YouGov Euro Poll

[Deleted]

There's an article on the Electoral Reform website (and a comment piece on ConHome) www.electoral-reform.org.uk/blog/to-beat-ukip-change-the-voting-system about some polling they commissioned from YouGov for the Euros:
Con 23
Lab 30
LD 10
UKIP 25
Green 12

8000 sample. There's no room for SNP/PC or Others in those figures - if you look at the research paper linked to from the ERS piece, it's based on a 'ballot paper' with candidates from each of those 5 parties, but no one else, and nothing on YouGov that I can see with more breakdowns.

So, not a voodoo poll, but certainly not a standard methodology.

[Deleted]

Say it was true ... then Labour would be delighted at that, UKIP disappointed not to top and Tories and LD I think expecting it.

[froome]

An interesting poll.

I assume the 8000 sample are all English voters, otherwise not including SNP?PC does make it a voodoo poll.

The 'others' in European elections tend to receive quite a large vote between them, as many voters use these elections as a way of protesting, so this could distort any actual polling.

The actual split between Lab, UKIP and Con looks to me to be a fairly likely outcome were the elections to be held now.

Greens receiving 12% is very encouraging (and surprising). Potentially that could mean several more MEPs to the 2 we already have, as for some regions a vote somewhere near 12% is likely to be the figure at which the last MEP may be elected.

[Deleted]

I saw the poll the other day and tried to add it to the wiki page, but the nutters on there object to having the Greens listed in the polling section..

[Deleted]

Jul 30, 2013 8:03:07 GMT froome said:

An interesting poll.

Greens receiving 12% is very encouraging (and surprising). Potentially that could mean several more MEPs to the 2 we already have, as for some regions a vote somewhere near 12% is likely to be the figure at which the last MEP may be elected.

I make it 7 Green MEPs on those figures.

[Devonian]

Jul 30, 2013 11:43:34 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Jul 30, 2013 8:03:07 GMT froome said:

An interesting poll.

Greens receiving 12% is very encouraging (and surprising). Potentially that could mean several more MEPs to the 2 we already have, as for some regions a vote somewhere near 12% is likely to be the figure at which the last MEP may be elected.

I make it 7 Green MEPs on those figures.

Out of interest which regions do you think those 7 would be in?

[Pete Whitehead]

Presumably it would be all English regions except the North East and East Midlands (unless these figures deliver a second seat in London). Its not going to happen anyway. I doubt they will gain any seats but if they do it will be no more than one or two

[Deleted]

I agree with Pete - it's not going to happen! But that's because we won't get 12% nationally, not because 12% wouldn't deliver the seats.

I make it 2 in the South East, 1 in each of East, London, North West, South West, and Yorks & the Humber. In South East and Yorks & the Humber the Greens would get the last seat. I would be interested to see Scottish figures based on a similar polling methodology as 6 seats gives room for some flexibility on winners, whereas Wales with only 4 is much less likely to see change.

[Devonian]

Jul 30, 2013 16:08:23 GMT @trident said:

I think the Euro elections are actually as much a hazard as an opportunity for UKIP, because expectations of their performance have become so inflated. If they were to get 25% of the vote and second place, it would be a great result for them - but it is now taken as read by much of the commentariat that UKIP will top the poll, so the headlines would be about the UKIP bubble bursting.

I had also thought that. I had been wondering why UKIP were talking up the possibility of coming first so much when it has the obvious risk you mention. I think however there are a couple of reasons for doing so.

Firstly people who like to be on 'the winning side' quite a few people will be more likely to vote UKIP if they think it will be first so that they can say to themselves that they voted for the winning party. Not very rational but there you go.

Secondly the way things are looking now, barring any dramatic changes (always possible), there will be a two horse race for first place between UKIP and Labour. By talking up their chances they will encourage the media to adopt a narrative during the elections of 'Who will be first UKIP or Labour?' Such a narrative would of course serve the interests of both parties.

For UKIP it would mean not only more coverage for them but crucially less coverage for Tories and Lib Dems. Furthermore it means that they would be able to start to use the 'wasted vote' argument against the Tories. They could say 'If you don't want Labour to come first don't waste your vote on the Conservatives vote UKIP'.

Labour, I think would also have every interest in going along with this narrative. Because it would boost interest in their campaign but more particularly because using the arguments  'If you don't want UKIP to win vote Labour' and 'Labour can win' will boost their turnout and gain them votes from other parties.

Or I could be reading far too much into this and the UKIP leadership are simply making their tactics up as they go along as usual. What do you think?

[Deleted]

Other's outside the parties mentioned in this survey got around 15% in 2009, so I knocked that of each figure and we get:

Con 19.5%
Lab 25.5%
LD 8.5%
UKIP 21.25%
Green 10.2%

[Deleted]

Jul 30, 2013 17:35:54 GMT @rlemkin said:

Other's outside the parties mentioned in this survey got around 15% in 2009, so I knocked that of each figure and we get:

Con 19.5%
Lab 25.5%
LD 8.5%
UKIP 21.25%
Green 10.2%

But if you just pro rata everyone, it makes no difference under d'hondt, the important thing is if one party loses disproportionately to minors


Sent from my C6603 using proboards

[Pete Whitehead]

Those figures look pretty plausible although 'others' should probably getr below 15% because the BNP bubble has well and truly burst and that accounted for a fair chunk of that in 2009.

[Andrew_S]

Interesting that opponents of UKIP are so concerned about the party's potential vote in the 2014 Euro elections that they are seriously proposing changing the system with less than 12 months to go in order to reduce their chances.

[The Bishop]

Who is actually "proposing" this, though?

[Crimson King]

Jul 30, 2013 18:25:19 GMT Andrew_S said:

Interesting that opponents of UKIP are so concerned about the party's potential vote in the 2014 Euro elections that they are seriously proposing changing the system with less than 12 months to go in order to reduce their chances.

do tell

[Devonian]

Jul 30, 2013 19:18:32 GMT Crimson King said:

Jul 30, 2013 18:25:19 GMT Andrew_S said:

Interesting that opponents of UKIP are so concerned about the party's potential vote in the 2014 Euro elections that they are seriously proposing changing the system with less than 12 months to go in order to reduce their chances.

do tell

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/european-parliament-elections-ukip-threat-reduced-in-new-system-8730105.html

David Cameron's best hope of seeing his Conservatives beat the UK Independence Party (Ukip) into third place in next year's European Parliament elections may hinge on changing the voting system so voters can choose eurosceptic Tory candidates, according to a study published today.

Under the "closed list" system used for Euro-elections in the UK, which asks voters to mark their X next to the name of their preferred party, Ukip looks set to come second behind Labour next May - with some commentators even predicting a surge into first place.

But polling carried out for the London School of Economics and the Electoral Reform Society found that Tories could turn the tables on Nigel Farage's party under the alternative "open list" system, which allows voters to choose individual candidates on a party slate.

The YouGov survey suggested that the change - which would allow eurosceptic voters to pick and choose the candidates from mainstream parties whose views best reflect their own - could be worth five points to the Conservatives, leapfrogging them past Ukip, whose support could drop by as many as six points.

Professor Simon Hix, head of the LSE's Department of Government, said the current system encourages eurosceptics to register a protest by giving their vote to Ukip.

"Our poll shows that if the voting system were changed to an open-list system, many voters would switch their support," said Prof Hix. "In particular, many eurosceptic voters would support a eurosceptic Conservative candidate rather than vote for Ukip. Under the current system, in contrast, the fact you have to vote for a party rather than an individual encourages eurosceptics to protest against the three mainstream parties."

Some 30% of British adults questioned by YouGov said they would back Labour if the European elections were held tomorrow under the closed list system, against 25% for Ukip, 23% Conservative, 12% Green and 10% Liberal Democrat.

By contrast, if the open list system was used, Labour would receive the backing of 31%, Tories 28%, Ukip 19%, Lib Dems 12% and Greens 10%.

Katie Ghose, chief executive of the Electoral Reform Society, said: "This research shows the huge effect of giving people a real choice at elections.

"Clearly, more eurosceptics would choose the Conservatives over Ukip if they could pick an actual candidate rather than the party's pre-ordained selection. If the Conservatives were to let people, rather than parties, choose their European representatives, they could do a lot better in the polls.

"There is still time to move from a closed-list to an open-list system before the 2014 election. The Conservative Party should take note. Give people more choice, and it could serve you well."

Open-list systems are used in European Parliament elections in 18 of the 28 EU nations. Unlike the rest of the UK, Northern Ireland has used the single transferable vote system, where voters rank individual candidates in order of preference.

* YouGov interviewed 8,000 people between June 26 and July 5.

Notice the tone of Katie Ghose's comments

There is still time

[Deleted]

Yawn

[Crimson King]

Jul 30, 2013 18:38:59 GMT The Bishop said:

Who is actually "proposing" this, though?

so the answer is - no one is proposing anything. Not 'opponents of UKIP', It appears that the ERS who unsurprisingly favour open over closed lists, are hinting that Conservative self interest might favour a change

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 30, 2013 19:48:30 GMT Devonian said:

Notice the tone of Katie Ghose's comments

There is still time

[/quote]

look at the woman's biography on Wiki en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katie_Ghose
It looks like the writers from Viz have created the perfect caricature of an elite middle class metropolitan leftie. She looks the part as well - crop haired, humourless, sanctimonious etc. Where do they find these fucking people?? I wish they would stop

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 30, 2013 20:16:30 GMT Crimson King said:

Jul 30, 2013 18:38:59 GMT The Bishop said:

Who is actually "proposing" this, though?

so the answer is - no one is proposing anything. Not 'opponents of UKIP', It appears that the ERS who unsurprisingly favour open over closed lists, are hinting that Conservative self interest might favour a change

Well yes an opponent of UKIP as you would expect a prospective Labour party candidate who "served as Director of the British Institute of Human Rights..., was a Commissioner on the Independent Asylum Commission from 2006-2008 and has been chair of two charities, Asylum Aid and Bail for Immigration Detainees" to be. somehow I don't think she has the self-interest of the Conservative party at heart do you?