By-elections - 17th October 2013

[greatkingrat]

CARLISLE - Dalston (Conservative resigned)

2012 - LD 1033, Con 481, Lab 305, UKIP 174
2011 - Con 1108, LD 500, Lab 478, UKIP 170
2010 - Con 1715, LD 1241, Lab 658
2008 - LD 1151, Con 928, Lab 216
2007 - Con 1037, LD 598, Lab 319
2006 - LD 891, Con 874, Lab 246

Ruth ALCROFT (The Labour Party Candidate)
Robert DICKINSON (UK Independence Party)
Michael GEE (Liberal Democrat)
Michael RANDALL (The Conservative Party Candidate)
James TUCKER (The Green Party)

CHICHESTER - Westbourne (Conservative resigned)

2011 - Con 515, LD 315
2007 - Con 445, LD 172
2003 - Con 391, Lab 122, UKIP 101

Alicia DENNY (UK Independence Party)
Mark DUNN (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Andrew EMERSON (Patria)
Thomas FRENCH (Green Party)
Philip MACDOUGALL (Liberal Democrat)

LUTON - Barnfield (Liberal Democrat resigned)

2011 - LD 904/808, Lab 822/679, Con 691/657, Grn 171
2007 - LD 1074/1050, Con 665/639, Ind 501, Lab 288/269, UKIP 137, Grn 124
2003 - LD 1001/887, Con 698/614, Lab 285/261

Simon HALL (Green Party)
Clive MEAD (Liberal Democrats)
Geoff SIMONS (Conservative and Unionist Party)
Francis STEER (Labour Party Candidate)

NEATH AND PORT TALBOT - Sandsfield East (Labour died)

2012 - Ind 1116/622, Lab 1041/879/750, NPTI 669
2008 - Ind 1251, Lab 921/912/609, NPTRA 520/472, Bean 369
2004 - Ind 1478, Lab 1010/900/819, Bean 522

Mike DAVIES (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru)
Barry KIRK (Port Talbot Residents Association)
Richard MINSHULL (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate)
Keith SUTER (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Daniel THOMAS (Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales)

SOUTH LAKELAND - Levens (Liberal Democrat resigned)

2012 - LD 635, Con 458, Grn 45
2011 - LD 667, Con 472, Lab 58
2008 - LD 737, Con 412

Annie RAWLINSON (Liberal Democrats)
Brian RENDELL (The Conservative Party Candidate)

THURROCK - Stifford Clays (Labour died)

2011 - Lab 877, Con 523, UKIP 475, LD 68
2010 - Lab 1184, Con 1108, UKIP 642, BNP 249
2007 - Lab 762, Con 632, BNP 435
2006 - Con 829, Lab 795, LD 296

Clive BROAD (UKIP Local Residents)
Kevin MULROUE (Liberal Democrat)
Danny NICKLEN (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Susan SHINNICK (Labour Party Candidate)

[David Ashforth]

	Ward map	ONS data
CARLISLE – Dalston	link	link
CHICHESTER - Westbourne	link	link
LUTON - Barnfield	link	link
NEATH & PORT TALBOT - Sandfields East	link	link
SOUTH LAKELAND - Levens	link	link
THURROCK - Stifford Clays	link	link

[Deleted]

So there's a "Pigwilly Wood" in Levens ward, and I laughed heartedly.

[greatkingrat]

Make a note of that for the next boundary review.

[Deleted]

Does anybody know why there was such a big swing from Conservative to Lib Dem in Dalston ward between 2001 and 2012?

[greatkingrat]

It seems clear that the LD cllr elected in 2008/2012 has a significant personal vote, who will not all necessarily vote for a generic LD candidate in other years.

[gwynthegriff]

Patria?

[Richard Cromwell]

Oct 3, 2013 16:00:39 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Patria?

Yet another in the long line of far-right splinter groups...

[greatkingrat]

Random BNP splinter no. 27

www.patria-uk.org/

[AdminSTB]

Is anyone keeping track - are there more far left or far right outfits registered at the moment?

[marksenior]

Sept 27, 2013 15:37:52 GMT greatkingrat said:

It seems clear that the LD cllr elected in 2008/2012 has a significant personal vote, who will not all necessarily vote for a generic LD candidate in other years.

He also won the similar but not identical county council divisions in both 2009 and 2013

[Deleted]

Oct 3, 2013 17:44:13 GMT AdminSTB said:

Is anyone keeping track - are there more far left or far right outfits registered at the moment?

I feel another thread coming on...

[anewdawn]

Hmm in Chichester with UKIP and that Patria splitting the Tory vote, and LDs being far from popular, couldn't this be another Torrington?

[Tony Otim]

Oct 6, 2013 10:26:31 GMT anewdawn said:

Hmm in Chichester with UKIP and that Patria splitting the Tory vote, and LDs being far from popular, couldn't this be another Torrington?

I seriously doubt it.

[marksenior]

Oct 6, 2013 10:26:31 GMT anewdawn said:

Hmm in Chichester with UKIP and that Patria splitting the Tory vote, and LDs being far from popular, couldn't this be another Torrington?

Not a chance , the ward is part of the Bourne West Sussex CC division won by UKIP in May so this by election will be a Con/UKIP fight

[anewdawn]

Oct 6, 2013 12:21:18 GMT marksenior said:

Oct 6, 2013 10:26:31 GMT anewdawn said:

Hmm in Chichester with UKIP and that Patria splitting the Tory vote, and LDs being far from popular, couldn't this be another Torrington?

Not a chance , the ward is part of the Bourne West Sussex CC division won by UKIP in May so this by election will be a Con/UKIP fight

Ok, so the demographics aren't there, but in terms of the make-up of the various parties contesting the seat, it's quire similar? Jumped out at me a bit, it did!

[Deleted]

Mark Dunn is the former county councillor for Bourne who lost quite unexpectedly to UKIP in May. He's a really nice guy and very popular with his group (he was chair of WSCC until 2012), so I'd expect them to pull all the stops out for him to win.
I'd like the Greens to do well, but I'm not convinced it's good territory for us. If we can get ahead of the LibDems I'd be very happy.
Patria won't get more than a handful of votes, IMHO

[Deleted]

Patria don't have the strength to split a packet of biscuits let alone the Tory vote.

[Richard Cromwell]

Oct 6, 2013 13:09:12 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Mark Dunn is the former county councillor for Bourne who lost quite unexpectedly to UKIP in May. He's a really nice guy and very popular with his group (he was chair of WSCC until 2012), so I'd expect them to pull all the stops out for him to win.
I'd like the Greens to do well, but I'm not convinced it's good territory for us. If we can get ahead of the LibDems I'd be very happy.
Patria won't get more than a handful of votes, IMHO

Are Patria actually there? Is there any actual ground presence? It seems absurd that thre would be but, I admit, I know very little about them. 

[greatkingrat]

As far as I know, their only previous electoral experience was in the West Sussex CC elections this May, when Andrew Emerson got 26 votes in Chichester West.