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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 14, 2014 2:29:00 GMT
Lab 13268 55.4% UKIP 4301 17.9% Con 3479 14.5% LD 1176 4.9% Grn 748 3.1% BNP 708 3.0% MRLP 288 1.2%
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 14, 2014 2:29:01 GMT
Sky News shows declaration, BBC News showing weather forecast.
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 14, 2014 2:31:29 GMT
Disappointing for UKIP? My prediction was Lab53, UKIP 23, Con 14, LD 5.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 14, 2014 2:32:02 GMT
Lab +11.2 UKIP +14.5 C -11.0 L Dem -17.4 BNP -0.9
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 14, 2014 2:32:35 GMT
Sky News shows declaration, BBC News showing weather forecast. Now they're showing the Asia business report lol.
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 14, 2014 2:33:02 GMT
Percentages: [my prediction]
Lab 55.36% [54.06%] UKIP 17.94% [20.73%] Con 14.52% [16.46%] LD 4.91% [4.91%] Green 3.12% [1.11%] BNP 2.95% [2.22%] Loony 1.20% [0.52%]
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,534
Member is Online
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 14, 2014 2:33:38 GMT
What a pathetic hack this new Labour MP is. Bloody hell fellas, a brand new Labour MP quoting that arch Tory Disraeli. One Nation Labour is an appalling slogan and a completely nebulous concept. Rant over...
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 14, 2014 2:34:55 GMT
We seem to have some confusion already: Labour vote 13,268 or 13,261?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 14, 2014 2:35:14 GMT
Disappointing for UKIP? My prediction was Lab53, UKIP 23, Con 14, LD 5. Personally I would have taken 20% as the benchmark. Fairly arbitrary of course, but above that I'd have been happy below it a bit disappointed. They shouldn't have over-hyped their chances here although I appreciate the need to give an impression of momentum. I think the party has a bnit to learn about expectation management
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Post by Devonian on Feb 14, 2014 2:35:31 GMT
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Post by independentukip on Feb 14, 2014 2:38:31 GMT
Disappointing for UKIP? My prediction was Lab53, UKIP 23, Con 14, LD 5. I don't think your prediction means it was disappointing for UKIP. Farage, I recall from somewhere, suggested UKIP would be on about 15% so adding in the 'management' the actual result was what I would term very good overall with the added crucial & trumping element of the party coming second.
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 14, 2014 2:39:27 GMT
Why did UKIP do better in South Shields? I'd say it's the east vs west phenomenon.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Feb 14, 2014 2:41:35 GMT
What a pathetic hack this new Labour MP is. Bloody hell fellas, a brand new Labour MP quoting that arch Tory Disraeli. One Nation Labour is an appalling slogan and a completely nebulous concept. Rant over... Kudos though for his tribute to Alf Morris, who, with my first MP Jack Ashley, genuinely cared anout and understood the needs of people with disabilities, something which no-one, but no-one in this current Coalition (and even very few in the Parliamentary Labour Party) can claim.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 14, 2014 2:42:04 GMT
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 14, 2014 2:42:20 GMT
I quite liked it...where Manchester leads the rest of Britain follows
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Post by johnloony on Feb 14, 2014 2:44:07 GMT
So, the Lib Dem was 23 votes away from holding the deposit. For what it's worth, the number of votes I got in 2005 increased from 190 to 193 as a result of the three recounts.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,315
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 14, 2014 2:45:20 GMT
Why did UKIP do better in South Shields? I'd say it's the east vs west phenomenon. Circumstances of the by-election, the fact that one was held during great UKIP hype from the media and the one wasn't, Labour having a better organisation in Manchester than South Shields. So nowt of significance, actually.
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 14, 2014 2:48:41 GMT
So, the Lib Dem was 23 votes away from holding the deposit. For what it's worth, the number of votes I got in 2005 increased from 190 to 193 as a result of the three recounts. The moment I heard about the by-election I had this uncanny feeling they were going to lose their deposit by a handful of votes, as they also did in Corby where it was 14 votes.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,315
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 14, 2014 2:49:13 GMT
Biggest percentage majority ever for Labour here, including when the seat was just Wythenshawe.
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Post by independentukip on Feb 14, 2014 2:56:38 GMT
Personally I would have taken 20% as the benchmark. Fairly arbitrary of course, but above that I'd have been happy below it a bit disappointed. They shouldn't have over-hyped their chances here although I appreciate the need to give an impression of momentum. I think the party has a bnit to learn about expectation management I didn't gain the impression the party over-hyped their chances. The Farage comments which are linked on a page here somewhere got the result pretty well right if a minor management element is added. It appears to me the over expectations were a product of the media lacking any idea or interest in what was happening on the ground. Surely any element of momentum was to gain the second place as was achieved as the first place was never in doubt. Subject to the assessment of the forum member on the ground I'm very satisfied at this result for UKIP. It is once again saying to voters in safe Labour areas that if you oppose Labour it is simply between them and UKIP.
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