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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 5, 2014 11:38:01 GMT
It's an established fact that UKIP voters tend to be older and most studies suggest their voters are disproportionately likely to take a negative attitude towards developments of recent decades. That's not of course always the same as having 'out of date' ideas, which as you've shown is predominantly a value judgement. Well, of it is. I suppose it is difficult for people who have never lived without the EU to imagine not having it there. For me....I do it with no difficulty at all but then I was 15 when we joined But most UKIP voters are not motivated primarily by the EU. They're unhappy about a much broader range of societal changes.
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Post by carlton43 on May 5, 2014 12:50:05 GMT
A 10/10 filter is silly as no one is 100% certain that they will vote unless they have already sent in a postal vote . I am 9/10 certain but I may fall under a bus or be ill etc so 10/10 would be false . Or, given the age demographic of a large proportion of UKIP's regular vote base, die of natural causes. Surely we are concerned with intentionality here chaps...not certainty itself? These references to the real possibility of the likes of me not surviving until polling day...are less than reassuring on my holiday Monday.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 5, 2014 12:52:09 GMT
You might think that, but every study I've seen of UKIP's voters suggests they're much more motivated by immigration and by a general disenchantment with politics than by the EU specifically.
Where I actually live is one of UKIP's weakest areas, but where I'm from is strong for UKIP. The MP is lazy, but I don't think people are particularly crying out for more active representation - and if they are, then voting UKIP was a bloody stupid idea, because their county councillor is barely ever seen in the division. To the extent it played a role, it's probably more about a lack of engagement allowing negative ideas from elsewhere to go unchallenged.
East Anglia as a whole is relatively affluent, but there are pockets of deprivation and as the cost of living is higher it's not a particularly nice area to be poor in. There's some correlation between levels of UKIP support and proximity to deprivation, but I think the relationship between those two factors is actually decidedly complex. To oversimplify massively, UKIP are strongest in East Anglia in working-class, culturally Conservative (and often somewhat insular) areas without strong Labour parties and where there is limited educational aspiration or middle class employment (these two factors obviously being closely intertwined). The sorts of towns that people from more socially well-regarded areas look down on.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 5, 2014 12:54:18 GMT
I'd also add that referring to Huntingdonshire as East Anglia would probably not go down terribly well with the locals of Great Staughton...
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2014 13:14:51 GMT
Or, given the age demographic of a large proportion of UKIP's regular vote base, die of natural causes. An unpleasant and unworthy remark. Not really, it was a comment to nothing. I certainly see no harm in it.
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Post by carlton43 on May 5, 2014 13:28:52 GMT
As a recruit to UKIP myself I can echo much of your analysis EAL. I think we do tend to be 60+, White, Male, Pessimistic, more concerned with Immigration and our perception of the effects on society than with the EU, Disenchanted with most of Modern Britain (probably never enchanted in first instance!), and living in some sort of backwater out of the mainstream. We distrust all politicians and most authority as well. We used to trust scientists, the police, the Courts and the BBC News, but don't trust any of those any more either.
So, remote rural areas, the coasts and small towns are our habitat. Especially small one-time conservative, respectable towns that have decayed into decrepitude (Hastings, Ramsgate, Boston, Sheringham, Skegness, and many similar). Many have had lives of 'quiet desperation' and lack of personal fulfillment or success; outside actual poverty but financially strained; asset comfortable but income weak. Ideals and hopes evaporated. The new liberal society is not well received. The perception of the Welfare State is misunderstood, despised and heartily disliked.
As a demographic, we are against far more than we are for. We are good at identifying everything we want to stop but have far fewer ideas or policies about what we want to do. Being natural conservatives, we don't actually want to do much and prefer inactive governments that repeal far more than they enact. We are a party of those in stasis from areas in stasis and we perceive all change to probably be bad for us and possibly bad for the nation.
As to East Anglia. Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Cambs and Hunts with a bit of Lincs and probably Rutland. Not Leics, Notts, N. Lincs, Beds or Herts. Now tell me where I went wrong.
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Post by J.G.Harston on May 5, 2014 14:25:52 GMT
I'd also add that referring to Huntingdonshire as East Anglia would probably not go down terribly well with the locals of Great Staughton... Well, maybe not, but we used to get Anglia Television, what other qualification do you need? Of course it was in Huntingdonshire then Living in Sheffield I used to get Tyne-Tees Television.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 5, 2014 14:44:03 GMT
I'd say East Anglia proper is Suffolk, Norfolk and the pre-1974 bits of Cambridgeshire, possibly with north-east Essex thrown in (though that's as much about our relationship with the rest of Essex as it is about our relationship with Suffolk.) Broadly speaking that conforms to the pre-Viking kingdom, which I'm aware appeals to some of you but I don't think has any particular significance. I would personally define it as those parts of the Eastern region which could not under any reasonable circumstances be defined either as part of the Midlands or as being within the orbit of London.
For EU purposes, it's defined as a subregion of the East, made up of Norfolk, Suffolk and all of Cambridgeshire (including Peterborough). Peterborough is a poor fit, but I don't personally have any strong objection to the inclusion of Huntingdonshire. Others would, however, and what are these things about really if it's not pointless parochial disputes?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 5, 2014 20:23:09 GMT
I used to be able to receive Anglia TV in Bushey Heath which is right on the border with Greater London. It wasn't technically a part of the Anglia TV region but because it was on high ground I was able to receive it as well as Thames/Carlton. I think parts of Hertfordshire not far north of Watford and most of Bedfordshire are in the Anglia TV region but you could not describe thoise areas as East Anglia in any sense. Royston and the surrounding area has a bit of the East Anglia about it I suppose
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Post by carlton43 on May 5, 2014 23:38:26 GMT
I used to be able to receive Anglia TV in Bushey Heath which is right on the border with Greater London. It wasn't technically a part of the Anglia TV region but because it was on high ground I was able to receive it as well as Thames/Carlton. I think parts of Hertfordshire not far north of Watford and most of Bedfordshire are in the Anglia TV region but you could not describe thoise areas as East Anglia in any sense. Royston and the surrounding area has a bit of the East Anglia about it I suppose Er.....well, yeah, I know. I didn't actually think that TV reception of the 1960s ought to be a basis on which we should define EU or UK geographical regions. I was being flippant. Fuck me, its like living on the set of the set of the Big Bang Theory. Is that a complex mathematical allusion AC?
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2014 11:45:36 GMT
Survation poll:
UKIP 31% LAB 28% CON 24% LDEM 7% GRN 4% SNP 3.5% BNP 2%
Wipeout territory for Lib Dems and Greens, UKIP +4, Lab -6 on last months poll.
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Post by Richard Allen on May 7, 2014 11:54:17 GMT
Survation poll: UKIP 31% LAB 28% CON 24% LDEM 7% GRN 4% SNP 3.5% BNP 2% Wipeout territory for Lib Dems and Greens, UKIP +4, Lab -6 on last months poll. I don't think that is wipe out territory for the Lib Dems. Even if they poll 7% nationwide (and I find that unlikely) they would still almost certainly get the 9% they need in the SE to be assured of a seat.
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2014 12:07:07 GMT
Survation poll: UKIP 31% LAB 28% CON 24% LDEM 7% GRN 4% SNP 3.5% BNP 2% Wipeout territory for Lib Dems and Greens, UKIP +4, Lab -6 on last months poll. I don't think that is wipe out territory for the Lib Dems. Even if they poll 7% nationwide (and I find that unlikely) they would still almost certainly get the 9% they need in the SE to be assured of a seat. On a universal swing it would put them on 7.2%, just above the minimum needed in 2009.
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Post by Richard Allen on May 7, 2014 12:14:14 GMT
I don't think that is wipe out territory for the Lib Dems. Even if they poll 7% nationwide (and I find that unlikely) they would still almost certainly get the 9% they need in the SE to be assured of a seat. On a universal swing it would put them on 7.2%, just above the minimum needed in 2009. A universal swing is extremely unlikely.
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Post by greenchristian on May 7, 2014 19:51:06 GMT
So why the discrepancy in the Green vote between Yougov and other pollsters? Yougov consistently puts us on about the vote share we had last time, whilst the other pollsters show a complete collapse in our vote.
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Post by Sibboleth on May 7, 2014 23:11:07 GMT
The reality is that Euro Elections polling is pretty much a crapshot so... actually that's your explanation right there.
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Post by greenchristian on May 8, 2014 15:47:32 GMT
The reality is that Euro Elections polling is pretty much a crapshot so... actually that's your explanation right there. I was hoping somebody would point out significant methodological differences. Given that the Yougov numbers are the ones not in line with our Westminster polling, I'm inclined to believe that they are closer to the truth. But if there's a reason to doubt that, I'd rather know now than be surprised by a collapse after the election.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 10, 2014 21:44:53 GMT
Latest Survation Euro poll:
UKIP 32% (+1) LAB 28% (no change) CON 21% (-4) LD 9% (+3)
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Post by carlton43 on May 12, 2014 10:46:31 GMT
YouGov for Sky News Ukip 31 Lab 25 Con 23 LD 9 Others 14 Where do Sky magic up the extra 2% of virtual voters?
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2014 11:14:17 GMT
Latest Opinium Ukip 28 Lab 25 Con 23 LD 8 Sorry, don't have any Green figures T,was 5%
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