Byelections: February 6

[Deleted]

6th February - 4
Conwy CB, Betws yn Rhos - No Description resigned
Sheffield M, Arbourthorne - Labour died
Tendring DC, Peter Bruff - Conservative died
Tendring DC, St Johns - Conservative resigned

Conwy
Betws yn Rhos
No Description resigned

2004 - Independent Unopposed
2008 - Independent Unopposed
2012 - No Desc. 340, Plaid 219, Ind (1) 167, Ind (2) 40, Ind (3) 18


Candidates (source)

Caroline EVANS [Independent]
Bryn JONES [Welsh Conservatives / Ceidwadwyr Cymreig]
Ifor LLOYD [Annibynnol / Independent ]
Clwyd ROBERTS [Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales]


Sheffield
Arbourthorne
Labour died

Candidates (source)

2007 - Lab 2,099, LD 830, C 527, Green 304
2008 - Lab 1,606, LD 1,094, C 727, Green 445
2010 - Lab 3,247, LD 1,888, Con 826, BNP 682, Green 242
2011 - Lab 2,938, Green 965, LD 566, Con 517
2012 - Lab 2,303, UKIP 544, Con 299, LD 275


Jennyfer BARNARD – [Green]
Mike DRABBLE – [Labour]
Alan MUNRO – [Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts]
Susan ROSS – [Liberal Democrat]
Bob SHERIDAN – [UKIP]
Peter SMITH – [Conservative]
David WILDGOOSE – [English Democrats]

Tendring
Peter Bruff
Conservative died

2003 - LD 485/481, Con 204/184
2007 - LD 400/322, Con 353/326, Ind 189, Lab 155/141
2011 - Con 446/427, LD 379/335, Lab 257/223


Candidates (source)

John CANDLER [Liberal Democrat]
Sara RICHARDSON [Conservative Party Candidate]
Jon SALISBURY [Labour Party Candidate]
Sue SHEARING [UK Independence Party (UKIP)]

Tendring
St Johns
Conservative resigned

2003 - LD 577/504, Con 326/313, Lab 231
2007 - Con 558/400, Lab 419/362, LD 337/263, Ind 123
2011 - Con 633/575, Lab 474/396, LD 284/228, Green 117

Candidates

Laurie GRAY [UK Independence Party (UKIP)]
Norman JACOBS [Labour Party Candidate]
Mick SKEELS [The Conservative Party Candidate]
Clive UPTON [No description]

[David Ashforth]

	Ward map	Census map
CONWY - Betws yn Rhos	link	link
SHEFFIELD - Arbourthorne	link	link
TENDRING - Peter Bruff	link	link
TENDRING - St Johns	link	link

[Pete Whitehead]

Jan 16, 2014 9:24:42 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

Sheffield
Arbourthorne
Labour died

Candidates (source)

2007 - Lab 2,099, LD 830, C 527, Green 304
2008 - Lab 1,606, LD 1,094, C 727, Green 445
2010 - Lab 3,247, LD 1,888, Con 826, BNP 682, Green 242
2011 - Lab 2,938, Green 965, LD 566, Con 517
2012 - Lab 2,303, UKIP 544, Con 299, LD 275


Jennyfer BARNARD – [Green]
Mike DRABBLE – [Labour]
Alan MUNRO – [Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts]
Susan ROSS – [Liberal Democrat]
Bob SHERIDAN – [UKIP]
Peter SMITH – [Conservative]
David WILDGOOSE – [English Democrats]

The Greens had a candidate in 2012 - the same candidate as in 2010 and 2011 and in this by-election. She got 276 votes.
Does anyone know why there was this great surge in support for the Greens in 2011 which then completely fell away the following year?  On the face of it, it appears that they may have benefited from the absence of a BNP candidate by attracting a generic protest vote (which then moved onto UKIP in 2010) but that wouldn't cover it all even if every one of those 2012 BNP voters switched to the Greens

[Philip Davies]

Jan 16, 2014 9:24:42 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

Tendring
St Johns
Conservative resigned

2003 - LD 577/504, Con 326/313, Lab 231
2007 - Con 558/400, Lab 419/362, LD 337/263, Ind 123
2011 - Con 633/575, Lab 474/396, LD 284/228, Green 117

The 2007 figures according to Andrew Teale's website are Con 558/464, LD 538/472, Lab 258. The figures above look like the St Marys result from 2007 apart from the 558.

[Deleted]

Now I see why somebody else does these...

[Merseymike]

Feb 5, 2014 14:27:11 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jan 16, 2014 9:24:42 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

Sheffield
Arbourthorne
Labour died

Candidates (source)

2007 - Lab 2,099, LD 830, C 527, Green 304
2008 - Lab 1,606, LD 1,094, C 727, Green 445
2010 - Lab 3,247, LD 1,888, Con 826, BNP 682, Green 242
2011 - Lab 2,938, Green 965, LD 566, Con 517
2012 - Lab 2,303, UKIP 544, Con 299, LD 275


Jennyfer BARNARD – [Green]
Mike DRABBLE – [Labour]
Alan MUNRO – [Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts]
Susan ROSS – [Liberal Democrat]
Bob SHERIDAN – [UKIP]
Peter SMITH – [Conservative]
David WILDGOOSE – [English Democrats]

The Greens had a candidate in 2012 - the same candidate as in 2010 and 2011 and in this by-election. She got 276 votes.
Does anyone know why there was this great surge in support for the Greens in 2011 which then completely fell away the following year?  On the face of it, it appears that they may have benefited from the absence of a BNP candidate by attracting a generic protest vote (which then moved onto UKIP in 2010) but that wouldn't cover it all even if every one of those 2012 BNP voters switched to the Greens

I'd say its the result of the collapse of the LibDem vote in much of the urban North. It hasn't been quite as strong in Sheffield as in some other cities but they have been forced back into a few strongholds
It looks as if the LibDem vote fell to both Labour and the Greens, though of course the turnout was lower as it wasn't a general election year in 2011. I've seen this happen before - actually to the LibDems, who once had three councillors in my ward and got 3% last time

[Pete Whitehead]

Yes that certainly helps explain the rise in 2011 but not the fall in 2012

[jack]

Will Tendring Peter Bruff be a repeat of Lichfield Chadsmead last week ? History on both wards look similar.

[AdminSTB]

Andrew Teale's previews are up:
blog.englishelections.org.uk/2014/02/by-election-previews-6-february-2014.html
blog.welshelections.org.uk/2014/02/by-election-preview-6-february-2014.html

[East Anglian Lefty]

Feb 6, 2014 11:21:48 GMT jack said:

Will Tendring Peter Bruff be a repeat of Lichfield Chadsmead last week ? History on both wards look similar.

I don't know Chadsmead, but I did some canvassing in Peter Bruff last week and I doubt it. As I understand it, Chadsmead is essentially an edge of town council estate, which was historically Labour but where we've fallen back heavily in recent years. Peter Bruff is rather different. The older housing around Coppins Road is quite demographically similar to the housing just over the border in Alton Park, which is probably the strongest bit of the town for Labour. Unfortunately, it's also quite low turnout and this is exacerbated by the fact that Labour have traditionally concentrated on more winnable wards. The housing around Kingsman Drive (1970s, I think, and probably largely social housing originally) also has Labour potential, but it's not a stronghold and we aren't the only people who have reason to target it. The rest of the ward is relatively new, either 1980s or 2000s and is not particularly fertile territory for us.

Along with much of the rest of north Clacton, Peter Bruff has been a Lib Dem hotspot going back decades. They haven't given up on it and I saw a team out canvassing on the same day I was there. But they're definitely struggling, particularly since they depended heavily upon well-liked and active incumbents and their most recent councillor is the UKIP candidate. Clacton is both old and insular (though Peter Bruff is younger than the town average). There is a hostility to immigration out of all proportion to the number of immigrants actually present in Clacton. This is almost certainly down to the lack of job opportunities in the town, but the resentment and alienation that produces is just as fertile for UKIP.

Meanwhile the local Tories seem to be in a measure of disarray. There was no sign of their campaign (though we did see the former council leader doing some work on a house in the ward) and no sign of life from Douglas Carswell's office. It'd be daft to rule them out in Clacton, but they could very well be in for a kicking.

The only thing I feel safe predicting is a fairly pitiful turnout. Gun to my head, I'd say UKIP are favoured, but they could just as well come third. No Idea about St. John's, as the canvass session there was cancelled.

[J.G.Harston]

Feb 6, 2014 12:58:51 GMT AdminSTB said:

Andrew Teale's previews are up:
blog.englishelections.org.uk/2014/02/by-election-previews-6-february-2014.html
blog.welshelections.org.uk/2014/02/by-election-preview-6-february-2014.html

Before the boundary changes in 2004, the LibDems had two of the three councillors in the precursor ward to Arbourthorne, Park ward. They were very much elected on the surge to the LibDems in the run-up to the LibDems taking control in 1999, the first in a by-election in 1999 and the second in the May 1999 election. The by-election seat was held when it was defended in 2000, but Park returned to form when Labour took the council back in 2002, and the late councillor was one of the newcomers who took the local party infrastructure by the scruff of the neck and gave it a good kicking and got it working again. While Arbourthorne is a Labour area, it's not a heartland area, and the people there will come out for people who actually go out and work the area. In the absence of anybody working the area at all, they slip back to the default Labour mode, and with the LibDems retreating back towards the remaining areas where they have councillors, there's only been Labour, Green and UKIP activity there.

On a personal note, I hope John's replacement successor works for his residents as much as John did, rather than just treating them as a lump of voting support.

[Ben Walker]

LD 108 15.2% -19.9%
UKIP 153 21.5% 21.5%
LAB 180 25.3% 1.5%
CON 271 38.1% -3.2%

[timmullen1]

Feb 6, 2014 23:04:21 GMT Ben Walker said:

LD 108 15.2% -19.9%
UKIP 153 21.5% 21.5%
LAB 180 25.3% 1.5%
CON 271 38.1% -3.2%

I assume this is one of the Tendring Wards, but which one?

[middleenglander]

Feb 6, 2014 23:09:26 GMT timmullen1 said:

Feb 6, 2014 23:04:21 GMT Ben Walker said:

LD 108 15.2% -19.9%
UKIP 153 21.5% 21.5%
LAB 180 25.3% 1.5%
CON 271 38.1% -3.2%

I assume this is one of the Tendring Wards, but which one?

Looks like Peter Bruff

[tim13]

Tim Mullen - I did wonder that - for a few seconds. Then I twigged - read the list of candidates. It's Peter Bruff. Who is / was Peter Bruff, by the way??

[Ben Walker]

Here's that one round Sheffield way:

LAB 1,398 52.2% -15.1%
GRN 143 5.3% 5.3%
TUSC 204 7.6% 7.6%
LD 161 6.0% -2.0%
UKIP 482 18.0% 2.1%
CON 213 8.0% -0.8%
ED 75 2.8% 2.8%

[David Ashforth]

SHEFFIELD Arbourthorne


Lab 1398
UKIP 482
Con 213
TUSC 204
Lib Dem 161
Green 143
Eng Dem 75

[AdminSTB]

Feb 6, 2014 23:12:13 GMT tim13 said:

Tim Mullen - I did wonder that - for a few seconds. Then I twigged - read the list of candidates. It's Peter Bruff. Who is / was Peter Bruff, by the way??

All explained in Andrew Teale's preview.
blog.englishelections.org.uk/2014/02/by-election-previews-6-february-2014.html

[timmullen1]

Feb 6, 2014 23:12:13 GMT tim13 said:

Tim Mullen - I did wonder that - for a few seconds. Then I twigged - read the list of candidates. It's Peter Bruff. Who is / was Peter Bruff, by the way??

According to Andrew Teale's preview Peter Bruff was the Victorian entrepreneur who turned Clacton from a sleepy village to the seaside town it now is.

[Pete Whitehead]

Feb 6, 2014 23:14:28 GMT Ben Walker said:

Here's that one round Sheffield way:

LAB 1,398 52.2% -15.1%
GRN 143 5.3% 5.3%
TUSC 204 7.6% 7.6%
LD 161 6.0% -2.0%
UKIP 482 18.0% 2.1%
CON 213 8.0% -0.8%
ED 75 2.8% 2.8%

Quite a decent TUSC result for once