Prediction Competition for March 2014

[middleenglander]

East Hants, Petersfield Bell Hill
Joe 7.0 faults, barctom 8.0, Mark Senior 8.4, brianj 9.0, Arthur Figgis 11.4, tonyotim 12.2, Myth11 13.0, Robert Waller 14.4, Pete Whitehead 16.2, hempie 17.0, PhilDav 17.8, David Boothroyd 20.0, peter1 100

Hampshire, Petersfield Butser
tonyotim 7.7 faults, Mark Senior 8.6, Joe 9.3, barctom 9.4, Arthgur Figgis 10.3, Pete Whitehead 11.5, hempie 13.1, Robert Waller 15.3, David Boothroyd 19.1, PhilDav 20.5, Myth11 20.5 33.5, brianj 32.7+10, peter1 100

so after the first 2 of 10 by-elections in week 2

159.1 barctom
161.6 Joe
163.1 Myth11
174.6 tonyotim
176.7 Mark Senior

178.3 Robert Waller
189.4 hempie
204.3 PhilDav
208.8 David Boothroyd
223.8 Arthur Figgis

226.5 Pete Whitehead
280.8 brianj
381.2 peter1

Further update tonight / tomorrow

[Deleted]

Mar 13, 2014 10:57:50 GMT middleenglander said:

East Hants, Petersfield Bell Hill
Joe 7.0 faults, barctom 8.0, Mark Senior 8.4, brianj 9.0, Arthur Figgis 11.4, tonyotim 12.2, Myth11 13.0, Robert Waller 14.4, Pete Whitehead 16.2, hempie 17.0, PhilDav 17.8, David Boothroyd 20.0, peter1 100

Hampshire, Petersfield Butser
tonyotim 7.7 faults, Mark Senior 8.6, Joe 9.3, barctom 9.4, Arthgur Figgis 10.3, Pete Whitehead 11.5, hempie 13.1, Robert Waller 15.3, David Boothroyd 19.1, PhilDav 20.5, Myth11 33.5, brianj 32.7+10, peter1 100

so after the first 2 of 10 by-elections in week 2

159.1 barctom
161.6 Joe
163.1 Myth11
174.6 tonyotim
176.7 Mark Senior

178.3 Robert Waller
189.4 hempie
204.3 PhilDav
208.8 David Boothroyd
223.8 Arthur Figgis

226.5 Pete Whitehead
280.8 brianj
381.2 peter1

Further update tonight / tomorrow

we are top of the league, we are top of the league!

Some people should be hanging their head in shame, losing to a political novice :-P

[Deleted]

Mar 13, 2014 11:06:22 GMT @barctom said:

Mar 13, 2014 10:57:50 GMT middleenglander said:

East Hants, Petersfield Bell Hill
Joe 7.0 faults, barctom 8.0, Mark Senior 8.4, brianj 9.0, Arthur Figgis 11.4, tonyotim 12.2, Myth11 13.0, Robert Waller 14.4, Pete Whitehead 16.2, hempie 17.0, PhilDav 17.8, David Boothroyd 20.0, peter1 100

Hampshire, Petersfield Butser
tonyotim 7.7 faults, Mark Senior 8.6, Joe 9.3, barctom 9.4, Arthgur Figgis 10.3, Pete Whitehead 11.5, hempie 13.1, Robert Waller 15.3, David Boothroyd 19.1, PhilDav 20.5, Myth11 33.5, brianj 32.7+10, peter1 100

so after the first 2 of 10 by-elections in week 2

159.1 barctom
161.6 Joe
163.1 Myth11
174.6 tonyotim
176.7 Mark Senior

178.3 Robert Waller
189.4 hempie
204.3 PhilDav
208.8 David Boothroyd
223.8 Arthur Figgis

226.5 Pete Whitehead
280.8 brianj
381.2 peter1

Further update tonight / tomorrow

we are top of the league, we are top of the league!

Some people should be hanging their head in shame, losing to a political novice :-P

All top 3 are pretty new players. In my case, it is total luck and I shall be heading back down the leaderboard to my home in the lowermid table, probably after tonights results!

[Arthur Figgis]

Bugger, I've just realised it's Thursday today. Yesterday's by-elections threw me, and I forgot there were more. Great...

[Deleted]

Mar 13, 2014 13:43:51 GMT Arthur Figgis said:

Bugger, I've just realised it's Thursday today. Yesterday's by-elections threw me, and I forgot there were more. Great...

get your guesses in.

[middleenglander]

12 entries for today's element of the contest with peter1 reappearing but Arthur Figgis admitting he does not know what day it is. brianj gets 10 additional faults for adding to 110% in Canterbury.

Amber Valley: 100% Labour hold with 7 predicting UKIP comes second, 5 the Conservative
Canterbury: 7 Lib Dem gain with brianj, David Boothroyd, Myth11, peter1 and Robert Waller a Conservative hold
Cheshire East: 100% Labour hold with 7 UKIP second and 5 the Conservative
Knowsley: 100% Labour hold with the share ranging from 75% (peter1) to 90.2 (tonyotim)
Luton: 100% Labour hold with 9 Conservative second, 3 UKIP
Runnymede: 7 Conservative hold with brianj, Joe, Myth11, peter1 and Pete Whitehead a UKIP gain
Shropshire: 7 Lib Dem gain with barctom, brianj, hempie, peter1 and tonyotim a Conservative hold
South Kesteven: 100% Conservative hold with share ranging from 65% (David Boothroyd) to 84.9% (PhilDav)

[Sibboleth]

Those making predictions for Ludlow should note that the Independent is effectively an Independent Conservative.

[Robert Waller]

True enough, but I believe he got 13% when choosing to stand in the other Ludlow ward in the last Shropshire elections.
So I reckoned he may be a little weaker this time, especially in a close c - LD contest.

Time will tell.

[Sibboleth]

Oh I wasn't suggesting that he'd do well - I would be genuinely horrified if he did, actually. Aggressive busybodies are just the worst - just posting a useful reminder wrt other calculations (maybe).

[Sibboleth]

Count me genuinely horrified, I guess. But Ludlow Tories losing = a good thing (always), so, meh.

[Deleted]

Mar 14, 2014 0:18:23 GMT Sibboleth said:

Count me genuinely horrified, I guess. But Ludlow Tories losing = a good thing (always), so, meh.

Your blog: I wanted to see if I was among the 5% 

Is it pronounced something like Eff-rem

[Deleted]

Runneymede might well be costing me first place.

[middleenglander]

Very provisional with the one result in South Kesteven to come, I make in Joe in the lead 10 faults ahead of Robert Waller with Mark Senior third a further 16.2 behind followed by Hempie, PhilDav barctom and the field.

Full analysis tomorrow sometime

With the last result in it looks like Joe around 6 faults ahead of Robert Waller with Mark Senior lying third then hempie, Pete Whitehead and barctom.

[Robert Waller]

I think congratulations for the week may well be due to Pete W, who I feel had easily the best set of predictions overall.

This means that he shoots up the table after his horrendous Horlicks last week!

[Pete Whitehead]

Thanks Robert. I used to add up the scores myself but haven't been doing that lately so I'm awaiting the rest of ME's reports with baited breath. I felt I had done OK this week but was annoyed about Runnymede really because I totally allowed my heart to overrule my head there, something I very rarely do

[Deleted]

For the week

Me: 156.8
Robert Waller: 159.6
Pete Whitehead: 166.2

[Robert Waller]

Ah yes, sorry, Joe.
I forgot that 'the week' should include Wednesday's two byelections.
You are definitely the best over the whole week, and, of course, now ahead for the month.
Congratulations. As have said before, it's great to have new blood entering.

[Deleted]

Mar 14, 2014 17:45:29 GMT Robert Waller said:

Ah yes, sorry, Joe.
I forgot that 'the week' should include Wednesday's two byelections.
You are definitely the best over the whole week, and, of course, now ahead for the month.
Congratulations. As have said before, it's great to have new blood entering.

You won Thursday rather than Pete (who narrowly beat me into 3rd) I think

[middleenglander]

Amber Valley, Heanor West
Joe 2.6 faults, Mark Senior 6.8, Pete Whitehead 7.6, Robert Waller 7.9, Myth11 8.8, hempie 10.1, tonyotim 11.4, barctom 16.6, PhilDav 16.8, David Boothroyd 18.0, brianj 18.7, peter1 19.2

Canterbury, Barnham Downs
Mark Senior 3.9 faults, Pete Whitehead 6.6, Joe 7.3, PhilDav 9.8, hempie 10.3, tonyotim 10.6, barctom 11.6, Robert Waller 12.1+10, David Boothroyd 13.8+10, Myth11 22.8+10, peter1 27.8+10, brianj 39.6+10+10

Cheshire East, Crewe West
peter1 13.7 faults, Robert Waller 14.0, Joe 17.9, Pete Whitehead 22.3, brianj 25.5, hempie & Mark Senior 27.5, PhilDav 29.1, Myth11 31.7, barctom 35.7, David Boothroyd 37.7, tonyotim 39.9

Knowsley, Longview
Robert Waller 26.4 faults, Pete Whitehead 28.4, Joe 29.2, peter1 33.2, PhilDav 34.4, David Boothroyd 35.2, Myth11 37.2, Mark Senior 39.2, brianj 41.2, barctom & hempie 43.2, tonyotim 52.0

Luton, Farley
hempie & peter1 23.0 faults, Pete Whitehead 24.9, David Boothroyd 28.5, Joe 29.0, Robert Waller 29.6, PhilDav 29.8, tonyotim 31.6, brianj & Mark Senior 37.0, Myth11 41.0, barctom 41.6

Runnymede, Chertsey Meads
Robert Waller 4.9 faults, barctom 7.3, Mark Senior 9.6, hempie 11.6, PhilDav 14.1, David Boothroyd 14.7, tonyotim 16.8, Pete Whitehead 18.6+10, peter1 19.6+10, Myth11 22.3+10, Joe 22.9+10, brianj 23.0+10

Shropshire, Ludlow North
Joe 14.9 faults, PhilDav 15.5, Pete Whitehead 17.3, David Boothroyd 18.6, Mark Senior 20.9, Robert Waller 22.2, Myth11 29.5, hempie 25.5+10, peter1 27.5+10, barctom 35.5+10, tonyotim 36.9+10, brianj 45.5+10

South Kesteven, Aveland
Myth11 1.2 faults, Pete Whitehead 2.4, Robert Waller 2.8, hempie 4.8, Mark Senior 5.2, Jo 6.8, brianj 9.2 tonyotim 10.0, barctom 11.2, peter1 17.2, PhilDav 18.6, David Boothroyd 21.2

and for the 8 by-elections on Thursday:

Robert Waller 130.1 faults, Pete Whitehead 138.0, Joe 140.8, Mark Senior 150.1, hempie 166.1, PhilDav 168.1, David Boothroyd 197.5, peter1 211.1, barctom 212.7, Myth11 214.5, tonyotim 219.2, brianj 279.8

and for the month to date

302.4 Joe
308.4 Robert Waller
326.9 Mark Senior
355.5 hempie
364.5 Pete Whitehead

371.7 barctom
372.4 PhilDav
377.6 Myth11
393.8 tonyotim
406.4 David Boothroyd

560.6 brianj
592.3 peter1
1023.8 Arthur Figgis

Note that I have amended the faults for Myth11 in Hampshire but it did not affect his cumulative score as it was a mis-typing on this thread.
Also the UKIP vote in Cheshire East was actually one lower than reported last night.

Objections please by noon Sunday.
Four contests next Thursday. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of by-election.

[Tony Otim]

Congratulations to Joe, Robert and Pete.

I think I'll try to forget my performance this week rather quickly...