YouGov Euro Poll

[Sibboleth]

Thinking about this, wasn't it something more like 'but intellectually they are scum'? I'm fairly sure there was another word anyway even if it wasn't 'intellectually'. But the basic tone was the same.

[Pete Whitehead]

I've seen some mention of a Yougov poll putting UKIP on 30% ahead of Labour on 25%. Does anyone know the details? Can't see mention of it on the UKPR site

[Andrew_S]

Sept 16, 2013 17:06:06 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I've seen some mention of a Yougov poll putting UKIP on 30% ahead of Labour on 25%. Does anyone know the details? Can't see mention of it on the UKPR site

It's all over Twitter but can't find a reliable link yet.

[Andrew_S]

Guess what? It's not a poll at all but Peter Kellner's prediction.

[Deleted]

and a fair one at that, I expect Ukip on a turnout of about 25% to get 30% or maybe even 35%.

[Pete Whitehead]

Personally speaking 25% is at the upper end of my expectations and touch and go whetehr we beat Labour with that - difficult due to our relative weakness in London and especially Scotland (to a lesser extent Wales too)

[Deleted]

but Pete balance that up with I expect higher turnouts in parts of the country where you are strong - Kent for example and where UKIP voters are the ones motivated to vote more.

[Pete Whitehead]

The latter point certainly true - differential turnout may help Labour a bit relative to last time as there's local elections in the Met boroughs and London and not in most of our stronger areas (most of Kent for example). Not to say that this means the turnout will be higher in eg Liverpool than it will be in eg Lincolnshire, but it will reduce the differential a bit

[Deleted]

ah I forget the local elections at the same time, the question in the mets is whether people will split vote.

[Deleted]

ah I forget the local elections at the same time, the question in the mets is whether people will split vote between labour and UKIP

[J.G.Harston]

Sept 16, 2013 19:06:01 GMT @ianrobo said:

ah I forget the local elections at the same time, the question in the mets is whether people will split vote between labour and UKIP

In 2004 in Sheffield there was certainly split voting (ref):

Party   Local	Euro
Labour  38.3%	32.28%
LibDem	34.3%	18.52%
Cons	17.7%	14.68%
Green	 7.2%	 7.37%
BNP	 1.3%	 8.19%
UKIP	 0.6%	13.48%
Ind	 0.5%	 0.47%
Soc	 0.2%	 0.97%
Respect	  -	 2.44%
EngDem	  -	 1.58%

Of course, the locals are skewed by only the the top four parties having candidates across the whole city.

[Tony Otim]

I'm amazed how level the Green vote is there - I would have thought it would be a bit higher for the Euros.

[carlton43]

Sept 16, 2013 18:30:58 GMT @ianrobo said:

but Pete balance that up with I expect higher turnouts in parts of the country where you are strong - Kent for example and where UKIP voters are the ones motivated to vote more.

"To vote more"!  Surely that's illegal?