Dunfermline

[Deleted]

Anyone watch the Newsnight debate?

[johnr]

Oct 22, 2013 7:48:49 GMT @rlemkin said:

Anyone watch the Newsnight debate?

As I said on twitter last night, everyone said their candidate "won" the debate, meanwhile the 3 undecided Dunfermline voters who happened to be watching still dont know who to vote for. 

[Devonian]

Oct 21, 2013 18:30:06 GMT @boogieeck said:

St Andrews University has enough English Hooray Henrys to get a branch up and running if they moved their vote to the flat daddy bought (and maybe Daddy's vote too). Holiday home enclaves like the East Neuk and Ballater would be fertile ground for postal voters if they got organised.

Also had a look at UKIP's 2010 General Election results in Scotland. In most places they stood they got 1-2% of the vote. Their worst results were in the central belt (they didn't stand a single candidate in Edinburgh). There were 4 constituencies where they got more than 2%. One of them was indeed Fife North East (2.6%). The others were

Falkirk 2.5%

Moray 2.6%

Orkney and Shetland 6.3%

[Deleted]

It might be worth pointing out that the UKIP candidate in Fife North East in 2010 was a sitting local councillor who had been elected as a Conservative, and had also been the Conservative candidate in 2005 and in 2001.

[erlend]

I would predict a Lab hold if not huge. LD fractionally down. Tories about where they started or just up. I assume the Indy from the Scottish Jacobite Party on Negligible, I will say 1% but that may be massively overstated. UKIP just missing the deposit (this has been harder fought than Donside I feel). Greens have a habit of underperforming in byelections so 2.

Lab 34
SNP 32
LD 18
Con 8
UKIP 5
Green 2
Ind 1

[erlend]

And if the LDs underperform on that it will be a bigger Lab majority as people who have deserted the SNP have not gone LD.

[Deleted]

Is there not a residue population from the Anglo settlement of Matelots and Civil Servants that once had a major presence in the area.

[Devonian]

Oct 22, 2013 17:31:54 GMT @benjamin said:

It might be worth pointing out that the UKIP candidate in Fife North East in 2010 was a sitting local councillor who had been elected as a Conservative, and had also been the Conservative candidate in 2005 and in 2001.

Of course having a good local candidate and branch can be important factors.

Looking at the 2011 Scottish parliament elections UKIP stood in three constituencies. They got more than 2% in two of them

Moray 3.5%
North East Fife 3.3%

In the 2012 locals they got more than 5% of first preferences in three wards

Fife - East Neuk and Landward 11.3%
Moray - Speyside Glenlivet 8.9%
Stirling - Forth and Endrick 5.6%

So it seems that the areas that consistantly give UKIP their best results are Moray and North East Fife. Is there some distinct demographic factor these places have in common or might it simply be that they happen to have more effective branches?

[Deleted]

Oct 22, 2013 19:54:33 GMT Devonian said:

Oct 22, 2013 17:31:54 GMT @benjamin said:

It might be worth pointing out that the UKIP candidate in Fife North East in 2010 was a sitting local councillor who had been elected as a Conservative, and had also been the Conservative candidate in 2005 and in 2001.

Of course having a good local candidate and branch can be important factors.

Looking at the 2011 Scottish parliament elections UKIP stood in three constituencies. They got more than 2% in two of them

Moray 3.5%
North East Fife 3.3%

In the 2012 locals they got more than 5% of first preferences in three wards

Fife - East Neuk and Landward 11.3%
Moray - Speyside Glenlivet 8.9%
Stirling - Forth and Endrick 5.6%

So it seems that the areas that consistantly give UKIP their best results are Moray and North East Fife. Is there some distinct demographic factor these places have in common or might it simply be that they happen to have more effective branches?

East Neuk is the aforementioned former Conservative who defected to UKIP and remained a councillor until he lost last year.

[Deleted]

I predict a Labour gain (not hold Mr Erland) and by better than 2%. There will be a boost from the SNP conference of turnout amongst SNP voters, if not by those converted to the cause. If I had to predict (which I don't, but will anyway), then:

Labour 37.7%
SNP 32%
LD 16%
Con 8%
UKIP 3%
Green 3%
Ind 0.3%

[erlend]

Gain of course and you are basically not that far from my guess if as in my later posting the LD vote falls slightly more. I think we can hold off that squeeze but it is a fair guess.

[Deleted]

So it seems that the areas that consistantly give UKIP their best results are Moray and North East Fife.

Read more: vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/3140/dunfermline?page=14&scrollTo=111948#ixzz2iUFhbnbQ

PICTS

[erlend]

Both had a serious RAF vote I note.

[Deleted]

Oct 22, 2013 19:54:33 GMT Devonian said:

So it seems that the areas that consistantly give UKIP their best results are Moray and North East Fife. Is there some distinct demographic factor these places have in common or might it simply be that they happen to have more effective branches?

'Branches' is perhaps a bit of an overstatement, at least in the case of North East Fife. It's more that there's one perennial candidate who happens to have been a councillor until last year.

To be honest, North East Fife is a lot like much of Devon in many ways. Artsy touristy fishing villages, intensive farmland, country houses, retired people, slightly less picturesque inland towns and villages... though with a prestigious university and an RAF base. If you can identify the core UKIP voters in Devon then you might not be that far off finding the sort of people who have voted UKIP in North East Fife.

I'd be stunned if it came mostly from St Andrews though, let alone from St Andrews students.

[No Offence Alan]

Oct 22, 2013 19:54:33 GMT Devonian said:

Oct 22, 2013 17:31:54 GMT @benjamin said:

It might be worth pointing out that the UKIP candidate in Fife North East in 2010 was a sitting local councillor who had been elected as a Conservative, and had also been the Conservative candidate in 2005 and in 2001.

Of course having a good local candidate and branch can be important factors.


So it seems that the areas that consistantly give UKIP their best results are Moray and North East Fife. Is there some distinct demographic factor these places have in common or might it simply be that they happen to have more effective branches?

Military bases.

[Devonian]

Oct 22, 2013 21:42:04 GMT @benjamin said:

To be honest, North East Fife is a lot like much of Devon in many ways. Artsy touristy fishing villages, intensive farmland, country houses, retired people, slightly less picturesque inland towns and villages...

Yep, that sounds exactly like Devon! And there are quite a few UKIP voters in this area, less so in Exeter itself but certainly in the surrounding area. One UKIP councillor was elected in Exmouth this year who had been a paper candidate and who hadn't done any campaigning at all!

If you can identify the core UKIP voters in Devon then you might not be that far off finding the sort of people who have voted UKIP in North East Fife.

That makes sense. People in Devon who have said to me they are UKIP members or supporters- office workers, taxi drivers, a chef, a housewife, a retired carpenter. I also note that both areas are coastal, like many of UKIP's stronger areas in Devon and in the rest of England.

[erlend]

I would define a lot of UKIP's English best areas as run diwn coastal. NE Fife is not that bar the addition of Leven.

[erlend]

Oct 23, 2013 8:29:42 GMT @boogieeck said:

Oct 22, 2013 21:13:17 GMT erlend said:

Both had a serious RAF vote I note.

English.

When Leuchar's goes Army, the UKIP vote will dip a bit, but the BNP vote will drift up from non existent to derisory

I would suggest that the armed forces vote is one of the few that thinks of itself as British/United Kingdomish rather than English. Yes the Scots regiments do Scottish but that is a separate issue.

[Deleted]

Grangemouth to close, nationalised by lunchtime for a few extra votes?

[Deleted]

Oct 23, 2013 9:29:45 GMT erlend said:

Oct 23, 2013 8:29:42 GMT @boogieeck said:

English.

When Leuchar's goes Army, the UKIP vote will dip a bit, but the BNP vote will drift up from non existent to derisory

I would suggest that the armed forces vote is one of the few that thinks of itself as British/United Kingdomish rather than English. Yes the Scots regiments do Scottish but that is a separate issue.

My friend was in the Royal Scots Dragoon Guards, having expected to be in the Royal Tank Regiment, and , being from Rochdale, felt that it was a very British regiment, with heavy Scottish pride.