Pimpernal
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A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
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Post by Pimpernal on May 3, 2014 16:42:24 GMT
I think this is more realistic than the other recent Euro Polls... Note the VI question was not quite the standard one . It is debatable that the slight variation in wording is a slight prompt for Greens and other minor parties . Just checking but, are you including UKIP in the 'other minor parties' on this one?
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Post by marksenior on May 3, 2014 20:45:11 GMT
Note the VI question was not quite the standard one . It is debatable that the slight variation in wording is a slight prompt for Greens and other minor parties . Just checking but, are you including UKIP in the 'other minor parties' on this one? No
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2014 22:14:25 GMT
New YouGov for Sunday Times
UKIP 29% Lab 28% Con 22% Grn 8% LD 7%
UKIP and Labour switching places on yesterdays YouGov - minor movement though.
Greens ahead of Lib Dems although we've seen this before in Scotland and that came to naught - again insignificant
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Post by marksenior on May 4, 2014 7:24:00 GMT
New YouGov for Sunday Times UKIP 29% Lab 28% Con 22% Grn 8% LD 7% UKIP and Labour switching places on yesterdays YouGov - minor movement though. Greens ahead of Lib Dems although we've seen this before in Scotland and that came to naught - again insignificant 2 polls on same day , for ST and Sun on Sunday Euro figures for SoS UKIP 29 Lab 26 Con 23 LD 10 Green 7
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Post by Devonian on May 4, 2014 7:57:50 GMT
Certainty to vote 10/10
Sunday Times
UKIP 34% Lab 26% Con 20% Green 9% LD 7% SNP/PC 3% Other 1%
Sun on Sunday
UKIP 34% Lab 28% Con 19% LD 8% Green 6% SNP/PC 1% BNP 1% Other 1%
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Post by Devonian on May 4, 2014 8:16:16 GMT
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Post by Devonian on May 4, 2014 8:58:33 GMT
Data includes the following. I've listed the headline figures for each question and then put the figures for people intending to vote UKIP in the general election in brackets
Do you think Farage would make a better or worse Prime Minister than Cameron?
Better 14% (65%) Worse 54% (5%) Same 18% (18%)
Do you think Farage would make a better or worse Prime Minister than Milliband?
Better 26% (83%) Worse 45% (2%) Same 17% (10%)
Do you think UKIP is more or less likely than other parties to have candidates with racist or offensive views?
More likely 58% (13%) Less likely 3% (5%) No different 29% (79%)
Do you think UKIP MEPs are more or less likely than politicians from other parties to have fiddled expenses?
More likely 16% (2%) Less likely 10% (25%) No different 62% (70%)
In recent weeks accusations have been made that some UKIP candidates have extreme, offensive or racist views. Do you think these accusations fair and have they changed you view of UKIP
Fair and have made me think more negatively about UKIP 21% (2%) Fair but have not changed my views of UKIP 39% (21%) Unfair and have not changed my view of UKIP 14% (28%) Unfair and have made me think more positively of UKIP 8% (37%)
In recent weeks accusations have been made that Nigel Farage and other UKIP MEPs have taken advantage of their expenses to employer family members and claim more than they should. Do you think these accusations fair and have they changed you view of UKIP
Fair and have made me think more negatively about UKIP 22% (2%) Fair but have not changed my views of UKIP 35% (26%) Unfair and have not changed my view of UKIP 13% (29%) Unfair and have made me think more positively of UKIP 5% (22%)
Thinking about criticisms of UKIP made in recent weeks do you think that you think that they are
Mostly valid criticisms made by people who are genuinely concerned that UKIP is extreme, racist or corrupt? 27% (1%) Mostly being made for political purposes by people opposed to UKIP but are still valid criticisms 30% (10%) Mostly being made for political purposes by people opposed to UKIP and mostly trumped up or exaggerated 25% (66%) Almost entirely false and a deliberate smear campaign by opponents of UKIP 4% (17%)
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Post by finsobruce on May 4, 2014 9:08:04 GMT
Data includes the following. I've listed the headline figures for each question and then put the figures for people intending to vote UKIP in the general election in brackets
Do you think Farage would make a better or worse Prime Minister than Cameron?
Better 14% (65%) Worse 54% (5%) Same 18% (18%)
Do you think Farage would make a better or worse Prime Minister than Milliband?
Better 26% (83%) Worse 45% (2%) Same 17% (10%)
Do you think UKIP is more or less likely than other parties to have candidates with racist or offensive views?
More likely 58% (13%) Less likely 3% (5%) No different 29% (79%)
Do you think UKIP MEPs are more or less likely than politicians from other parties to have fiddled expenses?
More likely 16% (2%) Less likely 10% (25%) No different 62% (70%)
In recent weeks accusations have been made that some UKIP candidates have extreme, offensive or racist views. Do you think these accusations fair and have they changed you view of UKIP
Fair and have made me think more negatively about UKIP 21% (2%) Fair but have not changed my views of UKIP 39% (21%) Unfair and have not changed my view of UKIP 14% (28%) Unfair and have made me think more positively of UKIP 8% (37%)
In recent weeks accusations have been made that Nigel Farage and other UKIP MEPs have taken advantage of their expenses to employer family members and claim more than they should. Do you think these accusations fair and have they changed you view of UKIP
Fair and have made me think more negatively about UKIP 22% (2%) Fair but have not changed my views of UKIP 35% (26%) Unfair and have not changed my view of UKIP 13% (29%) Unfair and have made me think more positively of UKIP 5% (22%)
Thinking about criticisms of UKIP made in recent weeks do you think that you think that they are
Mostly valid criticisms made by people who are genuinely concerned that UKIP is extreme, racist or corrupt? 27% (1%) Mostly being made for political purposes by people opposed to UKIP but are still valid criticisms 30% (10%) Mostly being made for political purposes by people opposed to UKIP and mostly trumped up or exaggerated 25% (66%) Almost entirely false and a deliberate smear campaign by opponents of UKIP 4% (17%)
Is that about what you expected?
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Post by Devonian on May 4, 2014 9:16:06 GMT
Is that about what you expected? Nothing there that I find particularly surprising but its interesting to see the figures. Are the figures about what you would expect?
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Post by finsobruce on May 4, 2014 9:27:38 GMT
I think it's about what I'd expect too. A lot of people think it's just part of the rough and tumble of politics and (as we know) a lot aren't paying it as much attention to it as we all do....
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2014 10:14:53 GMT
also do we really expect every party to check every post a candidate has made on twitter, say I was picked someone across three accounts would have to check some 60k of posts.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 4, 2014 12:37:36 GMT
It also fits with what we'd expect of UKIP supporters - these are people with a deep dislike and suspicion of the media and the three main parties. For many of those voters, it doesn't matter how much UKIP is attacked or how serious the accusations are. To the extent they're even noticed, the attacks will just make people think there must be some reason to support UKIP.
The 10/10 filter is also interesting. Has any work been done to assess how useful a filter it is? I do have to wonder how good the electorate actually are at assessing their own likelihood to vote.
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Post by marksenior on May 4, 2014 15:22:19 GMT
A 10/10 filter is silly as no one is 100% certain that they will vote unless they have already sent in a postal vote . I am 9/10 certain but I may fall under a bus or be ill etc so 10/10 would be false .
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2014 15:37:33 GMT
A 10/10 filter is silly as no one is 100% certain that they will vote unless they have already sent in a postal vote . I am 9/10 certain but I may fall under a bus or be ill etc so 10/10 would be false . Or, given the age demographic of a large proportion of UKIP's regular vote base, die of natural causes.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2014 18:16:35 GMT
A 10/10 filter is silly as no one is 100% certain that they will vote unless they have already sent in a postal vote . I am 9/10 certain but I may fall under a bus or be ill etc so 10/10 would be false . If you are greater than 95% sure that you will vote, you should respond 10.
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Post by iainbhx on May 4, 2014 20:20:18 GMT
A 10/10 filter is silly as no one is 100% certain that they will vote unless they have already sent in a postal vote . I am 9/10 certain but I may fall under a bus or be ill etc so 10/10 would be false . Or, given the age demographic of a large proportion of UKIP's regular vote base, die of natural causes. An unpleasant and unworthy remark.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2014 21:22:03 GMT
An unpleasant and unworthy remark. Not to mention, inaccurate. Actually, reread it - I was referring to the regular (as in, not recent) demographic which is older. I meant it lightheartedly and intended no offence, so apologise if any was caused.
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Post by greenchristian on May 5, 2014 8:21:26 GMT
Actually, reread it - I was referring to the regular (as in, not recent) demographic which is older. I meant it lightheartedly and intended no offence, so apologise if any was caused. No, I know it wasn't said in malice. What I did pick up though, perhaps unfairly, or mistakenly, was a belief on your part that Kippers are old because the party attracts people with out of date ideas? People who yearn for the past? You've just described the stereotypical UKIP voter there. I suspect that a much larger proportion of UKIP voters are "yearn for the past" types than other parties. As to whether such voters are the majority of UKIP's support base, you'd have to ask a pollster or two.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 5, 2014 8:45:54 GMT
It's an established fact that UKIP voters tend to be older and most studies suggest their voters are disproportionately likely to take a negative attitude towards developments of recent decades. That's not of course always the same as having 'out of date' ideas, which as you've shown is predominantly a value judgement.
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cefin
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Post by cefin on May 5, 2014 10:25:16 GMT
No, I know it wasn't said in malice. What I did pick up though, perhaps unfairly, or mistakenly, was a belief on your part that Kippers are old because the party attracts people with out of date ideas? People who yearn for the past? You've just described the stereotypical UKIP voter there. I suspect that a much larger proportion of UKIP voters are "yearn for the past" types than other parties. As to whether such voters are the majority of UKIP's support base, you'd have to ask a pollster or two. I've yet to meet anyone in UKIP who lives their lives on a 'Yearn for the past' ticket It's just a cheap throwaway line by those not intelligent to come up with any meaningful analysis or catchy punch lines. In fact it's fairly obvious that UKIP supporters in general are looking to the future (outside the EU) rather than the past. The second old faithful is the age of party members, sure their is loads of oldsters but when I look at other parties meetings etc I see very similar demographics as it is generally the older generation who take the time to get involved in order to demonstrate their anger at the political system. It also amuses me when I read political commentators reffering to older party members dying out, quite clearly not taking into account that the rest of the population is of course growing older by the day and then replace the departed as 'the older section of society' Anyway if Ed Milliband had observed the 500 strong audience at Farage's public meeting Swansea's Liberty stadium the other night he's have had the fright of his life at the number of young former labour supporters crowding out the room with such enthusiasm.
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