Local Elections in France.

[relique]

Feb 14, 2020 20:05:38 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

relique, what does this mean for ludicrous Villiani?

Well the problem is that he purposely defied macron a couple of weeks ago. If this happened earlier, they might have merged and they might have gives the selection to him. But the campaigns have spent a lot of money and if you merged them now, they would probably be above the authorized ceiling and could not spend any more.

So he'll probably continue on his own.

I'm not sure he'll do better. Maybe marginally but mostly it is Dati that will benefit

(Although there is a rumour that internal polling from en marche showed griveaux 4th behind the greens' candidate; so a new candidate might not be able to do worse).

What will probably happen though is that talks will take place between Villani and the new candidate to merge after the first run. They might then be able to be a bit stronger.

[relique]

So, on March 15 & 22, local ("municipales", 36.000 cities in France) elections will take place in France.

Thursday night was the last moment for candidates to declare their lists. We now have a more complete picture of the races.

So first, I'll give you some clues to what can happen in 100,000+ inhabitants cities.

Because of the very recent apparition of Macron and "LREM" (La République en Marche, his movement), there were no LREM candidates in the last elections. But they still have some incumbents, because of course a lot of french politicians from left-wing and right-wing parties joined Macron.

I will then try to give you some categories of cities.

First category today:

Cities with LREM (or close) incumbents who are candidates:

- Le Havre (in Seine Maritime, 76): Edouard Philippe (former LR), the prime minister, became the mayor in 2010 when the right-wing Antoine Rufenacht resigned 2 years after his reelection (that's a common practice in France to ensure your successor has time to make himself known to the people before facing an election; no by-election is necessary if the municipal council is complete). He was elected in 2014 quite comfortably in the first round (52% against PS at 16, PCF at 16, FN at 13 and LO (trotskyst) at 1).

He gave away his position when he became prime minister to Luc Lemonnier (resigned because he allegedly sent nude photos of him to women who say it was without their consent) and then Jean-Baptiste Gastinne.

The right-wing LR didn't put a candidate against him. There's a big social mobilization in this former communist city, and the communist MP Jean-Paul Lecocq is a candidate and might be able to beat the PM. The far-right RN might call its voters to beat the PM in the second run. PS and Greens (EELV) are supporting another candidate, Alexis Deck, from the Green Party.  No polls yet.

- Lyon (in Rhône, 69): Gérard Collomb (former PS), the former minister of the interior. He is not candidate to the mayorship but to the metropolitan area. Against him is the current president of the metropolitan area who refused to resign when Collomb came back from his position of minister and wanted to take back both the mayorship and the presidency of the metropolitan area. David Kimelfeld, the pdt of the metro area, is candidate against Collomb.

For the mayorship, LREM faces a dissident candidate, Georges Képénékian who held the mayorship during the time Collomb was in government and resigned to give it back to him. He was not chosen by Collomb to be his candidate (Collomb chose Yann Cuchérat instead) and so he is an independent candidate.

To the right, there is almost unity around Etienne Blanc, a former MP in the Ain (01) département, in the same Rhône-Alpes region. Only the mayor of the 2nd arrondissement was opposed to this candidacy and is an independent right-wing candidate (as for Paris, the Lyon mayorship is based on arrondissements, of which there are 9).

To the left, big division between on the one side the PS and PCF united around PS Sandrine Runel, then the Greens (EELV) Grégory Doucet and the mayor of the 1er arrondissement Nathalie Perrin Gilbert which has her own local movement (GRAM) and is allied with Mélenchon's Insoumis.

There were several polls with EELV's Doucet and LR's Etienne Blanc ahead with 20-22%, followed by LREM's Cucherat at 15, independent Képénékian at 11, then the two left-wing lists PS-PCF and N Perrin Gilbert and the far-right and the centrist mayor of the 2nd arrondissement at around 6-9.

The left might retake the city with the greens but there's nothing sure and the right might take back this very bourgeois city.

- Nancy (Meurthe-et-Moselle, 54): Laurent Hénard from "Mouvement Radical" (very close to En Marche and allied this year) faces a tough challenge by the PS president of the Département Mathieu Klein. In 2014, he won against the same candidate 53/47 (at that time the Mouvement Radical was incorporated inside UMP). The Greens have a candidate, Laurent Watrin, and the insoumis also with Nordine Jouira. LR officially support Hénard but a few party affiliates have criticized this choice since the mayor is so close to the government. There is a dissident right wing list headed by Patricia Melet. The far-right RN has also its list.

There was a recent poll where Hénard and Klein were at 34% each, with the greens at 12 and all other lists at 6 or less. With a PS-EELV alliance, the city might be gained by the left.

- Orléans (Loiret, 45): the right wing mayor Serge Grouard resigned in 2015 because of health reasons. His successor Olivier Carré left LR and became quite close to LREM. Grouard, feeling better, is the candidate for LR while Carré is supported by LREM. The left are divided between EELV's Jean-Philippe Grand and PS-PCF's Dominique Tripet. The Insoumis list was invalidated because of lack of signatures (and a candidate still worked at the municipal administration, so she couldn't be a candidate). The left don't stand a chance here.

There was a recent poll where Grouard was at 29-32, Carré at 23-24, EELV's Grand at 21-22, PS's Tripet at 7 and insoumis and RN at 6. The city will probably go back to the right. 

- Angers (Maine-et-Loire, 49): the right wing mayor Christophe Béchu left LR and is very close to the government. LR didn't field any candidate against him. The left is divided between PS's Silvia Camara-Tombini, EELV's Yves Aurégan (also supported by PCF, and somme left-wing supporters of LREM; they initially wanted to have LREM's (former Green and close to Nicolas Hulot) MP Lorphelin as a candidate but he refused) and Insoumis's Claire Schweitzer. There is also a list by the far-right. The mayor Béchu has courted a former EELV senator, Corinne Bouchoux who is now on his list. The left being divided, it's difficult to imagine it taking back this city which was socialist from 1977 to 2014 ! There is no poll at this time.

[relique]

New category:

Cities where the incumbent is not candidate:

They are probably the most open fields and transmission will be quite difficult for the incumbents !

- Marseille (Bouches-du-Rhône, 13): the right-wing LR mayor Jean-Claude Gaudin has announced quite long ago he would not contest the election. There was a dogfight between his fellow-party members. The president of the Bouches-du-Rhône département Martine Vassal was designated but Bruno Gilles, senator and head of the LR Bouches-du-Rhône federation maintained his candidacy (and left the party). There was turmoil on the left side with a unifying initiative "Printemps marseillais" achieved unity between PS, PCF, insoumis and a lot of small left-wing parties. The Greens didn't want to join (they hoped their european scores would give them first place every where) but were divided. Printemps Marseillais have designated Michèle Rubirola, a green département council member as their candidate ! Samia Ghali, the only sector-mayor the PS kept in 2014 is also candidate with her own lists. Like Lyon and Paris, Marseille is divided in arrondissement, but for the mayorship elections, 16 arrondissements are united in 8 sectors. While polls were quite positive for the PS in 2014 (they thought it would be the big city that would go against the national trend, like Paris in 2001), they only won one sector, losing 1 to the FN (the other 'northern working-class sector') and 3 to the right. (In 2008, there were 51 councillors for the right, 49 for the left and already 1 for the FN; in 2014 the right got 61 councillors, the FN 20 and the left 20)

LREM have designated Yvon Berland, president of Aix-Marseille 2 university. There was a poll in january. Vassal got 23, Gilles 7 and the FN senator (and former mayor of sector) 22. Rubirola got 16, the greens 14, LREM 8 and Ghali 7 (with a probably good score in her own sector and very low in the others). The right seems still in a good enough position but not that good. Gaudin got 37% last time (FN 23, left 20+7+5). If the Ghali vote is concentrated in the north, alliances on the left might give them back 4 sectors. And the result might be tight. There is speculation that the FN will lose their sector this time (it was 35/32/32 last time and the common idea is that the right will be down in the second run whatever happens).

- Besançon (Doubs, 25): the mayor, Jean-Louis Fousseret was elected as a PS but became quite close to the government and is today considered to be En Marche. En Marche gave their support to Eric Alauzet, former Green MP who was reelected without an En Marche candidate against him (and with a label "presidential majority") and joined the LREM group. On the left, the greens' Anne Vignot is supported by the PS and the PCF. There is an Insoumis Claire Arnoux. The right-wing LR has fielded Ludovic Fagaut and there's also a list by RN.

There was a poll in january with Vignot at 34, Alauzet at 23, Fagaut 15, RN 10 and Insoumis Arnoux at 6. So the left would be in a very good position to reclaim the city.

- Metz (Moselle, 57): the PS mayor, Dominique Gros never left the party but is a bit friendly to En Marche. Some of his deputies have joined and his former 1st deputy (now an MP) Richard Lioger was designated as En Marche candidate (there is a dissident Agamemnone who runs as independent). There was a bit of a turmoil in the PS, and first an "anti-En marche" candidate Scuderi was designated, without the support of Gros and a lot of people in his majority who believed they should be more En marche-friendly.  A former cabinet member of Gros', Xavier Bouvet got the support of EELV and PCF and finally PS when they unsupported Scuderi. Dominique Gros also supports Bouvet. But Scuderi is still candidate. There is also an Insoumis list. There's a list by RN also.

On the right, three lists. Senator (and former mayor of Woippy) François Grosdidier has the support of LR, but not of Jean-Louis Masson, another senator who is suspected to encourage the candidacy of businessman Christian Bémer because he hates Grosdidier. There is also a list by a local councillor Emmanuel Lebeau. The center-right-macronist party Agir supports Jéremy Aldrin.

There was a poll in late january putting Grosdidier ahead with 29 with Bouvet at 20, RN at 19 and Lioger at 11. Scuderi was at 6 and all others were below 5%. Theoretically, since Bouvet and Lioger are broadly coming from the same majority, they could be allied to keep the city. But that's unlikely.

- Rouen (Seine-Maritime, 76): the PS mayor Yvon Robert finally decided he would not run again. This leaves quite a vacuum. Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol, who was given the presidency of Haute-Normandie region (before losing the reunited Normandie in 2015) in 2013, is the candidate for the PS, while Jean-Michel Bérégovoy of the green party got the support also of the PCF. He is the nephew of the late socialist prime minister Pierre Bérégovoy, a good man who was probably the last working class PS leader. He killed himself after a notorious campaign against him because of some loans. As Mitterand said at the time « Toutes les explications du monde ne justifieront pas qu'on ait pu livrer aux chiens l'honneur d'un homme et finalement sa vie, au prix d'un double manquement de ses accusateurs aux lois fondamentales de notre République, celles qui protègent la dignité et la liberté de chacun d'entre nous. » (All explanations possible would never justify giving to the dogs the honor of a man and finally his life, at the price of a double infringement to the fundamental laws of our Republic, thoses which protect the dignity and freedom of every one of us).

A businessman, Jean-Louis Louvel, owner of a rugby club and a local newspaper was supported by LREM and then LR. The former candidate for UMP in 2014 Bures still maintained his candidady, as well as the macronist Marine Caron, first elected as center-right UDI to the département council (of which she is a VP). There are also Insoumis' and RN lists.

The last poll was quite long ago, in september, and was ordered by En Marche. The candidates are not all there. Bérégovoy got 23, Louvel 22 and Mayer-Rossignol 20. Bures and RN got 13 each and Insoumis 8%. In september, most polls were quite generous to the greens, so it's quite possible that Mayer-Rossignol would be ahead. In any case, it should stay on the left if they merge for the second run.

- Saint-Denis (La Réunion, 974 (there is another Saint-Denis in Seine Saint Denis)): The PS mayor Gilbert Anette is not running. Ericka Bareigts, a PS MP and former minister is supported by the PS, the PCR (Parti Communiste Réunionnais, which was quite powerful and controlled the regional council between 1998 to 2010 with Paul Vergès) and the Greens. On the left there are also an ecologist Yvette Duchemann, and yellow-vests-friendly list headed by Magaly Onesio with somme Insoumis.

The senator Nassimah Dindar, once member of the UMP, is supported by LREM while Didier Robert, former UMP president of the regional council is also candidate as an independent. There's no poll. I think Bareigts should hold it for PS.

- Strabourg (Bas-Rhin, 67): the former PS mayor Roland Ries doesn't hide his friendliness toward En Marche. His 1st deputy, Alain Fontanel, is a candidate supported by En Marche. Mathieu Cahn was designated by the PS but very low polls pushed him to resign and Catherine Trautmann, minister in the 1990s, was asked to be candidate to "save the PS". And indeed it was a good choice. They went from 9% for Cahn in a january poll to 17% for Trautmann in a february poll. Still, both Fontanel with 27 and Barseghian (Green also supported by PCF) at 25. The LR Vetter was polled at 15, the RN at 10 and insoumis at 4.

I think that Trautmann might pull this off. But Strasbourg is heavily green-friendly (as well as the Alsace region) so the greens are still favourite (with a simple left-merger). Fontanel might go down in the polls given the political climate.

- Villeurbane (Rhône, 69): the PS mayor Jean-Paul Bret is retiring. Cedric van Styvendael is candidate for the PS and is supported by the PCF and the Insoumis. The greens have fielded Béatrice Vessilier with again great ambitions. En Marche have given their support to the current 1st deputy of Bret, Prosper Kabalo. An En Marche media-friendly (and quite obnoxious) MP Bruno Bonnell in an independent candidate with former LR councillor Emmanuelle Haziza. After unsuccessful pickings (explaining why Haziza left), LR have fielded Clément Charlieu. RN have a list as well. There are no polls for now. The greens had great ambitions but I think Styvendael will win. 

[Devil Wincarnate]

Catherine Trautman! A big beast especially out in Alsace. If I'm not mistaken, she brought back the Alsatian language to Strasbourg.

[relique]

New category today

(after which there will be the largest categories: incumbent mayors who are fighting against LREM)

Cities with (right-wing) incumbent mayors allied with En Marche:

- Amiens (Somme, 80): The UDI (center-right, officially but that's debatable) new mayor gained the city from the left in 2014 allied with UMP/LR. Brigitte Fouré has since said a lot of praise for the government and is also supported by LREM this time.

In 2017 there was a new MP for the Amiens-Abbeville constituency: François Ruffin, a french activist and journalist who published "Fakir", who directed "Merci Patron", a documentary about offshoring and corruption practices in big very profitable companies (especially LVMH) and the impact in cities from north of France. In 2017 he was supported by a lot of left-wing parties (the insoumis finally supported him but they were not happy about it because he would not commit to their program) and gained the seat. He now is more or less part of the Insoumis movement but is seen as an "électron libre". For the local election, his local movement (Picardie Debout!) is fielding Julien Pradat, who, in the end, is supported by most parties on the left (FI, PCF, PS, EELV). However, dissident insoumis have fielded Cédric Maisse.

The other Amiens-based mp is former Green party Barbara Pompili, elected first with the support of PS in 2012 and then with the support of LREM. Her companion Christophe Porquier, also former Green, is a dissident candidate from LREM, supported by their own small party, a scission of the greens. There is also another dissident LREM list from the president of the local chamber for trade and industry Fany Ruin and a list by a former deputy mayor of Brigitte Fouré, Renaud Deschamps.

A poll was conducted a month ago. Fourré was ahead with 34%, with Pradat on 24%, RN at 12, Insoumis, Porquier and Deschamps at 6-7 and all others at less than 3%. In a potential second run, Fourré would get 46% and Pradat 40%.

- Caen (Calvados, 14): the city was gained by the right-wing UMP Joël Bruneau from the left in 2014. He is candidate again and has included people from LREM in his list. There's no LREM list against him. On the left, the greens are allied with PCF with Rudy L'Orphelin, while PS have fielded Gilles Déterville. There's an Insoumis, another left-wing and a RN list as well. The only poll was quite long ago, in august. It's therefore not that significant, candidates are not the right ones etc... Bruneau was at a very healthy 45%, L'Orphelin at 23 and Déterville at 14. Another left (but not the right one) was given at 7 with the RN at 8. The city might be taken back from the left if one list is clearly ahead and Bruneau below 40%.

- Saint-Paul (La Réunion, 974): the city was gained by the right-wing UMP Joseph Sinimalé in 2014 from the very left MP Huguette Bello (former PCR, has her own local movement and is sitting in the communist-and over-sees mp group). The two are candidates again. Sinimalé is allied with LREM. Another mayor, Alain Bénard, UMP mayor between 1995 and 2008 and beaten by Bello, is candidate as well as an independent.

There was a poll released today for the local news, with Bello at 47% and the two former right-wing mayors at 14. Given the social climate in La Réunion, that's not such a weird result but still it's quite a result !! In 2017, in a constituency including 3 of the 5 cantons of Saint-Paul and other cities, Bello did get 57% at the first run (but had to run in a second round because of low voter participation; you need a majority of 50%+1 but also 25% of registered voters to be elected in the first run) so that's not such a stretch.  But the poll was conducted by a local company that I don't know so we should be circumspect.

- Toulouse (Haute-Garonne, 31): Fourth and final city of this category with a right wing mayor who's beaten a left-wing incumbent in 2014. Jean-Luc Moudenc was a former right wing mayor beaten in 2008. He has included in his list members of LREM and is supported by LREM. On the left there was an attempt to unite left parties with "Archipel Citoyen". It's the green Antoine Maurice who is leading the list, but there were rumbles among people from it and some have left since then; PS and PCF support socialist Nadia Pellefigure while the former PS mayor Pierre Cohen, now a member of the Benoît Hamon movement Générations, is also leading a list. A centrist (Modem) deputy mayor Franck Biasotto is also heading a list, as well as the RN.

There was a poll disclosed a couple of weeks ago. Moudenc was at 41%, Maurice at 24, Pellefigue at 14 and Cohen at 7,5. RN at 7 and all others at 2% or less. The division of the left might prevent them from taking back the city.

- Nice (Alpes-Maritimes, 06): Christian Estrosi, the LR mayor has always had positive relationships with LREM. He is supported by both LR and LREM this time (which is important because LR could have fielded someone against him). In a very right-wing city, the left have put forward three lists: Governatori supported by greens and other ecologist movements is a center-right ecologist; Allemand is supported by the PS and Damiano by PCF and Insoumis. They could succeed in all doing less than 10% and being unable to participate to the second run. They might be saved by an Estrosi victory in the first run, because it would mean all lists over 5% can have councillors (if there's a second run, only list over 10% can qualify; if no left-wing list can qualify, they would get 0 councillor). A former very conservative deputy-mayor Colonel Benoît kandel is candidate, as well as the RN Vardon. A poll conducted a few weeks ago put Estrosi at 49, Governatori at 14, Damiano at 8 and Lallemand at 6. Kandel was at 6 and RN at 13.

Edit: I thought Annecy had an LREM list but it's a dissident.

- Annecy (Haute-Savoie, 74): So the LR mayor Jean-Luc Rigaut is supported by LREM. A LREM MP, Frédérique Lardet is candidate as a dissident. On the left, the former head of the PS-PCF list Denis Duperthuy is an independent candidate and one of his running mate François Astorg is candidate with the support of PS, PCF and the Greens. There is also a RN list. In the current context, I think there shouldn't be any tight contest here...

[relique]

Now, I will be a bit quicker on the next two categories because the fields are less open and the reelection of the incumbents far more likely.

Cities with left-wing incumbents against LREM lists:

First, you need to know that the greens have had big ambitions since the european election. They thought they might beat incumbent socialists because of their poor showing both in presidential and european elections. The polls have all showed that despite a bit of a green wave, incumbents socialists mayor are quite well-liked and have big support. So I will just give you cities in this case (with low suspense) with the latest poll if there is one:

- Lille (Nord, 59): Martine Aubry (PS) was supposed to retire but she has failed to find herself a successor. In the latest february poll she's given at 35% (in an alliance with PCF), with 21% for the Greens' Baly, 14 for Spillebout (LREM, former staffer of Aubry), 12 for RN, 10 for Daubresse (LR, former mayor of Lambersart) and 7,5 for Poix (Insoumis).

- Nantes (Loire-Atlantique, 44): Johanna Rolland (PS) is in a similar situation. The latest poll, however was done in June 2019. She was at 33%, the Greens at 23%, LR 15%, LREM 14%, RN 8% and Insoumis at 6%.

- Rennes (Île-et-Villaine, 35): Nathalie Appéré (PS) as well with an alliance with PCF. No poll available.

- Brest (Finistère, 29): François Cuillande (PS) in the same position, without any poll available.

- Dijon (Côte-d'Or, 21): François Rebsamen, the very centrist PS, still faces a LREM list. A february poll put him at 38, Greens at 20, LR at 16 ,FN at 9, LREM and Insoumis at 6 and a dissident Green at 5.

- Clermont-Ferrand (Puy-de-Dôme, 63):  Olivier Bianchi (PS) has a larger alliance with support from the PCF and the Greens. In a january poll, he was given at 45%, with LR at 21%, LREM at 10% and Modem at 6% (Modem candidate has dropped out and supports LREM now), RN at 9 and Insoumis at 8.

- Le Mans (Sarthe, 72): After the death of Jean-Claude Boulard, it's the PS MP Stéphane Le Foll who became mayor in 2018. The other PS MP Marietta Karamanli is fielding a dissident list. There's an official and dissident LREM lists as well and an official and dissident LR list ! On the left, the Greens have fielded Isabelle Sévère, Insoumis and PCF Marie James. This election is a bit more uncertain than the ones above. I think LREM and the right will be quite behind, but I don't know what could be the results for Le Foll, Karamanli and the greens (and who might merge with whom ! ).  Le Foll was elected MP without an En Marche candidate against him while Karamanli was elected against an En Marche candidate. I'm not sure who of the two socialists have the better relationship with the greens' candidate...

- Paris (Paris, 75): That's the most talked about election so I won't do a lot about it. Griveaux dropping out was the best news for En Marche and LR. He was a toxic candidate. Hidalgo (PS) seemed poised to keep the city with a merger with the greens for the second run. Since Griveaux dropped out, some green (and Villani) voters seem to go back to En Marche while right-wing voters for Griveaux seem to go back to Dati. It will all depend on the mergers between the first and the second run in key arrondissements.

Now, cities with not-PS mayors:

- Saint-Denis (Seine-Saint-Denis, 93): the new communist mayor Laurent Russier is allied with the greens. Didier Paillard, former PCF mayor gave away his position in 2016. The former MP PS Mathieu Hanotin had a lot of ambition in this city but his failure in 2014 (50,5/49,5 for Paillard in the second run) and the loss in the 2017 législatives probably means he will not win in Saint-Denis again. Like every-where in the "banlieue rouge" of Paris, Insoumis had also a lot of ambitions. One constituency went to Insoumis Coquerel in 2017 while the other (Hanotin's) went to PCF (with support from Insoumis) Stéphane Peu. Insoumis have fielded Bally Bagayoko. The former socialist opponent to Paillard, Georges Sali is again an independent-left candidate. There's a LREM-UDI candidate, Alexandre Aïdara, and a dissident UDI Houari guermat. UDI's president, mayor of Drancy, is often accused of using islamist networks in Seine-Saint Denis to win cities against communist -in Bobigny for example.

I think Russier will be reelected.

- Montreuil (Seine-Saint-Denis, 93): the communist mayor Patrice Bessac is here supported also by the PS and the Insoumis. In 2008, Dominique Voynet (former presidential candidate for the Greens) benefitted from heavy right-wing transfers to beat communist long-time mayor Jean-Pierre Brard. Brard had since then left the PCF and was an independent candidate in 2014. Voynet was not candidate. Bessac was ahead of the three PCF, EELV and PS lists and there was a merger to beat Brard who was ahead of the field. EELV have fielded Mireille Alphonse. There is a LR-LREM list. In a poll two weeks ago (but with a RN list which was not fielded), Bessac was awarded 48%, Alphone 20% LR-LREM 11% and other lists less than 10. He is a clear favourite.

- Grenoble (Isère, 38): Eric Piolle (EELV) was elected in 2014 when the incumbent PS mayor retired. He now has a bigger coalition, rallying the PCF, Insoumis and a lot of new small left-wing parties. The PS fielded a new candidate Olivier Noblecourt. A former right-wing mayor Alain Carignon, convicted of 4 years of prison in 1994 in a corruption charge, is candidate and supported by LR. The LREM MP Emilie Chalas is candidate for her party. There is an ex-FN candidate, Mirelle D'Ornano, but no RN (she kept a lot of people with her after leaving the party and they couldn't field a whole list). Dissident insoumis have also fielded a candidate.

There is a february poll with Piolle at 36, Carignon at 20, Noblecourt at 19, Chalas at 16 and others at less than 5. He is a clear favourite but if he were at less than 35 and Noblecourt at 25, a PS-LREM alliance could unseat him. I don't know if that's likely, though...

- Montpellier (Héraut, 34): Philippe Saurel (former PS, close to Manuel Valls) won the city from the PS in 2014. He could have been close to LREM but locally, LREM is managed by socialists he's beaten in 2014. So Patrick Vignal, former campaign manager of the PS 2014 candidate and MP for PS in 2012 and then LREM in 2017 is a candidate supported by En Marche. PS have fielded Mickael Delafosse, also supported by PCF. The greens have had an epic mess. They first organised an "open primary" where Clothile Ollier has beaten Jean-Louis Roumégas, the former head of the regional election list and long-time local leader. He then said she had cheated and announced he would run as an independent. Then, because Ollier got closer to the Insoumis, the green national comity have announced they did not support her anymore. She sued them and obtained, by the courts, that this removal of support was unlawful given the greens own by-laws. Now there are three green lists. And while Ollier was awarded spectacular polls, beating Saurel in the first and second run, all greens lists are far behind now. 

The last poll (the only one after this mess) gave Saurel 25%, Delafosse 12, Altrad (president of the rugby club, supporter of Macron) 12, Ollier 9, Mantion (Green official) 7, Roumégas 5, Insoumis 7. A comic, Rémi Gaillard, 8%, RN 7, LR 5 and LREM Vignal 5%. A very crowded field with difficulties for every-one to merge for the second run and beat Saurel. But Saurel is still a bit vulnerable.

Next and final message for the 100,000+ inhabitants cities will be on right-wing incumbents fighting against LREM. I will also distinguish between recently conquered cities and more long-time right-wing cities.

[relique]

I edited a previous message. I thought Annecy had a LREM list but it's a dissident so I put Annecy in the right category.

Final message for 100,000+ inhabitants. I might do more on smaller cities because for my own interests, I'd like to have a clear vision of which cities should be looked at.

Cities with right-wing incumbents fighting against LREM candidates:

- Boulogne-Billancourt (Hauts-de-Seine, 92): Pierre-Christophe Baguet, the right-wing incumbent mayor of this very bourgeois city is candidate. There's a LREM list, a right-wing independent list (there was one in 2014), a PS, a Green and an Insoumis-PCF list. No surprise expected here. No polls as well.

- Toulon (Var, 83): Hubert Falco is the right-wing mayor since 2001. He took back the city from the FN, who conquered it in 1995, the biggest city they have ever controlled (and not a happy experience). There will be a RN list against him, an En Marche list, a united left-wing list headed by Green Guy Rebec and an independent right-wing list. I don't see any difficult challenge here for Falco who probably will be reelected in the first run.

- Aix-en-Provence (Bouches-du-Rhône, 13): Maryse Joissains-Masini (LR) was convicted to 1 year ineligibility in 2019 but she appealed and therefore can run (the appeal suspending the conviction). Against her, nearly all the left is united behind Marc Pena (PS, PCF, Insoumis and others) but Greens have fielded Dominique Sassoon. He is the "suppléant" of the LREM MP and he left the LREM list headed by the same MP, Anne-Laurence Petel. She is supported by her party. There is a former deputy-mayor, LR dissident candidate as well Jean-Marc Perrin.

The left, with the conviction of Joissains-Masini, might have had a shot. The probable alliance between greens and En Marche in the second run will probably allow a three-way race dominated by LR, so probable reelection of LR Joissains-Masini...

- Mulhouse (Haut-Rhin, 68): Michèle Lutz (LR) is candidate again. Three former deputy-mayors are candidate, one Lara Millon for En Marche (she is also supported by local but not national PS), one Fatima Jenn is a dissident LREM and the final one, Christelle Ritz is at the head of the RN list. The rest of the left have united behind Green (and former centrist Modem) Loïc Minery. There is also a regionalist list. The last poll was in 2018 and was quite good for the incumbent. Minery might put up a decent fight, and voters from LREM might be inclined to vote for a Green former centrist candidate in the second run.

- Nîmes (Gard, 30) Jean-Paul Fournier is candidate again with the support of LR. He conquered the communist city in 2001. In 2014 the national context didn't help the left and the communists had two lists. Now there is one candidate, Vincent Bouget, also supported by small left-parties, some Insoumis, some socialists, against a Green party candidate Daniel Richard supported by other Insoumis and the official PS. LREM gave support to a former deputy-mayor, former MP Yvan Lachaud, but there is a dissident LREM list as well. RN have fielded a list. A february poll gave 33% to Fournier, 20 to RN, 18 to Green's Richard, 15 to Lachaud and 7 to Bouget.

- Perpignan (Pyrénées Orientales, 66): The incumbent LR Jean-Marc Puyol is in difficulties in the biggest city that the RN are targetting with Marine Le Pen's former companion Louis Aliot. Caroline Forgue is the PCF-Insoumis candidate while Agnès Langevine is the Green-PS candidate. The should be on the sidelines. A LREM MP Romain Grau is candidate, as well as a former deputy-mayor Olivier Amiel (LR diss) who is a former fellowparty-man of mine, a nice guy who was excluded when he joined Puyol in 2014 (he then joined LR and became treasurer of the local federation). There is another independent-right Clothile Ripoull, already candidate in 2014 and 2008.

There was an early february poll with Aliot at 30%, Puyol at 19, Langevine at 15,  Grau 13, Forgue 10, Ripoull at 8 and Amiel at 4. Except for a classical left-wing merger, I don't see any one else merging. But Grau will probably not contest the second run (but without a merger) to "faire barrage" (an expression that is becoming tiresome). I don't know if it will be enough, Puyol becoming a bit "used". We call it "l'usure du pouvoir", I don't know if there's a british idiom ?

- Bordeaux (Gironde, 33): the city of Alain Juppé, gone to the Conseil constitutionnel, he always had a big personal vote that didn't help him in other elections (he famously lost in 2007 his MP constituency while Sarkozy got an overall big majority). His successor, Nicolas Florian (LR) will stand against a LREM former staffer to minister Macron Thomas Cazenave. The left have rallied around the Green Pierre Hurmic (EELV, PS, PCF). The former PS candidate Vincent Feltesse tried to be a candidate but dropped out after a series of bad polls. The insoumis have given their support to former presidential trotskyst candidate Philippe Poutou (NPA). There is also a RN list. Two polls in mid-february: one gave Florian at 34 and Hurmic at 33 with Cazenave at 16, Poutou 9 and RN at 5. The other gave Florian a bigger lead at 40, Hurmic 30, Poutou ahead of Cazenave at 12 and 11 with RN still at 5. Poutou will not merge with the Green candidate. Florian might merge with Cazenave (or Cazenave might be below 10 and unable to maintain his candidacy) so Florian is a favorite in a city that could be won by the left.

Now the cities that were lost by the left in 2014:

- Argenteuil (Val-d'Oise, 95): Georges Mothron (LR) won the city by less than 200 votes last time from Philippe Doucet (PS). The two are candidates again. PCF (who held the mayorship for a long time), Insoumis and trotskyst support the communautarist Omar Slaouti with as the second an Insoumise who called for a "blank vote" in the législative election between Doucet (PS) and the En Marche candidate. No chance of a merger here. En Marche first gave their support to Olivia Fillette, and then retracted and gave it to the runner up Dalila Kaabeche. Both are candidates. A former MEP for the Greens who left the party Alima Boumedienne-Thiery is also candidate. I think she is supported by the greens but I'm not sure. With a left this divided, Mothron should hold.

- Reims (Marne, 51): Arnaud Robinet (LR) took back the city against Adeline Hazan (PS), after the second full-term of a left mayor since the second world war. The PS have fielded her former 1st deputy, Eric Quénard, and he has also garnered support from the PCF. There's a Green party list by Léo Tyburce and an Insoumis list by Laure Manesse. LREM have fielded Gérard Chemla and there's also a RN list. Robinet should hold in this historically right-wing city.

- Saint-Etienne (Loire, 42): The city of the "Verts" for football amateurs, has the same profile as Reims in terms of number of full-terms to the left. But this is a much more working class city. Gaël Perdriau (LR) took back the city from Maurice Vincent (PS) in 2014. The PS have fielded Régis Courbon, a close ally to MP Régis Juanico (who left the PS for the Benoît Hamon party Générations), and he is supported by the PCF. There's an Insoumis list with Andrée Taurinya and a Green party list headed by Olivier Longeon. LREM have fielded a former Saint-Etienne footballer Patrick Revelli. There is also a RN list.

There was a mid-february poll with Perdriau at 42, Courbon at 17, Lorgeon 14, RN at 16, insoumis at 6 and Rivelli at 4. Perdriau should not have much trouble this time.

- Tours (Indre-et-Loire, 37): a more left-wing city, Tours was held by PS Jean Germain from 1995 to 2014. He was accused in a case of "chinese romantic weddings" sold to chinese couples by someone working for the local government and also heading the private company getting paid. She was convicted. This "affaire" started in 2011, and Jean Germain, after his loss, committed suicide the morning of his trial, saying he couldn't suffer any more accusations against him. The newly elected mayor Serge Barbery became a senator in 2017 and decided not to be mayor anymore (from 2017 and on, members of parliament cannot be part of a local governement executive - mayor, deputy mayor, president or vp of département or région). His majority was in turmoil in the following years. Christophe Bouchet is member of the Mouvement Radical. He wanted to have support from LREM but locally, LREM is comprised of a lot of old socialists. So Benoist Pierre was fielded by En Marche. On the left, the Greens are heading a large alliance with Emmanuel Denis (EELV, PS, PCF, Insoumis). But there are Insoumis dissident supporting NPAClaude Bourdin and a dissident PS Mickael Cortot. There's a LR dissident Xavier Dateu and a RN list.

A mid-february poll gave Green Denis 33% and Bouchet 29%, with LREM Pierre at 12, RN at 9, Dateu at 7 and others at less than 5. I think the left have a good shot at taking back the city.

- Limoges (Haute-Vienne, 87): the loss of Limoges was historical for the PS: they held it since 1956 (and the left ince 1912 at least) ! Emile-Roger Lombertie, the LR mayor is candidate. Monique Boulestin, former PS MP who was excluded in 2012 after failing to win an election against the PS supported candidate is now the candidate for LREM. PS have fielded Thierry Miguel, also supported by PCF and a local left-wing movement. The greens have fielded Bernard Drobenko and the insoumis Danielle Soury. RN couldn't achieve fielding a complete list. No polls are available but I think Miguel has a shot to take back the city.

And that's the end of 100,000+ inhabitants cities !

[finsobruce]

This is all fascinating stuff relique. Well done and many thanks.

[seanryanj]

Mar 2, 2020 16:29:26 GMT finsobruce said:

This is all fascinating stuff relique. Well done and many thanks.

Here here!!

[relique]

You're welcome ! I needed to do that anyway, so I thought here would be the most useful place to post it. It allowed me to do my personal predictions as well !

[neilm]

My stepmother is running for election in their commune, Juvigny les Vallees (Manche). They live in the 'seat', Juvigny-le-Tertre.

Key issues appear to be local tax reform, pushed through by Hollande, that has deprived town halls of income and meddling by the prefecture in what they do with land owned by the commune.

[relique]

Mar 3, 2020 7:13:44 GMT neilm said:

My stepmother is running for election in their commune, Juvigny les Vallees (Manche). They live in the 'seat', Juvigny-le-Tertre.

Key issues appear to be local tax reform, pushed through by Hollande, that has deprived town halls of income and meddling by the prefecture in what they do with land owned by the commune.

Well yeah, successive governments have got rid of the taxe professionnelle (Sarkozy), and the Macron government are step-by-step getting rid of the taxe d'habitation. I'm afraid I don't know to which tax is the reference from Hollande... It is a campaign promise of Macron to get rid of taxe d'habitation.

But yeah, this means that local government have less and less freedom in terms of tax & spending, and are more and more dependent on what the state government gives them. And the state tends to reduce this so the local government is forced to stop investments, which of course impact the local economy...

[london(ex)tory]

We’re in France at the moment, the election in our village is being contested between three local lists, at least some of which appear to already be represented on the council. The outgoing mayor is seeking re-election as councillor but not mayor on a “keep doing what we’re doing”-type platform whereas the other two lists are to varying degrees talking about change. One of the key figures in one of them is the local pharmacist who is already on the council (and indeed topped the poll last time).

It’s interesting to observe an election contested by clear slates but without necessarily being rooted in any kind of ideological tradition but not something I would want to see back home. Shame we’re not here next week for polling day!

[relique]

Mar 8, 2020 13:06:06 GMT london(ex)tory said:

We’re in France at the moment, the election in our village is being contested between three local lists, at least some of which appear to already be represented on the council. The outgoing mayor is seeking re-election as councillor but not mayor on a “keep doing what we’re doing”-type platform whereas the other two lists are to varying degrees talking about change. One of the key figures in one of them is the local pharmacist who is already on the council (and indeed topped the poll last time).

It’s interesting to observe an election contested by clear slates but without necessarily being rooted in any kind of ideological tradition but not something I would want to see back home. Shame we’re not here next week for polling day!

If he "topped the poll", does it mean it is a city with fewer than 1,000 inhabitants ? And therefore three lists is quite many !

[london(ex)tory]

Mar 8, 2020 13:20:22 GMT relique said:

Mar 8, 2020 13:06:06 GMT london(ex)tory said:

We’re in France at the moment, the election in our village is being contested between three local lists, at least some of which appear to already be represented on the council. The outgoing mayor is seeking re-election as councillor but not mayor on a “keep doing what we’re doing”-type platform whereas the other two lists are to varying degrees talking about change. One of the key figures in one of them is the local pharmacist who is already on the council (and indeed topped the poll last time).

It’s interesting to observe an election contested by clear slates but without necessarily being rooted in any kind of ideological tradition but not something I would want to see back home. Shame we’re not here next week for polling day!

If he "topped the poll", does it mean it is a city with fewer than 1,000 inhabitants ? And therefore three lists is quite many !

Yes it’s a small village and he got 325 votes last time.

[neilm]

Mar 3, 2020 7:34:42 GMT relique said:

Mar 3, 2020 7:13:44 GMT neilm said:

My stepmother is running for election in their commune, Juvigny les Vallees (Manche). They live in the 'seat', Juvigny-le-Tertre.

Key issues appear to be local tax reform, pushed through by Hollande, that has deprived town halls of income and meddling by the prefecture in what they do with land owned by the commune.

Well yeah, successive governments have got rid of the taxe professionnelle (Sarkozy), and the Macron government are step-by-step getting rid of the taxe d'habitation. I'm afraid I don't know to which tax is the reference from Hollande... It is a campaign promise of Macron to get rid of taxe d'habitation.

But yeah, this means that local government have less and less freedom in terms of tax & spending, and are more and more dependent on what the state government gives them. And the state tends to reduce this so the local government is forced to stop investments, which of course impact the local economy...

I've clarified and apparently it was Sarkozy rather than Hollande. My stepmother explained to me in English about the tax reform but I heard "the previous/former president" in the French part of the discussion. As there had been some moaning about Flanby I just assumed it was him.

WRT pharmacists, French ones are able to identify edible mushrooms and apparently get asked on a regular basis in rural areas.

[neilm]

Mar 8, 2020 13:45:49 GMT london(ex)tory said:

Mar 8, 2020 13:20:22 GMT relique said:

If he "topped the poll", does it mean it is a city with fewer than 1,000 inhabitants ? And therefore three lists is quite many !

Yes it’s a small village and he got 325 votes last time.

Has the village been merged into a larger commune? That seems to be a cause of annoyance to some.

[relique]

Macron will talk in an hour. I am at the last rally of Martine Aubry in Lille and every one is sharing a rumour of a one year delay of local élections.

This will anger every one

[relique]

Participation at 12:00 (after 4 hours of voting; polls close at 18, 19 or 20 depending on the city - only big cities go beyond 18)

In green, higher participation than 2014, in left lower by at least 8 points.

Nico on politiquemania.com said:

Liste complète et définitive
En vert, participation en hausse, en rouge participation en baisse à plus de -8 points :

01 - Ain : 20,97% (-4,95)
02 - Aisne : 15,65% (-2,94)
03 - Allier : 25,35% (-0,67)
04 - Alpes-de-Haute-Provence : 20,42% (-11,55)
05 - Hautes-Alpes : 17,86% (-7,22)
06 - Alpes-Maritimes : 13,87% (-10,71)
07 - Ardèche : 27,27% (-7,58)
08 - Ardennes : 23,60% (+0,54)
09 - Ariège : 22,19% (-7,32)
10 - Aube : 20,10% (1,09)
11 - Aude : 22,11% (-2,10)
12 - Aveyron : 29,29% (+7,23)
13 - Bouches-du-Rhône : 15,72% (-7,45)
14 - Calvados : 15,55% (-7,56)
15 - Cantal : 30,21% (-3,49)
16 - Charente : 18,55% (-11,36)
17 - Charente-Maritime : 20,72% (-4,37)
18 - Cher : 25,24% (-2,07)
19 - Corrèze : 21,51% (-6,96)
2A - Corse-du-Sud : 25,22% (-4,08)
2B - Haute-Corse : 34,51% (+2,13)
21 - Côte-d'Or : 19,25% (-1,77)
22 - Côtes-d'Armor : 22,53% (+1,13)
23 - Creuse : 25,72% (-5,68)
24 - Dordogne : 20,43% (-9,86)
25 - Doubs : 21,75% (+4,58)
26 - Drôme : 18,06% (-9,00)
27 - Eure : 18,73% (-7,66)
28 - Eure-et-Loir : 16,90% (-3,32)
29 - Finistère : 17,76% (-2,48)
30 - Gard : 21,54% (-5,03)
31 - Haute-Garonne : 16,29% (-5,16)
32 - Gers : 28,53% (-4,46)
33 - Gironde : 17,01% (-3,94)
34 - Hérault : 21,71% (-3,84)
35 - Ille-et-Vilaine : 15,80% (-5,42)
36 - Indre : 27,74% (+1,81)
37 - Indre-et-Loire : 17,44% (-4,06)
38 - Isère : 17,63% (-11,00)
39 - Jura : 19,38% (-4,68)
40 - Landes : 27,38% (-5,67)
41 - Loir-et-Cher : 22,71% (+2,52)
42 - Loire : 14,88% (-13,20)
43 - Haute-Loire : 21,43% (-11,24)
44 - Loire-Atlantique : 16,42% (-5,71)
45 - Loiret : 18,72% (-6,74)
46 - Lot : 25,34% (-8,01)
47 - Lot-et-Garonne : 21,30% (-8,09)
48 - Lozère : 23,80% (-8,92)
49 - Maine-et-Loire : 19,20% (-2,94)
50 - Manche : 17,75% (-1,98)
51 - Marne : 14,61% (-5,90)
52 - Haute-Marne : 22,37% (-2,72)
53 - Mayenne : 20,71% (-2,78)
54 - Meurthe-et-Moselle : 18,58% (+0,73)
55 - Meuse : 21,00% (-7,16)
56 - Morbihan : 19,64% (-2,54)
57 - Moselle : 18,63% (-1,13)
58 - Nièvre : 25,07% (-0,59)
59 - Nord : 19,16% (-4,57)
60 - Oise : 18,47% (-9,48)
61 - Orne : 18,31% (-10,24)
62 - Pas-de-Calais : 21,37% (-1,16)
63 - Puy-de-Dôme : 17,34% (-9,15)
64 - Pyrénées-Atlantiques : 26,40% (-0,78)
65 - Hautes-Pyrénées : 23,76% (-3,10)
66 - Pyrénées-Orientales : 20,71% (-7,08)
67 - Bas-Rhin : 16,93% (-2,51)
68 - Haut-Rhin : 16,90% (-5,33)
69 - Rhône : 16,60% (-8,92)
70 - Haute-Saône : 19,22% (-1,93)
71 - Saône-et-Loire : 18,45% (-10,06)
72 - Sarthe : 18,81% (-10,33)
73 - Savoie : 22,61% (-2,75)
74 - Haute-Savoie : 15,41% (-6,66)
75 - Paris : 12,61% (-1,12)
76 - Seine-Maritime : 22,74% (+4,40)
77 - Seine-et-Marne : 18,62% (-3,19)
78 - Yvelines : 15,07% (-1,50)
79 - Deux-Sèvres : 19,37% (-5,82)
80 - Somme : 23,88% (-0,76)
81 - Tarn : 22,41% (-8,40)
82 - Tarn-et-Garonne : 21,70% (-7,52)
83 - Var : 20,11% (-4,96)
84 - Vaucluse : 15,83% (-16,35)
85 - Vendée : 16,92% (-11,87)
86 - Vienne : 22,72% (+3,61)
87 - Haute-Vienne : 21,62% (-3,75)
88 - Vosges : 25,17% (-0,98)
89 - Yonne : 24,37% (-5,16)
90 - Territoire de Belfort : 14,04% (-12,12)
91 - Essonne : 11,55% (-9,22)
92 - Hauts-de-Seine : 15,89% (+1,65)
93 - Seine-Saint-Denis : 11,75% (-0,57)
94 - Val-de-Marne : 11,61% (-2,61)
95 - Val-d'Oise : 12,86% (-3,72)

[Devil Wincarnate]

Liveblog from Le Figaro.
www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2020/03/15/01002-20200315LIVWWW00003-municipales-2020-coronavirus-resultats-abstention-participation.php