Byelections: February 6

[carlton43]

Feb 7, 2014 12:29:33 GMT joe said:

Feb 7, 2014 10:31:08 GMT carlton43 said:

Do you see this as the start of the 'adjustment' to GE 15 reality as people think their way to what they will do after the EU Elections? If so it suggests Labour may be weaker in the South than might be expected and the LD collapse their major form of sustenance? I feel we should be making a strong push for the older age group of 'Old Labour' many of whose core ethics we still share. They are not Green or multi-cultural or social modernists. If we can capture a major section of that demographic it will aid us and the Conservatives, and I would be very happy with that outturn. I want to see us do well and although a short-term Labour government under Ed would be politically useful to our further development, I suppose I ought to be more concerned with ensuring that win is narrow or impossible. I am torn between my loathing of the economic damage Labour always rends and my loathing of Cameroon social modernizing. 

There will probably be even more social modernizing with labour. I suggest you are cutting off your nose to spite your face if you vote labour. I also have deep lying issues with the Cameroons (the economic policy) but surely they are better than labour?

That is a far to a simplistic response Joe. I did not suggest voting Labour but commented upon some of the effects of a partial LD collapse and a UKIP assault on the Old Labour aged vote. I thought this might well assist the Cons, but that in my analysis of realpolitik I was in a bind over 'permitting' Labour to win by the presence of a UKIP that cannot win many seats....against.....'permitting' the Cameroons to win which might do even more long-term damage to the right. That is a valid problem to flag up. That realpolitik has the side issue of presumed benefit to UKIP if Labour win and instantly become the national whipping boy for being the cause of 'cuts' and their version of 'modernization'. I think we have benefitted from this effect against the Cons and would gain more if against Lab next time. So our national sectional advantage might be in seeing a narrow Labour win which I hope will be a bit of a nonsense and do harm to the left and to the Cons whilst benefitting us and putting us closer to reaching out for power. The great game Joe, the great game. Tactical withdrawals can lead to winning the war. And this is a war against pernicious socialism.

[Deleted]

Feb 7, 2014 13:12:26 GMT carlton43 said:

Feb 7, 2014 12:29:33 GMT joe said:

There will probably be even more social modernizing with labour. I suggest you are cutting off your nose to spite your face if you vote labour. I also have deep lying issues with the Cameroons (the economic policy) but surely they are better than labour?

That is a far to a simplistic response Joe. I did not suggest voting Labour but commented upon some of the effects of a partial LD collapse and a UKIP assault on the Old Labour aged vote. I thought this might well assist the Cons, but that in my analysis of realpolitik I was in a bind over 'permitting' Labour to win by the presence of a UKIP that cannot win many seats....against.....'permitting' the Cameroons to win which might do even more long-term damage to the right. That is a valid problem to flag up. That realpolitik has the side issue of presumed benefit to UKIP if Labour win and instantly become the national whipping boy for being the cause of 'cuts' and their version of 'modernization'. I think we have benefitted from this effect against the Cons and would gain more if against Lab next time. So our national sectional advantage might be in seeing a narrow Labour win which I hope will be a bit of a nonsense and do harm to the left and to the Cons whilst benefitting us and putting us closer to reaching out for power. The great game Joe, the great game. Tactical withdrawals can lead to winning the war. And this is a war against pernicious socialism.

Are UKIP actually interested in winning the war?

[middleenglander]

Conwy, Betws yn Rhos - Independent gain from No Description

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2012
Independent Lloyd	347	46.0%	from nowhere
Plaid Cymru	197	26.1%	-1.8%
Independent Evans	127	16.8%	from nowhere
Conservative *	83	11.0%	-10.3%
No Description			-43.4%
Independent			-5.1%
Independent			-2.3%
Total votes	754		-30

* Conservative candidate stood as an Independent in 2012

2008 and 2004 saw an Independent returned unopposed

Sheffield, Arbourthorne - Labour hold

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2012	since 2011	since 2010	since 2008
Labour	1,398	52.2%	-10.1%	-6.7%	+5.0%	+10.8%
UKIP	482	18.0%	+3.3%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Conservative	213	8.0%	-0.1%	-2.4%	-4.0%	-10.8%
TUSAC	204	7.6%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Lib Dem	161	6.0%	-1.4%	-5.3%	-21.4%	-22.2%
Green	143	5.3%	-2.1%	-14.0%	+1.8%	-6.1%
English Democrat	75	2.8%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
BNP					-9.9%
Total votes	2,676		-1,021	-2,310	-4,209	-1,196

Swing Labour to UKIP 6.7% since 2012 otherwise not particularly meaningful

Tendring, Peter Bruff - Conservative hold

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"	since 2007 "top"	since 2007 "average"
Conservative	271	38.1%	-3.2%	-4.2%	+5.9%	+5.4%
Labour	180	25.3%	+1.5%	+2.1%	+11.2%	+11.0%
UKIP	153	21.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Lib Dem	108	15.2%	-19.9%	-19.3%	-21.3%	-19.6%
Independent					-17.2%	-18.2%
Total votes	712		-370	-322	-385	-326

Swing Conservative to Labour 2.3% / 3.1% since 2011 and ~ 2¾% since 2007

Tendring, St Johns - Conservative hold

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"	since 2007 "top"	since 2007 "average
Conservative	423	44.4%	+2.5%	+1.7%	+3.2%	+4.3%
Labour	272	28.6%	-2.9%	-2.2%	+9.5%	+8.3%
UKIP	208	21.8%	from nowhere	from nowhere	Row 4 column 6	Row 4 column 7
No Description	49	5.1%	from nowhere	from nowhere	Row 5 column 6	Row 5 column 7
Lib Dem			-18.8%	-18.1%	-39.7%	-39.6%
Green			-7.8%	-8.3%
Total votes	952		-556	-460	-402	-322

Swing Labour to Conservative 2.7% / 2.0% since 2011 but Conservative to Labour 3.1% / 2.0% since 2007

[carlton43]

Feb 7, 2014 13:55:16 GMT joe said:

Feb 7, 2014 13:12:26 GMT carlton43 said:

That is a far to a simplistic response Joe. I did not suggest voting Labour but commented upon some of the effects of a partial LD collapse and a UKIP assault on the Old Labour aged vote. I thought this might well assist the Cons, but that in my analysis of realpolitik I was in a bind over 'permitting' Labour to win by the presence of a UKIP that cannot win many seats....against.....'permitting' the Cameroons to win which might do even more long-term damage to the right. That is a valid problem to flag up. That realpolitik has the side issue of presumed benefit to UKIP if Labour win and instantly become the national whipping boy for being the cause of 'cuts' and their version of 'modernization'. I think we have benefitted from this effect against the Cons and would gain more if against Lab next time. So our national sectional advantage might be in seeing a narrow Labour win which I hope will be a bit of a nonsense and do harm to the left and to the Cons whilst benefitting us and putting us closer to reaching out for power. The great game Joe, the great game. Tactical withdrawals can lead to winning the war. And this is a war against pernicious socialism.

Are UKIP actually interested in winning the war?

As I see it we are the only party engaged in it at all. The other big-3 are all socialist to an extent and in truth I expect UKIP to go the same way for the same centrist practical politics reasons. In fact I think there is a bigger market for the real right of centre than many politicians suspect. The 'Centre Ground' is over-provided for and over-fought-over. We are in the war against mass immigration and against the EU, largely alone.

[Deleted]

UKIP are already more socialist than the tories. As recently as 2010 that wasn't the case.

[J.G.Harston]

Feb 6, 2014 23:21:13 GMT Ben Walker said:

EDITED:

LAB 1,398 52.2% -10.1%
GRN 143 5.3% -2.1%
TUSC 204 7.6% 7.6%
LD 161 6.0% -1.4%
UKIP 482 18.0% 3.3%
CON 213 8.0% -0.1%
ED 75 2.8% 2.8%

My STV modelling show that UKIP have gained a councillor, and now have a group of two. Labour's majority trimmed to 30.

[carlton43]

Feb 7, 2014 16:47:29 GMT joe said:

UKIP are already more socialist than the tories. As recently as 2010 that wasn't the case.

They are less consistent, have less well developed policy positions, and through being populists, are far harder to evaluate or to tie down in that manner. In ethos and gut feeling they are not really socialist at all....as seen from my perspective and I think from the perspective of the new possible voter.