9,99% (very very close to qualification; they can still merge), LREM 8%, Greens 7%. It will all depend on mergers and the date of the second round!

The fourth sector is also a battleground. Martine Vassal (LR) is herself candidate, and ahead with 27%. PM is close with 24% with Greens at 12% and Ghali's list at 2%. RN is at 13%, the LREM overall candidate Yvon Berland got 12% and can qualify, LR dissident at 9%. It will all depend on the talks between lists.

Finally, the FN seventh sector is also a battleground. Ravier (RN) managed to get 33% and is well ahead of LR at 18%, PM at 16%, Ghali's list at 11%, LR dissident at 9%, Greens at 6%, LREM 5%. It is quite similar to 2014, though back then the right was not divided at 27% and the first left-wing list at 21%. Good dynamics for the next months or so might put the left ahead. But nothing sure.

If we compare with the 2008 results where the left got 49 seats, the right 51 seats and FN 1 seat, the left had the 1st, 2nd, 7th and 8th sectors. With the 3rd rather than the 7th, it's maybe less councillors since the 3rd has less than the 7th. However, they'll do better in the 4th sector which might bring 2 or 3 more councillors, even with a defeat. If the left wins a fifth sector (the 4th or 7th), the left will have a clear win.

In Besançon, former PS incumbent mayor Fousseret (now a definite macronist) supported his former press secretary. She got less than 5%. The united left around Greens Anne Vignot got 31%, ahead of LR's 24% and former Greens turned LREM MP Alauzet 19%. Insoumis got only 8% and RN 7%. The left seem poised to "keep" the city and prevent another LREM mayor.

In Strasbourg, Catherine Trautman didn't manage in the few weeks she was candidate to upset everyone. She's a very close third with 19,77%, 41 votes less than Fontanel (LREM) at 19,86%, both of them quite far from Greens Barseghian at 28%. The right LR is at 18%, RN 6%. A fourthway might be quite uncertain so long (mybe threen months) after the first-run.

In Metz, PS incumbent Dominique Gros (now a bit friendly to macronists) supported the greens who did 25%. His former 1st deputy, though,  Lioger for LREM did only 7% and cannot qualify. The right-wing Grosdidier (LR) is ahead close to 30%. RN is qualified at 12%, there's a dissident LREM at 6% and a dissident PS at 6%. So there is no given for the second round, and a left-wing victory is still manageable, but difficult.

In Rouen, the PS seems to have managed the succession of Yvon Robert. Mayer-Rossignol got close to 30%, ahead of the Greens Beregovoy at 23%. LREM-LR candidate got 17%, the LR dissident can qualify at 10% but neither RN at 7 or LREM dissident at 6 can. LFI candidate at 4% cannot even merge with a better-placed list.

In Villeurbanne, the PS also are managing succession quite well. Van Styvendael got 33%, ahead of the Greens at 27% and LREM at 15%. RN at 8%, LREM dissident at 7% and the right less than 5%.

And finally, Saint-Denis in La Réunion will also keep a PS mayor. The MP Ericka Bareigts got 43%, with the right wing Robert, pdt of the region is at 25%, and the right wing former president of the département now senator Nassimah Dindar with 13%. Other lists didn't manage to qualify.

[relique]

Mar 2, 2020 11:55:06 GMT relique said:

New category today

Cities with (right-wing) incumbent mayors allied with En Marche:

- Amiens (Somme, 80): The UDI (center-right, officially but that's debatable) new mayor gained the city from the left in 2014 allied with UMP/LR. Brigitte Fouré has since said a lot of praise for the government and is also supported by LREM this time.

In 2017 there was a new MP for the Amiens-Abbeville constituency: François Ruffin, a french activist and journalist who published "Fakir", who directed "Merci Patron", a documentary about offshoring and corruption practices in big very profitable companies (especially LVMH) and the impact in cities from north of France. In 2017 he was supported by a lot of left-wing parties (the insoumis finally supported him but they were not happy about it because he would not commit to their program) and gained the seat. He now is more or less part of the Insoumis movement but is seen as an "électron libre". For the local election, his local movement (Picardie Debout!) is fielding Julien Pradat, who, in the end, is supported by most parties on the left (FI, PCF, PS, EELV). However, dissident insoumis have fielded Cédric Maisse.

The other Amiens-based mp is former Green party Barbara Pompili, elected first with the support of PS in 2012 and then with the support of LREM. Her companion Christophe Porquier, also former Green, is a dissident candidate from LREM, supported by their own small party, a scission of the greens. There is also another dissident LREM list from the president of the local chamber for trade and industry Fany Ruin and a list by a former deputy mayor of Brigitte Fouré, Renaud Deschamps.

A poll was conducted a month ago. Fourré was ahead with 34%, with Pradat on 24%, RN at 12, Insoumis, Porquier and Deschamps at 6-7 and all others at less than 3%. In a potential second run, Fourré would get 46% and Pradat 40%.

- Caen (Calvados, 14): the city was gained by the right-wing UMP Joël Bruneau from the left in 2014. He is candidate again and has included people from LREM in his list. There's no LREM list against him. On the left, the greens are allied with PCF with Rudy L'Orphelin, while PS have fielded Gilles Déterville. There's an Insoumis, another left-wing and a RN list as well. The only poll was quite long ago, in august. It's therefore not that significant, candidates are not the right ones etc... Bruneau was at a very healthy 45%, L'Orphelin at 23 and Déterville at 14. Another left (but not the right one) was given at 7 with the RN at 8. The city might be taken back from the left if one list is clearly ahead and Bruneau below 40%.

- Saint-Paul (La Réunion, 974): the city was gained by the right-wing UMP Joseph Sinimalé in 2014 from the very left MP Huguette Bello (former PCR, has her own local movement and is sitting in the communist-and over-sees mp group). The two are candidates again. Sinimalé is allied with LREM. Another mayor, Alain Bénard, UMP mayor between 1995 and 2008 and beaten by Bello, is candidate as well as an independent.

There was a poll released today for the local news, with Bello at 47% and the two former right-wing mayors at 14. Given the social climate in La Réunion, that's not such a weird result but still it's quite a result !! In 2017, in a constituency including 3 of the 5 cantons of Saint-Paul and other cities, Bello did get 57% at the first run (but had to run in a second round because of low voter participation; you need a majority of 50%+1 but also 25% of registered voters to be elected in the first run) so that's not such a stretch.  But the poll was conducted by a local company that I don't know so we should be circumspect.

- Toulouse (Haute-Garonne, 31): Fourth and final city of this category with a right wing mayor who's beaten a left-wing incumbent in 2014. Jean-Luc Moudenc was a former right wing mayor beaten in 2008. He has included in his list members of LREM and is supported by LREM. On the left there was an attempt to unite left parties with "Archipel Citoyen". It's the green Antoine Maurice who is leading the list, but there were rumbles among people from it and some have left since then; PS and PCF support socialist Nadia Pellefigure while the former PS mayor Pierre Cohen, now a member of the Benoît Hamon movement Générations, is also leading a list. A centrist (Modem) deputy mayor Franck Biasotto is also heading a list, as well as the RN.

There was a poll disclosed a couple of weeks ago. Moudenc was at 41%, Maurice at 24, Pellefigue at 14 and Cohen at 7,5. RN at 7 and all others at 2% or less. The division of the left might prevent them from taking back the city.

- Nice (Alpes-Maritimes, 06): Christian Estrosi, the LR mayor has always had positive relationships with LREM. He is supported by both LR and LREM this time (which is important because LR could have fielded someone against him). In a very right-wing city, the left have put forward three lists: Governatori supported by greens and other ecologist movements is a center-right ecologist; Allemand is supported by the PS and Damiano by PCF and Insoumis. They could succeed in all doing less than 10% and being unable to participate to the second run. They might be saved by an Estrosi victory in the first run, because it would mean all lists over 5% can have councillors (if there's a second run, only list over 10% can qualify; if no left-wing list can qualify, they would get 0 councillor). A former very conservative deputy-mayor Colonel Benoît kandel is candidate, as well as the RN Vardon. A poll conducted a few weeks ago put Estrosi at 49, Governatori at 14, Damiano at 8 and Lallemand at 6. Kandel was at 6 and RN at 13.

Edit: I thought Annecy had an LREM list but it's a dissident.

- Annecy (Haute-Savoie, 74): So the LR mayor Jean-Luc Rigaut is supported by LREM. A LREM MP, Frédérique Lardet is candidate as a dissident. On the left, the former head of the PS-PCF list Denis Duperthuy is an independent candidate and one of his running mate François Astorg is candidate with the support of PS, PCF and the Greens. There is also a RN list. In the current context, I think there shouldn't be any tight contest here...

Not that good results in this category.

Only in Caen was the LR incumbent mayor Bruneau reelected with an alliance with LREM. But it was quite tight. He got 50,79% of votes, ahead of Greens at 26%, PS at 9%, an other left at 5%, RN at 5% and Insoumis at 3%. A united left might have appeared to the left electorate more likely to win, and they would probably have had more support.

Even in Nice, Christian Estrosi needs a second round, he only got 48%, 3 points more than 2014 when there was a far-right list at 10 and the FN at 16 (and the former right wing mayor at 3%). Now the RN got 17%, the greens 11, PCF 9%, PS 7%. PS-Greens were at 15% last time and PCF at 5%. There was another right-wing list at 7%

In the very right-wing Annecy (there was a socialist mayor during one year after the second WW) as well the incumbent needs a second round. Rigaut only got 28,39% of the votes, 150 ahead of the united left candidat Astorg at 27,87%. The dissident candidate is at 22%, and de former PS Duperthuy at 10%. RN is at 9%. It will all depend on who stays divided and who does unite !

In Amiens, the center-right mayor is not in a very good position. She got 30%, ahead of the united left at 26%. Her former deputy Deschamps is at 11%, and a LREM dissident at just less than 10%. The former greens turned LREM now dissident Porquer is also just short of 10%, while the RN did only 8%. The dissident insoumis Maisse is only at 4%. The left seem to have very few votes available to pull off an upset, but since the second round will be in june, who knows ? There was only 32% of people going to the polls in this region close to the Oise cluster.

In Toulouse, Moudenc (LR-LREM) is an even more troubled position. He got 36% which is not that bad, but two left lists are not that far. Greens' Maurice got 28%, PS' Pellefigue 19% with a third list by former PS mayor (now Générations, the Hamon party) Cohen at 6%. RN is only at 4% and other lists at 1 or lower than 1%. The left will probably unite, and win back the city. 

In Saint-Paul in La Réunion, the MP (caucusing with the communists) Huguette Bello didn't manage as good a result as in the poll, but with 37%, she's still a favourite. The two former mayors did 20 and 15%, the more recent one, Sinimale, getting ahead of the old one. All the other lists are below 10% only one getting more than 5%. Unless there's a very big dynamic for the right and a happy merger, Bello should retake the city safely.

[relique]

Mar 2, 2020 13:17:33 GMT relique said:

Now, I will be a bit quicker on the next two categories because the fields are less open and the reelection of the incumbents far more likely.

Cities with left-wing incumbents against LREM lists:

First, you need to know that the greens have had big ambitions since the european election. They thought they might beat incumbent socialists because of their poor showing both in presidential and european elections. The polls have all showed that despite a bit of a green wave, incumbents socialists mayor are quite well-liked and have big support. So I will just give you cities in this case (with low suspense) with the latest poll if there is one:

- Lille (Nord, 59): Martine Aubry (PS) was supposed to retire but she has failed to find herself a successor. In the latest february poll she's given at 35% (in an alliance with PCF), with 21% for the Greens' Baly, 14 for Spillebout (LREM, former staffer of Aubry), 12 for RN, 10 for Daubresse (LR, former mayor of Lambersart) and 7,5 for Poix (Insoumis).

- Nantes (Loire-Atlantique, 44): Johanna Rolland (PS) is in a similar situation. The latest poll, however was done in June 2019. She was at 33%, the Greens at 23%, LR 15%, LREM 14%, RN 8% and Insoumis at 6%.

- Rennes (Île-et-Villaine, 35): Nathalie Appéré (PS) as well with an alliance with PCF. No poll available.

- Brest (Finistère, 29): François Cuillande (PS) in the same position, without any poll available.

- Dijon (Côte-d'Or, 21): François Rebsamen, the very centrist PS, still faces a LREM list. A february poll put him at 38, Greens at 20, LR at 16 ,FN at 9, LREM and Insoumis at 6 and a dissident Green at 5.

- Clermont-Ferrand (Puy-de-Dôme, 63):  Olivier Bianchi (PS) has a larger alliance with support from the PCF and the Greens. In a january poll, he was given at 45%, with LR at 21%, LREM at 10% and Modem at 6% (Modem candidate has dropped out and supports LREM now), RN at 9 and Insoumis at 8.

- Le Mans (Sarthe, 72): After the death of Jean-Claude Boulard, it's the PS MP Stéphane Le Foll who became mayor in 2018. The other PS MP Marietta Karamanli is fielding a dissident list. There's an official and dissident LREM lists as well and an official and dissident LR list ! On the left, the Greens have fielded Isabelle Sévère, Insoumis and PCF Marie James. This election is a bit more uncertain than the ones above. I think LREM and the right will be quite behind, but I don't know what could be the results for Le Foll, Karamanli and the greens (and who might merge with whom ! ).  Le Foll was elected MP without an En Marche candidate against him while Karamanli was elected against an En Marche candidate. I'm not sure who of the two socialists have the better relationship with the greens' candidate...

- Paris (Paris, 75): That's the most talked about election so I won't do a lot about it. Griveaux dropping out was the best news for En Marche and LR. He was a toxic candidate. Hidalgo (PS) seemed poised to keep the city with a merger with the greens for the second run. Since Griveaux dropped out, some green (and Villani) voters seem to go back to En Marche while right-wing voters for Griveaux seem to go back to Dati. It will all depend on the mergers between the first and the second run in key arrondissements.

In Lille, Aubry (PS) pulled ahead of the greens' Baly with 30% against 25%. LREM's Spillebout (former head of Aubry's cabinet) got 17,5%. Just below 10%, we find Insoumis' Poix at 9%, LR's senator Daubresse at 8% and RN at 7%. On the night of the election, Spillebout asked the greens for an alliance against Aubry. This will probably not happen though (even though I don't find the local greens very reputable, and think they could do anything to be mayor, so who knows).

In Nantes, Rolland (PS) is also ahead with 31%, with LR at 20%, Greens at 19,5% and LREM at 13%. Insoumis at 9% and RN just short of 5%. She's in an even better position than Aubry.

In Rennes, Appéré (PS) got 33% and Greens 25%. LREM got 14% and right-wing Compagnon 12%. Insoumis got 7,5% and RN 4%.

In Brest, Cuillandre (PS) was a bit lower at 27%, ahead of the right Malgorn at 19% and Greens at 16%. LREM got 13%. The president of the local university got 9% and Insoumis and RN 7%. A PS-Greens merger should guarantee them to keep the city.

In Clermont-Ferrand, Bianchi (PS supported by Greens and PCF) got 38%, LR 21%, LREM 16% and Insoumis 12%. Another left wing list is at 6% and RN at 5%.

Rebsamen (PS) in Dijon also got 38%, ahead of LR at 20%, Greens at 15%, LREM at 9%, RN at 7%, Insoumis at 6% and dissident Green at 4.

Very weird result in Le Mans. Stéphane Le Foll for the PS got 42% of the vote while the other Le Mans PS MP Marietta Karamanli got 13%. They are the only ones qualified, the greens doing 9,98%, LR 8,5%, LREM 7%, RN 6% and Insoumis 5%.

Overall in Paris, Hidalgo (PS) did a solid 29%, ahead of Dati (LR) at 23%, Buzyn (LREM) at 17%, Greens' Belliard at 11% and dissident LREM MP Villani at only 8%. Insoumis Simmonet got less than 5% overall.

There's one arrondissement with the final results: Dati (LR) managed to win in the first round in her 7ème arrondissement. With 50% ahead of LREM at 23% and PS at 11%, she wins the 4 Paris councillors, which is the same result as in 2014 (in the 2nd round last time). LR lists seem poised to win as well the 6ème, 8ème, 16ème and 17ème.  In 6 and 8, they will get as many Paris councillors (3) as last time. In the 16ème, they will probably lose one or two to LREM, the PS losing 1 (they didn't qualify) to LREM as well. In the 17ème, LR will probably lose 1 to Buzyn herself, and the PS lose also 1 of their two seats to LREM as well. So compared to 2014, in those right-wing arrondissements, there might be: LR -2/-3, PS -2, LREM +4/+5.

The left are poised to win 10ème, 11ème, 13ème, 18ème, 19ème and 20ème arrondissements, whatever a potential alliance between LR and LREM. If there's no alliance between LR and LREM, the left will get 1 more seat in 10ème and 11ème (LREM will probably get 1 from LR there as well). The right will lose 1 seat to LREM or the left in 13ème as well, 2 seats in 18ème to LREM and maybe 1 to the left, 1 seat in 19ème to LREM or the left, 1 seat to LREM in 20ème and Insoumis Simmonet might lose hers to PS-Greens.

In thos left-wing arrondissement, there might be: PS-EELV: +2/+6, Insoumis =/-1, LREM +3/+6, LR -7/-9

The left are well-placed in many "swing" arrondissements. In first sector (1er to 4ème arrondissement), PS is at 34%, LREM 21%, LR 20%, Greens 10%, Villani's list at 8%, Insoumis at 2%. The left, after merger, should win it. If LR/LREM merge, it might be tight, but I think the left will get it and 6-7 Paris councillors to 1 for LREM and 0-1 to LR (there were . In 12ème arrondissement, PS 1st deputy is at 33%, LR at 23%, LREM 17%, Greens at 12% and Villani's list 8%. LFI cannot merge, just below 5%. Same deal but with LR better placed than LREM. Out of the 10 councillors, the left should keep the 8, LR losing 1 to LREM. In 14ème, PS' Petit is at 33%, LR 20%, LREM 16%, Villani himself at 12% can maintain his list, and the Greens have 11%. Insoumis (with a anti-specist head of list) got only 3%. The left will keep their 8 Paris councillors, LR losing 1 to LREM (but Villani unable to get one in my opinion, unless he gets top position in a merger with LREM provided all his other lists support LREM).

In those three "swing" arrondissements, left should have =/+1, LR -3/-4, LREM +3.

Then, there are three right-wing arrondissement where mayors were not fans of Dati. In 5ème arrondissement, Berthout is a candidate for LREM, she got 28%, ahead of PS at 25%, LR at 17%, Greens at 11% and Villani's list 8%. Insoumis at 3% cannot merge. If LR and LREM are divided, PS might pull an upset and win it. If they merge, Berthout is sure to be reelected. Without a merger, it will either be 3 PS/1 LREM or 3 LREM/1 PS; with a merger, it will be 2LREM+1LR /1PS. In 9ème arrondissement, Burkli is also candidate for LREM. She got 37%, with PS at 25%, LR at 16%, Greens just below 10% and Villani's list at 7%. Burkli will be reelected with or without a merger with LR. Without a merger, she'll get 3 Paris councillors to the left 1. With a merger, the left would still keep 1 seat but LREM might give LR 1 seat. Finally, in 15ème arrondissement, Goujon is a dissident LR. He got 21%, below the LR official candidat Evren at 23%, with PS at 20%, LREM at 17%, Greens at 8% and Villani's list at 7%. I have no idea who will merge with whom on the right. If they all maintain themselves, the left could win it !! It would be quite huge ! There are 18 Paris councillors. If the left pulls a victory with 30%, they'll get 12-13 seats, with LR 2-3, Goujon 2 and LREM 1-2. An Alliance between two out of the three right-wing lists will guarantee victory if the electors follow. The merged list would get 13-14 seats, the left 3, and the other right-wing list 1-2.

So without the 15ème arrondissement, the total Paris councillors numbers might be:

Left (PS+Greens): 88/95 (=/+7)

LR: 34/40 (-22/-17)

LREM: 13/20 (+13/+20)

LFI: 0/1 (-1/=)

So out of 163 paris councillors, no matter what happens in 15ème arrondissement, Hidalgo should be mayor. With the 15ème arrondissement, we could have

Left (PS+Greens): 91/108 (=/+17)

LR: 36/48 (-35/-23)

LREM: 14/26 (+14/+26)

Goujon: 2/8 (+2/+8)

LFI: 0/1 (-1/=)

Hidalgo should have as many seats as in 2014, and maybe more. LR will stay the main opposition.

[relique]

Mar 2, 2020 13:17:33 GMT relique said:

Cities with left-wing incumbents against LREM lists:

Now, cities with not-PS mayors:

- Saint-Denis (Seine-Saint-Denis, 93): the new communist mayor Laurent Russier is allied with the greens. Didier Paillard, former PCF mayor gave away his position in 2016. The former MP PS Mathieu Hanotin had a lot of ambition in this city but his failure in 2014 (50,5/49,5 for Paillard in the second run) and the loss in the 2017 législatives probably means he will not win in Saint-Denis again. Like every-where in the "banlieue rouge" of Paris, Insoumis had also a lot of ambitions. One constituency went to Insoumis Coquerel in 2017 while the other (Hanotin's) went to PCF (with support from Insoumis) Stéphane Peu. Insoumis have fielded Bally Bagayoko. The former socialist opponent to Paillard, Georges Sali is again an independent-left candidate. There's a LREM-UDI candidate, Alexandre Aïdara, and a dissident UDI Houari guermat. UDI's president, mayor of Drancy, is often accused of using islamist networks in Seine-Saint Denis to win cities against communist -in Bobigny for example.

I think Russier will be reelected.

- Montreuil (Seine-Saint-Denis, 93): the communist mayor Patrice Bessac is here supported also by the PS and the Insoumis. In 2008, Dominique Voynet (former presidential candidate for the Greens) benefitted from heavy right-wing transfers to beat communist long-time mayor Jean-Pierre Brard. Brard had since then left the PCF and was an independent candidate in 2014. Voynet was not candidate. Bessac was ahead of the three PCF, EELV and PS lists and there was a merger to beat Brard who was ahead of the field. EELV have fielded Mireille Alphonse. There is a LR-LREM list. In a poll two weeks ago (but with a RN list which was not fielded), Bessac was awarded 48%, Alphone 20% LR-LREM 11% and other lists less than 10. He is a clear favourite.

- Grenoble (Isère, 38): Eric Piolle (EELV) was elected in 2014 when the incumbent PS mayor retired. He now has a bigger coalition, rallying the PCF, Insoumis and a lot of new small left-wing parties. The PS fielded a new candidate Olivier Noblecourt. A former right-wing mayor Alain Carignon, convicted of 4 years of prison in 1994 in a corruption charge, is candidate and supported by LR. The LREM MP Emilie Chalas is candidate for her party. There is an ex-FN candidate, Mirelle D'Ornano, but no RN (she kept a lot of people with her after leaving the party and they couldn't field a whole list). Dissident insoumis have also fielded a candidate.

There is a february poll with Piolle at 36, Carignon at 20, Noblecourt at 19, Chalas at 16 and others at less than 5. He is a clear favourite but if he were at less than 35 and Noblecourt at 25, a PS-LREM alliance could unseat him. I don't know if that's likely, though...

- Montpellier (Héraut, 34): Philippe Saurel (former PS, close to Manuel Valls) won the city from the PS in 2014. He could have been close to LREM but locally, LREM is managed by socialists he's beaten in 2014. So Patrick Vignal, former campaign manager of the PS 2014 candidate and MP for PS in 2012 and then LREM in 2017 is a candidate supported by En Marche. PS have fielded Mickael Delafosse, also supported by PCF. The greens have had an epic mess. They first organised an "open primary" where Clothile Ollier has beaten Jean-Louis Roumégas, the former head of the regional election list and long-time local leader. He then said she had cheated and announced he would run as an independent. Then, because Ollier got closer to the Insoumis, the green national comity have announced they did not support her anymore. She sued them and obtained, by the courts, that this removal of support was unlawful given the greens own by-laws. Now there are three green lists. And while Ollier was awarded spectacular polls, beating Saurel in the first and second run, all greens lists are far behind now. 

The last poll (the only one after this mess) gave Saurel 25%, Delafosse 12, Altrad (president of the rugby club, supporter of Macron) 12, Ollier 9, Mantion (Green official) 7, Roumégas 5, Insoumis 7. A comic, Rémi Gaillard, 8%, RN 7, LR 5 and LREM Vignal 5%. A very crowded field with difficulties for every-one to merge for the second run and beat Saurel. But Saurel is still a bit vulnerable.

Next and final message for the 100,000+ inhabitants cities will be on right-wing incumbents fighting against LREM. I will also distinguish between recently conquered cities and more long-time right-wing cities.

In Saint-Denis (93), the communists are in trouble. Russier, the incumbent mayor is only second with 24%, far behind the former PS MP Hanotin at 35%. However, the third list that can qualify is the Insoumis Bagayoko at 18. If the two radical-left lists merge, Russier might be reelected. LREM is below the 10% threshold, and every other lists are below 5%.

In Montreuil, however, the communist mayor is reelected in the first round with 51%, the Greens getting 16%. LREM-LR list gets 8% and 2 seats in the council, and a dissident socialist (former deputy of Bessac) gets 7% and also 2 seats.

In Grenoble, the greens' incumbent Piolle got 47% far from the former right-wing mayor Carignon with 20%, LREM at 14% and PS at 13%. Other lists are below the 5% merger-threshold. No problem for him.

Finally, in Montpellier, it's a mess. No list got more than 20%. The incumbent very center and a bit left Saurel got 19%, the PS candidate Delafosse got 17% and the pdt of the rugby club Altrad got 13%. The comic Gaillard got just below 10% (during the night he was first announced above the qualifying threshold). Insoumis got 9%, both the official Greens Mantion and the excommunicated Green Ollier 7% (and the former Green head of the regional list just 1% which is quite fun), LREM's Vignal 6%, RN below 5% and LR below 4%.  Both Delafosse and Altrad seem to hate Saurel. The question is who will gather enough support to overtake him in the second round.

Mar 2, 2020 16:22:25 GMT relique said:

Cities with right-wing incumbents fighting against LREM candidates:

- Boulogne-Billancourt (Hauts-de-Seine, 92): Pierre-Christophe Baguet, the right-wing incumbent mayor of this very bourgeois city is candidate. There's a LREM list, a right-wing independent list (there was one in 2014), a PS, a Green and an Insoumis-PCF list. No surprise expected here. No polls as well.

- Toulon (Var, 83): Hubert Falco is the right-wing mayor since 2001. He took back the city from the FN, who conquered it in 1995, the biggest city they have ever controlled (and not a happy experience). There will be a RN list against him, an En Marche list, a united left-wing list headed by Green Guy Rebec and an independent right-wing list. I don't see any difficult challenge here for Falco who probably will be reelected in the first run.

- Aix-en-Provence (Bouches-du-Rhône, 13): Maryse Joissains-Masini (LR) was convicted to 1 year ineligibility in 2019 but she appealed and therefore can run (the appeal suspending the conviction). Against her, nearly all the left is united behind Marc Pena (PS, PCF, Insoumis and others) but Greens have fielded Dominique Sassoon. He is the "suppléant" of the LREM MP and he left the LREM list headed by the same MP, Anne-Laurence Petel. She is supported by her party. There is a former deputy-mayor, LR dissident candidate as well Jean-Marc Perrin.

The left, with the conviction of Joissains-Masini, might have had a shot. The probable alliance between greens and En Marche in the second run will probably allow a three-way race dominated by LR, so probable reelection of LR Joissains-Masini...

- Mulhouse (Haut-Rhin, 68): Michèle Lutz (LR) is candidate again. Three former deputy-mayors are candidate, one Lara Millon for En Marche (she is also supported by local but not national PS), one Fatima Jenn is a dissident LREM and the final one, Christelle Ritz is at the head of the RN list. The rest of the left have united behind Green (and former centrist Modem) Loïc Minery. There is also a regionalist list. The last poll was in 2018 and was quite good for the incumbent. Minery might put up a decent fight, and voters from LREM might be inclined to vote for a Green former centrist candidate in the second run.

- Nîmes (Gard, 30) Jean-Paul Fournier is candidate again with the support of LR. He conquered the communist city in 2001. In 2014 the national context didn't help the left and the communists had two lists. Now there is one candidate, Vincent Bouget, also supported by small left-parties, some Insoumis, some socialists, against a Green party candidate Daniel Richard supported by other Insoumis and the official PS. LREM gave support to a former deputy-mayor, former MP Yvan Lachaud, but there is a dissident LREM list as well. RN have fielded a list. A february poll gave 33% to Fournier, 20 to RN, 18 to Green's Richard, 15 to Lachaud and 7 to Bouget.

- Perpignan (Pyrénées Orientales, 66): The incumbent LR Jean-Marc Puyol is in difficulties in the biggest city that the RN are targetting with Marine Le Pen's former companion Louis Aliot. Caroline Forgue is the PCF-Insoumis candidate while Agnès Langevine is the Green-PS candidate. The should be on the sidelines. A LREM MP Romain Grau is candidate, as well as a former deputy-mayor Olivier Amiel (LR diss) who is a former fellowparty-man of mine, a nice guy who was excluded when he joined Puyol in 2014 (he then joined LR and became treasurer of the local federation). There is another independent-right Clothile Ripoull, already candidate in 2014 and 2008.

There was an early february poll with Aliot at 30%, Puyol at 19, Langevine at 15,  Grau 13, Forgue 10, Ripoull at 8 and Amiel at 4. Except for a classical left-wing merger, I don't see any one else merging. But Grau will probably not contest the second run (but without a merger) to "faire barrage" (an expression that is becoming tiresome). I don't know if it will be enough, Puyol becoming a bit "used". We call it "l'usure du pouvoir", I don't know if there's a british idiom ?

- Bordeaux (Gironde, 33): the city of Alain Juppé, gone to the Conseil constitutionnel, he always had a big personal vote that didn't help him in other elections (he famously lost in 2007 his MP constituency while Sarkozy got an overall big majority). His successor, Nicolas Florian (LR) will stand against a LREM former staffer to minister Macron Thomas Cazenave. The left have rallied around the Green Pierre Hurmic (EELV, PS, PCF). The former PS candidate Vincent Feltesse tried to be a candidate but dropped out after a series of bad polls. The insoumis have given their support to former presidential trotskyst candidate Philippe Poutou (NPA). There is also a RN list. Two polls in mid-february: one gave Florian at 34 and Hurmic at 33 with Cazenave at 16, Poutou 9 and RN at 5. The other gave Florian a bigger lead at 40, Hurmic 30, Poutou ahead of Cazenave at 12 and 11 with RN still at 5. Poutou will not merge with the Green candidate. Florian might merge with Cazenave (or Cazenave might be below 10 and unable to maintain his candidacy) so Florian is a favorite in a city that could be won by the left.

No surprise in Boulogne-Billancourt and Toulon where incumbents LR mayors were reelected with 56 and 61% respectively.

In Aix-en-Provence, incumbent Joissains got 30%, LREM 20% and united left Pena got 16%. Below 10%, Greens got 9% and LR dissident 9%, RN got 5,5%. Joissains is not in such a good position, but I don't see her opposition coalescing around a single candidate. And the second round being delayed, who knows who will have a good dynamic at that time.

In Mulhouse (very close to a cluster, there was 26% participation to the first round), the incumbent right-wing Lutz got 33%, the Greens 22% and the LREM Million 20%. Ritz for RN got 12%, the dissident LREM Jenn 8% and others below 5%. 

In Nîmes, the incumbent LR got 34%, LREM and PCF 16%. RN got 14% and Greens-PS 12%. The incumbent should be alright, with a united left list possibly creating a nice challenge.

In Perpignan, the RN  Aliot is ahead. He got 36% while the incumbent LR only got 18%. The Greens got 14%, LREM 13% and Insoumis 7%. It's likely that some will withdraw their list to help the incumbent to be reelected against RN. But nothing is sure, especially because poor results overall make people think RN voters were among the most abstentionnists because of the Coronavirus. After the health crisis gone, they might come back in force.

Finally, in Bordeaux, the incumbent mayor is only 96 votes ahead of the Green-PS candidate Hurmic (34,5 against 34,4%). LREM is at 13%, Poutou from NPA supported by Insoumis got 12%. RN only got 3%. Poutou has already said he would not merge with Hurmic. So who knows what will happen ?

[relique]

Edouard Philippe (the PM) announces the second round of the local elections will be held June 28.

[relique]

The heads of lists have until 6pm tonight to register their list for the second round.

They can either register the same list they had in the first round if they got at least 10% of the votes, or register a list which includes also candidates from other lists which got at least 5% of the votes (that's a merger).

We already know a few important mergers:
- In Paris Hidalgo (PS incumbent) merges with the greens which was not surprising. no other mergers so Villani will still be candidate in the 14 ème.
- In Lyon Gérard Collomb (LREM former PS incumbent) merged with LR which displeased the parisian headquarters. He is no longer supported by LREM. The deal says Cucherat (LREM) is the candidate for thé mayorship and the LR candidate for the metropolitan area (where Collomb was the candidate). The left lists have all merged both for the mayorship and metropolitan area lead by the Greens and now supported by the PS, PCF and Insoumis. There is still the former LREM rivals of Collomb in the running so it will be a "triangulaire" (three way race) in most arrondissements.
- In Marseille it's a complete mess that will be a bit clearer tonight
- In Lille the PS Aubry did not merge with the Greens which came second. there's a "triangulaire" with the former head of cabinet of Aubry the now LREM Spillebout. Neither the right LR, the far right RN nor the Insoumis qualified and they did not merge as well.
- In Le Havre there are only two lists qualified (the PM's and the PCF MP). The PCF failed to merge with the Greens-PS alliance candidate who did not qualify.

I'll give you in the following days a clearer picture of the battles to come.

[robert1]

Can anyone please clarify whether the second round will be held on June 28th with normal voting or will there be certain 'restrictions/processes' e.g. special social distancing, extra availability of postal voting etc.

[relique]

Jun 21, 2020 7:53:08 GMT robert1 said:

Can anyone please clarify whether the second round will be held on June 28th with normal voting or will there be certain 'restrictions/processes' e.g. special social distancing, extra availability of postal voting etc.

Masks will be mandatory. Some physical distancing, water and soap or gel in every polling station.

For electoral rules only one change, the "procurations" (giving to someone your voting power). Someone can carry two rather than one. And people who cannot go to the police station to do them can ask police officers to come to their home.

Before those rules were established the right wing LR in Marseille made people sign "procurations" in a campaign facility, and a journalist went undercover to give her procuration and revealed these illegal acts. There is a huge scandal involving the campaign manager and head of cabinet of the 6th sector LR mayor seeking reelection. This might tilt the city in favor of the left since they abandoned the seventh sector to a RN/LR battle they need both the 4th (where the LR candidate for the central mayorship Vassal is candidate) and the 6th (where the fraud was doscovered) to flip to win.

[relique]

Mar 16, 2020 18:32:57 GMT relique said:

Mar 1, 2020 18:24:25 GMT relique said:

First category today:

Cities with LREM (or close) incumbents who are candidates:

- Le Havre (in Seine Maritime, 76): Edouard Philippe (former LR), the prime minister, became the mayor in 2010 when the right-wing Antoine Rufenacht resigned 2 years after his reelection (that's a common practice in France to ensure your successor has time to make himself known to the people before facing an election; no by-election is necessary if the municipal council is complete). He was elected in 2014 quite comfortably in the first round (52% against PS at 16, PCF at 16, FN at 13 and LO (trotskyst) at 1).

He gave away his position when he became prime minister to Luc Lemonnier (resigned because he allegedly sent nude photos of him to women who say it was without their consent) and then Jean-Baptiste Gastinne.

The right-wing LR didn't put a candidate against him. There's a big social mobilization in this former communist city, and the communist MP Jean-Paul Lecocq is a candidate and might be able to beat the PM. The far-right RN might call its voters to beat the PM in the second run. PS and Greens (EELV) are supporting another candidate, Alexis Deck, from the Green Party.  No polls yet.

- Lyon (in Rhône, 69): Gérard Collomb (former PS), the former minister of the interior. He is not candidate to the mayorship but to the metropolitan area. Against him is the current president of the metropolitan area who refused to resign when Collomb came back from his position of minister and wanted to take back both the mayorship and the presidency of the metropolitan area. David Kimelfeld, the pdt of the metro area, is candidate against Collomb.

For the mayorship, LREM faces a dissident candidate, Georges Képénékian who held the mayorship during the time Collomb was in government and resigned to give it back to him. He was not chosen by Collomb to be his candidate (Collomb chose Yann Cuchérat instead) and so he is an independent candidate.

To the right, there is almost unity around Etienne Blanc, a former MP in the Ain (01) département, in the same Rhône-Alpes region. Only the mayor of the 2nd arrondissement was opposed to this candidacy and is an independent right-wing candidate (as for Paris, the Lyon mayorship is based on arrondissements, of which there are 9).

To the left, big division between on the one side the PS and PCF united around PS Sandrine Runel, then the Greens (EELV) Grégory Doucet and the mayor of the 1er arrondissement Nathalie Perrin Gilbert which has her own local movement (GRAM) and is allied with Mélenchon's Insoumis.

There were several polls with EELV's Doucet and LR's Etienne Blanc ahead with 20-22%, followed by LREM's Cucherat at 15, independent Képénékian at 11, then the two left-wing lists PS-PCF and N Perrin Gilbert and the far-right and the centrist mayor of the 2nd arrondissement at around 6-9.

The left might retake the city with the greens but there's nothing sure and the right might take back this very bourgeois city.

- Nancy (Meurthe-et-Moselle, 54): Laurent Hénard from "Mouvement Radical" (very close to En Marche and allied this year) faces a tough challenge by the PS president of the Département Mathieu Klein. In 2014, he won against the same candidate 53/47 (at that time the Mouvement Radical was incorporated inside UMP). The Greens have a candidate, Laurent Watrin, and the insoumis also with Nordine Jouira. LR officially support Hénard but a few party affiliates have criticized this choice since the mayor is so close to the government. There is a dissident right wing list headed by Patricia Melet. The far-right RN has also its list.

There was a recent poll where Hénard and Klein were at 34% each, with the greens at 12 and all other lists at 6 or less. With a PS-EELV alliance, the city might be gained by the left.

- Orléans (Loiret, 45): the right wing mayor Serge Grouard resigned in 2015 because of health reasons. His successor Olivier Carré left LR and became quite close to LREM. Grouard, feeling better, is the candidate for LR while Carré is supported by LREM. The left are divided between EELV's Jean-Philippe Grand and PS-PCF's Dominique Tripet. The Insoumis list was invalidated because of lack of signatures (and a candidate still worked at the municipal administration, so she couldn't be a candidate). The left don't stand a chance here.

There was a recent poll where Grouard was at 29-32, Carré at 23-24, EELV's Grand at 21-22, PS's Tripet at 7 and insoumis and RN at 6. The city will probably go back to the right. 

- Angers (Maine-et-Loire, 49): the right wing mayor Christophe Béchu left LR and is very close to the government. LR didn't field any candidate against him. The left is divided between PS's Silvia Camara-Tombini, EELV's Yves Aurégan (also supported by PCF, and somme left-wing supporters of LREM; they initially wanted to have LREM's (former Green and close to Nicolas Hulot) MP Lorphelin as a candidate but he refused) and Insoumis's Claire Schweitzer. There is also a list by the far-right. The mayor Béchu has courted a former EELV senator, Corinne Bouchoux who is now on his list. The left being divided, it's difficult to imagine it taking back this city which was socialist from 1977 to 2014 ! There is no poll at this time.

One good result for allies to the government here, Angers: Béchu is reelected with 58%, getting 49 council seats and 35 inter-city council seats. PS is at 17% (5 and 4), Greens at 14 (4 and 3) while the Insoumis are at 5% with 1 elected councillor who will also be seated in the inter-city council.

2 tight results:

- the PM in Le Havre gets 44%, 8 points less than 2014, PCF MP gets 36% (+20), EELV-PS 8% (-8 compared to PS), RN at 7% (-6). I think the PCF can create an upset here, the PM having no chance of an endorsement by a defeated candidate.

- In Nancy, the mayor is at 35%, behind the PS candidate Klein at 38% with the greens at 10% with both Insoumis and RN at 4%. A merger with the greens would probably guarantee Klein to take the city for the left.

2 very bad results:

- Grouard, the right-wing former mayor of Orléans succeeds in his comeback with 36%, very far from the current LREM-backed mayor Carré at only 24%. The greens are at 19% and PS at 13% might merge and have a decent showing in a second run.

- In the second most populous city, where the mayor if the former minister for the interior Gérard Collomb, Lyon, LREM seems very very far off with Cucherat at 15%. They are 2nd in 4 of the 9 sectors, with Cucherat himself at 20% in the 5th sector, behind Greens at 23%, and Collomb himself in the 9th sector at 22% far from Greens at 30%. The Greens are the big winners here with 28% overall and ahead in 8 out of 9 sectors (the 6th is headed by LR list). The right LR are doing well in the 6th, in the 2nd (very close to Greens). Broliquier, the incumbent centrist is candidate here and dit 18%, third. With an alliance with Insoumis Perrin Gilbert (2nd in the 1st sector where she is an incumbent, at 27% against 32% for the greens; she could also maintain her lists in the 4th and the 7th) who is at 10% overall and/or PS Runel (only able to qualify in her own 8th sector) at 7% overall, the Greens should win the city. Képénekian is at 12% overall, at 12% as well in his 3rd sector, with Palomino 2nd at 19% in the 4th sector. A very large alliance between LR, LREM and all centrists lists might still win 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th sectors and maybe in with a shot at the 8th or 9th sectors.

In Le Havre, the contest between the prime minister Edouard Philippe (LREM-ish) and the communist member of parliament Jean-Paul Lecoq is tight. A poll gave 53% to Philippe and 47% to Lecoq, in a context where the Green-PS candidate is really not supporting Lecoq as he could. National leaders of the left, however, came and gave their support. It will probably be the most watched for election result on sunday !

Lyon might be the second one. The former minister of Interior Gérard Collomb (former PS) went into an alliance with the right-wing LR. His candidate for mayorship Yan Cucherat (LREM) is the unity candidate while the LR candidate for the presidency of the metropolitan area is the unity candidate. The Greens merged with all left-wing lists and are still favourite for the mayorship, but not for the metropolitan area. It will all depend on the level of the dissident LREM candidates, knowing that LREM condemned the alliance between Collomb and LREM. It's a big mess where we quite don't know what the electors might feel. No poll was made here after the merger yet. There might be one coming tomorrow but that's the only day possible (and usually, they prefer having polls released on thursday so that people can react on friday: on saturday, you cannot send out a message that was not yet published before, you can give a flyer but it needs to have been already distributed before saturday, so that you give your opposition enough time to respond; on sunday, no one is authorised to speak)

In Nancy, as I've said, the PS president of the département is favourite for the second run. The right-wing is kinda going nuts, saying voting Klein (PS) is voting communists, with a nice image:

In Orléans, the Greens and PS-PCF have merged in what is now a three way race between the right-wing government-backed mayor, the right-wing not governement-backed former mayor and the united left. Even though it's probably the best scenario for the left, I don't think they will be able to win here, and the former mayor Grouard should be the victor. The government-backed mayor might finish third.

[relique]

Mar 17, 2020 9:21:38 GMT relique said:

Mar 1, 2020 22:28:12 GMT relique said:

New category:

Cities where the incumbent is not candidate:

They are probably the most open fields and transmission will be quite difficult for the incumbents !

- Marseille (Bouches-du-Rhône, 13): the right-wing LR mayor Jean-Claude Gaudin has announced quite long ago he would not contest the election. There was a dogfight between his fellow-party members. The president of the Bouches-du-Rhône département Martine Vassal was designated but Bruno Gilles, senator and head of the LR Bouches-du-Rhône federation maintained his candidacy (and left the party). There was turmoil on the left side with a unifying initiative "Printemps marseillais" achieved unity between PS, PCF, insoumis and a lot of small left-wing parties. The Greens didn't want to join (they hoped their european scores would give them first place every where) but were divided. Printemps Marseillais have designated Michèle Rubirola, a green département council member as their candidate ! Samia Ghali, the only sector-mayor the PS kept in 2014 is also candidate with her own lists. Like Lyon and Paris, Marseille is divided in arrondissement, but for the mayorship elections, 16 arrondissements are united in 8 sectors. While polls were quite positive for the PS in 2014 (they thought it would be the big city that would go against the national trend, like Paris in 2001), they only won one sector, losing 1 to the FN (the other 'northern working-class sector') and 3 to the right. (In 2008, there were 51 councillors for the right, 49 for the left and already 1 for the FN; in 2014 the right got 61 councillors, the FN 20 and the left 20)

LREM have designated Yvon Berland, president of Aix-Marseille 2 university. There was a poll in january. Vassal got 23, Gilles 7 and the FN senator (and former mayor of sector) 22. Rubirola got 16, the greens 14, LREM 8 and Ghali 7 (with a probably good score in her own sector and very low in the others). The right seems still in a good enough position but not that good. Gaudin got 37% last time (FN 23, left 20+7+5). If the Ghali vote is concentrated in the north, alliances on the left might give them back 4 sectors. And the result might be tight. There is speculation that the FN will lose their sector this time (it was 35/32/32 last time and the common idea is that the right will be down in the second run whatever happens).

- Besançon (Doubs, 25): the mayor, Jean-Louis Fousseret was elected as a PS but became quite close to the government and is today considered to be En Marche. En Marche gave their support to Eric Alauzet, former Green MP who was reelected without an En Marche candidate against him (and with a label "presidential majority") and joined the LREM group. On the left, the greens' Anne Vignot is supported by the PS and the PCF. There is an Insoumis Claire Arnoux. The right-wing LR has fielded Ludovic Fagaut and there's also a list by RN.

There was a poll in january with Vignot at 34, Alauzet at 23, Fagaut 15, RN 10 and Insoumis Arnoux at 6. So the left would be in a very good position to reclaim the city.

- Metz (Moselle, 57): the PS mayor, Dominique Gros never left the party but is a bit friendly to En Marche. Some of his deputies have joined and his former 1st deputy (now an MP) Richard Lioger was designated as En Marche candidate (there is a dissident Agamemnone who runs as independent). There was a bit of a turmoil in the PS, and first an "anti-En marche" candidate Scuderi was designated, without the support of Gros and a lot of people in his majority who believed they should be more En marche-friendly.  A former cabinet member of Gros', Xavier Bouvet got the support of EELV and PCF and finally PS when they unsupported Scuderi. Dominique Gros also supports Bouvet. But Scuderi is still candidate. There is also an Insoumis list. There's a list by RN also.

On the right, three lists. Senator (and former mayor of Woippy) François Grosdidier has the support of LR, but not of Jean-Louis Masson, another senator who is suspected to encourage the candidacy of businessman Christian Bémer because he hates Grosdidier. There is also a list by a local councillor Emmanuel Lebeau. The center-right-macronist party Agir supports Jéremy Aldrin.

There was a poll in late january putting Grosdidier ahead with 29 with Bouvet at 20, RN at 19 and Lioger at 11. Scuderi was at 6 and all others were below 5%. Theoretically, since Bouvet and Lioger are broadly coming from the same majority, they could be allied to keep the city. But that's unlikely.

- Rouen (Seine-Maritime, 76): the PS mayor Yvon Robert finally decided he would not run again. This leaves quite a vacuum. Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol, who was given the presidency of Haute-Normandie region (before losing the reunited Normandie in 2015) in 2013, is the candidate for the PS, while Jean-Michel Bérégovoy of the green party got the support also of the PCF. He is the nephew of the late socialist prime minister Pierre Bérégovoy, a good man who was probably the last working class PS leader. He killed himself after a notorious campaign against him because of some loans. As Mitterand said at the time « Toutes les explications du monde ne justifieront pas qu'on ait pu livrer aux chiens l'honneur d'un homme et finalement sa vie, au prix d'un double manquement de ses accusateurs aux lois fondamentales de notre République, celles qui protègent la dignité et la liberté de chacun d'entre nous. » (All explanations possible would never justify giving to the dogs the honor of a man and finally his life, at the price of a double infringement to the fundamental laws of our Republic, thoses which protect the dignity and freedom of every one of us).

A businessman, Jean-Louis Louvel, owner of a rugby club and a local newspaper was supported by LREM and then LR. The former candidate for UMP in 2014 Bures still maintained his candidady, as well as the macronist Marine Caron, first elected as center-right UDI to the département council (of which she is a VP). There are also Insoumis' and RN lists.

The last poll was quite long ago, in september, and was ordered by En Marche. The candidates are not all there. Bérégovoy got 23, Louvel 22 and Mayer-Rossignol 20. Bures and RN got 13 each and Insoumis 8%. In september, most polls were quite generous to the greens, so it's quite possible that Mayer-Rossignol would be ahead. In any case, it should stay on the left if they merge for the second run.

- Saint-Denis (La Réunion, 974 (there is another Saint-Denis in Seine Saint Denis)): The PS mayor Gilbert Anette is not running. Ericka Bareigts, a PS MP and former minister is supported by the PS, the PCR (Parti Communiste Réunionnais, which was quite powerful and controlled the regional council between 1998 to 2010 with Paul Vergès) and the Greens. On the left there are also an ecologist Yvette Duchemann, and yellow-vests-friendly list headed by Magaly Onesio with somme Insoumis.

The senator Nassimah Dindar, once member of the UMP, is supported by LREM while Didier Robert, former UMP president of the regional council is also candidate as an independent. There's no poll. I think Bareigts should hold it for PS.

- Strabourg (Bas-Rhin, 67): the former PS mayor Roland Ries doesn't hide his friendliness toward En Marche. His 1st deputy, Alain Fontanel, is a candidate supported by En Marche. Mathieu Cahn was designated by the PS but very low polls pushed him to resign and Catherine Trautmann, minister in the 1990s, was asked to be candidate to "save the PS". And indeed it was a good choice. They went from 9% for Cahn in a january poll to 17% for Trautmann in a february poll. Still, both Fontanel with 27 and Barseghian (Green also supported by PCF) at 25. The LR Vetter was polled at 15, the RN at 10 and insoumis at 4.

I think that Trautmann might pull this off. But Strasbourg is heavily green-friendly (as well as the Alsace region) so the greens are still favourite (with a simple left-merger). Fontanel might go down in the polls given the political climate.

- Villeurbane (Rhône, 69): the PS mayor Jean-Paul Bret is retiring. Cedric van Styvendael is candidate for the PS and is supported by the PCF and the Insoumis. The greens have fielded Béatrice Vessilier with again great ambitions. En Marche have given their support to the current 1st deputy of Bret, Prosper Kabalo. An En Marche media-friendly (and quite obnoxious) MP Bruno Bonnell in an independent candidate with former LR councillor Emmanuelle Haziza. After unsuccessful pickings (explaining why Haziza left), LR have fielded Clément Charlieu. RN have a list as well. There are no polls for now. The greens had great ambitions but I think Styvendael will win. 

Transmission is indeed sometimes difficult. But it is more difficult for right-wing and new-macronist mayors than for left-wing mayors, it seems.

In Marseille, the left, finally (partly) united, has succeeded in being ahead. Rubirola (Printemps marseillais, alliance of PS, PCF, Insoumis,  part of EELV - she is green) got 23% votes, ahead of the head of the département Martine Vassal (LR) at 22%, the RN candidate senator (and former mayor of the seventh sector) Ravier with 19%. Then the dissident LR gets 11%, the greens 9%, LREM 8% and the former PS senator (and former mayor of the eigth sector) Samia Ghali 6%.

The left seem poised to take the first sector (Printemps marseillais with Sophie Camard, the replacement for JL Mélenchon at 39%, greens at 10%, Ghali 3%, while LR at 21%, dissident LR 6%, RN at 11% and LREM at 9%), third sector (PM with Rubirola herself at 37%, LR dissident Gilles himself at 22% in his sector, RN at 14%, LR at lower than 10 (cannot qualify, but can merge), Greens at 8%, LREM 5%, Ghali's list at 3%), and eighth sector (Ghali herself at 26%, RN 22%, PM with communist Coppola 19%, LR 14%, LR dissident 4%, LREM 8% and Greens 5%.

The right are probably sure to take the fifth sector (LR at 32%, RN 22%, PM 15%, Greens 10%, LR dissident just short of 10%, LREM at 7%) and the sixth sector (LR at 28%, RN 23%, PM 16%, LR dissident 11%, Greens 9%, LREM 7%, Ghali's list at 4%).

The other sectors will be well fought for.

The second sector, the incumbent Radical Left mayor Lisette Narducci, who became a Gaudin (LR) ally in 2014 and now is allied with LR dissident Bruno Gilles can still keep her sector but it will be difficult. She's at 17% with PM's Payan (PS) at 26%. The LR list at 16% could give Narducci some hope with a merger; RN at 13%, the Ghali list at 9,99% (very very close to qualification; they can still merge), LREM 8%, Greens 7%. It will all depend on mergers and the date of the second round!

The fourth sector is also a battleground. Martine Vassal (LR) is herself candidate, and ahead with 27%. PM is close with 24% with Greens at 12% and Ghali's list at 2%. RN is at 13%, the LREM overall candidate Yvon Berland got 12% and can qualify, LR dissident at 9%. It will all depend on the talks between lists.

Finally, the FN seventh sector is also a battleground. Ravier (RN) managed to get 33% and is well ahead of LR at 18%, PM at 16%, Ghali's list at 11%, LR dissident at 9%, Greens at 6%, LREM 5%. It is quite similar to 2014, though back then the right was not divided at 27% and the first left-wing list at 21%. Good dynamics for the next months or so might put the left ahead. But nothing sure.

If we compare with the 2008 results where the left got 49 seats, the right 51 seats and FN 1 seat, the left had the 1st, 2nd, 7th and 8th sectors. With the 3rd rather than the 7th, it's maybe less councillors since the 3rd has less than the 7th. However, they'll do better in the 4th sector which might bring 2 or 3 more councillors, even with a defeat. If the left wins a fifth sector (the 4th or 7th), the left will have a clear win.

In Besançon, former PS incumbent mayor Fousseret (now a definite macronist) supported his former press secretary. She got less than 5%. The united left around Greens Anne Vignot got 31%, ahead of LR's 24% and former Greens turned LREM MP Alauzet 19%. Insoumis got only 8% and RN 7%. The left seem poised to "keep" the city and prevent another LREM mayor.

In Strasbourg, Catherine Trautman didn't manage in the few weeks she was candidate to upset everyone. She's a very close third with 19,77%, 41 votes less than Fontanel (LREM) at 19,86%, both of them quite far from Greens Barseghian at 28%. The right LR is at 18%, RN 6%. A fourthway might be quite uncertain so long (mybe threen months) after the first-run.

In Metz, PS incumbent Dominique Gros (now a bit friendly to macronists) supported the greens who did 25%. His former 1st deputy, though,  Lioger for LREM did only 7% and cannot qualify. The right-wing Grosdidier (LR) is ahead close to 30%. RN is qualified at 12%, there's a dissident LREM at 6% and a dissident PS at 6%. So there is no given for the second round, and a left-wing victory is still manageable, but difficult.

In Rouen, the PS seems to have managed the succession of Yvon Robert. Mayer-Rossignol got close to 30%, ahead of the Greens Beregovoy at 23%. LREM-LR candidate got 17%, the LR dissident can qualify at 10% but neither RN at 7 or LREM dissident at 6 can. LFI candidate at 4% cannot even merge with a better-placed list.

In Villeurbanne, the PS also are managing succession quite well. Van Styvendael got 33%, ahead of the Greens at 27% and LREM at 15%. RN at 8%, LREM dissident at 7% and the right less than 5%.

And finally, Saint-Denis in La Réunion will also keep a PS mayor. The MP Ericka Bareigts got 43%, with the right wing Robert, pdt of the region is at 25%, and the right wing former president of the département now senator Nassimah Dindar with 13%. Other lists didn't manage to qualify.

A lot of things happened in Marseille as I've said earlier. It is quite uncertain. Will the voters sanction LR for maybe trying to tamper with the election ? It's not very unusual in Marseille, though, and was not something LR was most famous for (the Guérini (PS, now dissident)-system was well known for a long time).

If you look at the results on sunday, you need to be focused on the 4th and the 6th sectors. They need both to go left for the left-wing candidate to have a shot at the mayorship, since the left has (stupidly) abandoned the 7th sector to a two-way race between RN and LR. The number to look for is 51 council seats to get a clear majority (100 seats at the council).

Polls have shown the left-wing candidate at 35-36, the right-wing candidate at 29-30 and RN at 20-22. This could go either way depending on the distribution among the sectors but the most probable would be a left-wing win.

In Besançon, the Greens can win the mayorship, but a lot of former political leaders of the PS have supported other candidates. Alexandra Cordier (former LREM), who had the (former PS now LREM) mayor at the end of her list, officially supported LR candidate (but cannot merge, since she got less than 5%), like Allenbach, a "regionalist" right-wing candidate who also got less than 5%. The LR candidate could win with the support of RN, right-wing electors and even some LREM electors.

In Strasbourg there was a surprise on the last day lists could be officially filed. The left lists announced they didn't merge, while at the last minute, LR and LREM have announced a merger. So it will be a three-way race between Greens, LREM-LR and PS. I don't think the PS votes will "run" to the Greens, so LREM should have the city with LR.

In Metz, the LR candidate merged with a dissident LREM Agamemnonne. He should be elected against the Green and RN.

In Rouen, some even wonder why they should have a second run. The PS and Green lists have merged (they totaled 53% in the first run) and the third candidat, LREM Louvet gave up, not filing his list for the second run. The LR dissident merged with the LREM dissident

In Villeurbanne, in the Lyon suburbs, the PS candidate has merged with the Greens (they totaled more than 60% of the 1st run votes), in a two-way race against government-backed candidate Kabalo (less than 15%). Easy win here.

Finally, in Saint-Denis (La Réunion), a surprise: the PS Bareigts has merged with the right-wing senator, former pdt of the Département (elected against the left) Nassimah Dindar. So a two-way race with the PS a clear favourite.