Prediction Competition for March 2014

[middleenglander]

Subject to verification

Dartford, Stone
hempie 4.6 faults, tonyotim 7.6, Mark Senior 10.3, Pete Whitehead 4.2+10, brianj & Joe 14.3, peter1 14.6, Robert Waller 5.7+10, PhilDav 17.5, Myth11 18.3, David Boothroyd 20.3

East Ayrshire, Kilmarnock North
hempie & Mark Senior 5.4 faults, Pete Whitehead 6.2, Joe 7.6, tonyotim 8.2, David Boothroyd 9.6, Robert Waller 11.4, PhilDav 15.6, peter1 17.4, brianj 14.3+10, Myth11 36.8+10

Fylde, St John's
Robert Waller 59.5 faults, hempie & Myth11 61.4, PhilDav 72.0, David Boothroyd 70.0+10, Joe 72.0+10, brianj 73.4+10, Pete Whitehead 74.4+10, peter1 75.4+10, Mark Senior 76.0+10, tonyotim 116.4+10

Gedling, Gedling
Pete Whitehead 14.7 faults, Mark Senior 17.4, brianj 17.8, PhilDav 18.1, David Boothroyd & Joe 19.5, Myth11 23.0, tonyotim 24.4, peter1 23.0+10, hempie & Robert Waller 24.7+10

Oxfordshire, Chalgrove & Wallington
PhilDav 21.1 faults, Robert Waller 24.3, Joe & Mark Senior 26.3, Myth11 27.4, tonyotim 28.5, David Boothroyd 31.4, hempie 32.3, Pete Whitehead 32.4, brianj 39.8, peter1 41.8

Sunderland, St Anne's
David Boothroyd 11.8 faults, brianj 21.8, Myth11 25.6, Joe & peter1 27.8, hempie 29.6, Mark Senior 31.6, Pete Whitehead 34.8, Robert Waller 37.8, PhilDav 38.2, tonyotim 39.4

For the week:
hempie 168.0, David Boothroyd 172.6, Mark Senior 177.0, Joe 177.6, PhilDav 182.5, Robert Waller 183.4, Pete Whitehead 186.7, brianj 201.5, Myth11 202.5, peter1 220.0, tonyotim 234.5

and for the month

597.2 Mark Senior
603.0 Joe
616.4 Robert Waller
636.6 hempie

690.6 Pete Whitehead
720.1 David Boothroyd
727.4 PhilDav
748.4 Myth11

801.7 tonyotim
918.3 brianj
943.6 peter1

Partial scripts were also submitted by barctom & Arthur Figgis

Objections please by 5.00 pm Saturday

New thread for the limited number of April contests.

[Pete Whitehead]

There's some harsh faults in Fylde. Is there not a convention that faults are capped at 100 so that a bad prediction should not attract more faults than no prediction. I think the 126.4 faults assigned to Tony in Fylde may be a record (apologies to him for pointing it out)

[Tony Otim]

Mar 28, 2014 8:56:57 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

There's some harsh faults in Fylde. Is there not a convention that faults are capped at 100 so that a bad prediction should not attract more faults than no prediction. I think the 126.4 faults assigned to Tony in Fylde may be a record (apologies to him for pointing it out)

No apologies needed. I completely f***ed that one up. TBH, I'd kind of given up on this month anyway and didn't do an research there, hence completely missing the link between the indy and the ratepayers. I accept the score and the abject humiliation. Try harder next month...

[Pete Whitehead]

Congratulations to Hempie for the week and Mark for the month - also Joe. Another very close finish for first

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I wonder if we oughtn't to adjust for the number of candidates in an individual contest. The reason why Fylde faults were so high is not only that the Fylde Ratepayers won big when no-one was expecting them, it was also that there were five candidates, so any error is magnified five times. If there are only two candidates any error is magnified only two times.

[Tony Otim]

Congratulations to Hempie for the week and Mark for the month.

[Tony Otim]

Mar 28, 2014 9:25:54 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I wonder if we oughtn't to adjust for the number of candidates in an individual contest. The reason why Fylde faults were so high is not only that the Fylde Ratepayers won big when no-one was expecting them, it was also that there were five candidates, so any error is magnified five times. If there are only two candidates any error is magnified only two times.

I'm not sure it actually works that way - in a two horse race if you grossly underestimate the vote for one candidate, you will have grossly overestimated the other. In a five sided contest those overstimation faults will be distributed among the other 4 parties but the total will probably be not all that much different. In this case I just royally f***ed with the ratepayers and would have had a hige score however many other candidates there were.

[hempie]

Well done Mark - a good win!

[marksenior]

Fortunate but pleased to hang on with the Fylde debacle costing us all a shedload of faults .

[middleenglander]

Amended as Conservative vote in East Ayrshire was 493 and not 430 reported last night

Dartford, Stone
hempie 4.6 faults, tonyotim 7.6, Mark Senior 10.3, Pete Whitehead 4.2+10, brianj & Joe 14.3, peter1 14.6, Robert Waller 5.7+10, PhilDav 17.5, Myth11 18.3, David Boothroyd 20.3

East Ayrshire, Kilmarnock North
hempie 7.1 faults, Pete Whitehead 8.2, Mark Senior 8.7, Joe 9.6, tonyotim 10.2, David Boothroyd 12.7, Robert Waller 14.7, PhilDav 17.6, peter1 19.1, brianj 15.1+10, Myth11 33.3+10

Fylde, St John's
Robert Waller 59.5 faults, hempie & Myth11 61.4, PhilDav 72.0, David Boothroyd 70.0+10, Joe 72.0+10, brianj 73.4+10, Pete Whitehead 74.4+10, peter1 75.4+10, Mark Senior 76.0+10, tonyotim 116.4+10

Gedling, Gedling
Pete Whitehead 14.7 faults, Mark Senior 17.4, brianj 17.8, PhilDav 18.1, David Boothroyd & Joe 19.5, Myth11 23.0, tonyotim 24.4, peter1 23.0+10, hempie & Robert Waller 24.7+10

Oxfordshire, Chalgrove & Wallington
PhilDav 21.1 faults, Robert Waller 24.3, Joe & Mark Senior 26.3, Myth11 27.4, tonyotim 28.5, David Boothroyd 31.4, hempie 32.3, Pete Whitehead 32.4, brianj 39.8, peter1 41.8

Sunderland, St Anne's
David Boothroyd 11.8 faults, brianj 21.8, Myth11 25.6, Joe & peter1 27.8, hempie 29.6, Mark Senior 31.6, Pete Whitehead 34.8, Robert Waller 37.8, PhilDav 38.2, tonyotim 39.4

For the week:
hempie 169.6, David Boothroyd 175.8, Joe 179.6, Mark Senior 180.3, PhilDav 184.5, Robert Waller 186.7, Pete Whitehead 188.7, Myth11 199.0, brianj 202.3, peter1 221.7, tonyotim 236.4

and for the month

600.5 Mark Senior
605.0 Joe
619.7 Robert Waller
638.3 hempie

692.8 Pete Whitehead
723.2 David Boothroyd
729.3 PhilDav
744.9 Myth11

803.6 tonyotim
919.0 brianj
945.3 peter1

Partial scripts were also submitted by barctom & Arthur Figgis

Objections please by 5.00 pm Saturday

New thread for the limited number of April by-elections.

[middleenglander]

Mar 28, 2014 8:56:57 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

There's some harsh faults in Fylde. Is there not a convention that faults are capped at 100 so that a bad prediction should not attract more faults than no prediction. I think the 126.4 faults assigned to Tony in Fylde may be a record (apologies to him for pointing it out)

I did consider capping Tony at 100 but then the differential between him and Mark did not look adequate giving the overall error in predicting. In any case it was academic to the overall positioning.

[Deleted]

Mar 30, 2014 16:56:50 GMT middleenglander said:

Mar 28, 2014 8:56:57 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

There's some harsh faults in Fylde. Is there not a convention that faults are capped at 100 so that a bad prediction should not attract more faults than no prediction. I think the 126.4 faults assigned to Tony in Fylde may be a record (apologies to him for pointing it out)

I did consider capping Tony at 100 but then the differential between him and Mark did not look adequate giving the overall error in predicting. In any case it was academic to the overall positioning.

Maybe no prediction could attract 100 faults or the worst prediction + 20 (e.g.) whichever is the lower.

[Tony Otim]

Ok - can we all please stop discussing this now...