Byelections: February 6

[Pimpernal]

What must be a tad worrying for the Lib dems is their apparent difficulty in getting enough candidates to stand in some of these local elections...

[East Anglian Lefty]

The Tory result in Peter Bruff is good, but the one in St John's is even stronger. No sign of the circumstances of the by-election hurting them and in a ward that's historically been better for Labour. By recent standards, both Labour results are OK (my working assumption was that we'd come fourth in Peter Bruff) but not anything to write home about, whilst UKIP may be slightly disappointed.

[Deleted]

I think UKIP may be at least a bit disappointed to get 3rd in both wards.

[Pete Whitehead]

I should say the results are disappointing. I wasn't overwhelmingly confident of winning in either but expected at least to be close

[East Anglian Lefty]

I would not be surprised if the issue was that their organisation in Clacton is still a bit ropey. Their county councillors in the district are both rather quiet, which won't help in that regard.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

CONWY Betws yn Rhos

Official result: modgoveng.conwy.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=241&RPID=3078740

Ifor Glyn Lloyd (Independent/ Annibynnol) 347 (46%)
Clwyd Roberts (Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales) 197 (26%)
Caroline Mary Evans (Independent/ Annibynnol) 127 (17%)
Bryn Jones (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate/Ymgeisydd Plaid Geidwadol Cymru) 83 (11%)

[carlton43]

Feb 7, 2014 8:44:26 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I should say the results are disappointing. I wasn't overwhelmingly confident of winning in either but expected at least to be close

Do you see this as the start of the 'adjustment' to GE 15 reality as people think their way to what they will do after the EU Elections? If so it suggests Labour may be weaker in the South than might be expected and the LD collapse their major form of sustenance? I feel we should be making a strong push for the older age group of 'Old Labour' many of whose core ethics we still share. They are not Green or multi-cultural or social modernists. If we can capture a major section of that demographic it will aid us and the Conservatives, and I would be very happy with that outturn. I want to see us do well and although a short-term Labour government under Ed would be politically useful to our further development, I suppose I ought to be more concerned with ensuring that win is narrow or impossible. I am torn between my loathing of the economic damage Labour always rends and my loathing of Cameroon social modernizing. 

[Merseymike]

I am expecting a more regionally skewed election than ever before. I don't perceive major Labour gains in the south or east. Some but not many. So I'm not expecting huge Blair style majorities which really weren't very productive. Too msny Labour MP's representing seats they wouldn't normally win became focused on keeping Tory defectors and absentees sweet.

[The Bishop]

Feb 7, 2014 6:14:29 GMT dazza said:

Very disappointing figures for Labour.

A bit much describing the Peter Bruff result as such, tbh.

[Deleted]

Feb 7, 2014 11:22:18 GMT The Bishop said:

Feb 7, 2014 6:14:29 GMT dazza said:

Very disappointing figures for Labour.

A bit much describing the Peter Bruff result as such, tbh.

I thought Labour did about par.

Tory>Labour>UKIP>LD in order of results in Tendring vs expectations.

[Deleted]

Feb 7, 2014 11:33:01 GMT @trident said:

Feb 7, 2014 10:39:09 GMT Merseymike said:

I am expecting a more regionally skewed election than ever before. I don't perceive major Labour gains in the south or east. Some but not many. So I'm not expecting huge Blair style majorities which really weren't very productive. Too msny Labour MP's representing seats they wouldn't normally win became focused on keeping Tory defectors and absentees sweet.

I think your prediction will be proved right. In large parts of Southern England, we are making little real progress (not that it necessarily matters electorally under FPTP), while in my part of the world we're doing even better than in 1995.

However, I also think you should be careful what you wish for, because that level of polarisation poses a problem of democratic legitimacy for whoever wins. It also poisons the political culture and pushes each side (but especially the Right) to the extremes - just look at the Red State / Blue State divide in America.

I genuinely believe that governments should seek to govern in the broad national interest - not just looking after their own people like the Tories are doing now. I would not want a Labour government to behave in the same divisive, sectarian and dogmatic way that this lot behave.

You must be joking. This Conservative government has been very gentle to just about everyone. The "cuts" have been nowhere near optimal and we have continued to throw good money at bad. Wait till we get a real right wing government - we won't see another left-winger like Cameron in charge of the tory party for a considerable stretch of time. 

We do see to have fewer and fewer marginals -  they seem to be deciding which side of the fence to sit on (e.g. Dartford for us, Gedling for you)

Maybe if we can't agree how the country we should genuinely think about dividing the country in two. You can have Birmingham!

[Deleted]

Wait till we get a real right wing government - we won't see another left-winger like Cameron in charge of the tory party for a considerable stretch of time.

you do realise Joe that the only reason you got a shot at power was Cameron was seen as a centralist and not a right winger ?

Are you falling for the failed line that appeal to UKIP and somehow get all their voters ?

[Deleted]

Feb 7, 2014 11:48:21 GMT @ianrobo said:

Wait till we get a real right wing government - we won't see another left-winger like Cameron in charge of the tory party for a considerable stretch of time.

you do realise Joe that the only reason you got a shot at power was Cameron was seen as a centralist and not a right winger ?

Are you falling for the failed line that appeal to UKIP and somehow get all their voters ?

Not really. If we get many then I won't complain. I see UKIP heading in the angry white man against cuts and foreigners direction and with less overlap with us. Maybe some old-school kippers like Pete would return if we also went to the right - but not many.

I think you are veering off way to the left again now Blair is becoming a historical figure - and as such we can stand under neo-Thatcherite policies and beat you. We lost in 1997 and 2001 because Blair was a truly exceptional figure.

[Deleted]

so you go for a right winger you really believe you can win an outright election ? and if so how ?

IMHO go for that and you will lose far more seats in the midlands and north than you can gain elsewhere.

[Deleted]

Feb 7, 2014 11:51:37 GMT @ianrobo said:

so you go for a right winger you really believe you can win an outright election ? and if so how ?

IMHO go for that and you will lose far more seats in the midlands and north than you can gain elsewhere.

Yes. I think it is more likely than not that Miliband will win next time (probably just short of a majority though) and that he will do a shit job and we will beat you in 2020.

There is no precedent for right-wingers doing badly except agaisnt Blair. 

Look at the states - its arguable that right wingers do better there. Romney McCain Dole lost, the Bushes and Reagan winning.

[Deleted]

Infact Pete actually said that he would consider his position if my favoured candidate Raab, was elected to the leadership.

[The Bishop]

Your reading of US elections is skewed to say the least, joe. The central reason Romney lost last time was the shift to the lunatic right by the GOP as a whole.

[Deleted]

I guess the 21st century American definition of moderate is rather different to our British definition.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Feb 7, 2014 10:31:08 GMT carlton43 said:

Feb 7, 2014 8:44:26 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I should say the results are disappointing. I wasn't overwhelmingly confident of winning in either but expected at least to be close

Do you see this as the start of the 'adjustment' to GE 15 reality as people think their way to what they will do after the EU Elections? If so it suggests Labour may be weaker in the South than might be expected and the LD collapse their major form of sustenance? I feel we should be making a strong push for the older age group of 'Old Labour' many of whose core ethics we still share. They are not Green or multi-cultural or social modernists. If we can capture a major section of that demographic it will aid us and the Conservatives, and I would be very happy with that outturn. I want to see us do well and although a short-term Labour government under Ed would be politically useful to our further development, I suppose I ought to be more concerned with ensuring that win is narrow or impossible. I am torn between my loathing of the economic damage Labour always rends and my loathing of Cameroon social modernizing. 

I don't think the Labour result is weaker than you'd expect for those wards, or that the UKIP vote there is 'old Labour'. We do much worse in places like Clacton than their appearance suggests we ought to. This is because the voters lazily assumed to be old Labour probably only supported us for a few years in the 1990s at most.

[Deleted]

Feb 7, 2014 10:31:08 GMT carlton43 said:

Feb 7, 2014 8:44:26 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I should say the results are disappointing. I wasn't overwhelmingly confident of winning in either but expected at least to be close

Do you see this as the start of the 'adjustment' to GE 15 reality as people think their way to what they will do after the EU Elections? If so it suggests Labour may be weaker in the South than might be expected and the LD collapse their major form of sustenance? I feel we should be making a strong push for the older age group of 'Old Labour' many of whose core ethics we still share. They are not Green or multi-cultural or social modernists. If we can capture a major section of that demographic it will aid us and the Conservatives, and I would be very happy with that outturn. I want to see us do well and although a short-term Labour government under Ed would be politically useful to our further development, I suppose I ought to be more concerned with ensuring that win is narrow or impossible. I am torn between my loathing of the economic damage Labour always rends and my loathing of Cameroon social modernizing. 

There will probably be even more social modernizing with labour. I suggest you are cutting off your nose to spite your face if you vote labour. I also have deep lying issues with the Cameroons (the economic policy) but surely they are better than labour?