South African General Election

[Devonian]

South Africa will hold its general election on May 7th this year. The only opinion poll I could find for it was by Ipsos South Africa in November of last year. Ipsos produced three estimates of the turnout, low, moderate or high. The moderate turnout estimate was as follows

ANC 64%

DA    19%

EFF    4%

IFP     2%

ACDP 1%

AGANG 1%

COPE 1%

Other 2%

DK/refused 6%

www.ipsos.co.za/SitePages/Support%20for%20political%20parties.aspx

[Devonian]

Ipsos have also done supporter profiles for the three most popular parties in its November poll, the ANC, the DA and Julius Malema's new EFF party



















www.politicsweb.co.za/politicsweb/view/politicsweb/en/page71619?oid=534039&sn=Detail

[markgoodair]

After seeing Zuma's lack of support at Mandela's memorial service I suspect that 64% support for the ANC is a bit on the high side. Still expect them to win by a country mile though.

[Devonian]

EFF Manifesto Launch last month

[markgoodair]

Mar 5, 2014 0:18:08 GMT Devonian said:

EFF Manifesto Launch last month

Another Zimbabwe in the making.

[slicesofjim]

Mar 5, 2014 7:05:50 GMT markgoodair said:

Mar 5, 2014 0:18:08 GMT Devonian said:

EFF Manifesto Launch last month

Another Zimbabwe in the making.

Not if they're polling 4%.

[Devonian]

Mar 4, 2014 11:37:29 GMT markgoodair said:

After seeing Zuma's lack of support at Mandela's memorial service I suspect that 64% support for the ANC is a bit on the high side. Still expect them to win by a country mile though.

Indeed. Whilst the main stories of the election will how much will the ANC vote decline and what progress will the DA and the EFF make of course the ANC will still win by a landslide. Something else indicated by the Ipsos poll however is that the ANC may lose its overall majority two of the Provincial Legislatures

In a press release issued last week Ipsos stated that: "...voters intend, to a much greater degree than in previous elections, to split their votes - i.e. vote for different parties on the national and provincial ballots."[...]

The ANC has a clear majority in six of the nine provinces

The DA should keep its majority and control in the Western Cape

Both Gauteng and the Northern Cape will be heavily contested between the ANC and the DA (and other opposition parties who might hold the key to power sharing, especially in Gauteng)

The EFF can be the official opposition after the election in both Limpopo and North West

In KwaZulu-Natal, more than one in every ten (11%) refused to answer the question

Uncertainty is the highest in the Free State, with almost one in ten (9,5%) saying that they do not know which party to vote for.

www.politicsweb.co.za/politicsweb/view/politicsweb/en/page71654?oid=511359&sn=Detail&pid=71616

[Devonian]

It seems that the ANC supporters are not always happy with opposing political parties being able to speak where they want.

Here's some paid goons with their useful idiot followers concerned ANC supporters rioting protesting against the DA



And here are some more concerned citizens expressing their disagreement with the EFF

[finsobruce]

As a national liberation movement the ANC were almost bound to have an inbuilt majority , and this will gradually erode over time helped by the fact that there are strong regional authorities, which can offer alternative power bases. 

Surely you're aware though that Malema of the EFF was pretty much the embodiment of mob rule politics when he was in the ANC, and that his expulsion has probably raised the tolerance threshold by about 50%? You could argue it is one of the few brave things Zuma has done since his election as leader. 

[Devonian]

Mar 8, 2014 17:22:53 GMT finsobruce said:

Surely you're aware though that Malema of the EFF was pretty much the embodiment of mob rule politics when he was in the ANC, and that his expulsion has probably raised the tolerance threshold by about 50%? You could argue it is one of the few brave things Zuma has done since his election as leader.

A number of points to make in answer to that. Firstly I am aware of Malema's history and character. The fact he was promoted so far within the ANC just illustrates the problem. Malema didn't create or legitimise mob rule in the ANC, rather it was the other way around. Secondly it wasn't 'brave' of Zuma and the ANC to kick out Melema. They were long happy to live with his tactics, the reason he was kicked out was because he had started criticising the President and other ANC officials and attacking the ANC allied government of Botswana. In other words they tolerated him being a thug but had to kick him out when he started attacking them. Thirdly two wrongs don't make a right. ANC political thuggery by Melema doesn't excuse ANC political thuggery against Malema. And finally none of this excuses the actions against the DA which certainly does not have a reputation as a mob rule party.

[Sibboleth]

Democracy is new to South Africa. That it has a somewhat... er... robust political culture isn't terribly surprising, given everything (which doesn't mean that I like it, incidentally). We used to have similar issues here.

[andrewt]

Mar 5, 2014 19:40:42 GMT Devonian said:

In a press release issued last week Ipsos stated that: "...voters intend, to a much greater degree than in previous elections, to split their votes - i.e. vote for different parties on the national and provincial ballots."[...]

The ANC has a clear majority in six of the nine provinces

The DA should keep its majority and control in the Western Cape

Both Gauteng and the Northern Cape will be heavily contested between the ANC and the DA (and other opposition parties who might hold the key to power sharing, especially in Gauteng)

www.politicsweb.co.za/politicsweb/view/politicsweb/en/page71654?oid=511359&sn=Detail&pid=71616

Interesting poll! Gauteng seems more secure for the ANC once you take off the undecided, refused, wont vote and "other". Northern Cape on the other hand looks intriguing. The last election was a clear win for the ANC, with COPE emerging as the main opposition:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Northern_Cape_provincial_election,_2009

Cope has declined substantially since then, showing in that poll as only 5%. DA seems to have taken votes off both COPE (ca. 10%) and the ANC (ca. 15%). Demographically, the majority of Northern Cape is, like West Cape, mixed race.

I wonder if there have been any other polls there.

[psephos]

A ridiculous loadof rubbish masuerading as an election. That a joke party of completely corrupt morons, thatthink lemon juice cures AIDS and necklacing with tyres is to be ignored, is about to be returned with a constitution-amending majority, is loathsome.

Basically this is going to happen for no higher reason than that the corrupt morally bankrupt party in-charge has the same colour skins as the majority of the electorate - policy and the record in givernment matters not a damn compared to skin colour. If politics organised on this basis in any western nation, it woud be called racist, but when it happens in a non white nation it's anti colonialism.

Anyone else prepared to second this analysis, and anyone non-bovine enough to bACK IT?

[Merseymike]

The AIDS issue was very much Mbeki's problem - thankfully once he stood down, the majority view of the party was able to be expressed and denialism has been banished to history.

I think to call the ANC a 'joke party' suggests you have no understanding of South Africa or its history. There is certainly dissatisfaction as the reaction to Zuma at Mandela's memorial indicated but the people are not prepared to shift to another party as yet particularly as there is no credible alternative

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 9, 2014 23:20:54 GMT psephos said:

A ridiculous loadof rubbish masuerading as an election. That a joke party of completely corrupt morons, thatthink lemon juice cures AIDS and necklacing with tyres is to be ignored, is about to be returned with a constitution-amending majority, is loathsome.

Basically this is going to happen for no higher reason than that the corrupt morally bankrupt party in-charge has the same colour skins as the majority of the electorate - policy and the record in givernment matters not a damn compared to skin colour. If politics organised on this basis in any western nation, it woud be called racist, but when it happens in a non white nation it's anti colonialism.

Anyone else prepared to second this analysis, and anyone non-bovine enough to bACK IT?

The analysis is sound but then as someone once said, it isn't terribly surprising, given everything (which doesn't mean that I like it, incidentally)

[andrewt]

Mar 9, 2014 23:20:54 GMT psephos said:

A ridiculous loadof rubbish masuerading as an election. That a joke party of completely corrupt morons, thatthink lemon juice cures AIDS and necklacing with tyres is to be ignored, is about to be returned with a constitution-amending majority, is loathsome.

Basically this is going to happen for no higher reason than that the corrupt morally bankrupt party in-charge has the same colour skins as the majority of the electorate - policy and the record in givernment matters not a damn compared to skin colour. If politics organised on this basis in any western nation, it woud be called racist, but when it happens in a non white nation it's anti colonialism.

Anyone else prepared to second this analysis, and anyone non-bovine enough to bACK IT?

Most countries seem to start their political lives with a single dominant party. It takes time for a competitive electoral culture to develop in which there is a genuine chance that a party of the opposition can become a party of government.

South Africa is a long way from being there. There is no realistic chance that anyone other than the ANC will win a national election there in the next 10-15 years, which is why I would never describe the country as being fully democratic. There is also a chance that if the ANC were to be on the verge of defeat they would respond with violence and authoritarianism, just like ZANU-PF has done in neighbouring ZImbabwe.

However, both India and Malaysia have made the transitions. India has had a number of non-Congress governments now, after a straight 25 years of Congress governments from 1951-77. Malaysia seems on the verge of getting its first non-UMNO government, who have been in government for 50 years now but last year won less than 60% of seats for the first time in history.

In both cases, a key mechanism that helped the countries transition from single-party dominated political systems to multi-party political systems has been the federal system which has allowed opposition parties to gain real power as a stepping stone to national government. The same is possible in South Africa - West Cape is currently run by the opposition DA and they have a real chance of gaining North Cape too. Who knows, Gauteng might one day be achievable if they can persuade the black middle class to support them and kwaZulu-Natal could move back to the opposition if the DA/IFT team up.

So, all good reasons to be hopeful for the future in South Africa and very interested in how these elections work out.

[Devonian]

New opinion poll Ipsos 21 April

ANC 65.5%

DA 23.1%

EFF 4.0%

IFF 2.8%

COPE 1.3%

ACDP 0.8%

FF+ 0.7%

UDM 0.6%

NFP 0.3%

www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2014/04/21/anc-still-riding-high-among-voters-in-spite-of-nkandla-scandal

Support for the three largest parties amongst different racial groups in this poll

Black voters

ANC 83.0%

DA 4.9%

EFF 4.8%

White voters

DA 84.1%

ANC 4.0%

EFF 0.4%

Coloured voters

DA 71.6%

ANC 23.3%

EFF 2.9%

Indian voters

DA 78.4%

ANC 11.7%

[neilm]

Disappointing that COPE are polling so badly. I had high hopes.

[Devonian]

Apr 27, 2014 2:49:12 GMT neilm said:

Disappointing that COPE are polling so badly. I had high hopes.

My impression is that the DA is making a big push for the 'black liberal' vote that ould have gone to COPE in 2009. The shares of the vote in 2009 were

ANC 65.9%

DA 16.7%

COPE 7.4%

IFP 4.6%

So it looks like the DA has not gained much from the ANC but that there has been a big swing directly from COPE to the DA. Having said that I think that COPE may well have played a significant role. If I can speculate a little I notice that in several African countries (South Africa, Namibia, Angola etc) the 'liberation party' continues to be elected by landslides in every election even decades after liberation. Now there are several reasons for this (including of course corruption and electoral malpractice, see Zimbabwe) but I suspect one major reason in all these places is a strong feeling of 'we must vote for the liberation party, they freed us'. I suspect this feeling will be as strong in SA as anywhere, hence them polling 83% of the black vote despite everything.

My speculation would be that for a portion of the 'black liberal' vote switching directly from the ANC to the 'white led' DA would have been step too far and that voting for COPE in 2009 could have enable some of these people to make the emotional break with the ANC which would later enable them to switch to the DA. Does that make sense?

[East Anglian Lefty]

There's also the fact that the 'black liberal' vote is a tiny share of the electorate. Combining them with the white and coloured vote is not going to be enough to beat the ANC. You actually have to attract support from the black working class. The failure of COPE, the DA et al. to accomplish that is partly about race, machine politics and history, but it's also about those parties not presenting anything that particularly appeals to the residents of townships.