Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2013 10:26:00 GMT
So it seems that the areas that consistantly give UKIP their best results are Moray and North East Fife. Is there some distinct demographic factor these places have in common or might it simply be that they happen to have more effective branches? 'Branches' is perhaps a bit of an overstatement, at least in the case of North East Fife. It's more that there's one perennial candidate who happens to have been a councillor until last year. To be honest, North East Fife is a lot like much of Devon in many ways. Artsy touristy fishing villages, intensive farmland, country houses, retired people, slightly less picturesque inland towns and villages... though with a prestigious university and an RAF base. If you can identify the core UKIP voters in Devon then you might not be that far off finding the sort of people who have voted UKIP in North East Fife. I'd be stunned if it came mostly from St Andrews St Georges though, let alone from St Andrews St Georges students. fixed |
|
|
|
Post by erlend on Oct 23, 2013 10:44:14 GMT
But Jimboo shouldn't that be St Maggie's. I doubt many of them are interested in some Turkish mercenary who never came to England.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2013 11:30:24 GMT
St Andrews is more international middle-class than 'English' really. It looks abroad as much as it looks to the rest of the UK.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2013 11:36:03 GMT
As a record collector I was initially surprised at the number of classical records of foreign origin to be found the St Andrews area. As a father whose boy is among those being head hunted by St Andrews in their social inclusion programme I should perhaps haud ma wheesht in relation to the Uni.
|
|
|
|
Post by froome on Oct 24, 2013 8:45:01 GMT
Down here in the south of England I haven't really taken much notice of this election, and have only just realised that there is a local authority by-election in the constituency on the same day. I would guess this is quite a rare event.
Does anyone know how many times there have been parliamentary by-elections with a by-election in the same constituency for a different layer of government at the same time?
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 24, 2013 8:48:48 GMT
I don't know how many times, but there was a by-election in Oundle ward of East Northamptonshire DC on 15th November 2012, on the same day as the parliamentary by-election in Corby
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2013 9:35:48 GMT
I hope you are all going down to the river forth and taking pics of the new Chinese bridge being built.
|
|
|
|
Post by AdminSTB on Oct 24, 2013 16:33:34 GMT
I'm starting to think the Greens may do a lot better than I expected here. Not to winning levels, of course, but I would be increasingly unsurprised if they actually held their deposit. Frustratingly, that will probably be at the expense of the SNP, from whom the Greens seem to be picking up votes (as well as from former Lib Dem voters who may have otherwise gone SNP this time).
|
|
andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
|
Post by andrea on Oct 24, 2013 18:48:47 GMT
Alex Salmond has arrived in Dunfermline for the latest push. Should we read something into this visit so late on election day? Can SLAB really lose it?
One of the Sunday Herald journalists (Paul Hutcheon) wondered the same but added Labour is still confident.
|
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 24, 2013 19:05:35 GMT
Alex Salmond has arrived in Dunfermline for the latest push. Should we ready something into this visit so late on election day? Can SLAB really lose it? One of the Sunday Herald journalists (Paul Hutcheon) wondered the same but added Labour is still confident. It's possible, but he turned up at the conference centre in Aberdeen the day after the local elections. Maybe the SNP are just crap at working out whether or not they're going to win. |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 24, 2013 19:38:36 GMT
The normal rule about Prime Ministers and byelections in the UK is that the PM doesn't personally campaign in a byelection, and the underlying theory was that a defeat or poor performance by the PM's party might directly damage the PM's image of being in charge.
Salmond has been all over the Dunfermline campaign from the start. This could be an interesting test of an old theory.
|
|
andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
|
Post by andrea on Oct 24, 2013 20:03:09 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2013 20:22:02 GMT
I'm starting to think the Greens may do a lot better than I expected here. Not to winning levels, of course, but I would be increasingly unsurprised if they actually held their deposit. Frustratingly, that will probably be at the expense of the SNP, from whom the Greens seem to be picking up votes (as well as from former Lib Dem voters who may have otherwise gone SNP this time). What makes you think this? Signed a pessimistic member, although I think it has expired.. |
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Oct 24, 2013 20:43:50 GMT
Is it correct that the SNP's majority in the Scottish Parliament will be down to one seat if they lose Dunfermline tonight?
|
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,903
Member is Online
|
Post by Tony Otim on Oct 24, 2013 20:57:23 GMT
Technically 2 I think because Tricia marwick as presiding officer takes a voluntary suspension from the party, but shouldn't be added to the opposition numbers, so the SNP would have 65 out of 128 + the presiding officer. If they lost another seat it would be interesting to see whether they would continue as a minority or seek a presiding officer from another party.
|
|
andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
|
Post by andrea on Oct 24, 2013 21:06:02 GMT
Tom Gordon @scottishpol ora
Just met Lab bod in #dunfermline. Seemed little unnerved FM campaigning here this eve. Suggests SNP think they're in with a shout
Political Editor of Scottish Mail tweets that it's "Closer than it should be" in Dunfermline
|
|
|
|
Post by AdminSTB on Oct 24, 2013 21:12:23 GMT
Sounds like expectation management more than anything else. From what I'm hearing, it should be a Labour majority comfortably over a thousand.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,931
|
Post by The Bishop on Oct 24, 2013 21:13:38 GMT
Political Editor of Scottish Mail tweets that it's "Closer than it should be" in Dunfermline Not a single vote has been counted yet, so how can they know? (I know this happens regularly when polls have just closed - still annoying though!) |
|
andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
|
Post by andrea on Oct 24, 2013 21:16:09 GMT
Political Editor of Scottish Mail tweets that it's "Closer than it should be" in Dunfermline Not a single vote has been counted yet, so how can they know? (I know this happens regularly when polls have just closed - still annoying though!) he actually tweeted 1 hour before close of the poll replying to Scottish Herald's guy who said Labour was pretty confident. Sounds like expectation management more than anything else. From what I'm hearing, it should be a Labour majority comfortably over a thousand. Labour was over 3,000 ahead in 2012 locals. So I guess 1,500 could be described as lower than it should be. |
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 24, 2013 21:22:00 GMT
As a general rule of thumb, any on the ground reporting in the last two hours before the polls close or the first hour afterwards has no basis in fact.
|
|
