johnr
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by johnr on Sept 10, 2013 11:41:52 GMT
I would argue that, at least in strong Labour areas such as Fife, the list seats are NOT safe. Its only become that way now because labour failed to win large numbers of constituencies - such as Dunfermline. A labour revival in Fife, with the party picking up lots of seats across the region could make list MSPs vulnerable - the reverse of what happened in 2011 in fact. Labour should be looking at winning back this seat and Kirkcaldy next time. Tricia Marwick might prove a lot tougher to shift and after that you're looking outside Fife to Stirling or Clacks and Dunblane, which again are going to be harder for Labour. So in a good year, the list seats might go, but if Labour only pick up two constituencies, they should still have at least one list seat as well. Labour failed to win any lists seats here in 1999 or 2003. It could be argued that if we serious about forming the next Government, we ought to be aiming for that level of performance. |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Sept 10, 2013 12:10:42 GMT
I knew it for Westminster. I was unsure about devolved parliaments because I've never read the full procedural guidance for Holyrood selections. Was certainly discussion on twitter the other night from SEC members and others that this would be AWS. It could be that Dunfermline was going to be AWS in 2016, but that the by-election changes it. I believe the plan for 2016 is to go back to the pairing system used in 1999 (pairing 2 next door targets together. Then the 2 CLPs would meet together and select 1 man and 1 woman. SEC would then allocate the 2 winners to seats in question). I think that the Dunfermline situation *may" have been something like this: the SEC considered to have an early selection because of Walker's problems and so the potential of a vacandy arising before 2016 and so they considered an AWS without having to wait for the full pairing process. However, the by-election came in too early and so they reverted back to traditional by-election rules with open selection. As for list MSPs and their future....I guess Richard Simpson (born in 1942) could retire in 2016. Helen Eadie (1947) could possibly consider vacating Cowdenbeath. |
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johnr
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by johnr on Sept 11, 2013 9:32:59 GMT
Also the date of a council by-election in Dunfermline South ward. Makes sense, and should boost the Labour vote.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 11, 2013 9:52:07 GMT
Also the date of a council by-election in Dunfermline South ward. Makes sense, and should boost the Labour vote. Do you mean boost the vote for the council by-election (but I would have thought that might not work in Labour's favour)? Otherwise, I can't see your logic. The turnout would probably be higher for the parliamentary by-election, so the impact will be that way rather than the council election boosting the vote for the parliamentary one. |
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johnr
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 1,944
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Post by johnr on Sept 11, 2013 11:19:02 GMT
I mean tin terms of the fact that the Labour campaign for the by-election has been out working the streets for some time, while the local SNP campaign has been subdued in comparison.
Of course, I expect the SNP to pick up a bit now the by-election has been called, but Labour certainly have a head start in that part of the constituency.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 11, 2013 15:06:36 GMT
Can't see many backing the LibDems even at that price, tbh.
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johnr
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by johnr on Sept 11, 2013 15:06:39 GMT
I suspect Labour's odds will shorten - almost tempted by that myself.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 22:44:27 GMT
Jim Leishman being approached by all and sundry, wonder if he will have a go?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 23:01:07 GMT
There wiz a seat whur walker sat
Ah beat a Nat and that wiz that.
A poem in the style of Leishman.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Sept 13, 2013 7:42:26 GMT
The deadline to submit an application for Labour selection was yesterday evening. Scotsman reports that Jim Leishman didn't apply. Michael Marra backed down too.
Former Edinburgh Council leader Ewan Aitken is seeking their nomination.
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johnr
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by johnr on Sept 13, 2013 8:11:46 GMT
andrea - Michael Marra didn't back down - he was never interested in this. His goal has always been the north east regional list in 2016.
I have to say I don't know where the rumour about his being a contender for this seat came from - it certainly wasn't from him.
My understanding is that when the SEC meet tomorrow, they will confirm that this is to be all-women short-list.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2013 8:18:58 GMT
The original all woman short list scrapped last week was Councillors Cara Hilton, Lesley Laird and Fiona Yates, daughter of Labour MSP for Cowdenbeath, Helen Eadie.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 10,148
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 13, 2013 8:29:02 GMT
The deadline to submit an application for Labour selection was yesterdat evening. Scotsman reports that Jim Leishman didn't apply. Michael Marra backed down too.
Former Edinburgh Council leader Ewan Aitken is seeking their nomination. Please, no! The idea of Ewan Aitken becoming an MSP is not one that fills me with any joy. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2013 8:40:35 GMT
Think there is going to be a man in white pyjamas candidate fighting the Bedroom tax which is really screwing up a lot of lives, totally feckin bad thing now I see how it is affecting people I know.
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johnr
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 1,944
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Post by johnr on Sept 13, 2013 8:46:05 GMT
The original all woman short list scrapped last week was Councillors Cara Hilton, Lesley Laird and Fiona Yates, daughter of Labour MSP for Cowdenbeath, Helen Eadie. Err, how could there have been a short list last week to be scrapped, when Bill Walker didnt resign until this week? Two SEC members have confirmed to me that its to be AWS, and this will be confirmed tomorrow at the SEC meeting in Glasgow. Plus, how could there be people on that shortlist when the shortlisting meeting has yet to take place? Or are you just talking about names bandied about by the newspapers rather than an actual shortlist? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2013 9:02:31 GMT
The original all woman short list scrapped last week was Councillors Cara Hilton, Lesley Laird and Fiona Yates, daughter of Labour MSP for Cowdenbeath, Helen Eadie. Err, how could there have been a short list last week to be scrapped, when Bill Walker didnt resign until this week? Two SEC members have confirmed to me that its to be AWS, and this will be confirmed tomorrow at the SEC meeting in Glasgow. Plus, how could there be people on that shortlist when the shortlisting meeting has yet to take place? Or are you just talking about names bandied about by the newspapers rather than an actual shortlist? This was the shortlist that was issued on monday and cancelled on Tuesday for open list, short gender war, and will probably be the shortlist issued tomorrow. Pound to a penny these three names will be on the list. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2013 9:05:16 GMT
The Real Michael Marra sings I hate Methil.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Sept 13, 2013 10:50:54 GMT
andrea - Michael Marra didn't back down - he was never interested in this. His goal has always been the north east regional list in 2016. I have to say I don't know where the rumour about his being a contender for this seat came from - it certainly wasn't from him. Michael Marra himself tweeted: Flattered to have my name linked with Labour candidacy for the absolutely vital by-election in Dunfermline. I have been approached by party colleagues and seriously considered standing. Labour needs to put up the most capable candidate in what will be a huge test. On this occasion, more than any, I believe that Labour should select an outstanding female colleague who can work in Holyrood to achieve real gender justice given what has transpired with Walker |
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johnr
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 1,944
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Post by johnr on Sept 13, 2013 11:02:33 GMT
Err, how could there have been a short list last week to be scrapped, when Bill Walker didnt resign until this week? Two SEC members have confirmed to me that its to be AWS, and this will be confirmed tomorrow at the SEC meeting in Glasgow. Plus, how could there be people on that shortlist when the shortlisting meeting has yet to take place? Or are you just talking about names bandied about by the newspapers rather than an actual shortlist? This was the shortlist that was issued on monday and cancelled on Tuesday for open list, short gender war, and will probably be the shortlist issued tomorrow. Pound to a penny these three names will be on the list. I repeat - how can a shortlist have been issued on Monday, when it was Monday that Bill Walker resigned? That may have been the shortlist drawn up by the newspapers - but not the Labour party. |
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johnr
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 1,944
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Post by johnr on Sept 13, 2013 11:03:55 GMT
andrea - Michael Marra didn't back down - he was never interested in this. His goal has always been the north east regional list in 2016. I have to say I don't know where the rumour about his being a contender for this seat came from - it certainly wasn't from him. Michael Marra himself tweeted: Flattered to have my name linked with Labour candidacy for the absolutely vital by-election in Dunfermline. I have been approached by party colleagues and seriously considered standing. Labour needs to put up the most capable candidate in what will be a huge test. On this occasion, more than any, I believe that Labour should select an outstanding female colleague who can work in Holyrood to achieve real gender justice given what has transpired with Walker Which confirms what I said - he never wanted the position, and when approached by party colleagues, considered and rejected it. |
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