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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 13, 2014 19:35:52 GMT
I know. It's likely i'll still play a part in the campaign though, as I'm still the only person in the party with experience in the constituency, living there since birth for 22 years and being the only UKIP Councillor (parish) in Wythenshawe and even Greater Manchester, not forgetting I've ran the local election campaigns and stood 7 times since 2010. Indeed in 2010, you ran in the ward next to the one I contested, in my only electoral foray. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2014 22:21:18 GMT
I don't think I'm being negative, just politically aware. Considering the impact this election could have, it's unlikely we will be taking any extra risks when it comes to the election. Joe does raise a good point though, in that you are quite different from the average perception of a UKIP candidate. That seemed to be more benefit than hindrance to Diane James in Eastleigh, for example. And as you've already pointed out, you're a local candidate with substantial local electoral history. UKIP could parachute in a big hitter, I suppose Paul Nuttall would be the most sensible, but they're going to face accusations of carpetbaggery. Bringing in a Scouser to contest a Manchester seat is a pretty disastrous idea. I think a 23 (ish) year old without any record would be a big risk, but provided Chris passes the extra background tests and doesn't have a secret bunker stashed with Nazi memorabilia (which i'm sure he does not) then his record of local leadership and commitment should get him the candidature. I would be moderately pissed off in his situation if I didn't get it. The only plausible reason would be ageism - as its not even related to experience - which he has. He might be being astute in thinking he will not get the candidature, but that does not make such a decision justifiable. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 13, 2014 23:10:37 GMT
Joe does raise a good point though, in that you are quite different from the average perception of a UKIP candidate. That seemed to be more benefit than hindrance to Diane James in Eastleigh, for example. And as you've already pointed out, you're a local candidate with substantial local electoral history. UKIP could parachute in a big hitter, I suppose Paul Nuttall would be the most sensible, but they're going to face accusations of carpetbaggery. Bringing in a Scouser to contest a Manchester seat is a pretty disastrous idea. I think a 23 (ish) year old without any record would be a big risk, but provided Chris passes the extra background tests and doesn't have a secret bunker stashed with Nazi memorabilia (which i'm sure he does not) then his record of local leadership and commitment should get him the candidature. I would be moderately pissed off in his situation if I didn't get it. The only plausible reason would be ageism - as its not even related to experience - which he has. He might be being astute in thinking he will not get the candidature, but that does not make such a decision justifiable. This is going to be high profile with a lot of media attention. And there is an odds-off chance of an Eastleigh effect and surprise result. Any party would wish to massage the campaign, review candidacy, and generally take control. Yes, it would be ageist to bump Chris and arrange a parachute candidate, but probably inevitable unless Chris is media savvy and has done his courses in media (radio, TV and party policy handling). I would probably talk him out of standing but make him chief SPAD and promise to groom him for a prime seat in 2015. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2014 23:32:14 GMT
I don't think it has the demographics to be another Eastleigh. Chris would be the expert obviously though,
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 13, 2014 23:37:29 GMT
Toby Young has called for the Conservative candidate to withdraw in favour of UKIP.
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Post by Chris Cassidy on Jan 13, 2014 23:42:59 GMT
Well, I'm a grade A assessed candidate, with TV, radio and national newspaper experience and I'm also approved to assess other candidates including MEP candidates. I've contested 7 elections including a parliamentary by-election, I have experience as a parish councillor, branch chairman and as an officer of the youth wing twice. I've worked as a Political Researcher for an MEP and I'm currently part of the senior management in UKIP HQ. I really is purely down to my age I think... But I really don't mind. It's important we give the constituency the best shot we can and we should avoid putting up someone with potential negatives such as too young, too old etc.
As for grooming! I'd never want to stand anywhere else other than Wythenshawe really, it's why I got involved in politics 7 years ago.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 14, 2014 0:30:47 GMT
Well, I'm a grade A assessed candidate, with TV, radio and national newspaper experience and I'm also approved to assess other candidates including MEP candidates. I've contested 7 elections including a parliamentary by-election, I have experience as a parish councillor, branch chairman and as an officer of the youth wing twice. I've worked as a Political Researcher for an MEP and I'm currently part of the senior management in UKIP HQ. I really is purely down to my age I think... But I really don't mind. It's important we give the constituency the best shot we can and we should avoid putting up someone with potential negatives such as too young, too old etc. As for grooming! I'd never want to stand anywhere else other than Wythenshawe really, it's why I got involved in politics 7 years ago. Your first para changes my view entirely. It is all about age and gravitas. I don't know your patch so can't assess how important that factor would be? The final para does limit you and makes this more of an imperative. Local man. Ought to be from the region at least. Just how many tried, tested and coursed up candidates does the party have on hand? It looks more and more like you. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 14, 2014 9:53:55 GMT
I would have thought that there may be some advantage to UKIP in having a young candidate who's not a complete nutjob in a high profile election. It might challenge the stereotype of the party and broaden their appeal?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 14, 2014 20:23:41 GMT
I don't think it has the demographics to be another Eastleigh. Chris would be the expert obviously though, It's very, very, very different to Eastleigh, I agree with your prognosis- there's not much Tory vote to squeeze but then the Lib vote could be squeezed. |
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bjt
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Post by bjt on Jan 14, 2014 22:59:27 GMT
I don't think it has the demographics to be another Eastleigh. Chris would be the expert obviously though, It's very, very, very different to Eastleigh, I agree with your prognosis- there's not much Tory vote to squeeze but then the Lib vote could be squeezed. In terms of recent by-elections Wythenshaw is closer demographically to Rotherham - strong Labour lead, Tories ahead of Lib Dem but neither close to winning - with a significant BNP presence (although this was much larger in Rotherham). |
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Post by Chris Cassidy on Jan 14, 2014 23:21:09 GMT
It's very, very, very different to Eastleigh, I agree with your prognosis- there's not much Tory vote to squeeze but then the Lib vote could be squeezed. In terms of recent by-elections Wythenshaw is closer demographically to Rotherham - strong Labour lead, Tories ahead of Lib Dem but neither close to winning - with a significant BNP presence (although this was much larger in Rotherham). There is no BNP presence in Wythenshawe any more. They beat UKIP in every election in Wythenshawe in 2010, but since then we've been able to overtake them where they stand. I think the last BNP candidate in Wythenshawe contested the Baguley by-election in 2011? The Manchester BNP branch covers the Wythenshawe area and the BNP put most of the resources into the Northern part of Manchester. |
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bjt
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Post by bjt on Jan 14, 2014 23:36:49 GMT
In terms of recent by-elections Wythenshaw is closer demographically to Rotherham - strong Labour lead, Tories ahead of Lib Dem but neither close to winning - with a significant BNP presence (although this was much larger in Rotherham). There is no BNP presence in Wythenshawe any more. They beat UKIP in every election in Wythenshawe in 2010, but since then we've been able to overtake them where they stand. I think the last BNP candidate in Wythenshawe contested the Baguley by-election in 2011? The Manchester BNP branch covers the Wythenshawe area and the BNP put most of the resources into the Northern part of Manchester. With apologies, I stand corrected. I was merely trying to point out that, as in Rotherham, UKIP will be squeezing votes from Conservatives, Lib Dem & BNP. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 15, 2014 0:25:38 GMT
But the cause of the byelection in Wythenshawe is as far removed from that in Rotherham as possible.
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Post by Chris Cassidy on Jan 15, 2014 0:27:20 GMT
There is no BNP presence in Wythenshawe any more. They beat UKIP in every election in Wythenshawe in 2010, but since then we've been able to overtake them where they stand. I think the last BNP candidate in Wythenshawe contested the Baguley by-election in 2011? The Manchester BNP branch covers the Wythenshawe area and the BNP put most of the resources into the Northern part of Manchester. With apologies, I stand corrected. I was merely trying to point out that, as in Rotherham, UKIP will be squeezing votes from Conservatives, Lib Dem & BNP. No need for apologies  . Just trying to give as much info as I can about what it's like on the ground. I agree with your analysis on who we could be squeezing. Also, postal votes for this constituency is 23,000+. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2014 15:42:53 GMT
Also, postal votes for this constituency is 23,000+. More than likely when it is said Labour have this one in the bag they mean the postal bag. If they want to reform voting then the removal of postal votes should be included. It should be mandatory voting in person with ID on the day. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2014 16:34:30 GMT
Also, postal votes for this constituency is 23,000+. More than likely when it is said Labour have this one in the bag they mean the postal bag. If they want to reform voting then the removal of postal votes should be included. It should be mandatory voting in person with ID on the day. Quite agree |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 15, 2014 17:50:53 GMT
I suspect the local CLP has a voter ID rate of rather higher than 0.2% in this one, too. (that is a comparison with S Shields, not Rotherham - lest anybody should get confused  ) |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2014 18:05:08 GMT
The Requiem Mass is at 12 noon tomorrow. Could we hold back a bit on the party political comments for a few more hours please?
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Post by AdminSTB on Jan 17, 2014 10:54:57 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 17, 2014 12:26:46 GMT
I love it how someone tries to claim that UKIP are a bottom up party in one the comments!
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. Just trying to give as much info as I can about what it's like on the ground. I agree with your analysis on who we could be squeezing. 
) 