Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2014 12:41:03 GMT
Pure supposition aka bollocks. Well, the 5% might be bollocks but I think they will have an effect....2% perhaps That's possible, but I don't understand the 'the pollsters need to do something about this!' line by PB. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2014 12:46:13 GMT
London Survation EU poll
European Parliament (London Region) Voting Intention
(Changes, indicated in parentheses, are from 2009 results)
LAB 39% (+ 17%)
CON 21% (- 7%)
LD 13% (- 1%)
UKIP 20% (+ 9%)
GREEN 7% (- 4%)
---
Seat Projection:
LAB 3 (+ 1)
CON 2 (- 1)
LD 1 (NC)
UKIP 2 (+ 1)
GREEN 0 (-1)
===
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Post by Andrew_S on May 1, 2014 12:53:19 GMT
London Survation EU poll European Parliament (London Region) Voting Intention (Changes, indicated in parentheses, are from 2009 results) LAB 39% (+ 17%) CON 21% (- 7%) LD 13% (- 1%) UKIP 20% (+ 9%) GREEN 7% (- 4%) --- Seat Projection: LAB 3 (+ 1) CON 2 (- 1) LD 1 (NC) UKIP 2 (+ 1) GREEN 0 (-1) === 20% for UKIP in London is quite an impressive rating. |
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on May 1, 2014 13:07:46 GMT
That's, shall we say, a surprising retention of 2009 vote share by the LDs there.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 1, 2014 14:15:00 GMT
Well, the 5% might be bollocks but I think they will have an effect....2% perhaps I am amazed UKIP did not immediately go to The High Court and petition for removal of that form of words. Is it just a vanity project by the twerp Nattrass or does anyone suspect he was put up to it and funded as a spoiling exercise? I could easily be persuaded. Interesting to have an examination of bank accounts!! I have heard a rumour that there may have been some funding from another fringe party |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 1, 2014 15:06:53 GMT
I am amazed UKIP did not immediately go to The High Court and petition for removal of that form of words. Is it just a vanity project by the twerp Nattrass or does anyone suspect he was put up to it and funded as a spoiling exercise? I could easily be persuaded. Interesting to have an examination of bank accounts!! I have heard a rumour that there may have been some funding from another fringe party A rumour that has no basis in logic and almost certainly none in fact. Nattrass is spending a lot of money but he is almost certainly doing it because he thinks he can get re-elected. |
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Richard Allen
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Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
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Post by Richard Allen on May 1, 2014 16:07:35 GMT
Nattrass is spending a lot of money but he is almost certainly doing it because he thinks he can get re-elected. Do you think that he can? I assumed that he was just standing as a spoiler out of spite. I don't think he has chance but I think that he thinks he has a chance. |
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Post by greenchristian on May 1, 2014 16:07:52 GMT
Maybe UKIP could do some leaflets informing supporters not to be confused by Nattrass's party. I think that could just muddy the waters even further, and be counterproductive. I wonder how many 'genuine' votes Nattrass will get in the West Midlands as an incumbent, i.e. people who are consciously voting for him and his party, rather than getting confused and voting in error? The only West Midlands MEP with a measurable amount of name recognition is Nikki Sinclaire. Nattrass's vote in the West Midlands will come from people mistaking his party for UKIP. He may be delusional enough to think otherwise, but that doesn't affect the reality. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2014 16:39:23 GMT
he won;t get anywhere near 5% country wide, be lucky to get that in the West Mids ...
I will say at this point Sinclaire will still be a MEP in June
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Post by Devonian on May 1, 2014 17:02:15 GMT
Chris Beverley and Steve Uncles of the English Democrats talking about An Independence Party. Of course they are not fans of UKIP and are quite pleased at he prospect of a spoiler party taking votes from UKIP. Of course Nattrass at one point was considering defecting to the English Democrats. Uncles here claims that he had mentioned to Nattrass that standing candidates in all nine English regions entitled a party to a PEB (presumably mentioned as a potential benefit of joining the EDs). Uncles thinks that this conversation may have been what gave Nattrass the idea of his own party standing candidates in all nine regions.
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Post by carlton43 on May 1, 2014 18:09:00 GMT
UKIP's case would have been laughed out of court. What they needed to do was challenge the descriptions when, or shortly after, they were registered. Once the a nomination(s) has been accepted as valid there is nothing that can be done unless you can demonstrate that the RO(s) acted incorrectly which they clearly did not. Well, your probably right. If they haven't followed the protocol then they are likely to see any action struck out. But then I don't know what the protocol is to be honest. Like you say, they should have put their hand up when they first knew about it. This time a bad use of 'to be honest'! What is it about the phrase that so many find so attractive? In all honesty I am at a loss. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2014 19:41:22 GMT
nope I disagree, maybe the odd voter may make a mistake but if someone is determined to vote UKIP they will know where to put the X
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
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Post by Pimpernal on May 1, 2014 20:56:41 GMT
nope I disagree, maybe the odd voter may make a mistake but if someone is determined to vote UKIP they will know where to put the X Well judging by the myriad of ways UKIP voters managed to put their mark in the wrong place in the County Elections when there wasn't a spoiler party at the top of the ballot, and when the ballot paper was small enough to look at it one glance, and there wasn't the risk of a folded up bit at the bottom hiding UKIP as there was in 2009, I really don't share your confidence. |
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Post by greenchristian on May 1, 2014 21:11:27 GMT
nope I disagree, maybe the odd voter may make a mistake but if someone is determined to vote UKIP they will know where to put the X Well judging by the myriad of ways UKIP voters managed to put their mark in the wrong place in the County Elections when there wasn't a spoiler party at the top of the ballot, and when the ballot paper was small enough to look at it one glance, and there wasn't the risk of a folded up bit at the bottom hiding UKIP as there was in 2009, I really don't share your confidence. How did you know that they were UKIP voters? As for the ability of the electorate to vote correctly, let's not forget that half of them are of below average intelligence. |
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Post by carlton43 on May 1, 2014 22:24:53 GMT
Well judging by the myriad of ways UKIP voters managed to put their mark in the wrong place in the County Elections when there wasn't a spoiler party at the top of the ballot, and when the ballot paper was small enough to look at it one glance, and there wasn't the risk of a folded up bit at the bottom hiding UKIP as there was in 2009, I really don't share your confidence. How did you know that they were UKIP voters? As for the ability of the electorate to vote correctly, let's not forget that half of them are of below average intelligence. No! It's much more than that!! |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
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Post by Crimson King on May 1, 2014 23:25:36 GMT
No! It's much more than that!! Well, by definition it can't be. I suppose it is what you might consider to be average, given the people you converse with.....mainly people on this site, I should think, where the average IQ is much higher than the national average. I suspect that was intended as a quip or witticism AC |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 1, 2014 23:38:43 GMT
Its quite possible that more than half of people are below the average. If 9 people each had an IQ of 98 and the 10th person had an IQ of 120 then the average IQ in that group would be 100 and 90% would be below average
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
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Post by Crimson King on May 1, 2014 23:42:51 GMT
Its quite possible that more than half of people are below the average. If 9 people each had an IQ of 98 and the 10th person had an IQ of 120 then the average IQ in that group would be 100 and 90% would be below average Indeed but I think we are talking a population sized sample, and I believe IQ is by definition normally distributed (or is so in practice) so the mean, median and mode are pretty much the same |
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Post by carlton43 on May 1, 2014 23:43:46 GMT
No! It's much more than that!! Well, by definition it can't be. I suppose it is what you might consider to be average, given the people you converse with.....mainly people on this site, I should think, where the average IQ is much higher than the national average. No AC, see Pete's post above. The stats are relative to the sums of the individual IQs and I can assure you, on that basis, a majority are 'below average'. Crimson is also correct of course. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2014 6:56:09 GMT
No AC, see Pete's post above. The stats are relative to the sums of the individual IQs and I can assure you, on that basis, a majority are 'below average'. Crimson is also correct of course. Damn statistics! Of course I have to ask what kind of result would you get from asking three people about their voting intention? But yes, he's right. Just as in having one foot encased in a block of ice and my other in a bucket of boiling water my feet, would, statistically, be at relatively tolerable average temperature of 50c As Ronald Reagan once said: |
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