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Post by Deleted on Mar 23, 2014 17:48:42 GMT
More minor party news- we've got militant Esperantists standing again! In other major political news, a firefighter in Grenoble refused to shake Manuel Valls's hand. What is it about French politicians and minor quarrels about shaking hands? Esperanto enthusiasts standing in the UK would be grand... |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 25, 2014 9:02:11 GMT
I suspect after those municipal that the Euros are going to prove to be a good night for the FN, a solid night for the UMP but without any real advance, not good for he PS and a shambles for the Heinz 57 varieties of far-left.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 25, 2014 10:15:54 GMT
I suspect after those municipal that the Euros are going to prove to be a good night for the FN, a solid night for the UMP but without any real advance, not good for he PS and a shambles for the Heinz 57 varieties of far-left. Well the Socialists had a dreadful election in 2009, so it would be difficult for them to fall much further. IT also means UMP stand to lose more seats than them currently. FN had a bad election as well last time (losing over half their MEPs), so look to make big gains from a low start. Seat changes from the latest Pollwatch prediction would be: UMP - 10 FN +15 EEV -10 PS nc Modem +2 Front de Gauche +3 Debout la Republique +1 Mouvement pour la France/Libertas -1 So the Socialists hold steady (albeit from a very low start), UMP fall back by a third, and Front de Gauche advance, so so far the polls wouldn't support your suspicion. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Mar 25, 2014 10:43:15 GMT
Who are Debout la Republique?
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 25, 2014 13:08:22 GMT
Who are Debout la Republique? A splinter from UMP led by Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. In fact I'm not sure there is much to them except Dupont-Aignan. |
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 25, 2014 13:29:35 GMT
More minor party news- we've got militant Esperantists standing again! In other major political news, a firefighter in Grenoble refused to shake Manuel Valls's hand. What is it about French politicians and minor quarrels about shaking hands? They are French.......Nuff said! |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Mar 25, 2014 14:49:43 GMT
Who are Debout la Republique? A splinter from UMP led by Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. In fact I'm not sure there is much to them except Dupont-Aignan. Correct, a vanity project masquerading as the heirs of de Gaulle. A successful enough vanity project as vanity projects go, mind. I'm always amazed that despite France's left-wing reputation, calling yourself "miscellaneous right-wing" or even "reactionary" (see Menard in Perpignan) can often be a vote-winner. |
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Post by Devonian on Apr 3, 2014 20:38:49 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 3, 2014 21:54:15 GMT
Shambolic for everything left of Melenchon. Not exactly brilliant for anyone else bar Marine, Franny B and big fat Jean-Louis.
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Post by iainbhx on Apr 4, 2014 6:14:11 GMT
Difficult to say exactly how the seats would fall given the Euro constituencies, but I'd take a punt at
UNP 19, FN 17, PS 15, MoDem/UDI 10, FdG 7, EELV 6
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2014 6:53:11 GMT
I wouldn't shake Manuel Vall's hand either! Just as I would not shake that of Tony Blair or Ed Miliband. I WILL however be voting PS for the Euros just as I did for the Municipals in both rounds in March. My Commune bucked the trend and stayed PS.   |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 4, 2014 8:21:27 GMT
MoDem and EE are pretty much reverting to 2004 levels following the 2009 result which was a pretty freakish for the Greens. Big improvement for FN, UMP falling back but not by as much as they leapt forward last time. FDG continue creeping up and PS actually slightly up on 2009 which was a disaster for them. Dupont-Aignan may just creep in...
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Post by Devonian on Apr 9, 2014 16:08:58 GMT
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 9, 2014 16:18:13 GMT
Changes from 2009 and 2004: UMP -3 +8 FN +18 +14 PS +3 -10 EELV -7 +2 Modem +1 -4 FDG +1 +1 |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 9, 2014 18:34:06 GMT
Ah, the NPA- there's a busted flush.
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 9, 2014 22:40:50 GMT
This looks really good for the Purples on both sides of the La Manche. Just a little more effort and we can do some real damage to the old dispositions. |
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Post by Devonian on Apr 9, 2014 23:02:56 GMT
This looks really good for the Purples on both sides of the La Manche. Just a little more effort and we can do some real damage to the old dispositions. There does seem to be a rise in the polling for 'Eurosceptic' parties in at least a few countries. I've just posted a Danish poll in the Scandinavia European election thread that shows the Danish People's Party increasing their lead over the other parties (as well as the left wing 'People's Movement against the EU' increasing their poll numbers) |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 10, 2014 7:54:21 GMT
Ah, the NPA- there's a busted flush. Not sure they ever got close enough to being a flush to be considered as being a busted anything, TBH... |
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Post by Devonian on Apr 11, 2014 12:58:51 GMT
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 11, 2014 13:50:31 GMT
PS above 20% is probably more of a surprise on recent showings than FN being in the lead.
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