European Election 2014 - France

[Devonian]

It seems that Ifop are going to be doing daily Euro polls for Paris-Match. This one is 8th-11th April

FN 24%
UMP 22.5%
PS 21%
UDI/MoDem 9.5%
FG 8.5%
EE-LV 7.5%
NPA 2%
DLR 1.5%

www.parismatch.com/Actu/Politique/Eurorolling-le-PS-devance-pas-ecrase-559319

[Devonian]

As well as doing daily national Euro polls for Paris Match Ifop are also now doing a series of poll for each of the Euro constituencies for Le Figaro. This is the first of them for the East constituency

FN 26%

UMP 24%

PS 15.5%

EE-LV 12.5%

MD/UDI 7.5%

FG 6.5%

NPA 3%

LO 1.5%

ND 1.5%

DRP 0.5%

www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2014/04/22/01002-20140422ARTFIG00378-le-fn-en-tete-aux-europeennes-dans-le-grand-est.php

[Devonian]

By my calculations the result would be

FN 3 seats (+2) ( 8.7% per seat)

UMP 3 seats (-1) (8% per seat)

PS 2 seats (nc) (7.75% per seat)

EE-LV 1 seat (nc) (12.5 % per seat)

MoDem 0 seats (-1) (0.25% short of the final seat)

[Tony Otim]

Obviously looking very good for FN. That's not so bad for the Greens, anywhere the Socialists go back from 2009 can't be good. Not looking great for MoDem either.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Apr 23, 2014 12:10:27 GMT Tony Otim said:

Obviously looking very good for FN. That's not so bad for the Greens, anywhere the Socialists go back from 2009 can't be good. Not looking great for MoDem either.

As a caveat- Est contains some of the most reliably right-wing areas of the entire country, including (and especially) Alsace.

[Tony Otim]

Apr 23, 2014 17:34:14 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Apr 23, 2014 12:10:27 GMT Tony Otim said:

Obviously looking very good for FN. That's not so bad for the Greens, anywhere the Socialists go back from 2009 can't be good. Not looking great for MoDem either.

As a caveat- Est contains some of the most reliably right-wing areas of the entire country, including (and especially) Alsace.

True, but I was more making a comparison with 2009 compared with national polls. The regional right-ness of Est might go some way to explain why the PS is falling back on 2009 figures when the national polls have them creeping forward. Both national and regional polls are very good for FN at the moment. I guess the bit I was highlighting was that the Green vote is holding up better there than national figures indicate, which surprise me, whereas MoDem continue to go backwards again in contrast to national polls that have them a bit up on 2009. Will be interesting to see other regions to get a flavour of the variation.

[Devonian]

Looking to see if I could find the latest Ifop/Le Figaro Euro constituency poll I found this tweet concerning the South West constituency

Damien Obrador ‏@damienobrador · 3h
Sondage #EP2014 Sud-Ouest : @malliotmarie 24%, @louis_aliot 22%, @vroziere 19%, @josebove 8,5%, @robertrochefort 8%, @jlmelenchon 7,5% #IFOP

I haven't been able to confirm it but if it is correct that would be

UMP 24%

FN 22%

PS 19%

EE-LV 8.5%

MoDem/UDI 8%

FG 7.5%

[Devonian]

I would calculate that to mean

UMP 3 seats (-1) (8% per seat)

FN 2 seats (+2) (11% per seat)

PS 2 seats (nc) (9.5% per seat)

EE-LV 1 seat (-1) (8.5% per seat)

MoDem/UDI 1 seat (nc) (8% per seat)

FG 1 seat (nc) (7.5% per seat)

So the last seat would go to the Front de Gauche but with the FN just 0.5% short of getting the final seat as their third seat.

[Devonian]

In the national Euro polls UMP have pulled in front of the FN in the daily Ifop polls

Ifop poll 22-25 April

UMP 23.5%
FN 22.5%
PS 19.5%
UDI/MoDem 10%
EE-LV 8.5%

FG 8%

NPA 2%
DLR 2%

www.parismatch.com/Actu/Politique/Eurorolling-l-abstention-au-plus-fort-561353

[Devonian]

Ifop Euro poll for the South East constituency 23-28 April

UMP  28%

FN      23%

PS      13%

EE-LV 11%

MoDem/UDI  8.5%

FG       7%

DLR     2.5%

NPA    2%

www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2014/04/29/01002-20140429ARTFIG00436-europeennes-sanction-en-vue-pour-le-ps-dans-le-sud-est.php

[Devonian]

The seat allocation for South East France based on that poll would be as follows

UMP 4 seats (-1) (7% per seat)

FN      4 seats (+3) (5.75% per seat)

PS      2 seats (nc) (6.5% per seat)

EE-LV 1 seat (-2) (11% per seat)

MoDem 1 seat (nc) (8.5% per seat)

FG       1 seat (nc) (7% per seat)

It looks like the last seat is between FN, UMP and EE-LV. On these figures the FN gain the last seat slightly ahead of the UMP and EE-LV

[Devonian]

CSA poll 15/05

FN 25%

UMP 21%

PS 18

UDI/MoDem 9%

EE-LV 8%

FG 6.5%

www.nicematin.com/derniere-minute/sondage-europeennes-le-fn-toujours-en-tete-des-intentions-de-vote.1740258.html

[Devonian]

In a move that will outrage millions of conservative French voters, the head of the French Socialist party has ceded his spot in a debate with Marine Le Pen, leader of the right-wing eurosceptic Front National, to Martin Schulz, a German socialist politician who is president of the European Parliament.

A French national debate scheduled May 22 was meant to feature the top candidates for the European Parliament from each of the French parties. Now it may instead feature the German Schulz, candidate of the Socialist group in the parliament to become the next president of the European Commission, who was once described by the Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi as perfect to play the part of a concentration camp guard in a film about the war.

The move is akin to UKIP's Nigel Farage offering to debate Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg again, with the latter sending Herman Van Rompuy, or Jose Manuel Barroso in his place.

Le Pen has mocked the decision, saying: “It is typical that the Socialist Party sends a German to discuss the future of France.”

According to a report in European Voice, Jean-Christophe Cambadélis, first secretary of the Parti Socialiste, said he would give his party’s spot in the debate to Schulz in order to force Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right Front National, to debate the German euro-politician.

The Socialist Party has complained that the debate in France has been entirely focused on national issues, which has given an edge to Le Pen. The Socialists already requested that Le Pen debate Schulz in early April, believing that she would embarrass herself with a lack of knowledge of European Union issues. However Le Pen refused to take part in that debate, according to European Voice.

The Front National has said Le Pen would agree to participate in the May 22 debate if France2, the television broadcaster presenting the debate, and Schulz, who speaks fluent French, agree to it.

www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/16/German-invades-France

[Devil Wincarnate]

Old Jean-Marie is at it again:
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/10847344/Jean-Marie-Le-Pen-Ebola-epidemic-would-solve-immigration-problems.html

Can't help but think this has been planned.

[andrea]

Exit polls

Front National 25.3
UMP 20.3
Socialists 14.7
UDi/Modem 10
Greens 8.7
Left Front 6.6
Seats projection

FN 23-25
UMP 18-21
Socialists 13
UDI/Modem 6-8
Greens 6
Left Front 3-5

[carlton43]

May 25, 2014 18:11:10 GMT andrea said:

Exit polls

Front National 25.3
UMP 20.3
Socialists 14.7
UDi/Modem 10
Greens 8.7
Left Front 6.6
Seats projection

FN 23-25
UMP 18-21
Socialists 13
UDI/Modem 6-8
Greens 6
Left Front 3-5

That is an exceptional performance by FN to achieve over a quarter of the poll in the face of such a fractured basket of parties, and to see the governing party of Socialists drop to third place with less than 15%. I can't pretend not to be absolutely delighted on both counts. That puffed up little creep Hollande has had it well and truly stuck to him and IMO most thoroughly deserved. It is always a delight to the French left stiffed and this is about as good a 'stiffing' as one could possibly hope for.

[Devonian]

Map of winning party by Departement





Grey - FN
Dark Blue - UMP
Light Blue - UDI-MoDem
Green - EE-LV
Red - PS
Pink - DVG

[Devil Wincarnate]

Wow- a strong FN showing even in the anti-clerical strongholds in Brittany (even allowing for the Le Pen connection) and La Rochelle and district.  And Nord Pas-de-Calais, for all of the talk of Henin-Beaumont, surprises me.  The last time I spent a prolonged period in Lille, Roubaix and Tourcoing, during the 2012 legislatives, there was very little sign of the FN other than when I did go to Henin, Lievin and other small places round there.  Lille in particular had lots of clear FdG activity.  And yet unless Lille, Roubaix and Tourcoing voted for the FN in large numbers, I doubt N-PdC could have been carried.

[Devonian]

May 29, 2014 19:52:19 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Wow- a strong FN showing even in the anti-clerical strongholds in Brittany (even allowing for the Le Pen connection) and La Rochelle and district.  And Nord Pas-de-Calais, for all of the talk of Henin-Beaumont, surprises me.  The last time I spent a prolonged period in Lille, Roubaix and Tourcoing, during the 2012 legislatives, there was very little sign of the FN other than when I did go to Henin, Lievin and other small places round there.  Lille in particular had lots of clear FdG activity.  And yet unless Lille, Roubaix and Tourcoing voted for the FN in large numbers, I doubt N-PdC could have been carried.

The results for N-PdC were

FN 35.15%
UMP 16.44%
PS 11.63%
MoDem 10.15%
FdG 7.20%
EE-LV 6.8%

elections.interieur.gouv.fr/ER2014/01/031/031.html

[Devonian]

Full details of results here

elections.interieur.gouv.fr/ER2014/index.html