Prediction Competition for March 2014

[Robert Waller]

Mar 14, 2014 14:32:51 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Thanks Robert. I used to add up the scores myself but haven't been doing that lately so I'm awaiting the rest of ME's reports with baited breath. I felt I had done OK this week but was annoyed about Runnymede really because I totally allowed my heart to overrule my head there, something I very rarely do

My way of balancing head and heart goes the other way.
For example, in the non-league football forum prediction competition I run, I myself always predict that the team I support (Buxton FC) loses. That way I feel I win either way!

[Deleted]

Mar 14, 2014 18:28:39 GMT Tony Otim said:

Congratulations to Joe, Robert and Pete.

I think I'll try to forget my performance this week rather quickly...

if its going to be anyone i am glad it is a right winger like joe.

[Deleted]

Mar 14, 2014 22:10:55 GMT @barctom said:

Mar 14, 2014 18:28:39 GMT Tony Otim said:

Congratulations to Joe, Robert and Pete.

I think I'll try to forget my performance this week rather quickly...

if its going to be anyone i am glad it is a right winger like joe.

Im afraid you may be disappointed given the end of the month, given that my closest competitor is a respected author, former Oxford fellow and pollster and I am essentially the least knowledgeable poster guessing!

[Robert Waller]

'my closest competitor is a respected author, former Oxford fellow and pollster'

I can assure you that's never helped me much in this competition!

[myth11]

BROADLAND - Wroxham



Alex CASSAM (Liberal Democrats)35

Malcolm KEMP (Labour Party Candidate)13

David MORELAND (UK Independence Party)20

Fran WHYMARK (The Conservative Party Candidate)32



RUSHCLIFFE - Gamston



Matthew FAITHFULL (UK Independence Party)15

Alan HARDWICK (Labour Party Candidate)25

Davinder VIRDI (Liberal Democrat)10

Jonathan WHEELER (The Conservative Party Candidate)50



STAFFORDSHIRE MOORLANDS - Cellarhead



Jean HODGETTS (Staffordshire Independent Group)35

Barbara HUGHES (The Conservative Party Candidate)30

Jocelyn MORRISON (The Labour Party Candidate)15

Alex POVEY (UK Independence Party)15

Phil ROUTLEDGE (Liberal Democrats)5



TORRIDGE - Bideford East



James CRAIGIE (Labour Party Candidate)20

Dermot MCGEOUGH (Conservative Party Candidate)30

David RATCLIFF (Independent)5

Sam ROBINSON (Independent)15

Alan SMITH (Independent)5

Bob WOOTTON (Liberal Democrats)25

[Deleted]

Broadland

Lib dem 40
Lab 10
UKIP 15
Con 35

Rushcliffe

Con 50
Lab 35
lib dem 5
Ukip 10

Staffordshire moorlands

Sig 30
Con 35
Lab 15
UKIP 15
Lib dem 5

Torridge

Lab 10
Con 35
Ind david 5
Ind sam 20
Ind alan 5
Lib dem 25

[Robert Waller]

BROADLAND - Wroxham

Alex CASSAM (Liberal Democrats)38

Malcolm KEMP (Labour Party Candidate) 7

David MORELAND (UK Independence Party)20

Fran WHYMARK (The Conservative Party Candidate)35



RUSHCLIFFE - Gamston


Matthew FAITHFULL (UK Independence Party) 20

Alan HARDWICK (Labour Party Candidate) 22

Davinder VIRDI (Liberal Democrat) 5

Jonathan WHEELER (The Conservative Party Candidate)53



STAFFORDSHIRE MOORLANDS - Cellarhead



Jean HODGETTS (Staffordshire Independent Group)28

Barbara HUGHES (The Conservative Party Candidate)24

Jocelyn MORRISON (The Labour Party Candidate)24

Alex POVEY (UK Independence Party)21

Phil ROUTLEDGE (Liberal Democrats)3



TORRIDGE - Bideford East


James CRAIGIE (Labour Party Candidate) 8

Dermot MCGEOUGH (Conservative Party Candidate)34

David RATCLIFF (Independent)10

Sam ROBINSON (Independent)33

Alan SMITH (Independent)4

Bob WOOTTON (Liberal Democrats)11



Please note: edited before anyone else posted.

[marksenior]

Broadland LD 40 Con 32 UKIP 20 Lab 8
Rushcliffe Con 45 UKIP 23 Lab 22 LD 10
Staffs Moorlands SIG 29 Con 26 Lab 23 UKIP 19 LD 3
Torridge Ind Robinson 33 Con 25 Lab 17 LD 14 Ind Ratcliff 6 Ind Smith 5

[Deleted]

Broadland
Lib Dem 42
Con 28
UKIP 19
Lab 9

Rushcliffe
Con 45
Lab 25
UKIP 21
LD 9

Staffs Moorlands
Staff Ind 27
Con 24
UKIP 23
Lab 22
LD 4

Torridge
Con 30
Robinson 27
Lab 16
LD 13
Ratcliff 9
Smith 5

[brianj]

If at first you don't succeed, I'd like to compete against you.

Broadland: LibDem 32, Con 28, UKIP 24, Lab 16.
Rushcliffe: Con 40, UKIP 30, Lab 25, LibDem 5.
Staffordshire Moorlands: StaffInd 37, Con 27, UKIP 17, Lab 10, LibDem 9.
Torridge: Robinson 32, Con 27, Lab 15, Ratcliff 13, Smith 8, LibDem 5.

[peterl]

Broadland
Lib Dem 37
Con 32
UKIP 25
Lab 8

Rushcliffe
Con 39
UKIP 30
Lab 25
LD 6

Staffs Moorlands
UKIP 27
Staff Ind 25
Con 24
Lab 20
LD 4

Torridge
Robinson 29
Con 28
Lab 16
Ratcliff 11
LD 10
Smith 6

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BROADLAND Wroxham: L Dem 41, C 28, UKIP 21, Lab 10
RUSHCLIFFE Gamston: C 50, Lab 29, UKIP 14, L Dem 7
STAFFORDSHIRE MOORLANDS Cellarhead: SIG 31, UKIP 25, C 22, Lab 16, L Dem 6
TORRIDGE Bideford East: Ind Robinson 25, C 22, Ind Ratcliff 20, L Dem 16, Lab 13, Ind Smith 4

[hempie]

Broadland, Wroxham: LD 49, Con 28, UKIP 16, Lab 7
Rushcliffe, Gamston: Con 53, Lab 27, UKIP 12, LD 8
Staffordshire Moorlands, Cellarhead: SIG 34, Con 28, UKIP 19, Lab 15, LD 4
Torridge, Bideford East: Ind Robinson 35, C 26, Ind Ratcliff 12, LD 11, Lab 8, Ind Smith 8

[Philip Davies]

Mar 19, 2014 23:33:29 GMT Philip Davies said:

BROADLAND - Wroxham

Alex CASSAM (Liberal Democrats) 43.5
Malcolm KEMP (Labour Party Candidate) 13.8
David MORELAND (UK Independence Party) 18.4
Fran WHYMARK (The Conservative Party Candidate) 24.3


RUSHCLIFFE - Gamston

Matthew FAITHFULL (UK Independence Party) 8.6
Alan HARDWICK (Labour Party Candidate) 36.3
Davinder VIRDI (Liberal Democrat) 6.0
Jonathan WHEELER (The Conservative Party Candidate) 49.1


STAFFORDSHIRE MOORLANDS - Cellarhead

Jean HODGETTS (Staffordshire Independent Group) 36.8
Barbara HUGHES (The Conservative Party Candidate) 31.0
Jocelyn MORRISON (The Labour Party Candidate) 15.2
Alex POVEY (UK Independence Party) 13.5
Phil ROUTLEDGE (Liberal Democrats) 3.5


TORRIDGE - Bideford East

James CRAIGIE (Labour Party Candidate) 16.6
Dermot MCGEOUGH (Conservative Party Candidate) 32.7
David RATCLIFF (Independent) 10.0
Sam ROBINSON (Independent) 20.0
Alan SMITH (Independent) 5.0
Bob WOOTTON (Liberal Democrats) 15.7

[Tony Otim]

Mar 18, 2014 17:30:03 GMT Tony Otim said:

Broadland:

LD 37.6
Con 31.2
UKIP 20.4
Lab 10.8

Rushcliffe:
Con 43.1
Lab 32.7
UKIP 18.8
LD 5.4


Staffordshire Moorlands:
SIG 40.2
Con 35.7
UKIP 14.2
Lab 7.7
LD 2.2


Torridge:
Con 29.2
Ind Rob 27.8
LD 23.8
Lab 11.3
Ind Ra 4.5
Ind Sm 3.4

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 19, 2014 22:24:12 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Broadland DC - Wroxham

Con  35.9%
LD    35.3%
UKIP 17.7%
Lab   11.1%


Rushcliffe DC - Gamston

Con  50.7%
Lab  28.2%
UKIP 11.3%
LD     9.8%


Staffordshire Moorlands DC - Cellarhead

Con        29.4%
Staff Ind 25.6%
UKIP       23.0%
Lab        16.8%
LD           5.2%


Torridge DC - Bideford E

LD       24.9%
Ind Ro 21.1%
Con     18.7%
Ind Ra 15.6%
Lab      15.2%
Ind Sm  4.5%

A fairly nightmarish set of elections to predict. Let's just say I'm confident the Tories will win in Rushcliffe - the rest could see me slide right back down to the bottom of the listings this week but (less likely) could propel me to the top

[marksenior]

Agree a difficult set of elections could easily get 3 wrong winners , Rushcliffe is I think as you do the one with a clear favourite .

[middleenglander]

There are 12 entries this week (nothing from Arthur Figgis)with Joe having 2 additional faults for adding to 98% in Broadlands, Wroxham whilst peter1 also gets 2% additional faults for adding to 98% in the same ward.

Broadlands - 11 Lib Dem hold, with majorities over Conservative from 3% (Myth11 & Robert Waller) to 21% (hempie) whilst Pete Whitehead has a Conservative gain
Rushcliffe - 100% Conservative hold with all except brianj, Mark Senior and peter1 expecting Labour to be runner up
Staffordshire Moorlands - 9 Staffs Independent hold with barctom & Pete Whitehead a Conservative gain and peter1 a UKIP gain
Torridge - 6 Conservative win, brianj, David Boothroyd, hempie, Mark Senior & peter1 a Ind Robinson win with Pete Whitehead a Lib Dem win

[Pete Whitehead]

The Wroxham byelection in 2009 was in one of the first (if not the first) months that we held a prediction competition. I remember it because I was the only person to correctly predict a LD gain. Whether I am correct in my prediction this week or not, there is a certain nice symmetry to the situation

[Deleted]

Here comes the Whitehead Surge.