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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 7, 2013 17:49:01 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 7, 2013 17:54:14 GMT
A Labour gain is most likely IMO. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 7, 2013 17:55:16 GMT
About bloody time!
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Post by martyn on Sept 7, 2013 18:31:30 GMT
I'm just glad all the messing about is over. Sick of hearing about the technicalities over how to remove an MSP.
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johnr
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 1,944 
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Post by johnr on Sept 7, 2013 18:46:03 GMT
The SNP majority was just 590 in 2011, so this will be closely fought. I understand that Labour has already shortlisted and is interviewing.
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Post by marksenior on Sept 7, 2013 18:56:00 GMT
It should not even be close . The Council results in 2012 in the 4 wards making up the Scottish Parliamentary seat ( there is a small bit of a 5th ward but it will not change the figures significantly ) were
Lab 9484
SNP 5336
LDem 3841
Con 1628
Others 1457
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2013 20:12:33 GMT
Shouldn't be close, but the SNP will surely defend it and Labour will have to raise their game to avoid being caught out. A good candidate and a tough team should see them easily safe.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Sept 7, 2013 20:35:18 GMT
Don't forget the Aberdeen Donside rules - if you spend a lot of money on the by-election you are "running scared", if you don't, you've "given up the ghost".
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,772
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Post by andrea on Sept 7, 2013 21:11:58 GMT
It should not even be close . The Council results in 2012 in the 4 wards making up the Scottish Parliamentary seat ( there is a small bit of a 5th ward but it will not change the figures significantly ) were Lab 9484 SNP 5336 LDem 3841 Con 1628 Others 1457 I have similar but slightly different figures. I used 2012 results posted on Kris' website. Lab 9484 SNP 5814 LD 3341 Con 1549 Others 1457 For ex, for LD, I have West Fife and Coastal Villages: 605 Dunfermline North: 518 Dunfermline Central: 1028 Dunfermline South: 1190 |
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Post by marksenior on Sept 8, 2013 8:00:47 GMT
Yes LD figure is 3341 that was a typo ., I may have missed a 2nd SNP candidate in one ward . Will check later , in any case Labour were well ahead of SNP
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2013 9:48:40 GMT
this case shows why you need a recall mechanism for sure. Then he goes and blames the press, that kind of politician is the kind then degrades all.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Sept 8, 2013 10:05:49 GMT
this case shows why you need a recall mechanism for sure. Then he goes and blames the press, that kind of politician is the kind then degrades all. No, we don't need a recall mechanism - we just need the "one-year" rule to be replaced with something tougher. Would any-one in the "real world" have their job kept open for a year if they were sent down for a stretch? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2013 10:13:17 GMT
nope but how many would not have been sacked straight away for the offences ?
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Post by marksenior on Sept 8, 2013 11:14:01 GMT
this case shows why you need a recall mechanism for sure. Then he goes and blames the press, that kind of politician is the kind then degrades all. No, we don't need a recall mechanism - we just need the "one-year" rule to be replaced with something tougher. Would any-one in the "real world" have their job kept open for a year if they were sent down for a stretch? Yes , I can recall several occasions when someone in the real world had a job kept open for them whilst they served a prison sentence . I would agree that it is rather unusual . |
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Post by afleitch on Sept 8, 2013 12:46:23 GMT
I think this is a seat where the Lib Dems will advance a little and the SNP hold on.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 8, 2013 13:21:22 GMT
As has already been pointed out to you in another place, even the Donside swing would see Labour take this comfortably. Nor are the Nats likely to outspend Labour by 2 to 1 again - and why should the LibDems advance now when they had an incumbent MSP last time round?? Not to mention the circumstances of this by-election - and what could well emerge about "how much the SNP knew" in the coming weeks...... In short, an extremely brave (in civil service speak) prediction  |
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johnr
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 1,944
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Post by johnr on Sept 8, 2013 17:39:05 GMT
The Labour campaign will no doubt focus on why the SNP didn't so anything when they knew what Walker was like, and why did they foist this criminal upon the people of Dunfermline.
I hear it is to be AWS for Labour as well.
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,772
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Post by andrea on Sept 8, 2013 18:15:38 GMT
I hear it is to be AWS for Labour as well. The Scottish Herald wrote in an article dated 16 December 2012 that the Scottish National Executive decided for an AWS for Dunfermline without waiting for the full constituency pairing process. Always the Herald was suggesting some names 2 months ago: Cllr Cara Hilton (daughter of former MSP Cathy Peattie and assistant to local MP Thomas Docharty), Fiona Yates (daughter of Cowdenbeath MSP Helen Eadie and wife of a Kirkaldy Cllr) and Cllr Lesley Laird (daughter of former STUC chairman John Langan). Have you heard if they are really in the race? They all sound plausible. Any other women rumoured? They were suggesting Shirley-Anne Somerville for SNP. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 8, 2013 19:39:05 GMT
I would have thought that Somerville was a bit of a marmite candidate for what could be a very close contest. It should be noted that she was the only SNP candidate in Edinburgh who didn't win in 2011.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Sept 8, 2013 20:53:34 GMT
Will the Scottish Greens be fielding a candidate?
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