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Post by relique on Jun 26, 2020 8:13:04 GMT
New category today
Cities with (right-wing) incumbent mayors allied with En Marche:
- Amiens (Somme, 80): The UDI (center-right, officially but that's debatable) new mayor gained the city from the left in 2014 allied with UMP/LR. Brigitte Fouré has since said a lot of praise for the government and is also supported by LREM this time.
In 2017 there was a new MP for the Amiens-Abbeville constituency: François Ruffin, a french activist and journalist who published "Fakir", who directed "Merci Patron", a documentary about offshoring and corruption practices in big very profitable companies (especially LVMH) and the impact in cities from north of France. In 2017 he was supported by a lot of left-wing parties (the insoumis finally supported him but they were not happy about it because he would not commit to their program) and gained the seat. He now is more or less part of the Insoumis movement but is seen as an "électron libre". For the local election, his local movement (Picardie Debout!) is fielding Julien Pradat, who, in the end, is supported by most parties on the left (FI, PCF, PS, EELV). However, dissident insoumis have fielded Cédric Maisse.
The other Amiens-based mp is former Green party Barbara Pompili, elected first with the support of PS in 2012 and then with the support of LREM. Her companion Christophe Porquier, also former Green, is a dissident candidate from LREM, supported by their own small party, a scission of the greens. There is also another dissident LREM list from the president of the local chamber for trade and industry Fany Ruin and a list by a former deputy mayor of Brigitte Fouré, Renaud Deschamps.
A poll was conducted a month ago. Fourré was ahead with 34%, with Pradat on 24%, RN at 12, Insoumis, Porquier and Deschamps at 6-7 and all others at less than 3%. In a potential second run, Fourré would get 46% and Pradat 40%.
- Caen (Calvados, 14): the city was gained by the right-wing UMP Joël Bruneau from the left in 2014. He is candidate again and has included people from LREM in his list. There's no LREM list against him. On the left, the greens are allied with PCF with Rudy L'Orphelin, while PS have fielded Gilles Déterville. There's an Insoumis, another left-wing and a RN list as well. The only poll was quite long ago, in august. It's therefore not that significant, candidates are not the right ones etc... Bruneau was at a very healthy 45%, L'Orphelin at 23 and Déterville at 14. Another left (but not the right one) was given at 7 with the RN at 8. The city might be taken back from the left if one list is clearly ahead and Bruneau below 40%.
- Saint-Paul (La Réunion, 974): the city was gained by the right-wing UMP Joseph Sinimalé in 2014 from the very left MP Huguette Bello (former PCR, has her own local movement and is sitting in the communist-and over-sees mp group). The two are candidates again. Sinimalé is allied with LREM. Another mayor, Alain Bénard, UMP mayor between 1995 and 2008 and beaten by Bello, is candidate as well as an independent.
There was a poll released today for the local news, with Bello at 47% and the two former right-wing mayors at 14. Given the social climate in La Réunion, that's not such a weird result but still it's quite a result !! In 2017, in a constituency including 3 of the 5 cantons of Saint-Paul and other cities, Bello did get 57% at the first run (but had to run in a second round because of low voter participation; you need a majority of 50%+1 but also 25% of registered voters to be elected in the first run) so that's not such a stretch. But the poll was conducted by a local company that I don't know so we should be circumspect.
- Toulouse (Haute-Garonne, 31): Fourth and final city of this category with a right wing mayor who's beaten a left-wing incumbent in 2014. Jean-Luc Moudenc was a former right wing mayor beaten in 2008. He has included in his list members of LREM and is supported by LREM. On the left there was an attempt to unite left parties with "Archipel Citoyen". It's the green Antoine Maurice who is leading the list, but there were rumbles among people from it and some have left since then; PS and PCF support socialist Nadia Pellefigure while the former PS mayor Pierre Cohen, now a member of the Benoît Hamon movement Générations, is also leading a list. A centrist (Modem) deputy mayor Franck Biasotto is also heading a list, as well as the RN.
There was a poll disclosed a couple of weeks ago. Moudenc was at 41%, Maurice at 24, Pellefigue at 14 and Cohen at 7,5. RN at 7 and all others at 2% or less. The division of the left might prevent them from taking back the city.
- Nice (Alpes-Maritimes, 06): Christian Estrosi, the LR mayor has always had positive relationships with LREM. He is supported by both LR and LREM this time (which is important because LR could have fielded someone against him). In a very right-wing city, the left have put forward three lists: Governatori supported by greens and other ecologist movements is a center-right ecologist; Allemand is supported by the PS and Damiano by PCF and Insoumis. They could succeed in all doing less than 10% and being unable to participate to the second run. They might be saved by an Estrosi victory in the first run, because it would mean all lists over 5% can have councillors (if there's a second run, only list over 10% can qualify; if no left-wing list can qualify, they would get 0 councillor). A former very conservative deputy-mayor Colonel Benoît kandel is candidate, as well as the RN Vardon. A poll conducted a few weeks ago put Estrosi at 49, Governatori at 14, Damiano at 8 and Lallemand at 6. Kandel was at 6 and RN at 13.
Edit: I thought Annecy had an LREM list but it's a dissident.
- Annecy (Haute-Savoie, 74): So the LR mayor Jean-Luc Rigaut is supported by LREM. A LREM MP, Frédérique Lardet is candidate as a dissident. On the left, the former head of the PS-PCF list Denis Duperthuy is an independent candidate and one of his running mate François Astorg is candidate with the support of PS, PCF and the Greens. There is also a RN list. In the current context, I think there shouldn't be any tight contest here...
Not that good results in this category.
Only in Caen was the LR incumbent mayor Bruneau reelected with an alliance with LREM. But it was quite tight. He got 50,79% of votes, ahead of Greens at 26%, PS at 9%, an other left at 5%, RN at 5% and Insoumis at 3%. A united left might have appeared to the left electorate more likely to win, and they would probably have had more support.
Even in Nice, Christian Estrosi needs a second round, he only got 48%, 3 points more than 2014 when there was a far-right list at 10 and the FN at 16 (and the former right wing mayor at 3%). Now the RN got 17%, the greens 11, PCF 9%, PS 7%. PS-Greens were at 15% last time and PCF at 5%. There was another right-wing list at 7%
In the very right-wing Annecy (there was a socialist mayor during one year after the second WW) as well the incumbent needs a second round. Rigaut only got 28,39% of the votes, 150 ahead of the united left candidat Astorg at 27,87%. The dissident candidate is at 22%, and de former PS Duperthuy at 10%. RN is at 9%. It will all depend on who stays divided and who does unite !
In Amiens, the center-right mayor is not in a very good position. She got 30%, ahead of the united left at 26%. Her former deputy Deschamps is at 11%, and a LREM dissident at just less than 10%. The former greens turned LREM now dissident Porquer is also just short of 10%, while the RN did only 8%. The dissident insoumis Maisse is only at 4%. The left seem to have very few votes available to pull off an upset, but since the second round will be in june, who knows ? There was only 32% of people going to the polls in this region close to the Oise cluster.
In Toulouse, Moudenc (LR-LREM) is an even more troubled position. He got 36% which is not that bad, but two left lists are not that far. Greens' Maurice got 28%, PS' Pellefigue 19% with a third list by former PS mayor (now Générations, the Hamon party) Cohen at 6%. RN is only at 4% and other lists at 1 or lower than 1%. The left will probably unite, and win back the city.
In Saint-Paul in La Réunion, the MP (caucusing with the communists) Huguette Bello didn't manage as good a result as in the poll, but with 37%, she's still a favourite. The two former mayors did 20 and 15%, the more recent one, Sinimale, getting ahead of the old one. All the other lists are below 10% only one getting more than 5%. Unless there's a very big dynamic for the right and a happy merger, Bello should retake the city safely.
In Amiens, no merger was done. It's a three-way race between macronist mayor Brigitte Fouré, the united left candidate and one of Fouré's deputy. A recent poll put Fouré at 43%, united left at 39% and the deputy at 18%. Could be close !
In Nice, Estrosi is almost assured to get reelected. The Greens' list voted and they all refused a merger with the two left-wing lists that were eliminated (but could merge).
In Annecy there could be a historic win for the left. The united left candidate, green Astorg has merged with the dissident LREM that took 22% of the vote. That puts them at a theoretical 48% in a three-way race between incumbent right-wing mayor supported by LREM Rigaut (28%) and a dissident left candidate Duperthuy (10%) who tried but failed merging with the incumbent mayor (yes, the two possible mergers were left-right and left-right instead of left-left right-right !). It's also possible that the dissident LREM voters are not willing to vote for the left. Who knows ?
In Toulouse the three left-wing lists have merged (they totaled 53% in the first run) but it was a bit of a chaos. The Greens refused to have the leaders of the competitors' lists in the merged one. They didn't want her to claim the presidency of the metropolitan area (neighbouring cities being more socialist than green), because they don't want a socialist from Toulouse being the head of the metropolitan area. It went so bad that quite a few old PS leaders are supporting the right-wing incumbent Moudenc (including the number 2 of the PS list). A poll gave 51% for the united left and 49% for Moudenc. It will be a close one !
In Saint-Paul, the three right wing lists above 5% merged, the incumbent mayor being candidate for the metropolitan area and the former mayor for the mayorship. The three lists totaled 40%. Some candidates below 5% support the left Huguette Bello. It might be close as well.
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Post by relique on Jun 26, 2020 8:37:28 GMT
Now, I will be a bit quicker on the next two categories because the fields are less open and the reelection of the incumbents far more likely.
Cities with left-wing incumbents against LREM lists:
First, you need to know that the greens have had big ambitions since the european election. They thought they might beat incumbent socialists because of their poor showing both in presidential and european elections. The polls have all showed that despite a bit of a green wave, incumbents socialists mayor are quite well-liked and have big support. So I will just give you cities in this case (with low suspense) with the latest poll if there is one:
- Lille (Nord, 59): Martine Aubry (PS) was supposed to retire but she has failed to find herself a successor. In the latest february poll she's given at 35% (in an alliance with PCF), with 21% for the Greens' Baly, 14 for Spillebout (LREM, former staffer of Aubry), 12 for RN, 10 for Daubresse (LR, former mayor of Lambersart) and 7,5 for Poix (Insoumis).
- Nantes (Loire-Atlantique, 44): Johanna Rolland (PS) is in a similar situation. The latest poll, however was done in June 2019. She was at 33%, the Greens at 23%, LR 15%, LREM 14%, RN 8% and Insoumis at 6%.
- Rennes (Île-et-Villaine, 35): Nathalie Appéré (PS) as well with an alliance with PCF. No poll available.
- Brest (Finistère, 29): François Cuillande (PS) in the same position, without any poll available.
- Dijon (Côte-d'Or, 21): François Rebsamen, the very centrist PS, still faces a LREM list. A february poll put him at 38, Greens at 20, LR at 16 ,FN at 9, LREM and Insoumis at 6 and a dissident Green at 5.
- Clermont-Ferrand (Puy-de-Dôme, 63): Olivier Bianchi (PS) has a larger alliance with support from the PCF and the Greens. In a january poll, he was given at 45%, with LR at 21%, LREM at 10% and Modem at 6% (Modem candidate has dropped out and supports LREM now), RN at 9 and Insoumis at 8.
- Le Mans (Sarthe, 72): After the death of Jean-Claude Boulard, it's the PS MP Stéphane Le Foll who became mayor in 2018. The other PS MP Marietta Karamanli is fielding a dissident list. There's an official and dissident LREM lists as well and an official and dissident LR list ! On the left, the Greens have fielded Isabelle Sévère, Insoumis and PCF Marie James. This election is a bit more uncertain than the ones above. I think LREM and the right will be quite behind, but I don't know what could be the results for Le Foll, Karamanli and the greens (and who might merge with whom ! ). Le Foll was elected MP without an En Marche candidate against him while Karamanli was elected against an En Marche candidate. I'm not sure who of the two socialists have the better relationship with the greens' candidate...
- Paris (Paris, 75): That's the most talked about election so I won't do a lot about it. Griveaux dropping out was the best news for En Marche and LR. He was a toxic candidate. Hidalgo (PS) seemed poised to keep the city with a merger with the greens for the second run. Since Griveaux dropped out, some green (and Villani) voters seem to go back to En Marche while right-wing voters for Griveaux seem to go back to Dati. It will all depend on the mergers between the first and the second run in key arrondissements.
In Lille, Aubry (PS) pulled ahead of the greens' Baly with 30% against 25%. LREM's Spillebout (former head of Aubry's cabinet) got 17,5%. Just below 10%, we find Insoumis' Poix at 9%, LR's senator Daubresse at 8% and RN at 7%. On the night of the election, Spillebout asked the greens for an alliance against Aubry. This will probably not happen though (even though I don't find the local greens very reputable, and think they could do anything to be mayor, so who knows).
In Nantes, Rolland (PS) is also ahead with 31%, with LR at 20%, Greens at 19,5% and LREM at 13%. Insoumis at 9% and RN just short of 5%. She's in an even better position than Aubry.
In Rennes, Appéré (PS) got 33% and Greens 25%. LREM got 14% and right-wing Compagnon 12%. Insoumis got 7,5% and RN 4%.
In Brest, Cuillandre (PS) was a bit lower at 27%, ahead of the right Malgorn at 19% and Greens at 16%. LREM got 13%. The president of the local university got 9% and Insoumis and RN 7%. A PS-Greens merger should guarantee them to keep the city.
In Clermont-Ferrand, Bianchi (PS supported by Greens and PCF) got 38%, LR 21%, LREM 16% and Insoumis 12%. Another left wing list is at 6% and RN at 5%.
Rebsamen (PS) in Dijon also got 38%, ahead of LR at 20%, Greens at 15%, LREM at 9%, RN at 7%, Insoumis at 6% and dissident Green at 4.
Very weird result in Le Mans. Stéphane Le Foll for the PS got 42% of the vote while the other Le Mans PS MP Marietta Karamanli got 13%. They are the only ones qualified, the greens doing 9,98%, LR 8,5%, LREM 7%, RN 6% and Insoumis 5%.
Overall in Paris, Hidalgo (PS) did a solid 29%, ahead of Dati (LR) at 23%, Buzyn (LREM) at 17%, Greens' Belliard at 11% and dissident LREM MP Villani at only 8%. Insoumis Simmonet got less than 5% overall.
There's one arrondissement with the final results: Dati (LR) managed to win in the first round in her 7ème arrondissement. With 50% ahead of LREM at 23% and PS at 11%, she wins the 4 Paris councillors, which is the same result as in 2014 (in the 2nd round last time). LR lists seem poised to win as well the 6ème, 8ème, 16ème and 17ème. In 6 and 8, they will get as many Paris councillors (3) as last time. In the 16ème, they will probably lose one or two to LREM, the PS losing 1 (they didn't qualify) to LREM as well. In the 17ème, LR will probably lose 1 to Buzyn herself, and the PS lose also 1 of their two seats to LREM as well. So compared to 2014, in those right-wing arrondissements, there might be: LR -2/-3, PS -2, LREM +4/+5.
The left are poised to win 10ème, 11ème, 13ème, 18ème, 19ème and 20ème arrondissements, whatever a potential alliance between LR and LREM. If there's no alliance between LR and LREM, the left will get 1 more seat in 10ème and 11ème (LREM will probably get 1 from LR there as well). The right will lose 1 seat to LREM or the left in 13ème as well, 2 seats in 18ème to LREM and maybe 1 to the left, 1 seat in 19ème to LREM or the left, 1 seat to LREM in 20ème and Insoumis Simmonet might lose hers to PS-Greens.
In thos left-wing arrondissement, there might be: PS-EELV: +2/+6, Insoumis =/-1, LREM +3/+6, LR -7/-9
The left are well-placed in many "swing" arrondissements. In first sector (1er to 4ème arrondissement), PS is at 34%, LREM 21%, LR 20%, Greens 10%, Villani's list at 8%, Insoumis at 2%. The left, after merger, should win it. If LR/LREM merge, it might be tight, but I think the left will get it and 6-7 Paris councillors to 1 for LREM and 0-1 to LR (there were . In 12ème arrondissement, PS 1st deputy is at 33%, LR at 23%, LREM 17%, Greens at 12% and Villani's list 8%. LFI cannot merge, just below 5%. Same deal but with LR better placed than LREM. Out of the 10 councillors, the left should keep the 8, LR losing 1 to LREM. In 14ème, PS' Petit is at 33%, LR 20%, LREM 16%, Villani himself at 12% can maintain his list, and the Greens have 11%. Insoumis (with a anti-specist head of list) got only 3%. The left will keep their 8 Paris councillors, LR losing 1 to LREM (but Villani unable to get one in my opinion, unless he gets top position in a merger with LREM provided all his other lists support LREM).
In those three "swing" arrondissements, left should have =/+1, LR -3/-4, LREM +3.
Then, there are three right-wing arrondissement where mayors were not fans of Dati. In 5ème arrondissement, Berthout is a candidate for LREM, she got 28%, ahead of PS at 25%, LR at 17%, Greens at 11% and Villani's list 8%. Insoumis at 3% cannot merge. If LR and LREM are divided, PS might pull an upset and win it. If they merge, Berthout is sure to be reelected. Without a merger, it will either be 3 PS/1 LREM or 3 LREM/1 PS; with a merger, it will be 2LREM+1LR /1PS. In 9ème arrondissement, Burkli is also candidate for LREM. She got 37%, with PS at 25%, LR at 16%, Greens just below 10% and Villani's list at 7%. Burkli will be reelected with or without a merger with LR. Without a merger, she'll get 3 Paris councillors to the left 1. With a merger, the left would still keep 1 seat but LREM might give LR 1 seat. Finally, in 15ème arrondissement, Goujon is a dissident LR. He got 21%, below the LR official candidat Evren at 23%, with PS at 20%, LREM at 17%, Greens at 8% and Villani's list at 7%. I have no idea who will merge with whom on the right. If they all maintain themselves, the left could win it !! It would be quite huge ! There are 18 Paris councillors. If the left pulls a victory with 30%, they'll get 12-13 seats, with LR 2-3, Goujon 2 and LREM 1-2. An Alliance between two out of the three right-wing lists will guarantee victory if the electors follow. The merged list would get 13-14 seats, the left 3, and the other right-wing list 1-2.
So without the 15ème arrondissement, the total Paris councillors numbers might be:
Left (PS+Greens): 88/95 (=/+7) LR: 34/40 (-22/-17) LREM: 13/20 (+13/+20) LFI: 0/1 (-1/=)
So out of 163 paris councillors, no matter what happens in 15ème arrondissement, Hidalgo should be mayor. With the 15ème arrondissement, we could have
Left (PS+Greens): 91/108 (=/+17) LR: 36/48 (-35/-23) LREM: 14/26 (+14/+26) Goujon: 2/8 (+2/+8) LFI: 0/1 (-1/=)
Hidalgo should have as many seats as in 2014, and maybe more. LR will stay the main opposition.
In the three western cities Brest, Rennes and Nantes (and someone could argue the three cities from continental brittany), the PS incumbents have merged with the Greens, putting them virtually unbeatable. In each city, LR and LREM didn't merge and it will be three way races.
In Dijon and Lille both socialist incumbents have not merged with the Greens. In Dijon, it might not be so important, Rebsamen being quite far from his opponents. LREM failed to qualify and didn't merge. The head of the list has said he will vote for LR. In Lille, it will be closer between former minister Martine Aubry (and socialist leader between 2008 and 2011) and her Green deputy Stéphane Baly. The third, LREM Spillebout (former head of cabinet of Aubry) is still in the running. But here, most right-wing leaders (president of the Département Jean-René Lecerf, right-wing leader in the council Thierry Pauchet etc..) have called their supporter to vote for Aubry, against the Greens. The two polls gave Aubry a win by only 2-3 points. It might be close.
In Clermont-Ferrand, the LR and LREM lists have merged, and there will be a three way race between incumbent mayor Bianchi, the LR-LREM list and the Insoumis list. The LREM local federation has condemned the merger with LR, saying people should vote "blank" (a way in France to not vote for anyone) or to "faire barrage" to the LR-LREM list (build a dam against), a very fashioned expression that used to be reserved for FN-RN. Who knows what will happen on sunday ? On paper, the right-wing lists have a shot at the mayorship, since the left is divided.
In Le Mans, PS Le Foll has merged with eliminated Greens. But some greens have quit their party to call for a vote for dissident PS Karamanli. Le Foll should win it easily against his former parliament colleague (they were the two elected PS members of parliament for the Sarthe département in 2017; Le Foll had to quit to become mayor).
In Paris, not a lot of surprises. Hidalgo should win easily enough. There are a few scandals against LREM, with suspicion against MP Avia that she (illegaly) used her parliamentary office to campaign (since in this arrondissement, LREM has merged with the dissident pro-Villani, they put Avia at the last position, unelectable, since the accusations of harassment by close to ten of her former parliamentary assistants).
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Post by relique on Jun 26, 2020 10:20:36 GMT
Cities with left-wing incumbents against LREM lists:
Now, cities with not-PS mayors: - Saint-Denis (Seine-Saint-Denis, 93): the new communist mayor Laurent Russier is allied with the greens. Didier Paillard, former PCF mayor gave away his position in 2016. The former MP PS Mathieu Hanotin had a lot of ambition in this city but his failure in 2014 (50,5/49,5 for Paillard in the second run) and the loss in the 2017 législatives probably means he will not win in Saint-Denis again. Like every-where in the "banlieue rouge" of Paris, Insoumis had also a lot of ambitions. One constituency went to Insoumis Coquerel in 2017 while the other (Hanotin's) went to PCF (with support from Insoumis) Stéphane Peu. Insoumis have fielded Bally Bagayoko. The former socialist opponent to Paillard, Georges Sali is again an independent-left candidate. There's a LREM-UDI candidate, Alexandre Aïdara, and a dissident UDI Houari guermat. UDI's president, mayor of Drancy, is often accused of using islamist networks in Seine-Saint Denis to win cities against communist -in Bobigny for example.
I think Russier will be reelected.
- Montreuil (Seine-Saint-Denis, 93): the communist mayor Patrice Bessac is here supported also by the PS and the Insoumis. In 2008, Dominique Voynet (former presidential candidate for the Greens) benefitted from heavy right-wing transfers to beat communist long-time mayor Jean-Pierre Brard. Brard had since then left the PCF and was an independent candidate in 2014. Voynet was not candidate. Bessac was ahead of the three PCF, EELV and PS lists and there was a merger to beat Brard who was ahead of the field. EELV have fielded Mireille Alphonse. There is a LR-LREM list. In a poll two weeks ago (but with a RN list which was not fielded), Bessac was awarded 48%, Alphone 20% LR-LREM 11% and other lists less than 10. He is a clear favourite.
- Grenoble (Isère, 38): Eric Piolle (EELV) was elected in 2014 when the incumbent PS mayor retired. He now has a bigger coalition, rallying the PCF, Insoumis and a lot of new small left-wing parties. The PS fielded a new candidate Olivier Noblecourt. A former right-wing mayor Alain Carignon, convicted of 4 years of prison in 1994 in a corruption charge, is candidate and supported by LR. The LREM MP Emilie Chalas is candidate for her party. There is an ex-FN candidate, Mirelle D'Ornano, but no RN (she kept a lot of people with her after leaving the party and they couldn't field a whole list). Dissident insoumis have also fielded a candidate.
There is a february poll with Piolle at 36, Carignon at 20, Noblecourt at 19, Chalas at 16 and others at less than 5. He is a clear favourite but if he were at less than 35 and Noblecourt at 25, a PS-LREM alliance could unseat him. I don't know if that's likely, though...
- Montpellier (Héraut, 34): Philippe Saurel (former PS, close to Manuel Valls) won the city from the PS in 2014. He could have been close to LREM but locally, LREM is managed by socialists he's beaten in 2014. So Patrick Vignal, former campaign manager of the PS 2014 candidate and MP for PS in 2012 and then LREM in 2017 is a candidate supported by En Marche. PS have fielded Mickael Delafosse, also supported by PCF. The greens have had an epic mess. They first organised an "open primary" where Clothile Ollier has beaten Jean-Louis Roumégas, the former head of the regional election list and long-time local leader. He then said she had cheated and announced he would run as an independent. Then, because Ollier got closer to the Insoumis, the green national comity have announced they did not support her anymore. She sued them and obtained, by the courts, that this removal of support was unlawful given the greens own by-laws. Now there are three green lists. And while Ollier was awarded spectacular polls, beating Saurel in the first and second run, all greens lists are far behind now.
The last poll (the only one after this mess) gave Saurel 25%, Delafosse 12, Altrad (president of the rugby club, supporter of Macron) 12, Ollier 9, Mantion (Green official) 7, Roumégas 5, Insoumis 7. A comic, Rémi Gaillard, 8%, RN 7, LR 5 and LREM Vignal 5%. A very crowded field with difficulties for every-one to merge for the second run and beat Saurel. But Saurel is still a bit vulnerable.
Next and final message for the 100,000+ inhabitants cities will be on right-wing incumbents fighting against LREM. I will also distinguish between recently conquered cities and more long-time right-wing cities.
In Saint-Denis (93), the communists are in trouble. Russier, the incumbent mayor is only second with 24%, far behind the former PS MP Hanotin at 35%. However, the third list that can qualify is the Insoumis Bagayoko at 18. If the two radical-left lists merge, Russier might be reelected. LREM is below the 10% threshold, and every other lists are below 5%.
In Montreuil, however, the communist mayor is reelected in the first round with 51%, the Greens getting 16%. LREM-LR list gets 8% and 2 seats in the council, and a dissident socialist (former deputy of Bessac) gets 7% and also 2 seats.
In Grenoble, the greens' incumbent Piolle got 47% far from the former right-wing mayor Carignon with 20%, LREM at 14% and PS at 13%. Other lists are below the 5% merger-threshold. No problem for him.
Finally, in Montpellier, it's a mess. No list got more than 20%. The incumbent very center and a bit left Saurel got 19%, the PS candidate Delafosse got 17% and the pdt of the rugby club Altrad got 13%. The comic Gaillard got just below 10% (during the night he was first announced above the qualifying threshold). Insoumis got 9%, both the official Greens Mantion and the excommunicated Green Ollier 7% (and the former Green head of the regional list just 1% which is quite fun), LREM's Vignal 6%, RN below 5% and LR below 4%. Both Delafosse and Altrad seem to hate Saurel. The question is who will gather enough support to overtake him in the second round.
In Saint-Denis, the radical-left (PCF and Insoumis) failed to merge. The Insoumis list insisted at the last minute that a candidate that was very far in their list, an incumbent councillor known for his communautarists positions (he also tweeted a lot of things kinda friendly towards some terrorists), would be well placed in the merged list. The mayor Russier refused, and the merger failed. The insoumis failed to file their list, so it will be a two way race. Some communautarist activists tried to sign a petition and protest at the communist headquarter. There were fewer than 20 people. The communautarists/clientelist networks are now put in favour of former MP Hanotin. He will probably win.
No merger in Grenoble where the PS refused the merger with LREM and incumbent Green refused the merger with PS. It will be a four-way race with the incumbent as easy favourite.
In Montpellier, a real mess. The PS candidate Delfosse merged with official Greens Mantion. He proposed a merger with the three other left-wing lists Doulain (Insoumis), Ollier (green dissident) and Gaillard (a comic), but the three lists merged with billionaire president of the rugby club former LREM Altrad. A lot of people from those three lists have condemned the merger. Theoretically they would be close to 40% but even people supporting Altrad like the right-wing senator Grand have condemned. Grand supports now Delfosse (PS) against the incumbent and Altrad. A poll was released with Delfosse at 40%, Saurel (incumbent former PS, close to LREM) 35% and Altrad at 25%. The comic Gaillard is insulting everyone, including people from his own lists (people still supporting his list and people from his list who withdrew their support who he called the "seven dwarves").
Cities with right-wing incumbents fighting against LREM candidates:
- Boulogne-Billancourt (Hauts-de-Seine, 92): Pierre-Christophe Baguet, the right-wing incumbent mayor of this very bourgeois city is candidate. There's a LREM list, a right-wing independent list (there was one in 2014), a PS, a Green and an Insoumis-PCF list. No surprise expected here. No polls as well.
- Toulon (Var, 83): Hubert Falco is the right-wing mayor since 2001. He took back the city from the FN, who conquered it in 1995, the biggest city they have ever controlled (and not a happy experience). There will be a RN list against him, an En Marche list, a united left-wing list headed by Green Guy Rebec and an independent right-wing list. I don't see any difficult challenge here for Falco who probably will be reelected in the first run.
- Aix-en-Provence (Bouches-du-Rhône, 13): Maryse Joissains-Masini (LR) was convicted to 1 year ineligibility in 2019 but she appealed and therefore can run (the appeal suspending the conviction). Against her, nearly all the left is united behind Marc Pena (PS, PCF, Insoumis and others) but Greens have fielded Dominique Sassoon. He is the "suppléant" of the LREM MP and he left the LREM list headed by the same MP, Anne-Laurence Petel. She is supported by her party. There is a former deputy-mayor, LR dissident candidate as well Jean-Marc Perrin.
The left, with the conviction of Joissains-Masini, might have had a shot. The probable alliance between greens and En Marche in the second run will probably allow a three-way race dominated by LR, so probable reelection of LR Joissains-Masini...
- Mulhouse (Haut-Rhin, 68): Michèle Lutz (LR) is candidate again. Three former deputy-mayors are candidate, one Lara Millon for En Marche (she is also supported by local but not national PS), one Fatima Jenn is a dissident LREM and the final one, Christelle Ritz is at the head of the RN list. The rest of the left have united behind Green (and former centrist Modem) Loïc Minery. There is also a regionalist list. The last poll was in 2018 and was quite good for the incumbent. Minery might put up a decent fight, and voters from LREM might be inclined to vote for a Green former centrist candidate in the second run.
- Nîmes (Gard, 30) Jean-Paul Fournier is candidate again with the support of LR. He conquered the communist city in 2001. In 2014 the national context didn't help the left and the communists had two lists. Now there is one candidate, Vincent Bouget, also supported by small left-parties, some Insoumis, some socialists, against a Green party candidate Daniel Richard supported by other Insoumis and the official PS. LREM gave support to a former deputy-mayor, former MP Yvan Lachaud, but there is a dissident LREM list as well. RN have fielded a list. A february poll gave 33% to Fournier, 20 to RN, 18 to Green's Richard, 15 to Lachaud and 7 to Bouget.
- Perpignan (Pyrénées Orientales, 66): The incumbent LR Jean-Marc Puyol is in difficulties in the biggest city that the RN are targetting with Marine Le Pen's former companion Louis Aliot. Caroline Forgue is the PCF-Insoumis candidate while Agnès Langevine is the Green-PS candidate. The should be on the sidelines. A LREM MP Romain Grau is candidate, as well as a former deputy-mayor Olivier Amiel (LR diss) who is a former fellowparty-man of mine, a nice guy who was excluded when he joined Puyol in 2014 (he then joined LR and became treasurer of the local federation). There is another independent-right Clothile Ripoull, already candidate in 2014 and 2008.
There was an early february poll with Aliot at 30%, Puyol at 19, Langevine at 15, Grau 13, Forgue 10, Ripoull at 8 and Amiel at 4. Except for a classical left-wing merger, I don't see any one else merging. But Grau will probably not contest the second run (but without a merger) to "faire barrage" (an expression that is becoming tiresome). I don't know if it will be enough, Puyol becoming a bit "used". We call it "l'usure du pouvoir", I don't know if there's a british idiom ?
- Bordeaux (Gironde, 33): the city of Alain Juppé, gone to the Conseil constitutionnel, he always had a big personal vote that didn't help him in other elections (he famously lost in 2007 his MP constituency while Sarkozy got an overall big majority). His successor, Nicolas Florian (LR) will stand against a LREM former staffer to minister Macron Thomas Cazenave. The left have rallied around the Green Pierre Hurmic (EELV, PS, PCF). The former PS candidate Vincent Feltesse tried to be a candidate but dropped out after a series of bad polls. The insoumis have given their support to former presidential trotskyst candidate Philippe Poutou (NPA). There is also a RN list. Two polls in mid-february: one gave Florian at 34 and Hurmic at 33 with Cazenave at 16, Poutou 9 and RN at 5. The other gave Florian a bigger lead at 40, Hurmic 30, Poutou ahead of Cazenave at 12 and 11 with RN still at 5. Poutou will not merge with the Green candidate. Florian might merge with Cazenave (or Cazenave might be below 10 and unable to maintain his candidacy) so Florian is a favorite in a city that could be won by the left.
No surprise in Boulogne-Billancourt and Toulon where incumbents LR mayors were reelected with 56 and 61% respectively.
In Aix-en-Provence, incumbent Joissains got 30%, LREM 20% and united left Pena got 16%. Below 10%, Greens got 9% and LR dissident 9%, RN got 5,5%. Joissains is not in such a good position, but I don't see her opposition coalescing around a single candidate. And the second round being delayed, who knows who will have a good dynamic at that time.
In Mulhouse (very close to a cluster, there was 26% participation to the first round), the incumbent right-wing Lutz got 33%, the Greens 22% and the LREM Million 20%. Ritz for RN got 12%, the dissident LREM Jenn 8% and others below 5%.
In Nîmes, the incumbent LR got 34%, LREM and PCF 16%. RN got 14% and Greens-PS 12%. The incumbent should be alright, with a united left list possibly creating a nice challenge.
In Perpignan, the RN Aliot is ahead. He got 36% while the incumbent LR only got 18%. The Greens got 14%, LREM 13% and Insoumis 7%. It's likely that some will withdraw their list to help the incumbent to be reelected against RN. But nothing is sure, especially because poor results overall make people think RN voters were among the most abstentionnists because of the Coronavirus. After the health crisis gone, they might come back in force.
Finally, in Bordeaux, the incumbent mayor is only 96 votes ahead of the Green-PS candidate Hurmic (34,5 against 34,4%). LREM is at 13%, Poutou from NPA supported by Insoumis got 12%. RN only got 3%. Poutou has already said he would not merge with Hurmic. So who knows what will happen ?
In Aix-en-Provence, no mergers. United left refused the merger with the LREM MP to create a coalition against the LR incumbent. Greens failed to merge with the united left so they will disappear from the council. It will be a three way race and could be competitive.
In Mulhouse, LREM list merged with the dissident LREM Jenn. They could prove competitive in this four-way race, but the most probable is a reelection of Lutz (LR).
The Green candidate in Nîmes merged with LREM rather than with the communist candidate, despite most of his list wanting a united left alliance. The incumbent should be alright, though.
In Perpignan, both Greens and LREM withdrew from the race. It will be a two-way race betwen RN Alliot and the incumbent LR. A re-match from 2014, that is not sure to go the same way.
In Bordeaux, the incumbent LR mayor merged with LREM while NPA former presidential candidate Poutou (supported by Insoumis) didn't merge with Greens-PS candidate. The incumbent should be reelected easily.
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Post by robert1 on Jun 26, 2020 12:50:56 GMT
Relique-your analysis is excellent. Include some of the wonderful factionalism that is French local politics. One or two of the initials/names lose me as to their approximate political position but in most cases I can work them out from your commentary.
Being greedy, but when we get the results I would be interested to know if turnout seems to have been affected by coronavirus crisis.
How have people gone about campaigning in the last few days? From what you say it seems as if the candidates/organisations have spent most of their time lining up alliances (or failing to) rather than communicating with the voters.
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Post by relique on Jun 26, 2020 13:04:44 GMT
Relique-your analysis is excellent. Include some of the wonderful factionalism that is French local politics. One or two of the initials/names lose me as to their approximate political position but in most cases I can work them out from your commentary.
Being greedy, but when we get the results I would be interested to know if turnout seems to have been affected by coronavirus crisis.
How have people gone about campaigning in the last few days? From what you say it seems as if the candidates/organisations have spent most of their time lining up alliances (or failing to) rather than communicating with the voters.
Well, in the first run, the turnout was affected. Now the question is: will the turnout, because of the end of the crisis, return to normal levels, or will it still be affected. And most importantly: who will come back ? Old people who feared the virus in march ? Families ? Working classes that were apparently the most afraid from the virus (with good reason) ?
There has been campaigning in the last weeks. It was a bit timid at first, with people only giving leaflets at the open-air markets, but there's been more and more door-to-door, a lot of phoning, and of course a lot of social media presence. In my city, it's a bit particular because the incumbent did quite a tired and small campaign before the first run, and the fear of losing against the greens has made her quite more energetic in the second run, with a lot more "field work" to get the working class vote out.
What was new is that usually, there is less than 48 hours for possible mergers. The polls close at 6pm on sunday (or 7pm or 8pm if in a large city) and you know the results less than a couple of hours after that. And you have until tuesday at 6pm to merge your list with others. So the discussions are held on the night between sunday and monday, then all day monday, and usually you know by monday evening (you then have to reprint your new ballots which take into accounts the new list) if there's a merger.
Here, they had 3 months of possible talks, and during those three months, there was the possibility that the first run be annulled (so that if it was annulled, some hoped to do a better score and be better placed for merger-negociations). So yes, the question of alliances was quite over-drawn and occupied the small media place there was to talk about those elections at the heart of a health crisis.
But there was also some new forms of campaigning. Some candidates distributed masks to people of their city. Of course, mayors did as well. Comrades of mine, after asking the mayor they fought against, distributed themselfs reams of papers and ink to working class families who didn't have the money to print the exercizes given by the teacher to the pupils. It was a chaotic campaign !
Sorry for the abbreviations. Don't hesitate to call on some !
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Post by relique on Jun 27, 2020 11:22:13 GMT
Now the cities that were lost by the left in 2014:
- Argenteuil (Val-d'Oise, 95): Georges Mothron (LR) won the city by less than 200 votes last time from Philippe Doucet (PS). The two are candidates again. PCF (who held the mayorship for a long time), Insoumis and trotskyst support the communautarist Omar Slaouti with as the second an Insoumise who called for a "blank vote" in the législative election between Doucet (PS) and the En Marche candidate. No chance of a merger here. En Marche first gave their support to Olivia Fillette, and then retracted and gave it to the runner up Dalila Kaabeche. Both are candidates. A former MEP for the Greens who left the party Alima Boumedienne-Thiery is also candidate. I think she is supported by the greens but I'm not sure. With a left this divided, Mothron should hold.
- Reims (Marne, 51): Arnaud Robinet (LR) took back the city against Adeline Hazan (PS), after the second full-term of a left mayor since the second world war. The PS have fielded her former 1st deputy, Eric Quénard, and he has also garnered support from the PCF. There's a Green party list by Léo Tyburce and an Insoumis list by Laure Manesse. LREM have fielded Gérard Chemla and there's also a RN list. Robinet should hold in this historically right-wing city.
- Saint-Etienne (Loire, 42): The city of the "Verts" for football amateurs, has the same profile as Reims in terms of number of full-terms to the left. But this is a much more working class city. Gaël Perdriau (LR) took back the city from Maurice Vincent (PS) in 2014. The PS have fielded Régis Courbon, a close ally to MP Régis Juanico (who left the PS for the Benoît Hamon party Générations), and he is supported by the PCF. There's an Insoumis list with Andrée Taurinya and a Green party list headed by Olivier Longeon. LREM have fielded a former Saint-Etienne footballer Patrick Revelli. There is also a RN list.
There was a mid-february poll with Perdriau at 42, Courbon at 17, Lorgeon 14, RN at 16, insoumis at 6 and Rivelli at 4. Perdriau should not have much trouble this time.
- Tours (Indre-et-Loire, 37): a more left-wing city, Tours was held by PS Jean Germain from 1995 to 2014. He was accused in a case of "chinese romantic weddings" sold to chinese couples by someone working for the local government and also heading the private company getting paid. She was convicted. This "affaire" started in 2011, and Jean Germain, after his loss, committed suicide the morning of his trial, saying he couldn't suffer any more accusations against him. The newly elected mayor Serge Barbery became a senator in 2017 and decided not to be mayor anymore (from 2017 and on, members of parliament cannot be part of a local governement executive - mayor, deputy mayor, president or vp of département or région). His majority was in turmoil in the following years. Christophe Bouchet is member of the Mouvement Radical. He wanted to have support from LREM but locally, LREM is comprised of a lot of old socialists. So Benoist Pierre was fielded by En Marche. On the left, the Greens are heading a large alliance with Emmanuel Denis (EELV, PS, PCF, Insoumis). But there are Insoumis dissident supporting NPAClaude Bourdin and a dissident PS Mickael Cortot. There's a LR dissident Xavier Dateu and a RN list.
A mid-february poll gave Green Denis 33% and Bouchet 29%, with LREM Pierre at 12, RN at 9, Dateu at 7 and others at less than 5. I think the left have a good shot at taking back the city.
- Limoges (Haute-Vienne, 87): the loss of Limoges was historical for the PS: they held it since 1956 (and the left ince 1912 at least) ! Emile-Roger Lombertie, the LR mayor is candidate. Monique Boulestin, former PS MP who was excluded in 2012 after failing to win an election against the PS supported candidate is now the candidate for LREM. PS have fielded Thierry Miguel, also supported by PCF and a local left-wing movement. The greens have fielded Bernard Drobenko and the insoumis Danielle Soury. RN couldn't achieve fielding a complete list. No polls are available but I think Miguel has a shot to take back the city.
And that's the end of 100,000+ inhabitants cities !
I didn't give the results of the first run for these cities, so here we are:
In Argenteuil, turnout was quite poor, with only 32% of the electorate coming to the polls. The right-wing mayor Mothron got 35% of the vote ahead of the former PS mayor Doucet 30%. The communautarist Slaouti supported by radical left got 11,5% of the vote, so that it will be a three-way race on the second run. Below 10%, Olivia Fillette who once had the LREM support (but LREM withdrew it during the campaign) got 6,6% of the vote. She merged with Doucet. She first approached Mothron and he apparently proposed her the 8th place; she then got a "better offer" (her words apparently) from Doucet so merged with him. Some people on her list were quite upset. Then official LREM Kaabeche got 4,5% of the vote, a right-wing list got 3,9%, the former Green MEP Boumediene-Thiery got 3,8% and the trotskyst LO 1,9%. It is very hard to predict and will depend on who gets out their vote !
In Reims, one round was enough for Arnaud Robinet (right-wing) to be reelected mayor with a big 66% of the vote and 53 seats. The united left Quenard got 12% and 4 seats, the greens 6% and 1 seat and RN 5% and 1 seat. Below 5% (so they couldn't get a seat), Chemla for LREM got only 3% of the vote, just above Insoumis Manesse with 2% and republican left (close to Gilets jaunes) Belaredj-Tunc 2% as well (a friend and comrade of mine was 2nd on this list). Other lists got less than 2% of the vote.
In Saint-Etienne, the right-wing mayor got a big 47% of the vote, far from the PS-PCF list by Courbon at 21%. The Greens got 12% and merged with Courbon for the second run. RN only got 9% of the vote and did not qualify for the second run. Below the 5% threshold to be able to merge, LREM Revelli got 4,7% of the vote, Insoumis Taurinya 3% and two other left-wing lists 1%. The mayor should easily win, if the people going to the polls are roughly the same as in march. But who knows ? There never was an election in France with a second run so distant from the first.
In Tours, the left seems to have done a little better than the poll predicted with 35% for Denis (Green-PS), and the incumbent right-wing Bouchet got only 26% of the vote. LREM got 13% and merged with the incumbent. RN only got 5,7% of the vote, as much as a radical left list at 5,5%. Two right-wing lists got 4,8% and 4,7% of the vote, and other left-wing lists 2%, 1,5% and 1%. The merger could save the mayor but it might be very close tomorrow between the united left and the united right and center.
In Limoges, and historic socialist city fallen to the right in 2014, the incumbent mayor seems to be sailing to an easy win. He got 46% of the vote, far above Thierry Miguel (PS-PCF) with 22% of the vote. The greens got 9% but apparently the relations between Miguel and the greens are tensed and they were not accepted on a merged list. I guess Miguel had done a great alliance with PCF and local political parties and decided that since the Greens refused to participate before the first run, they wouldn't after that. LREM Boulestin got 8% of the vote and didn't merge with anyone. Insoumis Soury got 5,6%, and other lists were below the 5% threshold. Should be an easy win for incumbent Lombertie here.
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Post by relique on Jun 27, 2020 22:49:20 GMT
And then, a few smaller cities where the result could be interesting to follow:
In Allier (03):
- Montluçon, 38 166 inhabitants (biggest city), the LR mayor only got 27% of the vote. Roudillon, another right-wing got 21%, a PCF supported by some dissident socialist Kott got 20% and another center-left list got 15%. They all qualified and no one merged. Below 10%, Insoumis got 7% of the vote, LREM (with the MP inside the list) got 4%, PS 4% and trotskyst 2%. Theoretically, when a mayor is in some difficulties, the list coming 2nd benefits from votes from the other lists. Roudillon could get votes from LREM and the center-left. But Kott could also mobilize left-wing voters, because he's not that far off.
In Alpes-de-Haute-Provence (04) where Minister of the interior Castaner was elected:
- In the biggest city Manosque the right-wing mayor was not candidate and his succession is difficult. One of the two LR candidate got 22% of the vote, just below the united left (lead by Greens) Garnon at 23%. RN got 21% of the vote. The list supported by the incumbent got 21% of the vote as well, above another LR candidate at 13%. These two lists who came last merged in what is now a four-way race which will be quite difficult to call !
- In Digne-les-bains, the former PS now LREM mayor Patricia Granet-Brunello is in trouble. She got only 27% of the vote. Two right-wing lists arrived 2nd and 3rd at 22 and 21% while the united left got 16% of the vote. A far-right list supported by RN got 14%. No one merged.
In Hautes-Alpes (05)
- In Briançon the PS mayor Fromm is in trouble. He only got 19% of the vote, far below the united right candidat Arnaud Murgia at 37%. The incumbent did merge with Gryzka who also got 19% of the vote. A third list, left-wing Poyau is also qualified with 19%. The LREM list got only 5,8% of the vote.
In Alpes-Maritimes (06)
- In Valbonne (13 325 inhab.), the former PS mayor and now senator Marc Daunis gave the mayorship to his first deputy Christophe Etoré in 2016. But both are now candidates against one another. Daunis is supported by PS and also LREM. Etoré pulled ahead of his predecessor in the first run with 29% against 26% for Daunis, but both were behind Joseph Cesaro, a local ecologist supported by the Greens who did his campaign against the building of a new mall, who got 33% of the vote. A right-wing list came fourth at 12% but withdrew from the second run. It will be an uncertain three-way race.
- In Vallauris (26 672 inhab.) the LR mayor Michelle Salucki pulled ahead but with quite a weak 24%, just ahead of another right-wing list Luciano with 23,6%. LREM Falcou came third at 20% and RN at 12%. Three other lists are not qualified at 9, 8 and 3%. Salucki might lose here.
- Vence (18 465) was conquered by Loïc Dombreval in 2014. He became an LREM MP in 2017 and left the city to Catherine Le Lan his third deputy. The former UMP-LR mayor Régis Lebigre (2009-2014) came first with 25% of the vote, ahead of Scalzo (centrist) with 23% and the incumbent Le Lan at 15%. Fourth came a former first deputy of Le Lan, Miran at 13%. Both reunited and merged for the second run. A left-wing list (supported by PCF and Insoumis) failed to qualify with 9% of the vote, as other right-wing lists at 7,5 and 3%. The three-way race is quite uncertain.
In Ariège (09):
- In Pamiers (15 675 inhab), the mayor since 1995, André Trigano, 94 years old, is candidate for his reelection. He is a former center-right MP (93-97) in this very very left-wing département, long-time socialist but who gave, to the general surprise, two MPs to Insoumis in 2017. He is supported by LREM. He came first but with only 28% of the vote. Second, Frédérique Thiennot (centrist) got 22% of the vote and merged with a former deputy to Trigano, Xavier Fauré (supported by LR) who got 21%. A communist supported by Insoumis and Greens got 17%, and finally, PS Laffargue got 12% of the vote but withdrew and said the mayor should not be "too much blue or too much red". Second run could be interesting.
In Aude (11):
- In Carcassonne (46 031 inhab), the well-known medieval city, the right-wing mayor Gérard Larrat since 2014 (he was mayor from 2005 to 2009 but there was a judicial storm because of the 2008 election, and the left gained the city in a by-election) got 33% of the vote, well ahead of PS Rivel at 18%, who merged with the Greens at 12%. The RN list qualified with 16,5%. A LREM list failed to qualify with only 8% of the vote, just behind another list also at 8%. The incumbent is favourite of the second run, but it might be close.
In Aveyron (12):
- In Millau (22 109 inhab), the LR mayor got 34,6% of the vote, just above Gazel (PS) at 33,8%. A centrist Ramondenc qualified with 17% of the vote. A radical-left list got 8% and LREM list got 6,6%. They didn't merge with anyone. It could be close and the mayor could lose.
In Bouches-du-Rhône (13):
- in Allauch, one of the weirdest "entre-deux tours" (between two rounds): the incumbent PS mayor Roland Povinelli, who finished second at 24% behind the right-wing Moisy de Cala at 32%, died. The mayor's most closest collaborators (his son, his campaign manager and what we call the "mandataire" of the list, who might be something like your electoral agent) wanted to merge with a right-wing list arrived 4th with 11%, the LR regional councillor Monique Robineau-Chailan, and to give her the head of the list (and 10 positions for her list's candidates, among the 35 candidates of the future list). The decision was supposed to be acted at a meeting of the candidates in may, but the left-wing candidates refused and with an overall majority designated the 5th on the list, a deputy-mayor, to be the head of the list and to search and alliance with two other left-wing lists (radical left at 6,5% and Greens at 9,8%).
The problem is that, in the case of the death of the head of list, it is the mandataire (electoral agent) who is in charge of filing the list and signing the mergers. The mandataire refused, and arranged a merger with the right-wing list. All the candidates advocating for a united left list were put aside by the electoral agent (or refused to be a part of it), and only 17 candidates (over 37, two "replacers" being possible) of the left-wing list are on the new merged list.
So it will be a three-way race between Moisy de Cala, Robineau-Chailan and a RN list (16% in the first run). Who knows what will happen in, I think, the most bizarre and undemocratic LEGAL thing I've seen or heard of in french politics !
- Arles (52 548 inhab) is known for its arena. It is also a communist city since 2001. This will probably end tomorrow, with the designated successor of incumbent Schiavetti, Nicolas Koukas (PCF with PS support) coming only second with 21%. The former president of the french public television France télévision, Patrick de Carolis came first with 26% of the votes. A right-wing LR list came third at 15% but withdrew and called to vote for Carolis. A left-wing list lead by Grzyb also withdrew after securing 10,3% of the vote but without supporting anyone. RN got 8,5%, Greens %, LREM less than 5% and Insoumis 3%. It will be an interesting second run.
- Aubagne (46 209 inhab.) is also one to look at with the incumbent LR mayor Gazay (who won the city from PCF in 2014 after 49 years of PCF mayors) in an uncomfortable position. He is leading with 35% but his opponent Giovannangeli (PCF-PS-Insoumis) got 24% of the votes and merged with the Greens who got 9%. Another left-wing list at 8% refused the merger but the votes should go to the united left. The RN got 10% and is qualified. A LREM list got 12% but withdrew without supporting anyone. The mayor is still favourite, but it might be close.
- in Gardanne (20 794 inhab.), the long-time mayor Roger Meï (since 1977) didn't run this time. The PCF (and Insoumis) supports Claude Jorda (a councillor at the département level as well), while the incumbent mayor supports La Piana (also supported by the Greens). A former PS and now macronist (but not supported by LREM) Garella is also candidate. Jorda pulled ahead with 24% of the vote with La Piana at 23%. A LR list got 22%. Garella got 18% and merged with La Piana. RN got 13%. So Gardanne will probably not be officially PCF anymore, but Meï will have who he wanted as mayor (his second deputy).
In Cantal (15):
In Aurillac (25 499 inhabitants, only city above 10 000), the PS mayor united all the left (and centrist Modem) around him and got 48% of the vote. LR got 42% of the vote and merged with LREM-backed Amalric (9,7%). It might be close !
In Charente (16):
In Cognac (18 825 nhab), the PS incumbent did not compete. His designated successor Munoz came second with only 25% of the vote. A right-wing list came first at 29%, another right-wing at 23% and LREM at 11%. All maintained themselves. RN didn't qualify with 7,5% of the vote, as well as another right-wing at 4%. The city should go back to the right (it was from 1971 to 2008).
In Charente-Maritime (17):
In the main city, La Rochelle (75 736 inhab), a battle between brothers or almost. In 2012, the first vice-president of Poitou-Charentes region supported Olivier Falorni against the president of the Poitou-Charentes region, Ségolène Royal, for the MP seat. There was a war between Fountaine and Royal since 2008. Both Fountaine and Falorni were excluded from the PS and Falorni beat Royal (after having a tweet of support from the new "first lady" Valérie Trierweiller, the woman Hollande cheated on Royal with for several years... ). In 2014, Fountaine lost the support of PS for the mayorship (both from the PS parisian headquarters and after a primary he lost) but still filed a list with centrist. After coming second behind the PS, he got in an alliance with the Greens and got lots of right-wing votes and became mayor. Now, Olivier Falorni, still MP, is a candidate against Fountaine. Falorni came first at 33,3% and Fountaine (with PS support) second at 32,6%. The Greens, at 16,7% refused to merge and are the only other list qualified. LR only got 8%, Insoumis 5% and PCF 3%. Falorni will probably beat Fountaine with.... right-wing votes !
In Saintes (25 355 inhab), the right wing mayor Machon might just be a one-term mayor. He is supported by LR and LREM but only got 22% of the vote. A UDI (center-right) list got 21%, a united left (Insoumis, MRC, PCF, PS) list got 19%. Another left-wing list got 17,6% and merged with centrist Modem at 12% and Greens at 9%. They might pull an offset and go from 4th to 1st place.
In Cher (18)
In Bourges (64 551 inhab.), the former PS MP Yann Galut came first with 32% in a list with most if not all left-wing political parties. He merged with former PS Félix (17%) for the second run. The incumbent mayor Blanc got the support from the center (LREM, Modem) and center-right (UDI) and came second with 24% and the same number of votes as his deputy mayor Mousny (LR). They merged with Mousny getting the head of the list and two thirds of the candidates ! It will be a close call with Galut maybe favourite.
In Haute-Corse (2A)
Bastia (45 715 inhab) was a historic "Radicaux de gauche" (center-left) city with the Zucarelli dinasty. It was won by nationalists in 2014 with Simeoni who became president of the Corse executive council in 2015. His successor Savelli got 30% of the vote. He will face an alliance of Jean-Sébastien de Casalta (20%, left-wing supported by some of the radicaux de gauche), Jean Zuccarelli (14%, son and grand son of mayors, with radicaux de gauche and PCF) and Jean-Martin Mondoloni (9%, supported by LR). The PCF condemned the alliance and are not present in the merged list. A third list qualified, Morganti (left-wing) with 12%. Two other nationalist lists failed to qualify at 6% each. RN only got 2% (in local election, their vote goes to nationalists, while in national elections, they have a tremendous vote). The republican left might retake the city from the nationalists.
In Corse-du-Sud (2B)
- in Porto-Vecchio (12 042) it might be the other way around with the LR mayor Mela in a difficult position. He only received 40% of the votes, behind nationalist Angelini with 44%. Another nationalist list got 15% but withdrew from the second run.
In Côtes-d'Armor (22)
- in Saint-Brieuc (44 372 inhab), the incumbent UDI (center-right) mayor Marie-Claire Diouron didn't run. The united left list headed by PS Guihard got 32%, a Modem list 21% and a LREM-UDI list 20%. Those two lists merged for the second run to try and keep the city to the center-right. Below 10%, an ecologist list got 9%, an Insoumis list 8% and RN 7,5%. Two trotskyst lists got 2 and 1%. It might be close and the city might fall back to the left after 19 years of the right or center-right.
In Creuse (23)
- Guéret (13 161 inhab., the most populous city of this rural département) might be lost by PS. The incumbent former MP Vergnier didn't run again. His designated successor Sylvie Bourdier only came third with 26% of the vote. She was beaten by former PS (supported by the Greens) Correia with 33% of the vote. Another list (rather right-wing) came second with 28%. A centrist Modem-backed list came fourth with 13,5% of the vote. All votes maintained themselves without any merger.
In Dordogne (24)
- Périgueux (29 966) may win the prize of most opened race. There were 9 lists possible and in a poll, 7 of them got at least 10% in february. In the end, only five of them managed to get more than 10%. The incumbent LR mayor at 19%, a PS list at 17%, LREM at 15%, former PS mayor Moyrand at 14%, radical left (PCF and Insoumis) at 12%, a former right-wing deputy mayor at 9%, Greens at 7% and another right-wing former deputy at 6%. Only three lists remain, though. PS Labails merged with radical left Reys and Greens. LREM-backed Palem merged with former PS mayor Moyrand and the two former deputy-mayors. This three-way race is quite opened with the left a close favourite (they might get votes from Moyrand voters not liking his merger while a lot of candidates from the former deputy-mayors lists have condemned the merger as well, so they might lose right-wing votes to the mayor's list).
In Drôme (26)
- Montélimar (39 097 inhab) the incumbent right-wing former MP mayor Reynier (Mouvement Radical, right-wing close to the government) only got 24% of the vote while a LR list got 34%. The United left, lead by Coutard (MRC, republican left) got 26% of the vote. LREM MP Thourot got 11% of the vote. They are all still candidates for the second run.
In Eure-et-Loir (28)
- Châteaudun (13 195 inhab) might go to the left after almost 40 years of right-wing mayors. Fabien Verdier (PS) got 35% of the vote, ahead of the right-wing deputy-mayor Philippot 21% who merged with Duprieu (18%). Another nonpartisan list qualified with 20,5%. A communist list got 4% of the votes. It might be close.
In Finistère (29)
- Douarnenez (14 520 inhab) might go back to communism. The PCF-lead united left list got 44% of the vote. The incumbent LR mayor came third at 23% and withdrew. It will be a two-way race with right-wing LREM-backed Poitevin who got 33%.
- Morlaix (15 446) the incumbent center-right former MEP mayor Agnès Le Brun got 36% of the vote, just begind the PS-PCF list at 37%. A Green-Insoumis alliance got 20% of the vote and withdrew without giving support to anyone. A LREM list got only 7%. It might go back to PS (the former minister Marylise Lebranchu has been a mayor before she became minister).
- in Plouzané (13 010) the three lists maintained themselves. The PS incumbent didn't run again. Center-right LREM-backed Yves Du Buit got 39%, ahead of the PS at 33% and a Green-Insoumis alliance at 28%. Will some left wing votes go from the greens to PS to help them keep the city ?
- Quimper (66 743), lost by the Hollande adviser Bernard Poignant in 2014 to LR Jolivet might go back to PS (it was PS from 1960 to 1977, then right-wing RPR from 1977 to 1989, then Poignant from 1989 to 2001, RPR-UMP from 2001 to 2008 and back again to Poignant in 2008). Isabelle Assih (PS, PCF) got 32% of the vote while Jolivet (LR) got 30%. A LREM MP got 14% of the vote and and did not merge. A Green list got 7% and did not qualify while Modem got 6% , Insoumis 5% and RN 4%.
I'll try to do the 60 other départements tomorrow !
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 28, 2020 7:58:08 GMT
And then, a few smaller cities where the result could be interesting to follow:
In Allier (03):
- Montluçon, 38 166 inhabitants (biggest city), the LR mayor only got 27% of the vote. Roudillon, another right-wing got 21%, a PCF supported by some dissident socialist Kott got 20% and another center-left list got 15%. They all qualified and no one merged. Below 10%, Insoumis got 7% of the vote, LREM (with the MP inside the list) got 4%, PS 4% and trotskyst 2%. Theoretically, when a mayor is in some difficulties, the list coming 2nd benefits from votes from the other lists. Roudillon could get votes from LREM and the center-left. But Kott could also mobilize left-wing voters, because he's not that far off.
In Alpes-de-Haute-Provence (04) where Minister of the interior Castaner was elected:
- In the biggest city Manosque the right-wing mayor was not candidate and his succession is difficult. One of the two LR candidate got 22% of the vote, just below the united left (lead by Greens) Garnon at 23%. RN got 21% of the vote. The list supported by the incumbent got 21% of the vote as well, above another LR candidate at 13%. These two lists who came last merged in what is now a four-way race which will be quite difficult to call !
- In Digne-les-bains, the former PS now LREM mayor Patricia Granet-Brunello is in trouble. She got only 27% of the vote. Two right-wing lists arrived 2nd and 3rd at 22 and 21% while the united left got 16% of the vote. A far-right list supported by RN got 14%. No one merged.
In Hautes-Alpes (05)
- In Briançon the PS mayor Fromm is in trouble. He only got 19% of the vote, far below the united right candidat Arnaud Murgia at 37%. The incumbent did merge with Gryzka who also got 19% of the vote. A third list, left-wing Poyau is also qualified with 19%. The LREM list got only 5,8% of the vote.
In Alpes-Maritimes (06)
- In Valbonne (13 325 inhab.), the former PS mayor and now senator Marc Daunis gave the mayorship to his first deputy Christophe Etoré in 2016. But both are now candidates against one another. Daunis is supported by PS and also LREM. Etoré pulled ahead of his predecessor in the first run with 29% against 26% for Daunis, but both were behind Joseph Cesaro, a local ecologist supported by the Greens who did his campaign against the building of a new mall, who got 33% of the vote. A right-wing list came fourth at 12% but withdrew from the second run. It will be an uncertain three-way race.
- In Vallauris (26 672 inhab.) the LR mayor Michelle Salucki pulled ahead but with quite a weak 24%, just ahead of another right-wing list Luciano with 23,6%. LREM Falcou came third at 20% and RN at 12%. Three other lists are not qualified at 9, 8 and 3%. Salucki might lose here.
- Vence (18 465) was conquered by Loïc Dombreval in 2014. He became an LREM MP in 2017 and left the city to Catherine Le Lan his third deputy. The former UMP-LR mayor Régis Lebigre (2009-2014) came first with 25% of the vote, ahead of Scalzo (centrist) with 23% and the incumbent Le Lan at 15%. Fourth came a former first deputy of Le Lan, Miran at 13%. Both reunited and merged for the second run. A left-wing list (supported by PCF and Insoumis) failed to qualify with 9% of the vote, as other right-wing lists at 7,5 and 3%. The three-way race is quite uncertain.
In Ariège (09):
- In Pamiers (15 675 inhab), the mayor since 1995, André Trigano, 94 years old, is candidate for his reelection. He is a former center-right MP (93-97) in this very very left-wing département, long-time socialist but who gave, to the general surprise, two MPs to Insoumis in 2017. He is supported by LREM. He came first but with only 28% of the vote. Second, Frédérique Thiennot (centrist) got 22% of the vote and merged with a former deputy to Trigano, Xavier Fauré (supported by LR) who got 21%. A communist supported by Insoumis and Greens got 17%, and finally, PS Laffargue got 12% of the vote but withdrew and said the mayor should not be "too much blue or too much red". Second run could be interesting.
In Aude (11):
- In Carcassonne (46 031 inhab), the well-known medieval city, the right-wing mayor Gérard Larrat since 2014 (he was mayor from 2005 to 2009 but there was a judicial storm because of the 2008 election, and the left gained the city in a by-election) got 33% of the vote, well ahead of PS Rivel at 18%, who merged with the Greens at 12%. The RN list qualified with 16,5%. A LREM list failed to qualify with only 8% of the vote, just behind another list also at 8%. The incumbent is favourite of the second run, but it might be close.
In Aveyron (12):
- In Millau (22 109 inhab), the LR mayor got 34,6% of the vote, just above Gazel (PS) at 33,8%. A centrist Ramondenc qualified with 17% of the vote. A radical-left list got 8% and LREM list got 6,6%. They didn't merge with anyone. It could be close and the mayor could lose.
In Bouches-du-Rhône (13):
- in Allauch, one of the weirdest "entre-deux tours" (between two rounds): the incumbent PS mayor Roland Povinelli, who finished second at 24% behind the right-wing Moisy de Cala at 32%, died. The mayor's most closest collaborators (his son, his campaign manager and what we call the "mandataire" of the list, who might be something like your electoral agent) wanted to merge with a right-wing list arrived 4th with 11%, the LR regional councillor Monique Robineau-Chailan, and to give her the head of the list (and 10 positions for her list's candidates, among the 35 candidates of the future list). The decision was supposed to be acted at a meeting of the candidates in may, but the left-wing candidates refused and with an overall majority designated the 5th on the list, a deputy-mayor, to be the head of the list and to search and alliance with two other left-wing lists (radical left at 6,5% and Greens at 9,8%).
The problem is that, in the case of the death of the head of list, it is the mandataire (electoral agent) who is in charge of filing the list and signing the mergers. The mandataire refused, and arranged a merger with the right-wing list. All the candidates advocating for a united left list were put aside by the electoral agent (or refused to be a part of it), and only 17 candidates (over 37, two "replacers" being possible) of the left-wing list are on the new merged list.
So it will be a three-way race between Moisy de Cala, Robineau-Chailan and a RN list (16% in the first run). Who knows what will happen in, I think, the most bizarre and undemocratic LEGAL thing I've seen or heard of in french politics !
- Arles (52 548 inhab) is known for its arena. It is also a communist city since 2001. This will probably end tomorrow, with the designated successor of incumbent Schiavetti, Nicolas Koukas (PCF with PS support) coming only second with 21%. The former president of the french public television France télévision, Patrick de Carolis came first with 26% of the votes. A right-wing LR list came third at 15% but withdrew and called to vote for Carolis. A left-wing list lead by Grzyb also withdrew after securing 10,3% of the vote but without supporting anyone. RN got 8,5%, Greens %, LREM less than 5% and Insoumis 3%. It will be an interesting second run.
- Aubagne (46 209 inhab.) is also one to look at with the incumbent LR mayor Gazay (who won the city from PCF in 2014 after 49 years of PCF mayors) in an uncomfortable position. He is leading with 35% but his opponent Giovannangeli (PCF-PS-Insoumis) got 24% of the votes and merged with the Greens who got 9%. Another left-wing list at 8% refused the merger but the votes should go to the united left. The RN got 10% and is qualified. A LREM list got 12% but withdrew without supporting anyone. The mayor is still favourite, but it might be close.
- in Gardanne (20 794 inhab.), the long-time mayor Roger Meï (since 1977) didn't run this time. The PCF (and Insoumis) supports Claude Jorda (a councillor at the département level as well), while the incumbent mayor supports La Piana (also supported by the Greens). A former PS and now macronist (but not supported by LREM) Garella is also candidate. Jorda pulled ahead with 24% of the vote with La Piana at 23%. A LR list got 22%. Garella got 18% and merged with La Piana. RN got 13%. So Gardanne will probably not be officially PCF anymore, but Meï will have who he wanted as mayor (his second deputy).
In Cantal (15):
In Aurillac (25 499 inhabitants, only city above 10 000), the PS mayor united all the left (and centrist Modem) around him and got 48% of the vote. LR got 42% of the vote and merged with LREM-backed Amalric (9,7%). It might be close !
In Charente (16):
In Cognac (18 825 nhab), the PS incumbent did not compete. His designated successor Munoz came second with only 25% of the vote. A right-wing list came first at 29%, another right-wing at 23% and LREM at 11%. All maintained themselves. RN didn't qualify with 7,5% of the vote, as well as another right-wing at 4%. The city should go back to the right (it was from 1971 to 2008).
In Charente-Maritime (17):
In the main city, La Rochelle (75 736 inhab), a battle between brothers or almost. In 2012, the first vice-president of Poitou-Charentes region supported Olivier Falorni against the president of the Poitou-Charentes region, Ségolène Royal, for the MP seat. There was a war between Fountaine and Royal since 2008. Both Fountaine and Falorni were excluded from the PS and Falorni beat Royal (after having a tweet of support from the new "first lady" Valérie Trierweiller, the woman Hollande cheated on Royal with for several years... ). In 2014, Fountaine lost the support of PS for the mayorship (both from the PS parisian headquarters and after a primary he lost) but still filed a list with centrist. After coming second behind the PS, he got in an alliance with the Greens and got lots of right-wing votes and became mayor. Now, Olivier Falorni, still MP, is a candidate against Fountaine. Falorni came first at 33,3% and Fountaine (with PS support) second at 32,6%. The Greens, at 16,7% refused to merge and are the only other list qualified. LR only got 8%, Insoumis 5% and PCF 3%. Falorni will probably beat Fountaine with.... right-wing votes !
In Saintes (25 355 inhab), the right wing mayor Machon might just be a one-term mayor. He is supported by LR and LREM but only got 22% of the vote. A UDI (center-right) list got 21%, a united left (Insoumis, MRC, PCF, PS) list got 19%. Another left-wing list got 17,6% and merged with centrist Modem at 12% and Greens at 9%. They might pull an offset and go from 4th to 1st place.
In Cher (18)
In Bourges (64 551 inhab.), the former PS MP Yann Galut came first with 32% in a list with most if not all left-wing political parties. He merged with former PS Félix (17%) for the second run. The incumbent mayor Blanc got the support from the center (LREM, Modem) and center-right (UDI) and came second with 24% and the same number of votes as his deputy mayor Mousny (LR). They merged with Mousny getting the head of the list and two thirds of the candidates ! It will be a close call with Galut maybe favourite.
In Haute-Corse (2A)
Bastia (45 715 inhab) was a historic "Radicaux de gauche" (center-left) city with the Zucarelli dinasty. It was won by nationalists in 2014 with Simeoni who became president of the Corse executive council in 2015. His successor Savelli got 30% of the vote. He will face an alliance of Jean-Sébastien de Casalta (20%, left-wing supported by some of the radicaux de gauche), Jean Zuccarelli (14%, son and grand son of mayors, with radicaux de gauche and PCF) and Jean-Martin Mondoloni (9%, supported by LR). The PCF condemned the alliance and are not present in the merged list. A third list qualified, Morganti (left-wing) with 12%. Two other nationalist lists failed to qualify at 6% each. RN only got 2% (in local election, their vote goes to nationalists, while in national elections, they have a tremendous vote). The republican left might retake the city from the nationalists.
In Corse-du-Sud (2B)
- in Porto-Vecchio (12 042) it might be the other way around with the LR mayor Mela in a difficult position. He only received 40% of the votes, behind nationalist Angelini with 44%. Another nationalist list got 15% but withdrew from the second run.
In Côtes-d'Armor (22)
- in Saint-Brieuc (44 372 inhab), the incumbent UDI (center-right) mayor Marie-Claire Diouron didn't run. The united left list headed by PS Guihard got 32%, a Modem list 21% and a LREM-UDI list 20%. Those two lists merged for the second run to try and keep the city to the center-right. Below 10%, an ecologist list got 9%, an Insoumis list 8% and RN 7,5%. Two trotskyst lists got 2 and 1%. It might be close and the city might fall back to the left after 19 years of the right or center-right.
In Creuse (23)
- Guéret (13 161 inhab., the most populous city of this rural département) might be lost by PS. The incumbent former MP Vergnier didn't run again. His designated successor Sylvie Bourdier only came third with 26% of the vote. She was beaten by former PS (supported by the Greens) Correia with 33% of the vote. Another list (rather right-wing) came second with 28%. A centrist Modem-backed list came fourth with 13,5% of the vote. All votes maintained themselves without any merger.
In Dordogne (24)
- Périgueux (29 966) may win the prize of most opened race. There were 9 lists possible and in a poll, 7 of them got at least 10% in february. In the end, only five of them managed to get more than 10%. The incumbent LR mayor at 19%, a PS list at 17%, LREM at 15%, former PS mayor Moyrand at 14%, radical left (PCF and Insoumis) at 12%, a former right-wing deputy mayor at 9%, Greens at 7% and another right-wing former deputy at 6%. Only three lists remain, though. PS Labails merged with radical left Reys and Greens. LREM-backed Palem merged with former PS mayor Moyrand and the two former deputy-mayors. This three-way race is quite opened with the left a close favourite (they might get votes from Moyrand voters not liking his merger while a lot of candidates from the former deputy-mayors lists have condemned the merger as well, so they might lose right-wing votes to the mayor's list).
In Drôme (26)
- Montélimar (39 097 inhab) the incumbent right-wing former MP mayor Reynier (Mouvement Radical, right-wing close to the government) only got 24% of the vote while a LR list got 34%. The United left, lead by Coutard (MRC, republican left) got 26% of the vote. LREM MP Thourot got 11% of the vote. They are all still candidates for the second run.
In Eure-et-Loir (28)
- Châteaudun (13 195 inhab) might go to the left after almost 40 years of right-wing mayors. Fabien Verdier (PS) got 35% of the vote, ahead of the right-wing deputy-mayor Philippot 21% who merged with Duprieu (18%). Another nonpartisan list qualified with 20,5%. A communist list got 4% of the votes. It might be close.
In Finistère (29)
- Douarnenez (14 520 inhab) might go back to communism. The PCF-lead united left list got 44% of the vote. The incumbent LR mayor came third at 23% and withdrew. It will be a two-way race with right-wing LREM-backed Poitevin who got 33%.
- Morlaix (15 446) the incumbent center-right former MEP mayor Agnès Le Brun got 36% of the vote, just begind the PS-PCF list at 37%. A Green-Insoumis alliance got 20% of the vote and withdrew without giving support to anyone. A LREM list got only 7%. It might go back to PS (the former minister Marylise Lebranchu has been a mayor before she became minister).
- in Plouzané (13 010) the three lists maintained themselves. The PS incumbent didn't run again. Center-right LREM-backed Yves Du Buit got 39%, ahead of the PS at 33% and a Green-Insoumis alliance at 28%. Will some left wing votes go from the greens to PS to help them keep the city ?
- Quimper (66 743), lost by the Hollande adviser Bernard Poignant in 2014 to LR Jolivet might go back to PS (it was PS from 1960 to 1977, then right-wing RPR from 1977 to 1989, then Poignant from 1989 to 2001, RPR-UMP from 2001 to 2008 and back again to Poignant in 2008). Isabelle Assih (PS, PCF) got 32% of the vote while Jolivet (LR) got 30%. A LREM MP got 14% of the vote and and did not merge. A Green list got 7% and did not qualify while Modem got 6% , Insoumis 5% and RN 4%.
I'll try to do the 60 other départements tomorrow !
Very interesting- I love the smaller town politics of France, always fascinating. On looking through these 30 small to medium sized towns I reckon I have visited 19 of them and can summon up memories of them. Whenever I am in France anywhere near election time I am straight round to the nearest hotel de ville or mairie to look for election results posted up! |
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Post by froome on Jun 28, 2020 8:18:08 GMT
We usually stay in smaller towns in France every year, but last year spent our week there in Douarnenez, which was wonderful. Still has large fish-processing plants, but it is a beautiful town and area to explore, and thankfully for me, as we were there on France's hottest ever day, it was enveloped in sea mist that day and pleasantly cool! I could easily see the PCF grouping winning it back.
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Post by relique on Jun 28, 2020 11:34:23 GMT
Other départements:
- Gard (30):
In Vauvert (11 608 inhab) quite a chaotic election. The incumbent PS mayor got 45% of the vote and RN Meizonnet got 43%. A right-wing list was eliminated with 9% and an ecologist 3%. This ecologist supports RN for the second run. One of his candidates published a video on facebook saying she was a "whistleblower" because the incumbent tried to bribe her. Apparently, she initiated talks with the mayor, insisting she wanted to support him but she desperately needed a job, as well as some of her fellow candidates. In the conversations, the mayor starts by saying he cannot make promises and after insisting and insisting he said he would give her some help (but not hiring her directly, just something like a recommendation). She recorded the phone conversation and now using it to say the mayor tried to bribe her. The RN head of list filed a legal action against the mayor for "buying of votes". The mayor transmitted their "messenger" exchange where the woman candidate says "I'd like to know what you can bring me in exchange of my support" or "N.B. wants a job at the mayor's office". The mayor responds with "I will not do individual promises to anyone but everyone will have a chance". Apparently the candidate supported RN from the beginning and probably tried to set up a trap against the mayor and did that in collusion with the RN list.
- Haute-Garonne (31)
- In Castanet-Tolosan (13 529 inhab), the mayor Lafon (LR, former Modem) did not seek reelection. The list he supports by one of his deputy came 5th and last with 12,6% of the votes. They were beaten by a Green-lead PS supported list by Xavier Normand with 36%, a LREM-backed list at 21%, a right-wing (former opponent to Lafon) list at 15% and a list close to PCF and Insoumis at 14%. This last list withdrew to help the greens. LREM list merged with the right-wing opponent, so that it is a three-way race between the united left, the center-right and the incumbent's followers who are quite far off.
- a four-way race in Cugnaux (17 974 inhab) where the incumbent right-wing mayor did not seek reelection and his majority exploded into two lists. They were both beaten in the polls by a left wing list by Sanchez who got 24%. A deputy-mayor supported by the mayor got 23%, a former member of the majority, centrist Burtin got 22%. A PS département-councillor got 19% but withdrew from the race not supporting anyone. RN qualified with 11%. The left should get the most votes from the PS-PCF list but apparently the centrist tried to merge with them so who knows ?
- In Ramonville-Saint-Agne (14 388 inhab), the PS mayor left the party to join Benoît Hamon in "Générations", his new party. He still got the support of most political parties, and got 32% of the vote. A LREM list got 28%. A Green party list got 23% and former PS who criticized the mayor for leaving the party filed a list (supported by Insoumis) and got 13%. They merged with the greens' list and could well take the city from the current mayor.
In Gironde (33):
- in Pessac (63 808 inhab), the incumbent right-wing mayor got 45% but will face only one list since both the PS list (26%) and the Greens-PCF-Insoumis list (21%) merged. They might be able to flip the city after losing it in 2014.
In Hérault (34):
- in Castelnau-le-Lez (20 480 inhab), the incumbent LR mayor is also supported by LREM. He got 44% of the votes. All three other lists merged, left-wing lists getting 21 and 15% of the vote and a nonpartisan list 20%. The mayorship is kept by the right since 1983. It might flip.
- In Lunel (26 239 inhab), the LREM incumbent got 29% of the vote, just ahead of a nonpartisan list who got 28% of the votes and merged with a left-wing list at 14%. RN is qualified with 22% while another left-wing list got 8%. The mayorship could be lost by LREM.
- In Sète (43 229 inhab), the right-wing mayor Commeinhes is supported by LR and LREM. He got 35% of the vote. The left-wing lists merged, with PCF (Greens and Insoumis backed) Calueba at 19% and former PS MP Denaja at 18%. RN got 14% and merged with a right-wing list supported by UDI (center-right) which got 12%. A dissident LREM list got less than 2%. It might be an interesting second run, with the communists able to win back this city.
In Indre-et-Loire (37)
- in the city of Amboise (12 610 inhab) in the Loire valley known for the castles and the wines, the PS is in trouble. The mayor did not seek reelection and its potential successor Ravier got 37%. A right-wing list supported by LR got 29% and Greens 18%. A centrist list got 16% and withdrew without giving any support. Those votes will be important.
- in the railway city of Saint-Pierre-des-Corps (15 838 inhab), the long-time communist mayor and senator Marie-France Beaufils is retiring. Everyone thought it would mean the loss of PCF. It's more complex than that after the first run. The communist list got 27% of the vote, behind a right-wing list at 29%. A PS list got 16% and maintained without any merger. The Greens got 12% and also maintained without a merger. LREM got 7% and Insoumis (who merged with PCF) 6%. A trotskyst list got 2%. With a few left-wing votes coming to the rescue, the PCF could keep the city in a dangerous four-way race (the left-wing lists from PS and Greens probably wants the PCF to lose to be able to get it in 2026).
- Isère (38):
- Fontaine (22 523 inhab) might be lost by PCF. A LR-Modem list got 32% and merged with a LREM list who got 21%. PCF incumbent mayor got 24% and merged with Insoumis-Greens at 21%. A dissident LREM got 2%.
- L'Isle-d'Abeau (16 124 inhab) the left-wing mayor Jurado came fourth and last with 16,9%. He merged with right-wing Simon who got 26%. A PRG (radicaux de gauche, classified as centrist by the ministry) list got 40% and a deputy mayor 17%.
- Meylan (17 129 inhab) the right-wing incumbent got only 7% of the votes. Another right-wing list at 14% withdrew from the second run. It will be a two-way race between PS-Greens at 49% and LREM at 29%.
- Saint-Egrève (15 838 inhab), the incumbent didn't seek reelection but supported centrist Coiffard who got 30%. A Green-PCF-Insoumis list failed election at the first run with 49%. A LREM-PS list withdrew after getting 20% of the votes.
- Sassenage (11 376 inhab), the incumbent mayor UDI got 45% of the votes. He will face a merged left-wing list by Belle (36%) and Benzakour (Greens-PCF, 19%).
- Seyssinet-Pariset (12 013 inhab), the incumbent right-wing mayer did not seek reelection. Two right-wing lists got 26 and 10%. They didn't merge. The PS-PCF list got 44% and merged with the greens at 11%.
- Loire (42)
- Firminy (17 135) the communist mayor Marc Petit was convicted of sexual harassment but appealed the decision. He was disavowed by the PCF but still ran and got 34% of the votes, just behind a right-wing list at 35%. An official PCF list (supported by Insoumis and PS) got 16% and LREM 15%. The LREM list withdrew and gave their support to the right-wing list.
- Rive-de-Gier (15 184) the LR incumbent got 32% of the vote, behind the PCF-United left list at 38%. A former first deputy mayor got 16% and merged with (but left the head of the list to) a centrist Granata who got 14%.
- Loire-Atlantique (44)
- In Ancenis-Saint-Géréon (10 802), the incumbent mayor Tobie (LREM) doesn't seek reelection. He supports Landrain who got 40% of the votes, while a left-wing list got 41%. Another centrist list got 18% but withdrew from the race.
- In Bouguenais (19 331 inhab), the PS incumbent did not seek reelection. The PCF lead a list with PS and got 22%. They merged with both left-wing and Greens lists who got 21 and 15%. They will face a centrist list which got 42%.
- In Orvault (26 355), the incumbent right-wing mayor didn't seek reelection and supported, with LREM Monique Maisonneuve who got 33% of the votes. Green-lead united left list got 35% of the vote and another centrist 32%. No merger here, the third list refusing an alliance with Maisonneuve.
- In Rezé (41 411 inhab) the PS incumbent Allard got only 20% of the votes. He merged with Greens at 12%. One of his former deputy-mayor got 34% and merged with radical left Soccoja at 9,6%. LREM got 11% and maintain their list, while another centrist got eliminated at almost 10%.
- Loiret (45)
- in Fleury-les-Aubrais (21 026 inhab), the incumbent centrist Marie-Agnès Linguet did not run. The united left got 34% of the vote, ahead of centrist Linguet at 30%. Another left-wing list got 17% and did not merge. A right-wing list got 14% and withdrew.
- Maine-et-Loire (49)
- in Avrillé (13 692 inhab), the former MP right-wing mayor Marc Laffineur is in trouble. He only got 28% of the vote, behind his former deputy mayor Caroline Houssin-Salvetat at 37% and a former right wing deputy mayor of Angers, Florian Santinho 30%. The three lists maintained but Laffineur said he withdrew personally, leaving his deputy mayor Laurent Prétrot to be the new leader and to go into the televised debate (he is 7th on the list).
- Manche (50)
- in Granville (12 580 inhab), the right-wing mayor Baudry got 33%. He is ahead of his former deputy mayor Ménard at 30% but Ménard merged with the left-wing list Garcion at 25%. A fourth right-wing list maintained at 12%.
- in Saint-Lô (19 116), the right-wing mayor got 32% of the votes, below a former fellow candidate in the same list Emmanuelle Lejeune at 34%. The left-wing list got 24% of the votes. A right-wing opponent of the mayor Villeroy got 10,5% but withdrew from the race.
- Mayenne (53)
- in Laval (50 843 inhab), the former UDI senator incumbent François Zochetto didn't seek reelection. His possible successor Didier Pillon (UDI-LR-LREM) got 41% of the vote, just ahead of the PS list at 34% lead by Bercault. The Greens got 18% and merged with PS. RN got only 6% and cannot maintain. Laval might go back to the left quite surprisingly, some thought that it was only because of former minister Guillaume Garot that the PS stood a chance in this very center-right département.
- in Mayenne (13 226 inhab) there was only one left-wing list in 2014. The mayor became LREM and decided not to run. He unofficially supports a councillor, Lavandier, who got 14%. LREM got only 10%. A deputy mayor who stayed PS and is in a war with the mayor got a whopping 43%. Right-wing UDI-LR list got 32%.
- Meurthe-et-Moselle (54)
- in Laxou (14 444 inhab), the 2014 elected mayor Laurent Garcia became a Modem MP in 2017 and had to leave his mayorship. He is, though, candidate against his successor, Laurence Wieser. The MP Garcia got 41% and the incumbent Wieser 34%. She merged with the left-wing list by Baumann who got 22% of the votes.
- Morbihan (56)
- in Auray (13 627 inhab), the LR incumbent Rochelle came 4th with 12% but merged with the 5th (LREM, 10%) and 6th lists (right-wing, 9%). He was only elected in 2018 after a rebellion he lead against the UDI mayor Dumoulin who had to quit. He will face a united left alliance headed by the Greens who got 33% of the votes,the former UDI mayor Dumoulin at 20% and a centrist list at 16%. The left could take the city back. It was lead by a communist mayor from 1995 to 2012 who became senator in 2011 in this very right-wing département (it was a very surprising result in 2011).
- in Lorient (57 149), the PS mayor did not seek reelection. The PS rallied an ecologist candidate, Damien Girard, also backed by Greens and PCF. They got 23% of the vote, just ahead of UDI list at 21%, a dissident socialist at 18,5% and LREM at 18%. RN got 7%, two left-wing lists 6,5 and 3% and a LR list 3%. No merger or withdrawl here. It is quite uncertain.
- Moselle (57)
- in Forbach (21 552 inhab), the incumbent mayor and former MP Laurent Kalinowski did not seek reelection (he's beaten time and time again the former 1st VP of FN Philippot (now with his own party) ). Everyone is divided. Two socialist lists did quite badly ( 13,5 and 7,5%). Cassaro (LR, supported by LREM) got 22%, ahead of two other right-wing lists at 19 and 15%. No one merged. It is quite difficult to forecast !
- in Thionville (40 701), the right-wing incumbent of this working-class city got 32% of the vote, ahead of another right-wing at 23%. The former PS mayor Mertz got 20% and merged with the Greens at 13%. This three-way race might be interesting, with RN eliminated with 7% of the vote.
- Nord (59), most populated département (and mine !)
- Aniche (10 244 inhabitants) was lost by PCF mayor Michel Meurdesoif (Deadofthirst could be a translation (; ) in 2014 to right-wing Marc Hemez. Hemez didn't run. Left-wing Bartoszek got 33%, Meurdesoif 30% and RN 17%. The list from the incumbent majority only got 12% and withdrew from the race since no one was willing to merge with them. It will go back left, but to whom ?
- Bailleul (14 769) fell from PS to the right in 2014 with Marc Deneuche. He only came second here with 23%, behind Antony Gautier (nonpartisan but former PS) with 27%. Gautier merged with other nonpartisan (and also former PS) Lefebvre (14%). Third came left-wing (former PS) Decat (15%) who merged with ecologist Deplancke (10%) and former deputy mayor to Deneuche Bénédicte Crépel (9,95%). Gautier seems favourite.
- Hautmont (14 574 inhab) was the most bloody fight this election. Because the two main candidates share the same blood. Long time right-wing mayor Joël Wilmotte won 47% of the votes against his own son, Stéphane Wilmotte (37%) who he gave the mayorship when he was convicted and became legally unelectable but took it back after a couple of years. He then suppressed his son from the electoral lists and they have been fighting ever since. An insoumis list took 16% of the votes.
The only other town with this kind of fight was in Port-Bacarès (Pyrénées-Orientales) where two spouses did a remake of "La Zizanie" (comedy with Louis de Funès and Annie Girardot where a mayor and CEO of the local manufacturing company has a huge contract with chinese investors and has to expand his factory into his own home - and his wife's "jardin d'hiver", so that his wife present a list - and wins - to the local council). The husband (mayor between 1995 and 1999 and since 2011) won with 60% of the votes against his wife (mayor between 1999 and 2011).
- Hazebrouck (21 441 inhab) was conquered by right-wing Debaecker in 2014. His majority exploded and he only got 21% of the votes. Once part of the majority, Belleval got 33%. Former PS candidate in 2014, Tiberghien got 30%, while PCF Veit-Torrez got 7%. RN got 9%. No mergers.
- Lambersart (27 649 inhab) was the city of Marc-Philippe Daubresse, former minister, MP and senator, who was candidate for LR in Lille (and was eliminated). He gave the mayorship to Christiane Krieger who decided not to run. Daubresse and Krieger supported Claudie Jilcot who only got 14% of the votes and withdrew from the running. LREM backed Krieger's first deputy mayor Christophe Caudron who obtained 17% of the votes. Long-time right-wing opponent to Daubresse, Nicolas Bouche lead the pack with 36%. A radical-left list by Pira obtaines 13%. Two other right-wing lists obtaines 10 and 9%, the one getting 10% withdrawing. No mergers.
- Marly (11 855) mourned its mayor at the beginning of the year, Fabien Thiémé (PCF). The succession was difficult and two deputy mayors, Isabelle Jalain and Laurence Morel have left the majority. Jérôme Leman is now mayor and was backed by left-wing parties. He obtained 42%, ahead of the right-wing opponent Verfaillie at 39%. Jalain got 11,6% and Morel 7%. They both merged with right-wing Verfaillie. The second run will be close.
- Roubaix (96 990 inhabitants), one of the poorest city, was lost by a very divided left in 2014 (8 lists in the first run, two in the second run) to Guillaume Delbar, LR (now close to the government). They were quite less divided this time around with 7 left-wing lists  ! But only one could qualify with 15%, Karim Amrouni, former PS. He merged with André Renard (former PS), 9%, Christian Carlier (Greens) 6%, Christiane Fonfroide (PCF, supported by PS) 5,5%. Insoumis Zilmia (9,4%) didn't merge. RN only got 9% and didn't qualify this time. Delbar is well ahead with 41% of the vote but is now facing only one list in this very left-wing city. Who knows ?
- Seclin (12 414), PCF city in the suburbs of Lille can be lost by mayor Bernard Debreu. He only came second with 40,2%, just behind his right-wing opponent François-Xavier Cadart, 40,6%. Cadart merged with (now former) PS deputy-mayor Didier Serrurier (10%) while an ecologist list didn't qualify at 9%. Who knows what socialist electors will do ? Follow the party or the deputy mayor who switched allegiance without having any problems with PCF majority in the last two or three terms ?
- Vieux-Condé (10 469) is probably the most communist city ! Son and grand-son of communist mayors, David Bustin is trying to succeed to his father and got 37% of the vote. Former PCF mayor Serge Van der Hoeven withdrew after having only 22,5% of the vote. Official PCF candidate Franck Agah (also supported by PS) got his support and will face Bustin after getting 31% of the vote. A right-wing list didn't qualify with 9% of the vote. PCF will probably officially take back the city (that was still communist).
- Orne (61)
- in Alençon (25 848 inhab), the former mayor and still PS MP Joaquim Pueyo is candidate again and obtained 35% of the votes. He fought his successor, Emmanuel Darcissac, who joined LREM and only obtained 20%. LR got 23% of the vote and Greens-PCF 16%. No one was willing to merge. Another right-wing list got 6% of the vote.
- Pas-de-Calais (62)
- Bruay-la-Buissière (21 831 inhab) was a target for RN MP Ludovic Pajot who was candidate. He is leading, with only 39% of the vote, though. The PS mayor, Olivier Switaj, only obtained 22% and withdrew his list. It leaves a two way race with former PS Bernard Caillau who got 34% of the vote.
- Puy-de-Dôme (63)
- Aubière (10 061 inhab) is lost by PCF. The mayor didn't seek reelection and supports an elected councillor, PS Guitton. He obtained 44,8% of the vote, just behind the right-wing Casildas with 45,2%. A centrist list got 10% and maintained. It might be close.
- Beaumont (10 787 inhab) might flip. The LR mayor Alain Dumeil got 28% of the votes, behind centrist Cuzin with 34%. The two left-wing lists merged, they got 24 and 14% of the vote. This three way race might be close.
- Chamalières (17 173) was the city of president Valery Giscard d'Estaing. His son Louis is the mayor and obtained 43% of the vote (supported by UDI). He will face a three-way race against LREM Duvert, 38% and PS Merzi, 14%. An Insoumis list got less than 5%.
- Pont-du-Château (11 441) was headed by René Vinzio, MRC (republican left). He put Patrick Perrin in charge a couple of years ago, but Perrin is opposed by PS Cardona. Cardona got 38%, Perrin 35% and LR 27%. Uncertain three-way race.
- Riom (19 180 inhab) might go back to the left after just one term. The right-wing mayor Pierre Pecoul got 42% of the vote, but the two left-wing lists at 31 and 20% merged. A LREM list was eliminated with 7% of the vote.
- Thiers (11 847 inhab) has a communist mayor, Claude Nowotny. He didn't seek reelection and the PCF-PS list only got 17% of the vote. They merged with Greens (9%). Some left-wing deputy-mayors are leading with Rodier at 36%, ahead of the right-wing Boucourt at 32%.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jun 28, 2020 16:10:23 GMT
Huguette Bello has won in Saint-Paul with around 60% according to one of the Reunion newspapers
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jun 28, 2020 17:05:11 GMT
58.74% for Ericka Bareigts (PS) in Saint Denis (Reunion). La Possession: Vanessa Miranville (DVG) re-elected with 64,75 Saint-Benoît (DVG): Patrice Selly elected with 43,05% Les Avirons: Éric Ferrere (DVD) elected with 58,53% Sainte-Suzanne: Maurice Gironcel (Communist) re-elected with 47,67% Tampon: André Thien-ah-koon (DVD) reelected with 64,63%, Saint-Louis: Juliana M'Doihoma (DVD) elected with 53,24% Saint-Leu: Bruno Domen (DVC) re-elected as only candidate left Looks good for Edouard Philippe in Le Havre with half counted.  |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jun 28, 2020 18:02:18 GMT
Louis Aliot wins Perpignan 53 to 47%
Greens win Besancon
Mathieu Klein (PS) gains Nancy
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jun 28, 2020 18:16:23 GMT
Estimations by TF1 have Martine Aubry behind the Green candidate in Lille 40 to 39%
Bayrou wins in Pau with around 5%
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Post by relique on Jun 28, 2020 18:23:18 GMT
Let's start with the Pyrénées
- Pyrénées-Atlantiques (64)
- in Pau (77 130 inhab), François Bayrou (Modem founder, former minister and presidential candidate) was elected in 2014 mayor for the first time. He got a good 46% of the vote, but all three left-wing lists merged with 22, 15 and 5%. RN was eliminated with 7%. Could be close if there's an anti-Bayrou-anti-government front.
- in Bayonne (51 228 inhab), the centrist mayor Jean-René Etchegaray got 40% of the vote. Second, PS Henri Etcheto who failed to take the city in 2014 by a few votes in a three-way race got 30% and merged with other left-wing Bergé (11%). Iriart (Greens Insoumis) who was in the three-way in 2014 withdrew without merging with Etcheto. The left might take the city for the first time since WW2.
- in Biarritz (25 404 inhab), Modem Mayor Michel Veunac got only 12% of the votes and withdrew from the second run. LR Maider Arosteguy got 31% of the vote and decided she did not need anyone to win. Barucq, centrist deputy mayor got 16% and merged with the left-regionalist Morin with 12%. Motsch, centrist got 14% and Saint-Cricq, right-wing 10,6%. They maintained without a merger in this 4-way race.
- Hautes-Pyrénées (65)
- in Lourdes (13 389 inhabitants, the famous city for the pilgrimage), the center-left radicaux de gauche mayor Josette Bourdeu only got 15% of the vote and withdrew. Her former deputy-mayor, Thierry Lavit got 30% of the vote. All other lists, right-wing Peretto, 23%, centrist Vinuale 13%, centrist Lacoste 9,6% and Omnes 5% merged to try and take the city.
- Bas-Rhin (67)
- in Ostwald (12 604 inhab), the left-wing mayor Beutel obtained 29%. Fabienne Baas, close to the Greens, obtained 27% and merged with right-wing Florange, 23%. Another right-wing list by Steinle got 20%. This three-way race should prove interesting.
- in Riedisheim (12 645 inhab), the right-wing mayor Nemett got 32,5% of the votes, behind two other lists at 34,4 and 33,1%, both centrists. They all maintained in a very close race !
- Rhône (69):
- Brignais (11 434 inhab), the right-wing mayor supports Sandrine Tison, also backed by LREM. She got 37% of the vote and will face right-wing Bérard (33%) and left-wing Constant (18%). A centrist Boisserin merged with Bérard after he got 12%.
- Bron (41 542) could be interesting. The PS mayor got 43% of the vote, ahead of Bréaud LR 36% and Pénicaud (Modem) 14%. Both merged to face the PS mayor. Insoumis list got 6% of the vote.
- Chassieu (10 359) put their incumbent former LR mayor Sellès ahead with 35% of the vote. LR supported Sylvaine Coponat, 27%, who merged with Jean-François Leone, left-wing 21% for the second run. A Green list qualified with 16%.
- Francheville (14 198) put their LR mayor first as well with 43% of the vote. Greens got 34% and LREM-PS alliance got 23%. Those last two merged for the second run and could flip the city.
- Givors (19 975) a communist city lead by Christiane Charnay put her ahead with only 24,6% of the vote. RN came second with 23%, and then Greens at 20,5%. Another left-wing list by Decourselle got 19% of the vote and merged with LREM who got 9%. It's a very open four-way race.
- in Meyzieu (33 477), the LR mayor got 29% of the vote. A PS list got 20% and merged with the Greens at 12%. Center-right list got 16%, LREM and RN 11% each. The center-right list merged with LREM after the LREM head of the list, Philippe Pesteil died of coronavirus in april. It will be a risky four-way race for the incumbent.
- in Saint-Fons (18 802) the right-wing mayor Nathalie Frier got the LREM backing. She obtained 34% of the vote, just ahead of left-wing Duchêne, 32%. He merged with PS Edery, 20% and they will face a third nonpartisan list who obtained 11%. The city will probably flip.
- Saône-et-Loire (71)
- in Autun (13 290 inhab) Vincent Chauvet, Modem mayor got 44% of the votes, just behind right-wing Brochot with 45%. Another right-wing list got 7% and trotskyst LO 4%.
- in Montceau-les-Mines (19 124 inhab) the right-wing Marie-Claude Jarrot, close to former minister and president of île-de-france region Pécresse, got 40% of the vote. The two left-wing lists merged and obtained 24 and 19% of the votes. A former RN candidate, Noirot, got 15% and qualified for this three-way race.
- Sarthe (72)
- Sablé-sur-Sarthe (12 220 inhab) was the city of former PM and presidential candidate François Fillon. His successor, former MEP Marc Joulaud got only 39% of the votes, behind a former member of his majority, now supported by the left Leudière, 44%. Another left-wing list got 11% and maintained for the second run. Ballot, LREM was eliminated with 6%.
- Savoie (73)
- in Chambéry (58 919 inhabitants), the LR mayor Michel Dantin, former MEP got 37% but faces a tough challenge from former minister and senator Thierry Repentin (PS), 23%, who merged with the Greens, 22%. A radical left list got 8% and LREM got 6%.
- Haute-Savoie (74)
- La Roche-sur-Foron (11 339 inhab) put their incumbent right-wing mayor at 31%, just behind his left-wing opposition at 32%. A third centrist list by Chomat got 27% and didn't merge. The fourth list, Broisin at 9,8% merged with the left-wing opposition.
- in Passy (10 902 inhab), the LR mayor Kollibay got only 19% and withdrew from the race. A PS-backed list got 42%, another left-wing got 23% and a third left-wing list got 16% but withdrew as well. Two-way race between opponents to the mayor here.
- Seine-Maritime (76)
- in Bois-Guillaume (13 796 inhab), the LR mayor didn't seek reelection. A regional councillor, LR Guguin got 31% of the vote, below nonpartisan Perez, 37% who included in his lists left-wing opposition councillors. LREM got 22% and maintained. A Modem list got 9%
- in Fécamp (18 641 inhab) the LR mayor Marie-Agnès Poussier-Winsback failed to be elected in the first run by a few votes, with 49,7% of the votes. Former PS mayor Patrick Jeanne is close with 44% while a third list, radical left Talbot didn't qualify with 6%. It should be close !
- Seine-et-Marne (77)
- Ozoir-la-Ferrière (20 331), LR mayor Oneto got 33% of the votes and face a three-way race with Bariant (LREM), 22,5% who merged with Garcia (22%) , and Wittmayer (another centrist), 22%.
- Saint-Fargeau-Ponthierry (14 206), LR mayor Guyard finished third with 26% of the vote, far from the left-wing list by Félix-Boron 45% and below the other right-wing list Bruiant at 29%. It will most probably flip.
- Villeparisis (26 322), LR mayor Touguet got 36% of the votes, below united left Bouche in 41%. A centrist (Modem, UDI) list qualified and didn't merge at 14%.
- Yvelines (78)
- Carrières-sous-Poissy (16 212) LR mayor Delrieu got 30% of the vote, behind Eddie Aït, center-left who obtained 38%. LREM list at 18% merged with nonpartisan Effroy at 11%.
- Houilles (32 151 inhab) right-wing mayor got 37%, behind LREM Chambon at 40%. United left, lead by PCF got 23%. They all maintained.
- Le Vésinet (15 889), the incumbent mayor right-wing Bernard Grouchko cale fourth with 12% of the vote. LREM-Modem Coradetti got 21%, LR Gripoix 16% and right-wing Bonnin 14%. United left only did 9%, a little better than yet another right wing list. A last right-wing one got 7%. Four lists remain for the second run.
- Tarn-et-Garonne (82)
- Moissac (12 652), the LR mayor didn't seek reelection and his majority exploded. It's the most probable chance of a pick up from RN. RN got 47%, a left-wing list 23, a right-wing list 13%, centrist 9,7%, another right-wing 7%. Only the left-wing list remains against RN.
- Var (83)
- Cogolin (11 736) the far-right mayor Lansade got 47,5% of the votes. He will face a centrist alliance of lists who got 20 and 14%. Vallet for the right withdrew after having 13,5%.
- Cuers (11 425) the LR mayor Pérugini didn't seek reelection. LR got only 8% and merged with LREM at 11% and a right-wing at 17%. They were beaten by a left-wing list at 21%. A RN list got 17% and merged with a nonpartisan list who did 11%. Another right-wing got 13%.
- Hyères (55 588) the LR mayor got 33%. He will face an alliance between right-wing Politi at 20%, LREM at 13% and another centrist at 6%. RN qualified at 14,5%. United left did only 6,6%.
- Vaucluse (84)
- Carpentras (28 309) the left wing mayor got 36%, RN got 31% and LR 17%. A centrist got 8% and PCF 8% as well.
- Cavaillon (26 641) the LR mayor got 39%, the RN with 23% merged with a right-wing list 15%. LREM got 13% and a Gilets jaunes (yellow vests) list got just below 10%.
- Bollène (13 504), the far-right mayor Marie-Claude Bompard might lose the city. She got just three more votes than the left wing candidate with both 45%. A PCF list got 10% and withdrew.
- Vienne (86)
- Poitiers (87 961) Alain Claeys, PS mayor got 28,2% and will face an alliance between Greens at 24% and Insoumis at 10%. LREM got 18%, LR less than 10% and RN 6%.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 28, 2020 19:02:29 GMT
Philippe takes 58.8 per cent in Le Havre. Dare Manu sack him now?
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jun 28, 2020 19:09:43 GMT
Estimations for Paris mayorality
A. HIDALGO (PS-PCF-EELV) 49.3
R. DATI (LR) 32.7
A. BUZYN (LREM-MoDem-UDI) 13.7
Estimations for Lyon
G. DOUCET (EELV-PS-PCF-LFI) 53.5
Y. CUCHERAT (DVC-LR) 30.5
G. KEPENEKIAN (LREM diss/PRG) 16.0
Estimations for Bordeaux
Pierre HURMIC (EELV-PS-PCF) 46,8%
Nicolas FLORIAN (LR-MoDem-LREM) 43,2 %
Philippe POUTOU (NPA-LFI) 10%
Estimation for Strasbourg
Jeanne BARSEGHIAN (EELV-PCF) : 42.5
Alain FONTANEL (LREM-MoDem-LR) : 34.3
Catherine TRAUTMANN (PS) : 23.2
Estimation for Tolouse
Jean-Luc MOUDENC (LR-LREM) 51.6 %
Antoine MAURICE (EELV-LFI-PS-PCF) 48.4 %
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jun 28, 2020 19:19:56 GMT
Martine Aubry survives, it seems
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Post by relique on Jun 28, 2020 19:34:50 GMT
Martine Aubry survives, it seems Yes, a friend of mine, deputy-mayor says 200 votes ahead for Aubry. |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 2, 2020 18:23:39 GMT
SatyrPlay: The Left has gained 6 (and lost 1) cities with more than 100.000 inhabitants and will control in future 24/42 (copied thankfully from en.wikipedia):  The Left has not improved its bad result of 2014 in the cities&towns with over 30.000 people (copied thankfully from another forum):  Put together, this means an InCrease in the cities and a DeCrease in the towns - what does not sound too unfamiliar to British (or austrian) ears, does it. |
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! But only one could qualify with 15%, Karim Amrouni, former PS. He merged with André Renard (former PS), 9%, Christian Carlier (Greens) 6%, Christiane Fonfroide (PCF, supported by PS) 5,5%. Insoumis Zilmia (9,4%) didn't merge. RN only got 9% and didn't qualify this time. Delbar is well ahead with 41% of the vote but is now facing only one list in this very left-wing city. Who knows ? 
