neilm
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Post by neilm on Apr 27, 2014 19:08:29 GMT
But, like the barrios in Venezuela, expectations are so low that the occasional bit of government action is viewed positively. And only the ANZ is in a position to deliver x, y or Z just before an election.
Similar situation in Malaysia- only the UMNO will guarantee continued racial preferences.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 27, 2014 22:23:55 GMT
There's also the fact that the 'black liberal' vote is a tiny share of the electorate. Combining them with the white and coloured vote is not going to be enough to beat the ANC. You actually have to attract support from the black working class. The failure of COPE, the DA et al. to accomplish that is partly about race, machine politics and history, but it's also about those parties not presenting anything that particularly appeals to the residents of townships. Could be argued neither has the ANC, shanty towns with populations as big as British city's is shocking. It could be argued, but for now they're voting ANC. That won't change until they're offered something more appealing. And as poor as the ANC is, it's competitors really aren't providing much competition in those areas. |
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johng
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Post by johng on May 6, 2014 12:40:07 GMT
Polling day is tomorrow, and I am surprised by the lack of responses here.
New IPSOS Poll
ANC 63.9%
DA 23.7
EFF 4.7%
COPE 3.4%
Others all below 1%.
The polls also show that while Zuma is personally unpopular, people are still willing to vote ANC.
There is a big proviso with these polls though. That is that South African polling is not very reliable, and is quite unproven compared to the UK. Also, only one big company is doing the polling, so we have no comparisons available to us. The polling is based off telephone polling 500 peoples mobile phones- not a big sample! From memory 2009 polling overestimated the ANC's vote, and underestimated every else’s.
I think the big success for the ANC this year (and in 2009) has been its ability to take votes off the imploding IFP. Mandela and Mbeki were both Xhosa, and many Zulus believe that the presidency has now come home to them (they are the largest ethnic group), and they don't want to lose it. This has helped replace the votes lost to others elsewhere. Also, the polls show that big corruption scandals don't have nearly as much affect on the poor as among whites.
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Post by markgoodair on May 6, 2014 15:23:24 GMT
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neilm
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Post by neilm on May 7, 2014 12:41:44 GMT
Polling day is tomorrow, and I am surprised by the lack of responses here. We already know the result. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2014 13:25:29 GMT
A country that is not really yet a mature democracy. That will take at least a generation.
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johng
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Post by johng on May 7, 2014 13:28:37 GMT
Of course we do. But what is of real interest is whether the polls are correct and the ANC can keep the same, or even increase their vote.
Votes should start coming in from 10pm tonight SA time (9pm UK)
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on May 7, 2014 13:37:46 GMT
Of course we do. But what is of real interest is whether the polls are correct and the ANC can keep the same, or even increase their vote. Votes should start coming in from 10pm tonight SA time (9pm UK) I'm hoping the ANC go below 60%. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 7, 2014 14:20:10 GMT
If they do go below 60%, it'll probably be because Julius Malema has siphoned off many of their votes rather than because the DA has started to make inroads among black South Africans.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on May 7, 2014 14:25:58 GMT
Western media coverage has been predictable amusing.
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johng
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Post by johng on May 7, 2014 19:13:06 GMT
Polls are now closed. Though in some areas there are still large queues, and anyone in a queue by 9 can still vote. The first results should be in within the hour.
It appears that rural turnout will be down slightly, but the urban vote is very strong. Overall I think that day has gone very well for South Africa.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2014 20:15:40 GMT
A country that is not really yet a mature democracy. That will take at least a generation. or go the same way as Zimbabwe. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 7, 2014 20:35:39 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 7, 2014 21:05:58 GMT
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on May 7, 2014 22:13:10 GMT
Latest SA figures - ANC 60%, DA 26%.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 7, 2014 22:54:11 GMT
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neilm
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Post by neilm on May 7, 2014 23:09:01 GMT
That's an impressive turnout.
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on May 7, 2014 23:11:10 GMT
If you're going to rig, usually it's a good idea to cover your tracks a bit better. |
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on May 7, 2014 23:21:51 GMT
What I find slightly worrying is that different websites are all reporting the same results at any given point in time, which means they're all reporting results which are being divulged from a central source, rather than being separately collected from different areas. It's much easier to tamper with results when that is how things are being reported, although I'm not claiming there will be any significant fraud in this particular election.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 7, 2014 23:30:00 GMT
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